Nurse the Hate: 2021 NFL Win Total Bets

 

I have worked in the peripheral orbit of NFL Football for many years.  Though never employed directly by the team, I have sold various Cleveland Browns media schemes like regional radio networks, game spots, event sponsorship, and more “shoulder programs” than I would care to admit.  If you are a potential advertiser that would love to have a TV commercial running in a Browns game, but just don’t have the dough, there’s a decent chance that I have come up with some combination of Pregame, Coach’s Show, or thinly linked team feature.  These NFL games are the Boardwalk of the Monopoly Board of advertising.  One is required to get creative to make it work for clients with “limited budgets”. 

I have a great affection for those commercials that run during games, especially radio, that attempt to draw a parallel between some shitty product and the listeners favorite team.  There was a guy I used to work with that was the master at writing these awful commercials for inside Indians games.  He would generally do the same outline for all of them.  Start with a flimsy supposition and then just go full bore ahead.  “Most people don’t like math, but here’s some math you WILL like!  Buy any two tires at Tire Mart and get the next two tires at 50% off!” 

Now, despite the fact that there is no real proof that “most people” don’t like basic math, he goes right in with the offer.  Sure, it would have been easier to go with 25% off all 4 tires, but you are dealing with The General Public, and let’s be honest, they’re morons.  50% off two tires sounds much better to the dopes listening than 30% off four.  Still, what does this tire offer have to do with baseball?  Here comes the part where the magic of somehow tying the product in with the team.  “So, whether you are driving in runs like The Tribe, or just driving the kids home from baseball practice, you want the best tires you can get!  Tire Mart!”.  It’s just complete shit. 

The reason clients buy these campaigns is the same reason why anyone buys anything.  It makes them feel good.  I don’t know if I ever sold a sports sponsorship to someone that wasn’t a big fan.  In most cases, the client wants to get closer to the team, get special access that their money has provided them.  As a result, I have hosted VIP Training Camp outings, tours of the locker room, trips on the team plane to away games, standing on the sidelines during warmups, meet n greets with players, or anything else you can think of.  As such, I have been able to peek behind the curtain of professional sports.  I understand how it works.  There is no going back once you see how the machine works.  It is 100% a business.  It is a cold hearted, cruel business.  It takes no prisoners, and once you have been cast out of the kingdom, you are gone forever.

I was discussing my various team win bets with my associate, and he was stunned by the news of Cam Newton’s sudden cut from the Patriots.  I don’t know why this surprised him.  The Patriots would toss screaming infants off a lifeboat once they determined the kids offered no upside on the boat.  They cold bloodedly looked at Cam, the once MVP that has had his body destroyed by the game, and moved on.  That’s the way the season win total bets need to be looked at, with a cold blooded eye that forgets the past, does not romanticize the future and can only see the present.

With that in mind, I am betting against the New Orleans Saints.  Last year was the final hurrah of Drew Brees, one of the all time greats that hung on too long, like they all do (except Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson, who had their love of the game sapped from them simply by being Lions).  The Saints had a QB competition, which is what a team does when they don’t have a guy they feel comfortable with, and will look to give the job to whoever “wins” the job until they draft someone they do like next year and dump both guys.  The Saints REALLY wanted to give the starting QB job to Taysom Hill, but Jameis Winston plain outplayed him.  Now the Saints will go into 2021 with a turnover machine at QB as opposed to the guy that can’t really play the position, ready with an itchy trigger finger to swap the players out.  (Now’s the time to omit a lukewarm “who dey” Saints fans…)

The Saints win total sits at 8.5 wins, which seems reasonable for a Playoff team, especially with 17 regular season games.  However, take this under consideration…  The schedule is unbalanced this year with the NFC playing an extra away game.  On top of that, Hurricane Ida Jane just made the Saints opener at home next week impossible, so they are playing Green Bay in the neutral site of Jacksonville, where it is likely more Packer fans will be in the stands than Saint fans.  The Saints, with a huge home game impact in the Superdome with the volume of the crowd, now only play 7 of 17 games at home.  As home teams in general win 57% of the time, this is a large disadvantage, much less for a team like New Orleans and their traditional dominance at home.  No Drew Brees, no Michael Thomas, and 13 players gone from the playoff team of last year.  I think this is a team that could win 9 if Jameis limits the turnovers, so I am going at this from another direction.  With 3 potential Playoff teams from the NFC West, a healthy Vikings team, and Rodgers locked in at Green Bay, I like the bet that the Saints miss the Playoffs.  New Orleans Saints to make Playoffs/’NO” -140.    

Jacksonville, the Toledo of Florida, is a city that shouldn’t have a franchise.  It’s the Florida panhandle.  They like SEC football.  Nobody gives a shit about the Jags.  It’s why they put a swimming pool in one of the end zones, to try and trick people into thinking it’s fun to go see the Jags play.  The franchise is a mess, yet their win total of 6.5 suggests they are a slightly below average team.  There is an odd belief that Trevor Lawrence is a can’t miss/generational talent that will bring glory to Florida with the steady hand of Urban Meyer offering up wizardry in the game plan.  The Jags won one (1) game last year.  They have an over/under set at 6.5.  I think it’s asking a bit much for Lawrence to step in and improve the team by 6 wins when QB play wasn’t exactly their only weakness.  Meyer already looks like he’s soured on this job, and it’s 50/50 if he parachutes out by Thanksgiving.  Vegas has made Jacksonville a favorite in only one (1) game in 2021 in early lines.  So, they are going to pull off 6 upsets?  Jacksonville Under 6.5 wins.