I am heading over to Germany soon, and have been trading emails with a number of my associates in The Fatherland. I have always operated smoothly over there as I respect the cultural need for precision and punctuality. There is no such thing as meeting "around 10:30". You meet at 10:30 or 10:45. That's it. I remember a number of times where we played club shows that were slated to start at 8pm. At 7:30 there is NO ONE in the club and you're thinking "Fuck, this is a disaster", but then at 7:50 the club is full like a bus just dropped off a hundred people. That is because of a cultural set of norms where everyone knows that if a show is supposed to start at 8:00p, it is not starting at 7:59 or 8:01. That fucking thing goes off at 8:00 on the dot.
There was a gig we played one time where the local soccer club had a match that was supposed to be ended by the start of our set. Something happened in the match that resulted in a bunch of extra time and it was going to run over by 30 minutes or so. Now in the United States, the club promoter would tell one of the band members, "Hey, let's wait til the game ends and then go on when the club fills up". It's a gray area based on the situation. Now this German scenario was much more high stress. First the club promoter huddled with the bar manager. Then, after ten minutes of animated discussion, they were joined by a third club employee for even more intense discourse. Finally, a decision reached, the promoter came over to me and leaned into my ear to say "OK. We are going to push the show back. We will have you go on at 8:10.". It can take 10 minutes to find Leo/Sugar at any given time, but rather than explain that to the clearly stressed event promoter, I just said "OK" like we had just pulled off a major logistical obstacle.
As ridiculous as that is, you have to admire an entire nation that runs with the expectation that everyone has their shit together and will do what they say they are going to do. I don't know about you, but my daily life consists of trying to work around most of the people I deal with, none of which ever do what they say they are going to do. The other day I was trying to get a FedEx shipment that had inexplicably stalled out for four days at the drop point. The entire concept of "overnight" shipping is to get something from point A to B in one day, but the FedEx representative didn't seem too concerned that the package hadn't moved in days. "What probably happened was that someone put it in the incoming box instead of outgoing.". Now, she had decided this was the root cause of the issue despite not having talked to anyone about it, and had done nothing to see what the situation was for the delay. She just made that shit up, and my role was to go along with it like there was some sort of factual basis for the horseshit she had trotted out. When I suggested she needed to be more proactive as there was no reason to think this package would move again today, she said, "Well, I could call over there. Do you want me to do that?". No, I would prefer you don't do anything except keep my money and I just go back to hoping the package miraculously arrives.
I can't get an overnight shipping company in the United States to even inquire to why they haven't executed their service, and in Germany they thoughtfully tell you scheduled dates of an upcoming rail strike so you can plan accordingly to be on time with alternate transportation. The key part of being onboard with the mindset of American Exceptionalism is to ignore the glaring examples of how badly basic standards have eroded by never going anywhere outside of the United States. "USA is the best country in the world!", says the person that has never traveled anywhere except DisneyWorld and Las Vegas. I mean, don't get me wrong, at any given time some German can go off on you because you ordered the wrong sausage at the wrong time of day or don't know how the bakery line works, but the key is there is a system and dammit we are following it!
I was thinking about these systems regarding the NFL Conference Championship Games today. Home teams have gone 16-4 in the last decade. Overs are 9-3 in the last 6 years. Home teams are 13-7 ATS in the last decade. Home favorites of more than 7 are 6-14 ATS. What does any of it mean? I dunno. I will tell you this... I am not going to bet on Jared Goff playing outside in a big game. The Lions are definitely a sentimental favorite, but let's be reasonable here. They snuck by a crappy Tampa team at home, and could have lost to the Rams at home. This is a road game against the undeniably best team in the NFL all year. With the exception of that weird three game losing streak, the 49ers have looked elite. I think we can all agree that San Francisco is going to score on the Lions. If Tampa moved the ball on you, the 49ers are going to as well. The big question to me is how well will Detroit rise offensively. The narrative is that this will be a high scoring, who has the ball last game. I don't think that's going to happen. I think SF dominates if Debo Samuel gets shot up with enough goo goo juice to play effectively. Unless Detroit gets lucky with a bunch of high variance decisions like making risky 4th downs, turnovers going their way, etc., I think San Francisco outclasses Detroit. San Francisco -7.
The Ravens v Chiefs game is a minefield. The Ravens are the better team. They have been all year. Lamar is the MVP, yet he's the QB I trust the least in this game. Despite Baltimore having the better offense, better defense, better kicker and being at home, are you eager to drop money against Mahomes? If you are like me, your Doomsday Scenario is two weeks of Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce Super Bowl hype. I don't understand why Taylor Swift is so popular, and I can't seem to summon up the energy or empathy to embrace why others are so taken with her. Do you want to see speculative media on how Taylor is getting into the stadium to watch the game from a luxury box perch? I'm sick of those Kelce Brothers too, and they are hometown boys. Mahomes wife? Enough. It's too much but I don't feel like I can stop it. I'm thinking about tossing a few sheckles on Kansas City, so when the harsh reality of Super Bowl Taylor Swift Hype enters my life, I can at least count a few dollars on a win. This is a wager based on hate and negativity. Kansas City +4.5.
Current record: 32-27-2
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