When I worked in advertising, one of the biggest hurdles that I think the industry had in creating effective ads was in overestimating the intelligence of the audience. Most of these advertising jobs are filled with college graduates. I mean, I'm not saying a bunch of Rhodes Scholars but "college graduates" like somehow they made their way out of Kent State or Bowling Green or somewhere similar. A roomful of people that work in advertising is not a group that will stun you with academic insight or creative problem solving, but know at least something. I think the problem is when you are surrounded by your peer group, regardless if that is a bunch of day laborers or genetic scientists, you make the assumption that everyone you come in contact with is fairly similar to you and your people. This is not true by any stretch of the imagination. Let's take a car ad for example...
I used to do a reasonable amount of automotive ads for people, or at least tried to along the way. The auto dealer would tell you "We've got this zero percent financing incentive and a $2500 rebate plan from the factory we need to advertise." Then you'd run the stereotypical car ad with stock footage of the car in question driving down the picturesque road with the announcer saying something like "Take your choice of zero percent financing options or $2500 rebate to drive today!" as if that would get people excited. Those schedules usually didn't work very well. You know why? Because the general population doesn't know what the fuck a rebate is or understand how the interest rate impacts the price. The general public doesn't know anything. The only thing almost anyone you look at in a grocery store understands is "2 for 1" or "$200 a month". That's it. They can't do the math on what 25% of 100 is much less figure out how much money they'd save at 0% versus 8%. As far as problem solving ability it goes fish<goat<average Lorain County resident<squirrel in that order. I am serious. Randomly ask someone in a public place how much 15% of 80 is, or who the United States fought in WW2, or what states border Ohio... You'll be stunned at who doesn't know the correct answers.
I sit and listen to people talk in public spaces. It's really disheartening. I have been pouring wine to people in weird beverage store sampling events lately. Let me tell you something. It's almost impossible to simplify something too much for an average person to understand. Like if I tell someone "it's hot where the grapes come from so they get very ripe because it's from Southern France", almost none of them can find France on a map much less know that there would be climate differences in different parts of the country. You can't use the word "climate" because they don't know what that means. There is no way in hell you can talk about tariffs impacting store prices because they don't know what a tariff is beyond having something to do with money. A lot of times people nod their heads along like they understand something, but you know they have no fucking idea of what you're saying. The problem is you already broke the conversation down so a 10 year old could get it, and there's no way to speak even more simply. So when you think about current events, how in God's name can we expect most people in the country to understand how the oil market works, or why the Save American Act is voter repression, or how you can't just leave Iran as the "winner" because you decided to make a statement on social media. Fucking A, it's a grim time.
I watched this documentary on PBS the other night called "Hard Hat Riot" which was about the 1970 riots when construction workers beat the crap out of college anti war protesters in NYC. It's interesting how similar the man-on-the-street TV interviews sounded to present day as the construction workers were pissed off because they had this black/white view of "America" that they felt the protesters were desecrating. There is a slim difference between the "America: Love It Or Leave It" 1970 construction worker and the 2026 flag decal in the window pickup driver with the beard "Don't Tread On Me" guy today. Both of them had this "don't tell me something I don't want to hear, and if you step on that flag I'm gonna beat your ass" sensibility that is timeless in America. In their defense, the 1970s hippie movement that waved Viet Cong flags as they occupied Columbia University buildings is as annoying and naive as the "Defund The Police/Black Lives Matter" suburban liberals of today, so I get why they wanted to knock their heads in. It's the same cycle over and over, and because no one reads any history, we repeat it all over again. The worst thing about getting older is seeing the same movie over and over with people telling you "you just don't understand the plot" when you know goddamn well how it ends. I recommend that documentary though. It's time better spent than watching reality tv shows.
Thank God baseball is about ready to begin. I could really use that daily distraction of the endless regular season to zero in on for awhile. I had been looking for another team to bet on the over/under but haven't been sold on one like that Pirates bet, which the Pirates being the Pirates is probably doomed. I am feeling a little bullish on the Giants this year but the win total of 80.5 is probably right on target. I don't see an advantage anyway as once you get past the Giants first two starters (Webb/Ray) anything can happen. That's when I saw an odd little head-to-head bet sitting there: More wins, Giants or Guardians? Now that's intriguing!
I'll give you a quick overview on the Giants. Two solid starters, injury prone Tyler Mahle #3, injury prone Adrian Houser #4, and maybe Landen Roupp? This is where the Giants get into their version of "Well, if that guy stays healthy and that guy can start 18-20 games this year, they should be OK". Realistically two of those five starters will get hurt and some AAA guys that are shaky as shit will pitch more often than you'd hoped. As far as the starting lineup, they've done that move some other teams have done by making the infield the offensive focus and then put fleet footed contact hitters in the outfield. Devers/Adames are a solid power hitting combo. Chapman has pop at third. Arraez is a former batting champion at second. That's a really good infield offensively. The outfield? Eh... Heliot Ramos is decent in left. Jung Ho Lee in center hasn't been what they'd thought, so Bader probably plays a lot in center with Will Brennan platooning with Lee in right. It's a "buncha guys". Still, this is a team that can score some runs. I think the everyday lineup is good enough that 85 wins is a reasonable expectation and falling below 78 would be a disaster.
The Guardians are what they always are, aren't they? Pretty good pitching with Jose Ramirez getting some help from Steven Kwan and then 7 other guys floundering around. That is the game plan. They were a shocking playoff team last year with that Tigers collapse plus some of the luckiest swings of fortune possible driving the bus. The assumption is Bibee/Williams/Cecconi will be really good because their young pitching is ALWAYS good. The team didn't add shit in the offseason and are either confident in their young players developing or are just talking shit to avoid any bad contracts across the inevitable 2027 labor dispute. I think Manzardo becomes a reliable power hitter with a low average. I sort of believe in Rocchio taking another step too. Arias is a utility guy getting too many at bats until Bazzana gets called up full time. I mean, can he possibly give you less than Arias? Delauter seems like he's doomed to be injured all the time, but at least there's hope there. Kayfus or Valera in RF is a daydream. Rys Hoskins is a professional hitter, so he's going to mess up those other guy's destined failure in right by stealing their potential at bats as DH. Hoskins isn't great, but he's better than what they've got. Cleveland is at 79.5 wins on the line right now. This looks like a shit lineup, but it ALWAYS LOOKS LIKE A SHIT LINEUP and then they somehow win 86 games. I think luck catches up to them this year and they finish third in the Central behind Detroit/Kansas City. The Guardians have way too much of that "well if ALL the young players develop at the same time AND none of the starters get hurt AND Hoskins plays well AND the bullpen comes together AND Jose doesn't get hurt at any point in the year, they could be OK. I am going to do the following... Giants More Wins Than Cleveland. I am also going to see how Cleveland starts the season with their brutal first two weeks. The Guardians start @Seattle (4 games), @ Dodgers (3 games), Cubs (3 games), Kansas City (3 games) @ Atlanta (3 games). If they start 6-10 or so, that win total will move off the 79.5 to 78/77 and I am going to bet Guardians OVER 78 as a hedge.
Let's play ball.
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