The Big Turnaround and NFL Week 5

 

Good lord have I been ice cold on these NFL bets.  I can't ever remember a streak as bad as this one.  There was a guy I knew that ran a car dealership.  He had bought into some "pick advisor" a long time ago, one of those Vegas based tout services that used to have 800 numbers to try and rope you into paying for picks.  He had used the service for a couple of weeks and had done pretty well, like 65% or something.  He decided to just go for it on Thanksgiving weekend with these guys picks and went an astounding 2-19.  He lost so much money he had to sell some of his appliances and his wife's car.  It put what was referred to as "a strain on his marriage".  See?  Things could be worse.

I used to work with these guys in radio that had management take their sales staff on a trip to Vegas after they hit some bullshit sales goal.  One of the guys was a total degenerate, sort of a Chris Farley lookalike.  In true radio industry fashion, they had been given a small budget to make it happen, so the guys on the staff decided to book into the Frontier, well known as the dingiest place on the strip in the 1990s.  It was the kind of place where you'd get chips that had cigarette burns on them sometimes.  The whole place smelled like mold and smoke and urinal cakes.  So the Chris Farley guy was so jacked up that he had his co-workers hold his place in the check-in line as he laid down some bets on roulette.  He had noticed the wheel had come up Red on the last five rolls.  He bet black.  It came up red again.  Loser.  He decided to double up and get his money back.  He bet black.  It came up red once again.  Loser.  Now he's all in as this had taken a big chunk of his bank roll.  He puts the rest of his money in to "get his money back".  He bets black.  There is no way it would hit red 8 times in a row.  It hits red.  Loser.  He hadn't even checked in and he's busted.  He's got three days in the shittiest hotel in Vegas with NO money.  He checks into his room, bunked in with a Ned Flanders type guy.  He's cautious to a fault, afraid of even offering an opinion in the off chance it could put him in some sort of risk.  The Chris Farley guy is furious and knocking back a six pack he forced Ned Flanders to buy him on the way up.  Ned leaves Farley to his misery and walks around The Strip to take pictures.  On his way back to the room, he finds a quarter in his pocket so he puts it in the slot machine by the elevator.  He wins $3000.  He practically sprints back to the room eager to share his good fortune with Chris Farley.  "Look!  Look!  Look!  I won $3000 on a quarter slot!"  Farley turns his head slowly and says "If you don't get the fuck out of here I swear to Christ I will beat your head open on the bathroom sink."

See?  Things could be worse.  However, if you want to make some $$$ I'd bet the total opposite of these picks.

It's time to get back to basics.  Let's bet against bad teams.  The Titans are 3-18 against the spread since the start of the Callahan Era.  Why those dipshit kids of the deceased Titans owner decided to get rid of Vrabel and bring in this guy is beyond me.  Cam Ward looks like a bust.  They have different people calling screen passes, runs and passing plays.  This whole thing is bad in Nashville.  I will take Arizona at home hoping I am not the reason why the Titans start to turn it around.  Arizona -7.5

Browns new starting QBs are 0-16 on their first start.  They are not exactly setting Dillon Gabriel for success starting him on a short week against a team already acclimated to the six hour difference time zone.  Minnesota's Brian Flores runs a complicated defense that has a great track record against inexperienced QBs.  The Browns are also starting the two lowest rated tackles in football.  Are there risks here?  Ummm yeah.  Minnesota has three offensive linemen out, and they haven't been good anyway.  That's not great news against the Browns and Myles Garrett.  Oh, and they just put their center on the IR with a concussion so they have to start their third stringer.  How are either of these teams going to move the ball?  I have no idea, but I'll tell you this.  The Browns are going to try to run the ball... a lot.  Give me Judkins OVER 18 Rushing Attempts.  What do rookie QBs do?  Panic and run the ball.  In college last year, Gabriel typically took off and ran at least three times a game for moderate yardage.  We don't need much here.  Dillon Gabriel over 15 yards rushing.   

I don't think the Chiefs are very good.  All of these NFL dynasties eventually come to an end, and it feels like this is a Kansas City version of a rebuild.  Jacksonville has a pretty good offensive line that has kept Lawrence clean and that makes a huge difference for that dude.  Kansas City has one of the worst D lines in the NFL, so that matchup is going to be a tough one.  I absolutely hate putting money on Jacksonville, but I don't know how the Chiefs finesse their way out of this one. Monday Night at home and getting 3.5 points seems perfect to win a bet as you watch the Jags lose by three on a FG at the end.  Jacksonville +3.5

Current Record:  3-10