Nurse the Hate: NFL Week 12

I was standing confidently on the top of gambling’s version of Mount Olympus yesterday.  The early football games and multiple college basketball games had gone exactly as I had expected.  Multiple bets intertwined with each other in a confusing, yet absurdly profitable labyrinth.  I was quite smug as I sipped at champagne nestled in by the fire mentally counting my windfall.  I began to do google searches for such topics as “private jet rentals” and “Provence France vineyard opportunities”.   A wild seven team parlay was falling together with a ridiculous 23,710-1 payoff.  “Early retirement calculator” was an easy find on the web.  I felt confident.  Giddy even.  This is exactly the sort of attitude the displeases The Sports Gambling Gods.

Having a potential Southern French villa purchase tied into an event known as “The Egg Bowl” is not the traditional path to premium real estate ownership.  The Egg Bowl is the annual college football grudge match between Mississippi State and Ole Miss in which old scores are settled and arguments wage for years.  I had almost no prior knowledge about either team with the exception of knowing both programs were more crooked than a Reno Nevada gas station slot machine.  Each has placed themselves into a self-induced sanction of “no bowl games” with the obvious intention of hoping the NCAA doesn’t nose around their obviously amoral athletic programs and hit them with real punishments.  As I recall, one of the programs had been purchasing prostitutes for the players and the other openly handed out big envelopes of cash in the locker room after games.  It is Mississippi after all…

I had placed my faith in Mississippi State, ranked #14, as they were heavily favored and appeared to be the least concerned about following the basic NCAA rules.  That usually leads to short term gains and college football victories.  What I did not count on was the horrifying injury pictured above knocking out Mississippi State’s QB and best player.  This is what is referred to in gambling circles as a “devastating development” and “very bad news”.  Just like that, my dreams of my Southern French idyllic oasis had vanished.  It is probably for the best as I not only cannot speak French, but cannot pronounce anything in the language correctly even if drilled repeatedly.  There was an incident in a Bordeaux gas station once when I asked for directions to the train station.  I was aware that I was asking for “Gare Saint Jean”.  Even though I was armed with the facts, it made no difference as none of the folks in the convenient store could figure out that the American hillbilly asking for “Gar Saint Gene” in hard consonants was looking for “Gah Sah Jah”.  Easy come, easy go.

I will get right back on the horse on Sunday.  I have learned the lesson I learn each holiday when I construct the Galaxy of Wagers that it is generally a bad idea to gamble on things in which you have absolutely no information on.  I know this will not prevent me from gambling heavily on the meaningless NBA Christmas games.  If someone could remind me on Christmas morning, I would appreciate it.  I still have the illusion I know about the NFL though, so I am getting back in the mix.  Let’s get in there…

I am betting against the Browns.  I should have stacked heavy wagers against the Browns all year, but the taint of failure surrounding the team is so strong I assume it will strike my betting slips too.  I need to step away from that superstitious nonsense.  The Sports Gambling Gods frown on superstition.  The Browns are 2-8 against the spread.  They are reliably awful.  They cannot score points because they forgot to sign any good offensive players.  Yes, I know the Bengals are a subpar team, but this is the Browns we are talking about.  They have lost to the Bengals six times in a row.  Despite this probably being a low scoring game, I’m taking the Bengals -8.     

The Indianapolis Colts have quietly become a legitimate NFL franchise again.  They have been largely competitive week to week, but are so far below the radar of the average fan it is assumed they are the same as the Browns/49ers/Giants.  I am not suggesting that this team is very good, but I am saying there is good value with them at home getting points.  I especially like them against a mediocre Tennessee Titan team that looks like it is fading fast.  Tennessee is 0-6 in their last six trips to the RCA Dome.  They are 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games against the Colts.  I did a little research here!  The home team usually covers in this matchup.  These are teams going the opposite way.  Tennessee has failed to cover in their last four games and the Colts have covered their last three in a row.  I’m going with the trend.  Indianapolis +3.5

Season Record 13-14-1