It's the time of year when everyone is suddenly an expert on NCAA basketball. That dipshit down the hall from human resources who couldn't spell UCLA is suddenly waxing poetic on how Weber State's backcourt is a great match up for the Bruins as long as they don't get into early foul trouble. Thanks to ESPN, USA Today, and a bunch of other "experts" looking to create an angle on these first round games, there is a whole lot of misinformation out there. The savvy wagerer will look to two key components as they head into the abyss this weekend.
Take a look at the road record. A bunch of these low seeds in the tournament have losing records on the road, and got fat playing poor competition at home. If they didn't win on the road during the regular season, how do you think they're going to sack up on national TV without their a-hole home fans doing their special little cheers? That's right, they're going to look like deer in the headlights like George Washington and Stanford did today.
Look at the free throw percentage. A bad free throw shooting team can't put teams away (and therefore cover spreads) while good free throw shooting teams can just sort of hang around. How many times have you seen a 7.5 point spead that seemed easy just sit at around single digits for the entire second half? Next thing you know the favorite misses a couple free throws at the end, plays weak D to prevent 3 point plays, and they win by 5 (and you lose).
With that in mind, I've got a couple winners for you tomorrow. Take UNLV +2 over GA Tech. Ga Tech is attrocious on the road, and UNLV looks like they could be for real. Oregon at -7.5 doesn't seem like enough points to me. I saw Miami of OH play twice last week, and it's not a very impressive team. They are a team of grinders, but that's not going to be enough against a superior team athletically like Oregon. By the way, Oregon has quietly become the Miami Huricanes of the Pacific Northwest. I bet half the guys on that team can't even read. Every other week a guy from the football team gets arrested for shooting up Eugene while high on crank. Sometimes they even have to sit out a game afterwards too. You think Miami of OH can run with that kind of program? I don't.
Big Wins: Virginia Commonwealth...I told anyone that would listen that Duke was going down in flames. With 7.5 points, this one was a no brainer. Louisville...Stanford had no place in this tournament, and they sure showed it. What a pathetic showing! The school should make those kids pay their own airfare home. Butler...when those spindly white guys hit their threes they're tough to beat. However, he who lives by the three will die by the three. When they run up against someone that can play defense on the perimeter, they're done.
Big Losses: The overrated Maryland came up with a couple big turnovers down the stretch to cover the seven vs Davidson. That one stung. I was ready to strut around like a Prince with that winner.
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