As we continue to spiral through the inconsequential college Bowl season, it becomes evident how unpredictable each of these games truly are. Wisconsin, Big 10 also ran, knocked the crap out Miami for no apparent reason at all. Bowling Green (they were good enough to play in a Bowl?) lost a game last night 127-126 or something like that. With these games only serving the purpose of being fodder for the degenerate gambling community, it's hard to get an angle on the vibe of the teams. The questions you must ask yourself are these:
Does this team care if they win? This is the key question. Did the college kids on this team show up to get a final win for their seniors, pride, and legacy of the school? Or did they come to a warm climate to eat some free meals, get free gift bags, and try not to get hurt? Are the players paid assassins for Pompous U. or do they actually care? Miami, perfect example, has a long tradition of producing players that can't even read and write. Do you think they care if they win the Tostitos Holiday Bowl? No fucking way. They'll show up for the BCS Championship Game, but not the Progressive Insurance Emerald Bowl.
Does the team have a bunch of NFL caliber players that want to improve their draft standing? This is huge. If the players think NFL scouts are viewing this game as a showcase, and they can move up from being a #6 pick in Tampa to a #3 in Dallas, these guys will kill their opponent. Wouldn't you? You move up the draft, it's worth half a million to multi millions of signing bonus money. This is why I like Virginia Tech tonight -5.5 by the way. They'll put any sociopath on the field for a chance to win. In exchange some of these border line criminals go to the NFL.
Will people actually be watching the game? If you're in the Rose Bowl, you know 50 kazillion people will be stretched out in sweat pants on their couch watching. Meanwhile if you are 6-6 Minnesota playing 6-6 Iowa State in the Insight Bowl shown on the NFL Network at 6pm, you may not be as fired up. (As an aside, who wins this one in the ratings? That game or 30 Minute Meals with Rachel Ray?)
Is the coach a tyrant or a "good guy"? If the coach is no nonsense he'll keep the team focused on the game, and make the players miserable. There will be no fun. Bed check at 9pm. Big guys in sport coats at team dinners where no one smiles. The "good guy" lets the team take part in all the zippity doo dah fun times around the event. The "good guy" lets the team go to the amusement park and live it up. The "good guy" is also known as a "loser". That's why I like Penn State -2.5. Paterno and his staff are 500 times the coaches those rubes from LSU are and will win despite the fact LSU probably has better players.
I also like the UNDER in the Auburn/Northwestern game. Auburn has gone under the total in their last 9 Bowl appearances. Why not 10? I'll also take Florida -12.5 over Cincinnati. The SEC has to be 12.5 points better than the Big East, right? And with the game in the south, it's going to be all those annoying Gator chomping crackers going crazy. Florida State +2.5 is interesting. If you're feeling especially randy, take the otherwise mediocre Seminoles as they play well in the post season.
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