Sunday, December 21, 2014

Nurse the Hate: Hate the NFL Week 15

This is a tough time of year.  Most teams’ dreams of glory have now been crushed, and guys are playing for their next contract while trying not to get hurt.  I try to avoid betting on games between bad teams that have nothing to play for except pride.  Who the hell knows what will happen?  For example, after what the Browns looked like last week, it’s hard not to take a second mortgage out and get on the Panthers.  However, the Panthers really suck and are starting a guy at QB that just got in a major car accident. That’s not exactly an ideal scenario gamblers seek out. The key is to find games where something is at stake for both teams.

I am betting against the Cincinnati Bengals.  That’s right.  I am not betting on the Broncos, I am betting against the Bengals.  Cincinnati has a long proud history of not being able to win The Big Game.  They are 2-13 in their last 15 prime time games.  That’s a lot of sad faces in Cincinnati.  Is this the “Marvin Lewis Factor” of him being completely out coached when facing a quality opponent each and every time?  Is it that Andy Dalton is completely unreliable and flames out when the lights are brightest?  Who the hell knows, but it’s hard to imagine the Broncos taking a loss this close to the Playoffs.  The Broncos are a team that wants to win the whole thing, and they have enough veteran guys to know that a key is to roll into the Playoffs on a hot streak.  The Bengals feel pretty good about themselves after shoving the Browns around last week.  The Broncos aren’t the Browns.  I have seen the future and in it I see a lot of drunk hillbilly Bengal fans trudging back to their cars Monday night after a firm handling of their team by the Broncos.  Denver -3.5

The National Sports Media is all jacked up about the Dallas Cowboys.  Let’s be honest.  The NFL is more fun when the Cowboys are good and Jerry Jones is saying crazy shit on TV.  While last week’s win by Dallas over Philadelphia looked like a big deal at the time, seeing the Eagles just slip by a horrible Redskins team last night took some of that luster away.  Even ardent Cowboy fans will admit that the Cowboys just aren’t that good if you press them.  Their record looks good on paper, but remember the NFC East is awful.  It’s all about headlines though.  People want to buy in.  They have bought in.  The Cowboys are back!

When The Public is going one way, it’s time to go the other.  Dallas is a great team to bet against at home.  The Public will bet on Dallas at home no matter what, so as the money rolls in, the books have to move the spread to try and get more action on the visitor.  I think Indianapolis might win this game outright, but I will take Indy +3.5 just because I love that extra half point.  Also, consider that Dallas is 3-17 against the spread when favored coming off of a win.  Folks just can’t stop jumping on that Cowboy bandwagon.  I think these teams will go up and down the field on one another as Dallas has no pass defense to speak of, and with Murray dealing with a broken hand, it is reasonable to expect the Cowboys to take to the air.  I will watch this game with laser focus in the hopes that Brandon Weeden gets in and singlehandedly provides me with a win.  Indy +3.5  

Season Record 21-13-1


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