The Great Shark Dive and NFL Week 8

 

It's going to be a quiet public facing Fall here at Whiskey Daredevil/Cowslinger HQ.  It appears we have now reached the stage of the band where we have gone from "Grizzled Road Dogs" to "Rickety Fuckers" as both Hector and Sugar are on the IR rehabbing.  I'm not casting aspersions here as it could have just as easily (and will probably) be me soon enough.  Hector tore his labrum and needed surgery, so he's sort of like a relief pitcher trying to get ready for Spring Training right now.  Sugar, after a life dedicated to both playing bass and surfing spreadsheets, has to get carpal tunnel surgery.  This means the gig calendar is empty until Spring 2026.  

I don't do well with an empty calendar, so I have immediately filled it with a couple of quests.  Since Hector can't play guitar for awhile, I'm going to write some songs with Bobby.  Hector and I had worked out about a half album's worth of new material before his shoulder blew, so I'm thinking of writing six good songs with Bobby to make a weird LP.  One side will be a new Whiskey Daredevils LP.  You flip the LP over and it will be a new Cowslingers LP.  All I need now is to have six good ideas over the next 75 days.  How hard can it be?  We've made something like 26 records, so how challenging can it be to make a new one?  I guess we'll find out.  

The other thing I decided to do was finally commit to my ultimate shark dive.  Of all the things I've done scuba diving, my favorites have been diving with sharks.  Blame me being an impressionable child when I saw the movie "Jaws", but I have always wanted to see a great white shark.  I talked to a guy that was surfing and saw one swim underneath him once just north of San Francisco, but that's the closest I've ever been.  He said it was as wide across as a VW microbus.  Therefore, since I have all this suddenly free time, I am going to go to Port Lincoln Australia and go dive with a great white shark.  It's pretty much the scariest thing I can think of to do, and much more interesting than taking up gardening.  

I have to go to Australia anyway as my neverending Master of Wine quest provided an opportunity (excuse?) to go to the annual seminar in Adelaide AU.  I have never been to Australia but always wanted to go for 1) the shark and 2) to see what Barossa looks like.  I don't think I had noted on this platform that my Big Wine Exam I took last June resulted in me failing most of it and passing some of it.  Now while that sounds like a disaster, it really isn't.  Most people don't pass anything in it, so it shows that I can pass it.  Now I'm not saying I will pass it, but I am going to try my best.  I've got about 18 coravined bottles of tannic red going on my counter and an essay on brettanomyces on my laptop if you're interested.  Swing on by next week and read my volatile acidity essay if you want some real action!  The slog continues.  The good news is that if I finally do pass this thing I will be so sick of wine and almost everyone in the industry that I will leap out of it to see if I can pass the Ohio Bar Exam for kicks.

That leaves my focus on NFL gambling.  As noted a couple weeks ago I remained convinced that my handicaps were good but the results were flukey.  I have gone 8-1 in the last three weeks, so I think I'm on the right track.  I don't love the card as much this week as I have the last two, but I have some opinions on a couple of the games.  Let's start with my nemesis, the Cleveland Browns.  It's amazing how fast people's opinions will change week to week in the NFL.  Browns fans were ready to have Kevin Stefanski drawn and quartered on the Lakefront after that Vikings game.  I wouldn't have joined the angry mob to do that, but I will admit to being curious enough to watch the execution just to see what it was like.  Now the Browns are coming off beating a really horrible Dolphins team in the rain, and suddenly the fan base is talking Wild Card Playoff run.  Let's be reasonable here.  The Dolphins are fucking terrible.  Their coach is clearly back on something.  Tua without Hill looks like Dillon Gabriel and they owe the guy $50M a year.  Miami is bottom three, and their weaknesses play right to the Browns strengths of being able to run.  Now they are going to Foxboro.

The last time the Browns won a game in Foxboro was in 1992.  Mike Tomczak was the Browns starting QB.  I had just broken up with a girl that had a pistol fall out of her purse onto the floor of the Symposium when she had reached for her drink.  It was a time of limitless possibilities!  The Patriots are a team on the upswing with a real coach (Vrabel) and a real QB (Maye).  They haven't played a home game in 28 days.  The fans are going to be jacked.  You're telling me the Browns are going to go in there and beat those guys?  How... By throwing bubble screens and running between the tackles?  Look, I know that's what they are going to try to do, so I have to believe the Patriots know that too.  Just because the Browns beat Miami last week, they didn't suddenly become good.  Look for the Browns defense to be disappointing on the road.  I'm getting at this two ways.  New England money line and New England team total OVER 23.5    

God help me, I'm thinking about taking the Jets this week.  There is no better team to buy low on than the Jets.  Their coach Aaron Glenn is clearly in over his head.  Why the Jets figured that hiring the offensive minded Lions defensive coordinator was the golden road to victory says a lot about the Jets as an organization.  They spent $20M on Justin Fields, a guy the Steelers let walk away when they had ZERO people in their QB room.  This shows you the difference between a winning organization and a losing one.  The Steelers said, "We don't have anyone to play the position, but we would rather hope we sign crusty old Aaron Rodgers than try to win with Fields.  You want 'em?  Be our guest!".  Shockingly Fields has shown he can't go through progressions and therefore can't win football games.  Meanwhile Cincinnati is POSITIVE all their problems are solved because they won on a short week at home on a TH with Joe Flacco at QB.  Look, I have seen A LOT of Joe Flacco.  I am telling you here and now, he's like a guy throwing dice at a craps table in the Motor City Casino.  He might have a hot streak, but he's going to crap out if you let him keep throwing those dice.  My caveat on this game is this...  If Tyrod Taylor starts, I am betting Jets +6.5.  If it's Fields, I'm walking away from the whole thing.   I tossed around the idea of making a Jets teaser with Jets +12.5 and either Atlanta -1.5 or Washington +19, but it's too hard to trust the fucking Jets.

I took a couple totals as I'm not wild about the sides this week.  I went OVER 49.5 in the Baltimore v Chicago game.  Lamar is back and the Ravens defense blows.  How's that for a handicap?  There is no need to complicate things on that one.  Totals have been a little too low this year in general as The Public hasn't noticed how the new kickoff rules has created better field position for teams and therefore more scoring opportunities.  I don't love Williams but Baltimore hasn't reliably stopped anyone all year.  Let's see some points in Baltimore.  (This just in.  Baltimore bullshitted on Lamar's practice status and he's out this week, thus... I'm OUT)  For the same reason I'm taking Atlanta team total OVER 26.5.  I would take the entire game over, but I'm worried that the freebasing Miami coach and the noodle arm QB won't be able to hold up their end of the bargain.  Miami is in free fall, and Atlanta is quietly becoming a "better than average" NFL team.  The Dolphins just might quit entirely this game.   I see Atlanta scoring at will at home on the turf.

Current record:  11-12

A Ruse and NFL Week 7

 

Last week an Ohio Representative's staffer went on a zoom call with a Nazi/American flag mashup pinned to his bulletin board behind him.  This being something one doesn't expect to see being projected from an elected official's office, it garnered some attention.  To me, the most interesting thing about this incident isn't that a Congressman's office has an American Nazi flag on display in their office (which is certainly eye opening) but the ham handed public relations handling of this afterwards.  To those of you unaware of this story, let me bring you up to speed...

Rep. Dave Taylor is from one of those gerrymandered districts east of Cincinnati, made up of Pickaway, Ross, Hocking, Pike, Scioto, Jackson, Meigs, Vinton, Gallia, Lawrence, Clinton, Highland, Brown, Adams and Clermont counties and the southern part of Fayette County.  This is what we refer to as the "I hope my car doesn't break down here" part of Ohio.  His platform appears to be based on the boilerplate "we gotta be tough on crime so let's all have guns/I love me some Jesus/MAGA greatest hits" parroting party line stuff.  His campaign photo was of him being a hard ass holding an assault rifle.  While you might be led to believe that Dave must be some kind of green beret, it looks like Dave took over his Dad's cement company and went to school at Dayton.  We aren't talking Kennedy Dynasty stuff here.

The guy in the photo above is Dave's worker bee Angelo Elia.  Angelo is a legislative correspondent, which means he is a go-between from the office and the public/press.  He got a poly sci degree from Youngstown State and just got a master's degree from George Washington in Legislative Affairs.  He had worked for a bunch of Democratic based initiatives while in school, and then some political consultant firms before somehow hooking up with Dave Taylor's office.  I read some quotes from his former co-workers along the lines of "I don't know what happened to Angelo that made him turn into a Nazi".  It probably paid more.  Now, I don't think Angelo is a Nazi.  I think Angelo is a dumb fuck.  I think he put that flag on his bulletin board as some kind of ironic gag and forgot about it.  The problem is you're at work as the face of Representative Dave Taylor, so all the people you interact with on Zoom might not get "the joke" and might think "Why does Rep Dave Taylor have American Nazi stuff up in his office?", which is a valid question.  I would probably not hire Angelo Elia in this kind of position in the future because I'd be a bit concerned about Angelo's judgement.  I see Angelo as more of a "back of house guy" moving forward.

I used to think that I could say "I think we can all agree that having a Nazi/American flag up in the office is fucking crazy", but in today's climate I think I can say "Most of us agree that having Nazi shit up in your office is super fucked up".  I don't know where you work, but if I put up Nazi stuff in my cubicle, I would have expected some blowback from HR.  This is because organizations like the Klan, the Nazi Party, Proud Boys, etc were understood to be hate fueled monsters and everyone was together with the idea that you can't walk around the office in an SS uniform.  The country has now somehow transitioned into mild acceptance of these groups. Some of our neighbors might say "Well, I don't agree with EVERYTHING they say, but they do have a point with blah blah blah" which I find both terrifying and sad.  "Say what you will about Mussolini, but at least the trains ran on time!" 

After this Nazi flag thing blew up, my expectation was that Dave Taylor would handle this in a professional manner.  It's not tough.  There is a tried and true strategy out there.  Here's what I would do.  "I was shocked to see that symbol displayed in our office.  That has nothing to do with the beliefs of my office or the people I represent in Ohio.  I want to assure all Ohio residents that we take this violation of your trust seriously and we have taken appropriate action.  I have removed the staffer from his position, and we will move ahead focused on the needs of all Ohio citizens.  Go Bucks.  OH-IO.  Etc.".  I'd do the press conference in an Ohio State sweatshirt and maybe mention Jesus.

That's not what Dave did.

That office huddled all day and came out with the idea that they would "launch an investigation".  They said that they called in the DC police and the House Committee on Something Or Other to "uncover additional details".  That must have been a real puzzle to figure out what happened.  To try and get to the bottom of something like that needed real manpower.  "Angelo, did you have that flag on your bulletin board?"  Yes.  "Where did you get it?"  Someone mailed it to our office.  "I see.  What did you do?"  Hung it up in my cubicle.  

His office then takes another day, undoubtedly meeting for hours behind closed doors with phone calls flying all over the place, and comes out with this.  “Numerous Republican offices have confirmed that they were targeted by an unidentified group or individual who distributed American flags bearing a similar symbol, which were initially indistinguishable from an ordinary American flag to the naked eye,” he said. “My office was among those that were subjected to this ruse.”  To be clear, Dave Taylor walked out at a press conference and suggested that no one in the office saw a swastika on that flag because it was "an optical illusion", and not only was Angelo unaware of the swastika but so were all of the other people in the office.  His office was, in fact, the victim in this situation.

Oh, I see...  You expect us to suspend all logic to give you a pass on this.  We have to pretend to be stupid so you don't have to say "That was wrong".  To be clear, Rep. Dave Taylor is more concerned about upsetting the white power crowd by distancing his Congressional office from being fucking Nazis than taking a stand against the folks that brought you the Holocaust and were our enemies in World War II.  Got it. 

This brings many troubling concepts to the table.  1.  An Ohio Congressman's office doesn't think it's a big deal to display Nazi imagery in their workspace.  I get it that maybe Angelo is the office fun guy, and people in the office might be like "Oh, that Angelo is a crazy fucker!  Anything for a laugh!", but his SEC Frat Bro haircut and Establishment clothes point directly to the idea that he is a career minded young man.  Clearly that office doesn't see anything that bad with Nazi shit and this follows that Angelo didn't see any real problem advancing his career while allowing people to come to their own conclusions on his association with the beliefs of Nazism.  "He's a good kid.  He's our kind of people!"  

2.  That response from their office of "we didn't even notice a Nazi symbol because it's such a mind bending illusion" is the dumbest fucking response I can think of, and points directly to that office being not up to the task.  If a serious real world problem comes up, do you want the people that came up with "we were the victims of a ruse" to be the ones on the front line to handle that?  "We might have to deploy troops, but if we do we aren't sure what China could do, so World War 3 will start and tens of millions will die".  Well, we better ask Dave Taylor what to do.  Dave Taylor knows how to handle shit! 

3.  The Cincinnati Enquirer then re-printed that response while never questioning the validity of the world's dumbest answer effectively cooling down the fire on Taylor's ass in his district.  The local press, again failing to hold anyone to account, took a press release and framed it up as their investigative journalism of "we looked into it, and it's a helluva thing" which will lead God knows how many people to conclude that poor old Cement Dave was the victim of a terrible "ruse" at the hands of some nefarious group of anti-Americans that most likely speak Spanish and deal drugs to kids.  Way to go Cincinnati Enquirer.  Way to hold power to task.  Great job.  

Is this story the end of the world?  No, but it does show you how comfortable people in power are not hiding their idolization of fascism, white power, racial cleansing, and police state rule.  The mainstreaming of values and ideas that were agreed by the previous generations as being reprehensible is something I didn't see coming.  This is the country we live in now.  When history looks back after this falls apart, and it will fall apart, we will all be The Bad Guys in that movie.  For all of those people that abandoned common decency because they thought they could get cheaper eggs by voting in the current government, enjoy your omelettes.  They are going to cost you more than you bargained for.

Fuck this.  Let's talk NFL...

I think, but I don't know for sure, that the Rams might be good.  They are 4-2 with a division loss to SF before the rest of the Niners got hurt and a loss to the Eagles that was sheer dumb bad luck.  They are playing Jacksonville in London on Sunday morning, a game that usually becomes more about which organization can be trusted to deal with the short prep window.  The Rams appear to be down Nacua, but he's one of those "shoot me up, I'll play" guys so we will see.  The Jags are down the AFC Player of the Month in Sept, their LB Devin Lloyd, which is a big loss.  I think the Rams feed the ball to their tight ends and run like crazy.  Until proven otherwise, I can't back the Jags against an elite team.  Rams -3              

I can't believe I am typing this, but I think the Colts are good.  They look like the team you get each season that's good but it takes awhile for most people to wrap their heads around it.  They have a Top 5 defense and the best running game in the league.  I think we will look back on this in a couple months and say "Can you believe the Colts got points playing the Chargers?".  The Chargers are down both of their offensive tackles, a guard, starting RB, and starting receiver.  The Colts are catching these guys are the right time.  Indianapolis +1.5

Gimme the Lions -6 at home.  Tampa has been great this year, pulling games out of their ass on the way to a 5-1 record.  Egbuka, Godwin, the starting right tackle and guard, and RB Bucky Irving are all out though.  Next man up is all fine, but that's more "next MEN up".  Tampa looks like an exciting playoff level team, but you're gonna lose a few games in a season and at Detroit after the Lions got hammered by the Chiefs on MNF seems like a good place to lose.  I like the Lions in a track meet.

Current record:  8-12

   

Bad Bunny and NFL Week 6.

 

I am getting absolutely pummeled by extreme political viewpoints, right and left, because I will look at various passionate takes about what is going on in the country.  It's really tiring to wake up each day to face whatever new EMERGENCY that the algorithm has created for me each morning.  Can I be frank about something?  Almost everyone is a fucking idiot.  I can't figure out if the various TV hosts, podcasters and plastic surgery disasters that are the front people for the Shit Show in DC believe what they say or not.  Take the political theater going on where the National Guard is being sent into situations that aren't a problem the National Guard can fix.  The obvious takeaway is that the inept Christian Nationalist Grifters in Washington are hoping to provoke some kind of event so they can send in more troops everywhere and presumably bully themselves into everlasting power and teet sucking with never ending martial law.  I mean... that's not going to work because the population is so disengaged that unless you start shooting people or fucking with rush hour traffic, no one cares.  Meanwhile, the Far Left, who are as organized as a Phish drum circle, like to talk about having a bunch of big protests and doing... something... about... something... BUT as long as everyone gets their streaming service to their phone, nobody gives a fuck.  Hillbillies in their play army ICE getup zip tie citizens all over the place, Trump can sell watxhes from the Oval Office, the Epstein Files can just sit there, and the government can shut down because rich people want more tax money instead of allowing sick people healthcare.  The major concern appears to be Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl.  

A quick note about Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl...  I do not understand how the people that are upset about Bad Bunny doing the Super Bowl halftime don't see themselves as an updated version of people shaking their fists at those damn hippies at Woodstock or quaking in fear as the Sex Pistols came off the plane to tour the United States.  How can you be unaware of how out of touch and ridiculous you look demanding "real music" like Lee Greenwood at the Super Bowl?  When I see Speaker Mike Johnson, the squarest motherfucker of the 2020s, pipe in with what he thinks should be the band at halftime, I know the nation has lost touch with any lesson of the past.  Look, I have no idea what Bad Bunny exactly sounds like, but I do know A LOT of people like him and the Super Bowl is MASS ENTERTAINMENT.  Someone is always going to be pissed at whoever is chosen to perform.  Just settle the fuck down and check the guy out. Maybe you'll like it.  You probably won't, but it won't kill you either way.  It's 20 minutes of your life while you're chowing down on wings losing your parlay.  I do know one thing for certain, which is I'm not giving Mike Johnson control of the music at any party.  Fucking dork.    

Let's move onto important subjects, the continued struggle of the NFL.  It has been VERY frustrating to be essentially on the mark with the handicap and still lose.  That Arizona loss to Tennessee was 99.9% an Arizona victory with 3 minutes left according to people that track these things.  The last "least likely" games to have come up loser like that were two weeks ago, the CLE/GB and Rams/PHIL games, all three of which I was on the wrong side of.  I need to trust the process and plod ahead.  Let's get to it...

I have never seen a spot like the Browns playing the Steelers this week.  The Browns are coming off a short week with jet lag to go play a road game.  The Steelers are coming off a bye.  How did the NFL do that to the Browns?  Making matters worse, this will be Dillon Gabriel's first real road start.  The last Browns QB to win a regular season game in Pittsburgh was Tim Couch.  That is not a misprint.  They have lost 18 games in a row.  Eighteen.  Mike Tomlin is also 18-4 versus rookie QBs ATS at home in Pittsburgh.  The Browns traded their Game 1 starting QB in division, and traded CB Greg Newsome, a former first rounder for contractual reasons.  Now there is a QB controversy between a shitty 3rd round draft pick and shitty 5th round draft pick. There are still three starting O linemen out.  The white flag waving in the first week of October is early, even for Cleveland.  How the fuck are the Browns going to win this game?  Pittsburgh money line. 

OK, this makes me uneasy but I'm on the Dolphins.  Hear me out on this.  This has to be the low market on the Dolphins.  They look inept.  The coach seems like he relapsed or something.  Remember a couple years ago when he was quirky and a genius, and now he just seems like a little fella in way over his head that needs help?  The Chargers are still horribly injured.  They have both tackles out, their starting running back gone for the season, and dinged up guys all over the defense.  Are the Chargers "better" than the Dolphins?  Probably.  Are they "better" than the Dolphins right now?  I don't think so.  It's a West Coast team flying to Miami for a 1pm kickoff to roast in the sun.  Miami +4.5 is just too many points.   

This feels really square but I am getting on New England over the Saints.  The Patriots are getting better each week.  Meanwhile the Saints look like they might be better than expected after beating the Giants, but to those of you that didn't watch that game (i.e. EVERYONE), the only reason they won was the Giants turned the ball over five times in a row to start the second half.  The Saints are terrible and the only way they can win is if the team they are playing turns it over deep three+ times.  I think the Patriots grind out a businesslike win here and keep their Wild Card dreams alive.  New England -3.

Season Record:  5-12 

The Big Turnaround and NFL Week 5

 

Good lord have I been ice cold on these NFL bets.  I can't ever remember a streak as bad as this one.  There was a guy I knew that ran a car dealership.  He had bought into some "pick advisor" a long time ago, one of those Vegas based tout services that used to have 800 numbers to try and rope you into paying for picks.  He had used the service for a couple of weeks and had done pretty well, like 65% or something.  He decided to just go for it on Thanksgiving weekend with these guys picks and went an astounding 2-19.  He lost so much money he had to sell some of his appliances and his wife's car.  It put what was referred to as "a strain on his marriage".  See?  Things could be worse.

I used to work with these guys in radio that had management take their sales staff on a trip to Vegas after they hit some bullshit sales goal.  One of the guys was a total degenerate, sort of a Chris Farley lookalike.  In true radio industry fashion, they had been given a small budget to make it happen, so the guys on the staff decided to book into the Frontier, well known as the dingiest place on the strip in the 1990s.  It was the kind of place where you'd get chips that had cigarette burns on them sometimes.  The whole place smelled like mold and smoke and urinal cakes.  So the Chris Farley guy was so jacked up that he had his co-workers hold his place in the check-in line as he laid down some bets on roulette.  He had noticed the wheel had come up Red on the last five rolls.  He bet black.  It came up red again.  Loser.  He decided to double up and get his money back.  He bet black.  It came up red once again.  Loser.  Now he's all in as this had taken a big chunk of his bank roll.  He puts the rest of his money in to "get his money back".  He bets black.  There is no way it would hit red 8 times in a row.  It hits red.  Loser.  He hadn't even checked in and he's busted.  He's got three days in the shittiest hotel in Vegas with NO money.  He checks into his room, bunked in with a Ned Flanders type guy.  He's cautious to a fault, afraid of even offering an opinion in the off chance it could put him in some sort of risk.  The Chris Farley guy is furious and knocking back a six pack he forced Ned Flanders to buy him on the way up.  Ned leaves Farley to his misery and walks around The Strip to take pictures.  On his way back to the room, he finds a quarter in his pocket so he puts it in the slot machine by the elevator.  He wins $3000.  He practically sprints back to the room eager to share his good fortune with Chris Farley.  "Look!  Look!  Look!  I won $3000 on a quarter slot!"  Farley turns his head slowly and says "If you don't get the fuck out of here I swear to Christ I will beat your head open on the bathroom sink."

See?  Things could be worse.  However, if you want to make some $$$ I'd bet the total opposite of these picks.

It's time to get back to basics.  Let's bet against bad teams.  The Titans are 3-18 against the spread since the start of the Callahan Era.  Why those dipshit kids of the deceased Titans owner decided to get rid of Vrabel and bring in this guy is beyond me.  Cam Ward looks like a bust.  They have different people calling screen passes, runs and passing plays.  This whole thing is bad in Nashville.  I will take Arizona at home hoping I am not the reason why the Titans start to turn it around.  Arizona -7.5

Browns new starting QBs are 0-16 on their first start.  They are not exactly setting Dillon Gabriel for success starting him on a short week against a team already acclimated to the six hour difference time zone.  Minnesota's Brian Flores runs a complicated defense that has a great track record against inexperienced QBs.  The Browns are also starting the two lowest rated tackles in football.  Are there risks here?  Ummm yeah.  Minnesota has three offensive linemen out, and they haven't been good anyway.  That's not great news against the Browns and Myles Garrett.  Oh, and they just put their center on the IR with a concussion so they have to start their third stringer.  How are either of these teams going to move the ball?  I have no idea, but I'll tell you this.  The Browns are going to try to run the ball... a lot.  Give me Judkins OVER 18 Rushing Attempts.  What do rookie QBs do?  Panic and run the ball.  In college last year, Gabriel typically took off and ran at least three times a game for moderate yardage.  We don't need much here.  Dillon Gabriel over 15 yards rushing.   

I don't think the Chiefs are very good.  All of these NFL dynasties eventually come to an end, and it feels like this is a Kansas City version of a rebuild.  Jacksonville has a pretty good offensive line that has kept Lawrence clean and that makes a huge difference for that dude.  Kansas City has one of the worst D lines in the NFL, so that matchup is going to be a tough one.  I absolutely hate putting money on Jacksonville, but I don't know how the Chiefs finesse their way out of this one. Monday Night at home and getting 3.5 points seems perfect to win a bet as you watch the Jags lose by three on a FG at the end.  Jacksonville +3.5

Current Record:  3-10

     

Here Cometh The Ice Man and NFL Week 4

 

I was in France last week and watched some of the NFL Sunday in a Paris sports bar.  The downside of watching NFL in a Euro Sports Bar is you have to wait for the Premier League matches to end or everyone gets (rightfully) pissed when the TV starts showing Jags v Commanders.  I like seeing what passes for American culture interpreted by another country like a sports bar.  They had wings and pizza and shit like that, but it wasn't that "this might kill you" version of a wrap.  It was more dainty.  They just don't understand one of the pillars of American culture, which is "if 1 is good, 17 is better".  A chicken wrap is fine with their little serving of chicken in it, but it can't compare with our version of two chickens, bacon, three cheeses, some kind of Ranch Fiesta Sauce and a mountain of fries.  They did their best I guess, but they need to dial up the gluttony meter.   I had a good time over there though.  I have a whole discussion of being at harvest in Chinon on my MW blog if you are so inclined here: https://doomedmwquest.blogspot.com/2025/09/harvest-in-chinon.html

I have been fortunate enough to be very well traveled.  I've been from Shang-hai to London to Berlin to Belize.  However, one of my biggest memories will always be when two unthinkable special teams plays happened almost simultaneously to allow me to lose that Rams and Packers bets.  I could not have handicapped those games any better.  For 59 minutes those games were money in my pocket... until they weren't.  Let's not mince words.  That fucking sucked some major donkey dick, if I may be so eloquent.  I am so cold, I am considering changing all of my email handles to "Ice Man@whatever.com".   I'm just going to have to "trust the process" and turn this ship around this week.  

It's fair to say up front that three weeks ago I got on Green Bay who is going to Dallas.  The market has the game as Green Bay -7 but I'm in at Green Bay -2.5. A word to the wise, you can often get on games early with weak lines a few weeks out.  The risk is if Jordan Love falls into a well and breaks his spine or something, but in this case it was so early in the season that people still thought the Cowboys would be good.  I can't imagine that Green Bay after handing that win to Cleveland last week isn't going to be focused and motivated to handle the Cowboys this week.  I'm delighted to be sitting Green Bay -2.5 though.

We all know Tennessee is bad.  Did you know that the Titans are 3-17 ATS in their last 20?  How much longer will this franchise keep this fiasco going?  17 of 20 games your team performed below expectation.  It's so bad that Houston is giving a touchdown at home to Tennessee and Houston is 0-3.  This is the first time since 1989 that an NFL team that was 0-3 was favored by a touchdown.  Dec 8th of last year is the last time Tennessee has lost by less than a touchdown.  The Titans are last in yards per play.  Houston has a Top 10 defense.  Houston can't score either but the Titans defense is terrible.  I can't see Houston, in what is a MUST WIN game for them, laying an egg here.  It's a divisional game and those can get a little weird, so I am going to tie them into another game.

The Giants, in full "we are going to all lose our jobs" panic mode are tossing Dart out to make his first start against the Chargers.  I don't know why you would do that to that kid, but this is what's happening.  I hate to bet on West Coast teams playing early games as that can often result in flat performances.  Maybe the Giants eek out a cover here, but Dart is going to be a large variance in this game.  I am going to tie these two together with Houston/LA Chargers money line parlay and take the "safe" bet that will likely bite me in the ass.    

Who knew that the Colts v Rams would be a big game in Week 4.  Daniel Jones is playing so well that he looks positively franchise worthy, confirming my suspicions that the Colts staff knows what they are doing.  The Rams look like a playoff team to me, and if not for a flukey finish would be 3-0 after that Eagles game.  This could have been a possible flat spot for LA, but I think they'll come in with a huge effort.  On the other hand, I think the Colts might be the best team in the South as long as they can keep Richardson off the field.  I think the total is too low with people thinking these defenses (which have played some shitty teams) are better than they are.  I jumped on that Over 47 as soon as I saw it, but even at 49 I like it.  Rams/Colts OVER 47.

Current record:  3-7

Futbol, Football and NFL Week 3

 

I'm on a train in France trying to make sense of this NFL slate this week despite steamrolling into the highly anticipated Paris FC v Strasbourg match, sort of the French version of a Falcons v Bears game.  It's nice to be out of the country for a break.  I looked at the paper this morning thinking about that quote I recently read that said something like "Now Americans will understand how Nazi Germany happened as one third of the nation performs cruelties on another third while the last third stands and watches".  Just for those keeping score at home on the Dictatorship board, we've got state controlled media, loss of free speech, state prosecution of political foes, scapegoating of fringe groups, masked federal police tossing people in vans, loss of due process, troops on city streets and rewards for total loyalty so there's not much left to accomplish.  Congratulations America, you are now Turkey.  Next stop?  Who knows.  The great news is that there will be a stadium filled with drunk ass Browns fans singing "Proud To Be An American" in the 4th quarter as the Browns are down 34-10.  Bread and circus baby!  

I can't do anything about my ever diminishing feeling of pride I used to have for my country, but what I can do is embrace one of our nation's highest values... gambling on NFL Football!  (Cue "Proud To Be An American"). I am getting on the Rams today versus Philadelphia.  The Eagles are probably going to be one of the four left standing at the end, but they aren't playing that well right now.  They're 2-0 so no one really thinks about how they were in a close game with Dallas that had to fight to the death with the Giants, and looked unimpressive playing a Kansas City team that finally looks like they'll have to suffer a minor rebuild.  The Rams are sneaky good.  Their problem is I can't see how they play 17 regular season games with a 37 year old QB that has a fucked up disc in his back.  Stafford will be his version of healthy today though, and that's all that matters.  I'll take McVeigh on this game to outcoach the Philly staff after their Super Bowl reshuffle.  LA Rams +3.5     

If I had to choose one team to win the NFC right now, that would be Green Bay.  It's a young team on the rise, good QB, good coach, and a disruptive pass rush.  The Browns haven't been able to move the ball convincingly on a crappy Bengals D or the Ravens coming off having Buffalo drop 40+ on them.  How does Joe Flacco, a 40 year old QB that looks like a 40 year old guy playing QB, create time crunching drives with that offensive line?  The Browns defense looks much better than the offense, but to win this game they will need to create game changing turnovers.  When faced with the option of being on the side of the Browns getting lucky or Green Bay coming in and being the better team, I'll take the latter.  I am going to pay the tax and take a point on this as insurance.  Green Bay -6.5

They say that the best bets are the ones that make you uncomfortable.  This must be a great one because I am going to take the Saints today.  Let's not mince words.  The Saints blow.  However, they do have offensive weapons who, though usually hurt, are healthy today in Olave and Kamara.  Spencer Rattler is playing like a poor man's Gardiner Minshew, not a great compliment but I'm trying here.  He's been sorta better than expected, almost a "we can maybe win with him" but certainly not a "he will make us win" guy.  Seattle is playing so conservatively as if they already have buyer's remorse on Sam Darnold.  This game should be low scoring, boring, and close.  Don't get me wrong, the Saints will end up losing but not by more than a touchdown.  New Orleans +7.5 

Current record: 3-4

History All Over Again and NFL Week 2

 

Like most everyone, I've been preoccupied with the Charlie Kirk shooting.  I'll admit that until the shooting, I only had a vague idea of who he was.  I had seen some of those "Prove Me Wrong" videos online where he slams a hammer on college kids with overly simplistic and well rehearsed bar room comebacks.  To me he was always just part of that MAGA grifter tent village that orbits around Trump looking for a buck and more clicks in the attention economy that dominates the world of 20 year olds.  Charlie Kirk seemed like one of those Dunning Krueger effect debate guys that you see in high school that smugly think they're an expert on something because they saw a couple youtube videos on a topic and wave away more nuanced deeper understanding as inconvenient.  When I was a high school sophomore, I would absolutely dominate in a classroom debate on a topic like the Death Penalty.  That shit is easy when you're thinking like a teenager.  When you gain some life experience is when you realize it's not an accident that topics like abortion, capital punishment, Middle East, etc have various pros/cons that make things much more complicated than the world of provocateur speakers like Kirk would have you believe.

Like most of our societally accepted daily national gun murders, this didn't make much sense.  As soon as it happened I thought "I wonder where they are going to find the white guy in his twenties that did this" as that is 99/100 who the shooter turns out to be.  Sure as shit, it's a 22 year old gun loving suburban kid that dressed as Trump for Halloween and spends WAYYYY too much time on the internet.  Just as predictably, our beloved leader then went on Fox News to blame "radical left extremists" to further divide and inflame the edgy population.  Now I'm not sure how you box this 22 year old Mormon that appears to be a radicalized right wing gamer kid into a hardcore left radical especially since he lives in fucking rural Utah, but that's what we are going with on this.  That means that whatever pretzel logic the Fox Viewer will need to do to spread further hate online will take about 12 hours, and we can nestle in for more shooting and killing from white suburban males.  The only way you can believe that purple hair urban baristas confused about their sexuality are going to bring the downfall of the country is to have never been inside an independent coffee shop or punk rock bar in your life.  However, every dipshit with a beard in a pickup truck and grandmas in assisted living will be convinced that everyone except the suburban white male in his twenties that pulls every trigger is somehow responsible for all crimes.    

I don't know how a suburban white guy shooting another suburban white guy will turn into ICE agents herding brown people and cross dressers into "detention centers", but that's where we are going.  "They" are going to get blamed, and you better not get lumped into being one of "them" or you're gonna get fucked.  As a guy that has read a great deal of German history from 1918-1939, I can tell you with great confidence that USA 2025 bears an uncanny resemblance to Germany in 1936 except our version is dumbed down as a "brought to you by Wal Mart/WWE/Marvel" vibe.  We are all getting used to having the military on the streets like it's no big deal.  The federal private police force ICE has a larger budget than all armies on the earth except our own and China.  Remember when we were freaking out about Iraq's army during the Gulf War?  The masked goons in ICE have a bigger budget.  The German circle of power in the 30s is eerily reminiscent of the podcasters, flunkies and tv hosts sitting atop the pedestals of power today.  The administration ignores the courts and the opposition hasn't quite grasped that the guys in power have tossed out the rulebook.  The country you grew up in is o-v-e-r.  This is a new age my friend where anything goes, and if you're not in the clique, you ain't getting paid.  It will be a short run as that comet burns across the sky, but the money is flowing and you can deny it all later.   

That leaves you with the choice to watching Rome burn OR watching the Cardinals kick the Panthers in the fucking teeth.  Me?  I'm watching that.  I am of the impression that the Panthers might be worse than everyone thought.  That weird flicker of life they had at the end of the year seems like an anomaly and not a trend.  All those player rating services like Pro Football Focus, though flawed, are in agreement that the Panthers various units all sit in the bottom 20% of every metric.  The Jaguars, who aren't exactly elite, handled the Panthers easily.  The Cardinals just beat the Saints on the road, so why won't they smack the Panthers around in Arizona?  Bad teams don't win on the road.  Arizona -6.

In Week 2 I like to look for teams that I know are good that lost in Week 1.  Good teams usually don't  start 0-2.  KC is 0-1 but I'm not sprinting to the window to bet them against the Eagles.  This could be the fall off the cliff year for Kansas City.  Baltimore lost to Buffalo, but let's be honest... We know the Ravens are legit.  You have to like them against a Browns team that is probably better than national opinion thinks they are, or at least until they put in a rookie QB.  I have some concerns about the point spread on that Ravens game because the Browns defense might be for real, and they know how to play Lamar.  In the last four years that Browns/Ravens series is 4-4.  I just can't see the Ravens losing another game after that heartbreaking loss to Buffalo.  The Browns offense is NOT the Bills offense, and then I saw a Browns safety poke the Bear and say Derrick Henry wasn't hard to tackle.  I don't know why you would do that.  I want to tie that game into a parlay with another 0-1 team.  I'm thinking Lions.  Detroit might not be as good as last year, but they didn't disintegrate after being 15-2.  The Packers look like an elite team at this point so that loss in Green Bay isn't terrible.   Baltimore/Detroit money line parlay.

Let's be honest though...  The Packers made the Lions look bad last week.  Let's also face another fact.  The Bears are NOT the Packers.  I have to think Dan Campbell has the boys all whipped up and ready for action in the home opener.  I think this Lions team is not as good as last year, and the schedule is very challenging.  Still, they should be a playoff team.  Monday Night the Bears looked like... well... the Bears.  This doesn't look like a team that goes on the road and beats good teams.  They look like a team that beats up on the Panthers and the Titans and the Giants.  Detroit-6.  

Current Record:  1-3