Tanking and NFL Final Week Saturday

 

The Cleveland Browns are intentionally tanking.  I know it.  Las Vegas knows it.  The Browns themselves know it.  The line today versus Baltimore is an astounding 20 points.  Even when the Browns went 0-16, they were never an underdog of 20 points.  Quick reminder, this is a team that was talking Playoffs/Super Bowl contention in August.  Yikes.  Things have not gone well.

When you decide to run Bailey Zappe out to start a game after being on your roster for a couple weeks, it tells you one thing.  They are not trying to win.  This is a live tryout to see if they want to bring him in to camp next year as a potential backup or #3.  While it is almost inconceivable that the Ravens lose this game, 20 points is a mind bending number to give an underdog.  Gun to head, I'm taking the Ravens, but I think there's a better way to get at this...

The crux of this game is not only will the Browns be facing a motivated superior team on the road trying to win the conference.  The Browns are approaching this like a preseason game.  In the Browns preseason games, they do not try to win, unlike the Ravens who approach every game like it's the AFC Championship.  Stefanski is always trying to "clean things up".  Ken Dorsey the OC is a goner.  Even if he wanted to call a high variance game and reach deep into the playbook, he can't.  The QB doesn't know all the plays.  I would expect a vanilla gameplan with forced targets to Jeudy and lots and lots and lots of passes to the Tight Ends.  The Browns want to lose and will call a game that appears to be intended to move the ball, but really isn't.  How do you lose?  Don't score.  Browns under 14.5 is what I'm doing, but the under 41.5 isn't bad either if you think the Browns defense plays their hearts out.     

If I win that early game, and the Ravens win easily I will take a look at betting Pittsburgh.  The Public will rush in to bet on Cincinnati if Baltimore wins with the thinking that Pittsburgh will have nothing to play for in that scenario.  I disagree and think that regardless Mike Tomlin is not going to want to roll into the playoffs on a four game losing streak.  I think Pittsburgh plays hard and this turns into a typical AFC North street fight.  Looking to place at Pittsburgh +3.5 or higher... 

Current Record:  34-28-1