Bad Bunny and NFL Week 6.

 

I am getting absolutely pummeled by extreme political viewpoints, right and left, because I will look at various passionate takes about what is going on in the country.  It's really tiring to wake up each day to face whatever new EMERGENCY that the algorithm has created for me each morning.  Can I be frank about something?  Almost everyone is a fucking idiot.  I can't figure out if the various TV hosts, podcasters and plastic surgery disasters that are the front people for the Shit Show in DC believe what they say or not.  Take the political theater going on where the National Guard is being sent into situations that aren't a problem the National Guard can fix.  The obvious takeaway is that the inept Christian Nationalist Grifters in Washington are hoping to provoke some kind of event so they can send in more troops everywhere and presumably bully themselves into everlasting power and teet sucking with never ending martial law.  I mean... that's not going to work because the population is so disengaged that unless you start shooting people or fucking with rush hour traffic, no one cares.  Meanwhile, the Far Left, who are as organized as a Phish drum circle, like to talk about having a bunch of big protests and doing... something... about... something... BUT as long as everyone gets their streaming service to their phone, nobody gives a fuck.  Hillbillies in their play army ICE getup zip tie citizens all over the place, Trump can sell watxhes from the Oval Office, the Epstein Files can just sit there, and the government can shut down because rich people want more tax money instead of allowing sick people healthcare.  The major concern appears to be Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl.  

A quick note about Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl...  I do not understand how the people that are upset about Bad Bunny doing the Super Bowl halftime don't see themselves as an updated version of people shaking their fists at those damn hippies at Woodstock or quaking in fear as the Sex Pistols came off the plane to tour the United States.  How can you be unaware of how out of touch and ridiculous you look demanding "real music" like Lee Greenwood at the Super Bowl?  When I see Speaker Mike Johnson, the squarest motherfucker of the 2020s, pipe in with what he thinks should be the band at halftime, I know the nation has lost touch with any lesson of the past.  Look, I have no idea what Bad Bunny exactly sounds like, but I do know A LOT of people like him and the Super Bowl is MASS ENTERTAINMENT.  Someone is always going to be pissed at whoever is chosen to perform.  Just settle the fuck down and check the guy out. Maybe you'll like it.  You probably won't, but it won't kill you either way.  It's 20 minutes of your life while you're chowing down on wings losing your parlay.  I do know one thing for certain, which is I'm not giving Mike Johnson control of the music at any party.  Fucking dork.    

Let's move onto important subjects, the continued struggle of the NFL.  It has been VERY frustrating to be essentially on the mark with the handicap and still lose.  That Arizona loss to Tennessee was 99.9% an Arizona victory with 3 minutes left according to people that track these things.  The last "least likely" games to have come up loser like that were two weeks ago, the CLE/GB and Rams/PHIL games, all three of which I was on the wrong side of.  I need to trust the process and plod ahead.  Let's get to it...

I have never seen a spot like the Browns playing the Steelers this week.  The Browns are coming off a short week with jet lag to go play a road game.  The Steelers are coming off a bye.  How did the NFL do that to the Browns?  Making matters worse, this will be Dillon Gabriel's first real road start.  The last Browns QB to win a regular season game in Pittsburgh was Tim Couch.  That is not a misprint.  They have lost 18 games in a row.  Eighteen.  Mike Tomlin is also 18-4 versus rookie QBs ATS at home in Pittsburgh.  The Browns traded their Game 1 starting QB in division, and traded CB Greg Newsome, a former first rounder for contractual reasons.  Now there is a QB controversy between a shitty 3rd round draft pick and shitty 5th round draft pick. There are still three starting O linemen out.  The white flag waving in the first week of October is early, even for Cleveland.  How the fuck are the Browns going to win this game?  Pittsburgh money line. 

OK, this makes me uneasy but I'm on the Dolphins.  Hear me out on this.  This has to be the low market on the Dolphins.  They look inept.  The coach seems like he relapsed or something.  Remember a couple years ago when he was quirky and a genius, and now he just seems like a little fella in way over his head that needs help?  The Chargers are still horribly injured.  They have both tackles out, their starting running back gone for the season, and dinged up guys all over the defense.  Are the Chargers "better" than the Dolphins?  Probably.  Are they "better" than the Dolphins right now?  I don't think so.  It's a West Coast team flying to Miami for a 1pm kickoff to roast in the sun.  Miami +4.5 is just too many points.   

This feels really square but I am getting on New England over the Saints.  The Patriots are getting better each week.  Meanwhile the Saints look like they might be better than expected after beating the Giants, but to those of you that didn't watch that game (i.e. EVERYONE), the only reason they won was the Giants turned the ball over five times in a row to start the second half.  The Saints are terrible and the only way they can win is if the team they are playing turns it over deep three+ times.  I think the Patriots grind out a businesslike win here and keep their Wild Card dreams alive.  New England -3.

Season Record:  5-12 

The Big Turnaround and NFL Week 5

 

Good lord have I been ice cold on these NFL bets.  I can't ever remember a streak as bad as this one.  There was a guy I knew that ran a car dealership.  He had bought into some "pick advisor" a long time ago, one of those Vegas based tout services that used to have 800 numbers to try and rope you into paying for picks.  He had used the service for a couple of weeks and had done pretty well, like 65% or something.  He decided to just go for it on Thanksgiving weekend with these guys picks and went an astounding 2-19.  He lost so much money he had to sell some of his appliances and his wife's car.  It put what was referred to as "a strain on his marriage".  See?  Things could be worse.

I used to work with these guys in radio that had management take their sales staff on a trip to Vegas after they hit some bullshit sales goal.  One of the guys was a total degenerate, sort of a Chris Farley lookalike.  In true radio industry fashion, they had been given a small budget to make it happen, so the guys on the staff decided to book into the Frontier, well known as the dingiest place on the strip in the 1990s.  It was the kind of place where you'd get chips that had cigarette burns on them sometimes.  The whole place smelled like mold and smoke and urinal cakes.  So the Chris Farley guy was so jacked up that he had his co-workers hold his place in the check-in line as he laid down some bets on roulette.  He had noticed the wheel had come up Red on the last five rolls.  He bet black.  It came up red again.  Loser.  He decided to double up and get his money back.  He bet black.  It came up red once again.  Loser.  Now he's all in as this had taken a big chunk of his bank roll.  He puts the rest of his money in to "get his money back".  He bets black.  There is no way it would hit red 8 times in a row.  It hits red.  Loser.  He hadn't even checked in and he's busted.  He's got three days in the shittiest hotel in Vegas with NO money.  He checks into his room, bunked in with a Ned Flanders type guy.  He's cautious to a fault, afraid of even offering an opinion in the off chance it could put him in some sort of risk.  The Chris Farley guy is furious and knocking back a six pack he forced Ned Flanders to buy him on the way up.  Ned leaves Farley to his misery and walks around The Strip to take pictures.  On his way back to the room, he finds a quarter in his pocket so he puts it in the slot machine by the elevator.  He wins $3000.  He practically sprints back to the room eager to share his good fortune with Chris Farley.  "Look!  Look!  Look!  I won $3000 on a quarter slot!"  Farley turns his head slowly and says "If you don't get the fuck out of here I swear to Christ I will beat your head open on the bathroom sink."

See?  Things could be worse.  However, if you want to make some $$$ I'd bet the total opposite of these picks.

It's time to get back to basics.  Let's bet against bad teams.  The Titans are 3-18 against the spread since the start of the Callahan Era.  Why those dipshit kids of the deceased Titans owner decided to get rid of Vrabel and bring in this guy is beyond me.  Cam Ward looks like a bust.  They have different people calling screen passes, runs and passing plays.  This whole thing is bad in Nashville.  I will take Arizona at home hoping I am not the reason why the Titans start to turn it around.  Arizona -7.5

Browns new starting QBs are 0-16 on their first start.  They are not exactly setting Dillon Gabriel for success starting him on a short week against a team already acclimated to the six hour difference time zone.  Minnesota's Brian Flores runs a complicated defense that has a great track record against inexperienced QBs.  The Browns are also starting the two lowest rated tackles in football.  Are there risks here?  Ummm yeah.  Minnesota has three offensive linemen out, and they haven't been good anyway.  That's not great news against the Browns and Myles Garrett.  Oh, and they just put their center on the IR with a concussion so they have to start their third stringer.  How are either of these teams going to move the ball?  I have no idea, but I'll tell you this.  The Browns are going to try to run the ball... a lot.  Give me Judkins OVER 18 Rushing Attempts.  What do rookie QBs do?  Panic and run the ball.  In college last year, Gabriel typically took off and ran at least three times a game for moderate yardage.  We don't need much here.  Dillon Gabriel over 15 yards rushing.   

I don't think the Chiefs are very good.  All of these NFL dynasties eventually come to an end, and it feels like this is a Kansas City version of a rebuild.  Jacksonville has a pretty good offensive line that has kept Lawrence clean and that makes a huge difference for that dude.  Kansas City has one of the worst D lines in the NFL, so that matchup is going to be a tough one.  I absolutely hate putting money on Jacksonville, but I don't know how the Chiefs finesse their way out of this one. Monday Night at home and getting 3.5 points seems perfect to win a bet as you watch the Jags lose by three on a FG at the end.  Jacksonville +3.5

Current Record:  3-10