Here Cometh The Ice Man and NFL Week 4

 

I was in France last week and watched some of the NFL Sunday in a Paris sports bar.  The downside of watching NFL in a Euro Sports Bar is you have to wait for the Premier League matches to end or everyone gets (rightfully) pissed when the TV starts showing Jags v Commanders.  I like seeing what passes for American culture interpreted by another country like a sports bar.  They had wings and pizza and shit like that, but it wasn't that "this might kill you" version of a wrap.  It was more dainty.  They just don't understand one of the pillars of American culture, which is "if 1 is good, 17 is better".  A chicken wrap is fine with their little serving of chicken in it, but it can't compare with our version of two chickens, bacon, three cheeses, some kind of Ranch Fiesta Sauce and a mountain of fries.  They did their best I guess, but they need to dial up the gluttony meter.   I had a good time over there though.  I have a whole discussion of being at harvest in Chinon on my MW blog if you are so inclined here: https://doomedmwquest.blogspot.com/2025/09/harvest-in-chinon.html

I have been fortunate enough to be very well traveled.  I've been from Shang-hai to London to Berlin to Belize.  However, one of my biggest memories will always be when two unthinkable special teams plays happened almost simultaneously to allow me to lose that Rams and Packers bets.  I could not have handicapped those games any better.  For 59 minutes those games were money in my pocket... until they weren't.  Let's not mince words.  That fucking sucked some major donkey dick, if I may be so eloquent.  I am so cold, I am considering changing all of my email handles to "Ice Man@whatever.com".   I'm just going to have to "trust the process" and turn this ship around this week.  

It's fair to say up front that three weeks ago I got on Green Bay who is going to Dallas.  The market has the game as Green Bay -7 but I'm in at Green Bay -2.5. A word to the wise, you can often get on games early with weak lines a few weeks out.  The risk is if Jordan Love falls into a well and breaks his spine or something, but in this case it was so early in the season that people still thought the Cowboys would be good.  I can't imagine that Green Bay after handing that win to Cleveland last week isn't going to be focused and motivated to handle the Cowboys this week.  I'm delighted to be sitting Green Bay -2.5 though.

We all know Tennessee is bad.  Did you know that the Titans are 3-17 ATS in their last 20?  How much longer will this franchise keep this fiasco going?  17 of 20 games your team performed below expectation.  It's so bad that Houston is giving a touchdown at home to Tennessee and Houston is 0-3.  This is the first time since 1989 that an NFL team that was 0-3 was favored by a touchdown.  Dec 8th of last year is the last time Tennessee has lost by less than a touchdown.  The Titans are last in yards per play.  Houston has a Top 10 defense.  Houston can't score either but the Titans defense is terrible.  I can't see Houston, in what is a MUST WIN game for them, laying an egg here.  It's a divisional game and those can get a little weird, so I am going to tie them into another game.

The Giants, in full "we are going to all lose our jobs" panic mode are tossing Dart out to make his first start against the Chargers.  I don't know why you would do that to that kid, but this is what's happening.  I hate to bet on West Coast teams playing early games as that can often result in flat performances.  Maybe the Giants eek out a cover here, but Dart is going to be a large variance in this game.  I am going to tie these two together with Houston/LA Chargers money line parlay and take the "safe" bet that will likely bite me in the ass.    

Who knew that the Colts v Rams would be a big game in Week 4.  Daniel Jones is playing so well that he looks positively franchise worthy, confirming my suspicions that the Colts staff knows what they are doing.  The Rams look like a playoff team to me, and if not for a flukey finish would be 3-0 after that Eagles game.  This could have been a possible flat spot for LA, but I think they'll come in with a huge effort.  On the other hand, I think the Colts might be the best team in the South as long as they can keep Richardson off the field.  I think the total is too low with people thinking these defenses (which have played some shitty teams) are better than they are.  I jumped on that Over 47 as soon as I saw it, but even at 49 I like it.  Rams/Colts OVER 47.

Current record:  3-7