Nurse the Hate: NFL Locks Week 1

I don’t care for Florida.  I have never cared for Florida.  Florida to me means eating subpar seafood at an overpriced restaurant named something annoying like “Captain McSwabby’s”.  Florida is always sitting underneath an air conditioner blowing 52 degree air on you like a jet engine despite having gone to significant effort to travel there FOR the heat.  Florida is a strip plaza with a nail salon, mobile phone store and beer store that only seems to sell Miller Lite and cigarettes.  Florida is poorly built homes ready to blow over at the first sign of a storm.  Florida is where all the silt of America goes to find refuge when they need to bug out of their own town.  It’s easy to root against Florida and especially Miami, a town of cheap disco culture and imminent violence. 

I am going to take “a position” on the Baltimore Ravens to cover over the Dolphins.  The Dolphins were not supposed to be very good.  Then, with a week prior to the season, they traded away their best tackle, a starting wide receiver and a starting linebacker for “picks”.  They have two QBs, Josh Rosen who they traded a #2 pick for, who could not beat out career journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is starting until he gets killed.  The offense is bereft of skilled position players, and I can’t ever recall having to use the word “bereft” in a sports post prior to this.  The Dolphins are deliberately tanking the season, which is unfortunate as it’s not like they will draft well next year anyway.  They look like a team that deserves strong consideration in taking an UNDER on their season win total of 4.5.  I’d like to remind you that Brandon Weedon won 6 games as an NFL starter, so that’s saying something.

Baltimore is going to contend to win the NFL North.  I’m not sure if Lamar Jackson will turn out to be their answer at QB, but he should be enough to score more than a touchdown difference over a Miami team that will be referred to as “the fucking Dolphins” by anyone in South Florida that is even paying attention.  This game will be a rumor more than an event witnessed by anyone in person.  Baltimore -6.5.     

The people of Cleveland are in a state of mass bliss that has nestled into delusion involving the Browns.  The widespread belief is that the team is going to the Playoffs, and probably to the SuperBowl where they will run through the opposition like a buzzsaw.  Quick reminder...  This team had a losing record last year and their best quality win was either over a subpar Denver team or the tie to Pittsburgh.  Prize acquisition Odell Beckham has already been suggesting his hip isn't right and he's "never dealt with something like this" despite missing 14 games in the last two years.  The offensive line is such a mess that they made a trade with the woeful Buffalo Bills for a guard they were likely going to cut.  I think that guy is now starting.  The Browns are also 1-18-1 in their last 20 openers.  This week they are favored by 5.5 over the Tennessee Titans, only the second time this decade they have been favored by more than 5.  Maybe Lady Luck smiles on the Browns this year, but I'd rather assume the worst.  It's always been profitable when it comes to the Browns.  Tennessee +5.5   

I'm so giddy about football starting that I'm even going to make a teaser bet.  These are generally referred to as "sucker bets", so it's good to really embrace a season of NFL gambling right out of the gate with one of these.  I'm going to take Dallas -1 over the Giants.  I'm not sold on Dallas being a great team, but I am sold on them beating the Giants.  The Giants have the odor of a team that will be a disaster and have the New York media feasting on their carcass by October.  Eli will have been discarded like a used paper cup and that kid they drafted from Duke will be running for his life in front of the jeering crowd.  I am going to pair this up with Carolina +8.5 over the Rams.  Quick fact.  The loser of the Super Bowl is 3-16-1 against the spread in the opener over the last 20 years.  I should probably just take Carolina straight up, but losing this "sure thing" bet on the Dallas end will be more fun.  Dallas-1/Carolina +8.5