Nurse the Hate: NCAA Tournament Guesses

There was a time in my life when it was understood that if it was the start of March Madness, I would be sequestered in a Las Vegas sports book making wildly unfounded wagers on college basketball teams I knew almost nothing about.  It was a simpler time then, in many respects.  This was well before we found ourselves in The Information Age, or as I prefer to think of it as "The Misinformation Age".  Most information that was gleaned about these matchups was based on assumptions and gut feeling combined with whatever sports talk nonsense you had allowed to permeate your brain.  As a result, massive sums of money could be bet on such ideas as "The Big 10 is down this year" or "The MAC is better than people think".  As a result, you would be white knuckling it at Caesar's Sports Book with a bunch of other Rubes on Bowling Green +7.5 over New Mexico State without ever really admitting to yourself you had just dropped $100 on a coin flip.  Ah, those were good times...

Now the problem is that there are almost unlimited websites declaring "Five Surefire Tournament Sleepers" and "Bracket Buster Predictions" that are just the internet equivalent of some guy talking shit in the Bally's men's room.  The basic problem is that there are only five people in Americas that watch a ton of college basketball and understand what they are looking at.  The deeper issue is that I have not been able to identify these five people.  As a result, I am just one of the herd betting on shadows, rumors, and totally unfounded opinion.  I would be better off taking my money and investing it in penny stocks.  But what can I do?  This is tradition.

I am going to take Northeastern +8 over Kansas.  Let me be completely honest.  I don't know much about either team.  Kansas has been crappy down the stretch, and I look for teams that are fading instead of getting hot.  Northeastern is one of those schools that has a really good team, but no one has ever heard of the college.  They've won 12 of their last 13, though admittedly two of those wins came over Bryant and Stratton.  Kansas has a team filled with athletic gazelles that should be able to show up and beat almost anyone, but I have gotten sucked into the idea that they are having a "down year".  Hey, that's enough for me.  Northeastern +8

Every single article that I see about the tournament declares "Murray State Hot Sleeper Pick!!!".  I am going to suggest that if every media outlet is declaring Murray State is a surefire underdog lock to win and The Public is lining up behind that thinking, it's time to get on Marquette.  If EVERYONE is on Murray State, it no longer qualifies as a "sleeper", now does it?  This is one of those teams that people like to take in their bracket so later on this weekend they can say things like "Oh, I had Murray State in my bracket" as if that portends a great wisdom.  I swear the Christ, if I hear someone say "Murray State losing killed my bracket", I will break a bottle over their head.  Yes, I will face criminal prosecution, but there isn't a jury in the land that will convict me if I methodically layout the detail of this person's complaining over losing a first round game in a $5 bracket challenge.  Marquette -3.5.

I am going to take Michigan State -18.5.  The one thing that can be counted on is Michigan State being good.  I have no idea who is on the team, but they'll be in the Elite 8.  They are 24-10 ATS in the tournament.  That 18.5 number is a scary one for The Public.  Bradley is not going to have the horses to deal with 40 minutes of Michigan State.  I am sure it will be tight, but this is the kind of game that the network wants to end so they can put something competitive on the screen.  Look for long shots of the sad Bradley bench and peppy end of bench Michigan State guys jacking up threes with two minutes left and a 15 point lead.