Saturday, September 28, 2019

NFL Week 4: A Stunning Crash To Earth?

I have been on such a roll with the NFL, yet I don't feel good about it.  I should be nude rolling around in my winnings while singing along to James Brown.  I'm not though.  Instead I'm regretting not having my entire 401K tied up in these wagers so I can calmly walk into work in a bathrobe on Monday to announce, "I'm sorry my robe has blown open my dear, but this is of little concern.  I just want to make you aware that as opposed to increasing shareholder value over in my cubicle, I am going to listen to Slayer and read the New York Times to see if this piece of shit con man president of ours is finally going to be put in shackles and led off like a diseased dog.  You enjoy yourself though. Oh, and can you get me some tea?"

I need to get very aggressive.  However, I am an insane 8-0 in the NFL this year.  This suggests I will launch an 0-8 spree today that brings me crashing to earth like Icarus.  Have no fear my intrepid adventurer.  I will press forward with the idea that it is better to roll with a trend than bet against it.  It's time to launch Operation Bathrobe!  Please note, I need you to trust me that I was on the Jets last week.  I was traveling and couldn't write.  Let's be honest.  No one brags about being on the Jets.

I am a big believer in betting against public perception.  That is about 75% of NFL betting.  Realizing what others think, and accepting that this is incorrect.  Think about all the assholes you see driving too slowly in the left lane in Buicks.  They think they have it all figured out.  Those are stupid fucking hillbillies.  Those same stupid fucking hillbillies think that the New York Football Giants have solved their problems by starting rookie QB Daniel Jones.  Yes that young man enjoyed a mythological start last week in leading the Giants to victory.  Yes, the Washington Redskins looked pathetic last week.  This is exactly what we look for in value.  A crappy team gives another crappy team too many points.  How do we make that even better?  Tease it with another team low in the public perception.

The Cleveland Browns were supposed to be awesome.  They aren't.  Of course they aren't.  They are the Browns.  It's what the Browns do.  They destroy dreams.  They leave their fans crying in the stands.  Every single NFL fan entered the season with the story line of "At last the Browns will be good" only to see the team look anemic at 1-2.  Perfect.  Let's jump on the Browns over an overrated Ravens team by teasing them up with the Redskins over the shitty Giants.

Washington +9/Cleveland +13

Before the season started I said the Dolphins would be terrible.  I could gloat about that right now, but instead I am going to bet on the Dolphins.  This seems like an awful idea, and it probably is.  Betting on terrible teams is playing with fire like autoerotic asphyxiation on a business trip.  Maybe it's a thrill, but the risk is not worth the reward.  Yet, I am going to take the Dolphins +15.5 over the Chargers not as a testament to the Dolphins but rather as fade on the Chargers.  LA has cluster injuries on the offensive line and two tight ends out, as well as WR Mike Williams.  I am not sure who is going to score for the Chargers.  Miami doesn't need to be good on Sunday, just try to compete  at home.  Is it too much to ask?  Maybe but I'm on Miami +15.5.

Season Record:  8-0



At September 30, 2019 at 10:20:00 PM EDT , Blogger Cy Zibrik, MPA said...

Did Jesus talk you into the Jets bet, or did you talk him into it?


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