It's Just Fine, NFL Championship Weekend

 

There is a friend of mine that owns a small business which imports products from Europe.  He doesn’t like to talk about politics because either he dislikes the potential conflict it brings or feels under-informed to  confidently participate in the conversation.  He voted for Trump last year, something that was clearly not in his best interests, mainly because of the views of his support network of people from his hometown.  When confronted about his choice he generally wavered between the position of “all candidates are the same anyway” and “I don’t like Kamela’s laugh” (which probably means “I don’t like women in power and/or her skin pigment” but that’s saying the quiet part out loud).  After the election when things appeared to be veering into an extreme that was somehow unexpected, his business suffered from tariffs.  Like many people, he pivoted to the mindset of “I don’t really pay attention to politics” as if avoiding bad news will somehow make you immune to the impact of it.  This seems to be a common tactic employed by people now to lean into disengagement as if that will allow not only the freedom to avoid reality but to also downplay consequence of their own inaction.  And so as anyone who has read a history book predicted, we find ourselves today with a prototype Fascist leader in full blown cognitive decline ready to burn it all down around him.  Meanwhile, the herd watch Tik Tok videos assuming everything will somehow work out OK.  Check out this new dance.  

There is a false assumption afoot that the systems we created as a society will prevent “really bad things” from happening to us.  As there has never been tangible negative consequences felt by most people from national policy actions, therefore the expectation is that it’s all a game.  Real misery and loss is something that can be swiped away on your device.  On to the next funny dog video or fashion tip.  It’s all for you to consume.  The disconnect is that people don’t understand that the systems you have taken for granted to make things work out just fine for you aren’t working any longer.  They have been dismantled by greed heads, monsters and zealots.  There is a Doom Cult and you’re in it whether you remember joining or not.  Everything you have taken for granted is about to be given away by an 80 year old reality tv star/failed casino operator/convicted sex criminal.  Sit back and take in the sights.  If you make it to the other side you’re going to want to remember the details in your “way it used to be” stories you’ll tell to a disbelieving audience of young people.

After yet another normal person got murdered in the street by masked Federal government goons, the gaslighting from The State has edged into "brazen" from the already unbelievable position of "really fucking absurd".  This week you will see people that you know begin to parrot the Right Wing alternate reality world talking points of "Who brings a gun to an event like this anyway, he was going to murder law enforcement!" (as if two minutes ago that same media source wasn't shrieking about how everyone everywhere should be allowed to strap on guns, second amendment rights, blah blah blah).  Even worse, you'll see some stupid "breakdown of the tape" like this is a disputed NFL catch where the general thinking is if you talk confidently enough you will be able to talk away the obvious evidence of that guy getting beaten/shot/murdered from multiple angles and somehow say it was his fault.  The worst people of all though will be the ones that say "I heard something about that, but I'm not really a News Person" as a hedge to see if they can just ride this out with micro influencer reels and Volcano Quesaritos.  It's a grim time, but it's what America does.  

A quick reminder that when the Kent State shootings happened, a Gallup poll taken the day after the shootings reportedly showed that 58 percent of respondents blamed the students, 11 percent blamed the National Guard, and 31 percent expressed no opinion.  Although it's hard to imagine that a majority of people thought it was OK that American military troops fired rifles on a group of college students, to me the most amazing stat is about a third were "Eh, I don't really have an opinion on that".  Of course, this time there are multiple video angles, so the mental gymnastics needed to blame the dead guy are going to be more difficult to summon up.  I will say this. From my years in marketing I can tell you, people see what they want to see.  That brings me to perhaps the biggest and most important point I have to make today.  Why do people think the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham is no big deal today?

That's right!  We aren't going to let a little state sponsored murder impact our Championship Sunday!  I've been reading and listening to a lot from "The Sharps" about the Broncos v New England game.  I should note that "Sharps" basically means "syndicated sports talk show host, guy with a podcast, or ex-athlete that needs to fill a segment".  The narrative that has coalesced is this:  Jarrett Stidham (a.k.a. "Stiddy") was a top priority signing for Denver when Sean Peyton arrived.  Peyton LOVES the guy.  Stiddy was drafted by Belichick, coveted by Gruden and signed to a high paid (for a backup) deal with Denver because he is so capable.  He's really good.  The fact that the line moved from Denver being favored by 1.5 to them being a 4 point underdog is crazy.  Bo Nix isn't worth 5.5 points!  That's just too many points.  You HAVE TO take Denver.  I don't know if the Broncos will win, but 5 points is just too many.   

Allow me to offer a counter narrative.  Jarrett Stidham has not played a down of professional football since 2023.  He has started four games in the NFL and went 1-3.  If Stidham is so fucking good, why did the Patriots, after Brady left, trade him to the Raiders for a 6th round pick in 2022?  The Patriots signed broken down Cam Newton instead of playing Stidham.  Why then didn't the Raiders hold onto him in 2023 when they soured so badly on Derek Carr they released him outright?  Then the Broncos, in the midst of horrible QB play from Russell Wilson, didn't put Stidham in until two weeks before the end of the season when the Broncos released Wilson strictly for financial reasons.  Stidham has played only because teams have had no other option, just like the Broncos today.  Now, let's also take into account that you're starting a guy that hasn't played a down of football in over two years, only started 4 games in his career, and then said "Good news.  You're the starting QB in the AFC Championship game.  Think about that all week and don't get tight."  Stidham's biggest start up until now was either the Peach Bowl against UCF in 2017 (lost 34-27 ) or Nov 24, 2018 when he led Auburn against Alabama (Lost 52-21).  

People will bitch about the Patriots weak schedule, but you can only play who is on your schedule.  The Patriots went 14-3, and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games.  Denver is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.  The Broncos escaped with close victories over the Raiders, Chiefs, and Washington.  Hell, Denver should have lost to Buffalo last week.  Why are the Broncos going to just show up with Stiddy and take care of business?  We spend all year talking about quarterback, quarterback, quarterback and now that just doesn't matter?  If these teams are both full strength, I'm still probably leaning New England here anyway.  Drake Maye is a huge advantage in this game and yet everyone is talking Stidham.  New England is top 8 in whatever team metrics you want, and Denver had a shitty offense with Nix much less with what I'm supposed to believe is the second coming of Johnny Unitas in Jarrett Stidham.  New England -4 is the side here.     

The game I feel most strongly about is the Seattle v Rams game.  Seattle is easily the best team left in this tournament.  If this game was about a month ago, I would probably have gone Rams.  They just don't look like the same team to me.  I think the Rams are more beat up and injured than is being reported, especially Stafford.  He just doesn't look like the same guy.  Now I know they will shoot him up with a bunch of goo-goo juice to get out there today, but that Seattle defense is looking top flight.  On all the metrics the Seahawks are having one of the best overall seasons of any team in the last three decades.  Now toss in that the Rams are playing their sixth road game in seven weeks, and you have a tremendous rest advantage for Seattle.  Sure, we all have Sam Darnold questions swirling around our heads, but Darnold doesn't have to win this game.  He just has to not lose it.  I really like Seattle -2.5      

Current record:  39-32