Nurse the Hate: NFL Week One

Week one of the NFL means the official start of Gambling Season for me.  I absolutely love betting on NFL games.  It’s like a weekly puzzle to solve while also undeniably providing me with the false sense of purpose.  As my plan to become the Baron of Tasmanian Sparkling Wine in the late 1800s has hit a snag, I now need to provide focus on the dream of one massive windfall thanks to an otherwise meaningless late field goal by the Texans.  We all have dreams.  I am going to need cash to fulfill my destiny as the melancholy man in the exquisitely tailored suit smoking cigarettes in a stately Hong Kong hotel lobby bar.  I guess I’d have to start smoking too, which seems counter intuitive for a man of my now advanced years.  I can worry about that later I guess.  First I need to string together a few winners if I’m going to wander around grand old hotels in Asia.  Hong Kong ain't cheap, and neither are those tailored suits.  I'm going three piece too, so I can put a pocket watch in my vest.  "Heavens, look at the time.  Have Kwan fetch my trunks.  Call The Peninsula and have them reserve my table.  I'm hoping to dine with My Muse this evening."   That scenario has to be better than selling TV spots in Ohio.

Let’s discuss the Browns game this Sunday.  I was privy to an interoffice email from a stocky yet energetic TV weatherman in which he described the weather bearing down on the Browns v Steelers game Sunday afternoon as “the worst forecast I have seen for a game in my 16 years here including snow events.  I have no idea how anyone will be able to sit in the stands, much less play a football game.  Expect 4-5 inches of rain and 20-40 mph gusts.” 

First, let’s go on record and say it is never a good idea to attend a Browns game in person as the stands are filled with dangerous alcoholic degenerates each attempting to see how low they can set the bar for basic human behavior.  I’m surprised that most of the end zone sections don’t spend the game making guttural noises and throwing feces at each other like chimpanzees.  To spend three hours doing that in a Biblical rain storm?  No thanks.  Beyond that basic point, it is important to note that wind, not rain or snow, is the strongest indication of low scoring football.  You can’t throw it accurately in the wind, which means lots of running plays, which means short gains, which also means the clock keeps running. 

When I received that weather email I immediately excused myself from a meeting to load up on the BROWNS UNDER 44.5 and contacted many of my associates to urge them to do the same.  That line has already moved to 41.5 as of Friday late afternoon, and I suspect will continue to drop when The Public learns of our fate here in NE Ohio.  While you all are trying to find a high point total today, I will be building an ark in preparation of building the New World with my winnings.

I am going to take the Bengals.  Not only that, I am going to take the Bengals on the road, give up the points and take the money line.  This is normally an indication that a person has gone mad.  I will admit that the winds have picked up here and the constant battering against the house have taken a toll on my nerves.  I may have gone quite mad, but hear me out.  Public opinion has decided the Bengals are now awful.  They are not awful, but in fact dwell in that NFL Middle Class of teams that will hover between 7-9 wins.  Meanwhile, I am not sold on Andrew Luck being 100% healthy.  The Colts had great difficulty moving the ball in the preseason, and the Bengals roll in with a solid defense.  I just don’t see a guy playing his first real game in 2 years being able to score enough against a Cincinnati team that has legitimate skill position players.  My concern is that Marvin Lewis tries to get cute with the coaching, but at +140 it’s worth a flier.  This all could be madness induced from The Winds though, so caveat emptor.  Cincinnati money line +140.

Each season it is assumed that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl.  I believe that is because the Patriots have won the AFC East every year since the horseless carriage was introduced by Thomas Edison shortly after he landed at Plymouth Rock.  It’s true.  Look it up.  However, this is a team that is not great out of the gate.  They have won 65% of their September games while notching a crisp 85% of December games in the Brady era.  The Hoodie figures out what his team can and can’t do early in the year.  That’s why I love the Texans +6.5.  It’s week one so Deshaun Watson isn’t hurt yet.  The Texans had the #5 offense in football with Watson at QB last year.  When anyone but Watson is QB, they dropped to dead last.  Eventually the Texans will have their dreams crushed when Watson gets horribly mangled and Brandon Weeden comes in to perform The Full Weeden, but for now, they should be a good team.  This game seems like a FG will decide it to me, so I’m taking the points.  Houston +6.5