Saturday, September 14, 2019

Nurse the Hate: NFL Week 2



Last weekend was an aberration.  Not only did I go 3-0 on the posted picks, I won on the under on TH night as well.  The chance of going 4-0 in any week is almost none, much less in the wilderness of mirrors that is Week One of the NFL season.  It would be in my best interests to never gamble on another football game again.  It's like winning the lottery and insisting on being paid in lottery tickets.  I should walk away.  This is not what I am going to do though.

I am reminded of a trip I made to Vegas 117 years ago.  Two guys I sort of knew had worked themselves up in a lather playing roulette.  They had an absolute mountain of chips in front of them.  A crowd cheered them on, scantily clad hookers and local grifters smelling fresh blood in the water.  I wedged in to say hello and get a grasp on the situation.  Both of their eyes were crackling with the electricity and fever that only a monster winning gambling run can provide.  "Hey man!  What's up?  We are!  We are up 78 grand!!!".  I suggested they cash out when the worm began to turn.  They laughed in any face.  They were firmly convinced that they had somehow cracked the code of roulette and would now shovel all of the casino's money into duffel bags.  I was not so optimistic.  I went to bed.  It was about 230am.

I woke up around 7am with the familiar jet lag to East Coast travelers.  I jumped on the elevator to eat a horrific breakfast buffet at whatever the hotel diner type restaurant was called.  My guess is it was called "Raffles" or "Sandlewood Grille" (with the "e" at the end so you know it's klassy with a "k").  The roulette table was close to the elevator bank.  Sure as shit those two guys were still at that table.  The scene couldn't be any more different.  There was no cheering crowd.  Just the two of those guys with long faces and about $400 of chips.  While I slept a few hours they lost back a cool 78 large.  Ouch.

Now you would think I would learn a lesson from that, but I didn't.  I am going too swagger into this week with the same misplaced optimism which I carried into last week. To show you how delusional I am, my first selection is the Detroit Lions +2.5 at home versus the Chargers.  Betting on the Lions is usually as good of an idea as starting smoking in your 50s or cashing your 401k in at a strip club.  Yes, there will be some short term thrills but you will generally end up smashed on the rocks of life.  However, hear me out on this...  The Chargers have injuries.  Lots of injuries.  Their best offensive lineman, starting tight end, free safety, cornerback, their best receiver and top running back are all out.  I like betting against West Coast teams playing 1p East Coast start times, even against the Lions.  The Public will be all over the Chargers on this, which means you have to go Lions.  I know.  This is scary.  Ideally, hold out on this and see if you can get 3 points.  Detroit +2.5

The New Orleans Saints are a notoriously slow starting team.  They are 1-9 against the spread in the first two games of the season in the last 10 years.  After a "by the skin of their teeth" win over Houston last Monday, that against the spread mark is now 1-10.  Always bet with the trend, not against it.  This week they play a Rams team with a completely clean injury sheet at LA.  The Rams looked strong last week, especially in the second half.  I like the superior home team versus the road team on a short week.  The Public will be focused on the idea of "Revenge For Drew Brees and The Saints" after getting jobbed in the Playoffs last year.  Whatever.  Give me the better team at home.  LA Rams -2.5

Remember how I just told you I like betting against West Coast teams traveling East?  OK, forget that.  We are going to bet against the Bengals here.  We don't need the 49ers to win.  We just need them to hang in there.  I am not sure if 49er James Garoppolo is a legit NFL starting QB.  He looked shitty last week.  Making matters worse, the 49ers lost their starting RB.  I know none of this sounds good, but we are going to tease them.  We are going to take the six points to move through the 3, 4 and 7 number to get San Francisco +7.  Denver is getting 2.5 at home versus the Bears.  A couple of quick points.  The Bears offense looked awful because Mitch Trubisky looked like he wasn't very good at football.  I don't think he got good at football in the last week.  The Broncos have a good defense.  They have a much better defense than the Packers who totally shut down the Bears last week because, as we have noted, Mitch Trubisky isn't good at football.  The Broncos head coach was the Bears defensive coordinator last year.  I am thinking he might have a good idea at what Mitch isn't very good at besides just "football".  There is a wild rumor afoot that Mitch can't roll one direction and pass the ball accurately.  This is a problem in the NFL.  I am betting on a Von Miller led defensive front to make Mitch quite uncomfortable despite the rest disparity between the two teams.  Let's just keep it close fellas.  Denver at home +8.5?  Yes please.  SF +7/Denver +8.5

Season Record 3-0 
      

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