Sunday, December 6, 2015

Nurse the Hate: Hate the NFL Again

I have not been very good at posting my picks the last couple weeks, but things have been going well.  Quite well in fact…  I hit every single game/teaser/parlay on Thanksgiving, which has allowed me to live a more lavish lifestyle than which I am accustomed.  There is the concept of “balling the jack” where the gambler with extreme risk tolerance places 100% of their available money after paying basic necessities on one game.  If that game hits, it’s champagne and steak.  If that’s a loser, it’s whatever horrifying concoction Subway has dreamed up in their intestinal blockage workshop.  It’s an exciting concept that has served me well of late.  I'm driving an outrageously dangerous new car as of last weekend.  I'm pleased.

Let’s get down to it.  It is very difficult to imagine the Browns having a good game on Sunday.  This franchise is at the lowest point since their return in 1999.  That is really saying something.  It’s like a hospital patient with bubonic plague that gets a cancer diagnosis.  While none of the current crop of losers in Berea can remember the last crop of losers they replaced or the troglodytes that they replaced before them, it’s still the lowest of the low out there.  After a humiliation on Monday night, the Browns just don’t seem to have the basic pride or even passive interest in competition to play with the Bengals on Sunday.  I think the Browns get pasted on Sunday.  I am going to hedge a bit and tease it with New England over the Eagles as the Pats haven’t lost two games in a row since Steve Grogan was QB and Irving Fryer got stabbed by his wife.  Cincinnati -9.5 and Cincy -3.5/New England -3.  The Browns may never win again.

I am going to take the Saints with the points over Carolina.  I think with Carolina beating the crap out of Dallas on national TV last weekend, the passive gambler will get on board the Panthers until they lose.  This is the nature of things and why Vegas is a sparkly oasis in the dust.  Which side do you want to be on this one?  The guy working with a name tag or the guys that have Chinese acrobats doing tricks in a 70,000 square foot room with slot machines and free drinks?  I know where my money is going.  The human mind believes that everything will continue on the same course forever.  Until it doesn’t.  While the Panthers will probably win, the Saints will keep it close.  This is not so much betting on the Saints but betting against the public.  The Public is always wrong.  New Orleans +7.

The Houston Texans are going to hurt whoever the Bills line up at quarterback today.  The entire side of the Bills line that has to block JJ Watt is out injured.  That is very bad news for Buffalo.  This means that two backups that can't crack a mediocre starting lineup get to attempt to deal with Watt, a monster that was built in a lab somewhere.  Last week the Saints tried the following... Block Watt one-on-one.  Failed.  Double him.  Failed.  Two linemen and a tight end.  This worked but allowed the Texans to blitz two players every pass play.  24-6 Texans win.  Does it seem possible that Rex Ryan has come up with some fabulous idea on how to deal with this problem with two backup linemen?  I'm thinking not.  I will take the Houston +3 and hope Hoyer doesn't get hurt and allow Weeden into the game. 


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