Nurse the Hate: NFL WIn Totals Bets 2018

I have had great success betting season win totals in the NFL.  It's one of my few skills.  The key in these bets is looking for teams that have too much hype, or had too many things break their way in the previous season.  Human nature runs towards people believing that whatever happened in the past will repeat itself, and in something as chaotic as football, that is rarely the case.  There is great pleasure to be had in identifying a team that will underperform and then revel in weekly failure from that team. I enjoy smugly watching a team I don’t care about lose, inching me ever closer towards a financial windfall.        

One of these teams is the Buffalo Bills.  I have no idea what the fuck they are doing in Buffalo.  They cut Tyrod Taylor with no real plan at QB.  They sign AJ McCarron.  They then draft “the project QB” Allen, who looks dodgy at best.  They then trade McCarron to presumably hand the offense to that guy Peterman that tossed five interceptions in the first half of his only start last year.  This does not fill me with great confidence that the front office has a plan beyond daily gut reaction.  Their GM must be an off the rails coke dealer.  Hell, they gave the Browns a draft pick for a guy that demonstrably can’t catch and cut him two weeks later.  Now they’re on the hook to Coleman for 3 million too.  Does this seem like a team poised for success?  Buffalo UNDER 6 wins.

Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis must not have any close friends to let him know how absurd his haircut looks.  If he had friends they also would have stopped him from giving TV personality Jon Gruden $100 million dollars to coach.  Am I the only one that noticed that Gruden won that Super Bowl 16 years ago with Tony Dungy’s guys?  He’s been doing Hooters ads and screaming into TV mics creating his “brand” while the NFL has marched on.  Meanwhile the Raiders have gotten back to their bread and butter of signing players from the scratch n' dent bin as opposed to replenishing the roster with young talent.  I’m not sure why they didn’t want to spend on Mack, arguably the best defensive player in the league, when their defense completely sucks.  It seems inevitable that the draft picks they got from Chicago for Mack will turn into a speedy receiver that will catch 11 passes in two dreadful seasons and a kicker.  I’m not sure who besides Cooper will make a play on offense.  The Raiders have to play KC/SD/Denver twice and they’ll go 1-5 against that lineup.  This is a gimme.  Raiders UNDER 8 wins.

No one has ever lost money betting against the Browns.  There is an unreal amount of optimism about the Browns.  This is fool’s gold.  The Browns have secured some legitimate NFL players on the roster, which is a complete novelty in Northeast Ohio.  The sentiment appears to be that since there are some legit players, the team will flourish.  I would like to point out that this team has gone 1-31 in the last two years, and improvement is relative.  They will be competitive in streaks, but only if they remain freakishly healthy and Hue Jackson stays out of the mix.  I am convinced that Hue Jackson could take the 85 Bears and go 7-9.  He is an awful coach and will probably be ousted in a coup d’etat by his hard ass assistants by Halloween.  Tyrod Taylor was cut loose from the Bills despite them having no legitimate option at QB.  Yet, NE Ohio seems to believe that the Browns signed Steve Young.  Taylor will be injured or on the bench by Week 6.  Don’t let the glow of HBO’s Hard Knocks fool you.  This is a team in the bottom third of the league where 5-11 will seem like a Super Bowl season but will still give you a winning ticket.  Browns UNDER 6 wins.