Sucking On Chili Dogs
I was doing yard work today, the sun straining to give the illusion of summer heat, the unmistakeable tinge of Autumn's arrival creeping in on the sides. The end of summer is tough in NE Ohio, where the move is more severe than most places that don't have the abrupt shift to cool temperatures that arrive with Labor Day like the flick of a light switch. I use a push mower and let the sound of the angry machine act as a white noise to allow my mind to drift. I've come up with a bunch of our well known songs while mowing, ideas that pop into my head out of nowhere. I tried to let my head empty as I mowed up a combination of suddenly green grass and crispy brown early fallen leaves.
I must have been thinking about the end of summer, summer songs, and that sort of thing when John Mellencamp's "Jack and Diane" came into my head like an unwanted jukebox selection. You know, as much as I've tried to avoid that song, it's really pretty good. That vibe of an Indiana Tastee Freeze with the young couple hanging out is pure Midwestern summer. It captures that moment of teenage purity with impending adulthood and more serious consequences of actions in a light way in the verses with a real bummer of a chorus. "Life goes on, long after the thrill of living is gone". Damn, that's really good. But the line that obscures that killer chorus is that chili dog verse. You know the one... "suckin on a chili dog outside the Tastee Freeze".
It's an interesting word choice that "suckin". It's not like every inch of that monster corporate record wasn't debated by the label. Mellencamp, a known and admitted red ass, knew what he was doing there. Why didn't he use something more literal for chili dog consumption like "chompin" or "bitin" or "wolfin" or "chewin"? Did he use "suckin" to get your headspace into Diane was down with blowing Jack and maybe wasn't so innocent a debutante? Or was he trying to set a tone of unsatisfied youthful sexual energy? Look, I have had my share of chili dogs over the years, and not once did I "suck on a chili dog". Maybe that's some sort of Indiana technique I don't know about. Maybe it's a nod to recent dental work that required a more gentle eating approach. I don't know. Anyway, that's what I was thinking about as I cut the grass this afternoon.
What I should have been thinking about was my NFL over/unders. My beloved Milwaukee Brewers came in on their over this week. That White Sox under bet is dead in the water, so I'm even there. Now it just comes down to the Guardians winning 79+ games. THAT is going to be tight as they have sort of tossed the towel in on the season and are kinda sorta trying to make the Playoffs in September. I really don't want to be white knuckling a Guardians v Texas Rangers game on Sept 27th, but here we are. Regardless of the outcome, that position I took on that one was mild next to the multi app steam I put on the other two. That leaves me some more room for the NFL totals.
As I have noted, I am on the Saints UNDER 7.5 wins, a total I can't believe I got down. They are going to suck so fucking bad. How is Spencer Rattler going to drive you to victory? Rattler is 0-7 in his NFL starts. He will go 0-4 and then turn it over to that shit rookie they drafted for continued dismal results. I am also on Matt Stafford UNDER 3650 passing yards. The Rams are already talking about Jimmy G starting a couple games so Stafford can make it though the season. Sure, that's all you need with a fucked up disc in your back. You can just rest a week and then get right back in there and get hit by 300 pound monsters and you'll be fine. No problem there. If you can still find that line, get down on that.
I like to look for UNDERS. This is the NFL, when things tend to go poorly as opposed to miraculously well. If a team takes injuries, they're doomed. That's a built in edge for unders. Someone that has caught my attention is the Carolina Panthers. Colin Cowherd was riffing that they could win 10 games this year. There is this narrative that the Panthers relative good finish last year portends a leap to respectability in 2025. Bryce Young came back and was... OK? There's this collective amnesia about what really happened there. After Thanksgiving the Panthers went 2-5 which included a meaningless win in the last week vs the Falcons. They beat Arizona, Giants and the Spencer Rattler led Saints. Not exactly murderer's row there. They got smoked by Dallas at the end of the year 30-14 which is BAD. Tampa beat 'em 48-14. So what are the Panthers exactly and why are they going to go OVER 6.5 wins?
The Panthers finished dead last in defense on points allowed. They allowed the most yards. They allowed the most rushing yards. The good news is they were only 29th in pass defense, probably because no one bothered to pass since they could run the ball so easily. The offense sucked too. They were 23rd overall in yardage, 24th in points and 31st in passing yards. Why are they at 6.5 wins when they went 5-12 last season with one of those wins a preseason game type win? Surely they must have signed some monster free agents and upgraded massively with the draft!
So the Panthers spent a bunch of money on two offensive guards, which was odd in that their offensive line was ranked 7th by Pro Football Focus. The Panthers are operating under the idea that if they protect little Bryce Young, everything is going to be just great. They drafted a big deal rookie receiver from Arizona that split the scouts between "the guy is gonna be awesome" and "I don't know about this guy". They signed RB Travis Etienne, which would have been awesome three years ago. Essentially they threw seven new guys into the defense with a plan the Cleveland Browns have often used called "They gotta be better than what we had" which doesn't always deliver like you'd hoped. I dunno. It feels like everyone sort of decided the Panthers would be better because that's what we all decided for some reason. They went 0-3 in the presesason and struggled to score points. The rookie receiver had the second worst grade of any receivers in the preseason 87th out of 89. They traded Adam Theilen so the Panthers don't seem too concerned. I'm looking long and hard at an Under 6.5 wins here. That Panthers organization sucks hard. Sucks chili dog hard. I might juice this up to Under 7.5 wins. In the last decade the Panthers have won 8 games only once. Carolina Panthers UNDER 7.5 wins