This is my favorite gambling day of the year. Sure, March Madness is awesome, but I actually know something about the teams I am betting on today. Well, better put, I think I know a few things about these teams. With the Saturday 430 kickoff, it lays out perfectly to fill my home with some of my real degenerate friends that have no problem settling in for a day of heavy beer drinking and wild irresponsible wagering. Last year a guy so overextended himself on a late game loser, he openly spoke of "stringing himself up in the shower" when he got home. It's a glorious day.
The first game is two teams that will immediately be eliminated in the next round, no matter who wins. Houston will start one armed Yates at QB over Jake Delomme, probably because Delomme may have already fumbled the ball or tossed a pick six. Houston wins by playing good defense and running the ball. I think today they will try to play good defense and run the ball. (You see what an expert I am?) That means the game should go UNDER 38. Will the Bengals win this one on the road? If ever there was a scenario for them to do so, this would be it. They haven't beaten a winning team all year, so why would they now? The Bengals are young, this is their first time in the Playoffs, and they are on the road. No thanks. The spread has moved to four, which is a number I really don't care for. I am going to sack up and take Houston to win on the money line at -200.
New Orleans is red hot, and it seems like every media outlet has anointed them the Super Bowl champion already. It's amazing how quickly Green Bay has been forgotten after their one loss. Two weeks ago they lose at KC, and suddenly it's as if everyone forgot they went 15-1 while lighting the Lions up for 50 points with their backup quarterback last week. Still, I get it. New Orleans does look like a real buzzsaw. The common thinking is that the Saints will score 50 today and the Lions will be the Lions. In my heart of hearts, I know this to be true. The Lions will self destruct, and embarrass themselves on national TV. They will fall apart, guys will be ejected for sticking shivs in the sides of Saint linemen, and some guy in silver facepaint will be shown looking dejected in the fourth quarter. This is why I believe the time tested "counter selection" method needs to be applied here. I am taking Detroit +10.5 and hoping for some backdoor meaningless touchdown late for the cover. I have no rationale other than if the rest of America thinks the Saints will win big, it isn't going to happen. If you are playing for that Lion cover, you might as well go on the OVER too. It's at an all time NFL Playoff high of 59.5 too. God help me.
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