There was a period of time when I had season tickets to the Browns. My roommate shortly after college and I had four seats in the Dawg Pound. This was the real Dawg Pound, not the corporate sanitized version that exists now as a profit driving section of the facility with focus group tested cartoon logo. This was when the dregs of Northeast OH sat in those seats because they were cheapest. They were cheapest because they were backless wooden benches that were almost totally exposed to the always howling Canadian winds. There was one small men’s room for 10,000 really drunk dudes. People romanticize it now, but it would never fly in today's cushy fan "experiences". There was drinking and fighting and barfing and arguing and yelling and more drinking. It was exciting when I was 24. I felt like part of something. This was before I got to look behind the curtain of pro sports and realized the whole thing is a cash grab and I was The Mark.
I remember one Monday night game where one of our mutual friends broke his ankle playing catch in the parking lot and still went to the game. I think he felt like if the players manned up and played the game injured it was the least he could do. Even though he downed a heroic number of beers and healthy slugs from a wine skin of bourbon, I recall he got carried out in the 4th quarter. I’m sure the Browns lost. They lost every big game I have ever attended. I have almost no good memories of being at Browns games.
When the Browns “returned” in 1999, I started working for the team in third party positions selling sponsorship and advertising packages. Whatever company I was working for at the time had access to tickets, and I usually hosted clients 2-3 times a year. That was great at first, but after that first decade of losing, it became a chore to stand around and make small talk while watching a Jeff Garcia/Brady Quinn/Colt McCoy/Charlie Frye/etc. led team get pasted. In the 20 years the team has been “back”, I think I have only attended four wins. Sure, they’ve won 63 games in those 20 years, but I’ve only seen four of them. I always seemed to be the guy that was at Steelers/Ravens/Broncos games. It seems impossible, but I think my personal record at Browns games since 1999 is probably something like 4-36.
Yet, even after all this reinforcement of futility and failure, I think they are going to win this Sunday over Houston. Please do not mistake me for a homer for these Cleveland Browns. I firmly believe that they are going to flame out and somehow miss the Playoffs despite being 5-3 with the Giants/Jets/Jacksonville/Eagles on the back half of the schedule. Still, I do feel good about their chances on Sunday. There are a few factors playing to their advantage.
The weather is going to be windy and shitty. This should be a slightly lesser version of the crap that blew in against the Raiders a couple weeks back. The Browns get to play a dome team in conditions they just went though which will favor a running team. The Texans do not run the ball well, and their best back (David Johnson) is out. That will leave scat back Duke Johnson as the primary ball carrier. Meanwhile unlike two weeks ago the Browns will have their best back and best lineman back in the starting lineup., as well as a healthy Myles Garrett.
The Texans are a veteran team used to winning. They are sitting at 2-6 with Romeo Crennell at the helm. That has to be a drag. Look, these guys know the season is lost. They are going to come out and play hard, but it is asking a lot for them to beat a Browns team off a loss in these same conditions and now coming rested off a bye. The Texans just aren't very good and the Browns need this game. I will take a shot on Cleveland -3.
The most difficult wagers are the ones that are terrifying. The only chance to win at NFL gambling is to take horrifying underdogs and white knuckle it through spreads that seem too thin. You have to buy low when teams are at their public perception lowest. I present to you the horrifically depleted San Francisco 49ers. It is hard to imagine that this team was a few minutes away from winning a Super Bowl last year. They have so many guys hurt that I could probably get a try out in the defensive backfield. Between you and me, I don't think I would do well. I'm not quite as "physical" as most of the guys that do that for a living. The Niners were poised to be the team of the 2020s. What happened? All the buzz now is that they are going to blow this team up and start over again. Jimmy G was The Man. Now he might get cut loose and be scrambling to become a backup for the Jags. The NFL is cruel.
The poor Niners have to play the Saints, fresh off completely destroying the anointed by God Tampa Bucs. The Saints stock has never been higher. The Niners have never been lower. This is the spot you look for all year. This seems like a game where the Saints take a breather after that big Tampa win. Look, this thing could go horribly south, but you have to do what you have to do. Take a chance. San Francisco +10.
With the same mindset I am taking Carolina +5.5 over Tampa. I usually avoid all the ESPN/Fox Sports national talk shows all week, but I know what the narrative is on this game. “Brady got embarrassed on national TV. He is going to get payback. Ye shall see a terrible vengeance stuck down on thy Panthers of thy Carolinas.”
I don’t buy it. Brady is a 47 year old QB. 47 year old QBs have bad games. They tend to have worse games after getting hit a bunch of times by 300 pound dudes on the other team. Here’s the thing…. The QB to focus in on here is Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy is 22-5 ATS as an underdog. The Panthers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. I watched this Panthers team three times in the last month scrap and claw in 4th quarters where most other teams with their pedigree would have given up. I don’t think Carolina wins this game, but 5.5 is too many to give these guys at home. Carolina +5.5
I screwed up last week and took Arizona. I wanted to believe. The Cardinals are going to be good, but they aren’t good yet. They are in that Browns/Chargers/Colts middle class of the NFL, capable of winning or losing any game at any time. Buffalo is one of the elite teams in the AFC. Take away their injuries in the defensive backfield and I think they could have won the AFC. Who knows. With covid and “uncertain times”, anything can still happen for the Bills. We don’t need them to win the AFC this week, just not lose to the Cardinals by three points or more. Buffalo +2.5
People sure love themselves some Russell Wilson. He has a great shot at the MVP. Too bad he can’t play defense. Seattle’s defense is historically bad. That means Wilson has to play flawlessly just to get a chance to win the game at the end. He is showing some cracks of late, throwing 4 INTs in the last two weeks. He isn’t going to get a break this week with the Rams. LA gets great pressure straight up the middle. I did some research on which QBs do well with pressure straight up the gut. You know who does well? None of them. As an added bonus, the Seahawks have their 4th string RB starting to help provide protection. Yeah, I'm sure he won't miss an assignment. Give me the Rams at home coming off a bye. LA Rams -2.
Season record: 12-12-1
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