Nurse the Hate: The Finest Sunday of All, Wild Card Sunday

 

Yesterday was a bit of a disaster.  The only thing I got right was the over in that Buffalo game, but didn't get any action down.  The later games failed to come together as I had hoped and I lost my ass.  Jared Goff looked terrible, which I expected, especially after Seahawk safety Adams almost killed Wolford.  I didn't see Wilson being made to look as bad as the Rams made him though.  The Ram defense looked like the 85 Bears, something I don't recall as they limped through the last month.  All the Road Teams won yesterday ATS, which now gives the dogs an incredible 11-0 run in the Wild Card round in the last three years.  As I have always said, bet with a trend and not against one.  So, let's take a look at the road teams today...

My strongest road team lean is Titans +3.5 over the Ravens.  The Ravens kick the crap out of weak teams, and made a strong run down the stretch doing just that.  The Titans, made to look like the second tier team they are by the Packers, are in that odd group of teams that I think might be good, but I don't trust, like the Colts, Bears, Cardinals, and Browns.  The Titans are like the LP you buy because you love the one song, and then it turns out the rest is shit.  To all of you that have relegated the first Jet LP into the used bins of the world, you know what I'm talking about.  

I am 100% positive about one thing about the Ravens.  They are either going to be exposed as another version of the Cardinals OR are going to go on a run to the AFC Championship Game.  Obviously, it feels spectacular to be as certain as I am.  I do not trust the Titans defense, which the Browns dropped a thousand points on in the first half of their game, and the Texans effortlessly moved up and down the field on last week.  However, the Titans greatest weakness is against drop back passing, something that Lamar does not do particularly well.  Lamar is going to go on a few long runs because he is as athletic as a Greek God, which poses a problem for the Titan defense.  He is also as accurate with the ball as late career Rick Ankiel or Chuck Knoblach.  I am not suggesting Lamar has the dreaded "yips", but I am saying he throws easy passes into the turf.  These teams on paper are evenly matched.  I'll take the points and hope to white knuckle it out.  Tennessee +3.5

I have no trust in the Bears.  I know that I should put my fears aside, and take Chicago +8 against the ultimate public team of New Orleans at home, but I can't.  Any team with Mitch Trubisky cannot be trusted.  His recent success against the league's worst defenses is a siren song calling the unwary to crash on the rocks.  Trusting in Mitch today is like trusting the high school boy at prom that promises to just "put in the tip".  If you trust in Mitch, you could very well get the entire rod shoved in a place you are not interested in.  Pass.

The Browns slipped by a backup heavy Steeler team last week by the skin of their teeth.  Now they have to A) go to Pittsburgh B) without their Pro Bowl guard C) so they are putting in a guy for his first NFL start.  D) This is in addition to both cornerbacks being out with covid/injury, so E) Jackson is starting again and he just got lit up by Mason Rudolph instead of facing F) Ben Roethlesberger.  Making matters worse G) head coach and play caller Stefanski is out with covid so the special teams coordinator is the head coach and Alex Van Pelt will try in game play calling.  The covid outbreak was so bad that H) the facility was shut down most of the week and the team couldn't practice.  This is going to be an issue as I) the Steelers bring a ton of pressure on the QB, and Mayfield sucks under that pressure.  The line opened at Pittsburgh -3.5 and moved past the relatively unimportant spread numbers to rest at -6 after the waterfall of bad breaks for the Browns.  The dream ends today.  It's too much for them to overcome.  A home team is going to cover eventually.  Pittsburgh -6

Season Record:  24-21-1