Sunday, November 24, 2013

Nurse the Hate: NFL Week 12

As last week proved without any doubt, Montgomery the basset hound doesn't know a damn thing.  I should have had my suspicions.  The basset hound, a loving and wildly eccentric  companion, has never been known for their intellect.  Montgomery is a great guy.  Nicest dog on the block.  I love that dog to death.  But between you and me?  He's no genius.  Ultimately I am to blame for putting him in a position to fail.  Though he his probably more capable than most regional managers in corporations, the business of picking winners in the NFL is not for three year old dogs or fools.  What was I thinking?  How could an animal that was primarily focused on ripping apart a plastic squeeky toy have known that the Kansas City Chiefs would have been incapable of moving the ball on the Denver defense?  That's on me.

This week I have spent some time getting deep inside the numbers.  While this will probably backfire on me yet again, I like having the false sense of security that Science is at work.  A game that stands out to me is the Colts at Arizona.  Arizona is giving the Colts three, which seems reasonable for a home team that has won three straight.  However, those three wins are against Jacksonville, Houston, and Atlanta, as they are known collectively as The Crushed Dream Triplets.  The Cards have beaten the crappy teams and lost to the good ones.  The Colts are a good one.  Well, I think they might be...  Indy is 4-1 ATS on the road, having won 6 of their last 8.  Take out that head scratching loss to St Louis at home, and it seems that the Colts are a class level above Arizona.  The Colts secondary is really banged up with the corners and a safety out.  That should lead to a high scoring game that the Colts eek out at the end.  I like the Colts +3 and love the OVER 45.

I'm pretty psyched for the Denver at New England game.  The Public has decided that the Patriots are going to win at home because, presumably, that is what they have done in big games since 1999.  New England is giving Denver 2.5.  Really?  There has been so much hype on the Manning vs Brady aspect of this game, it is easy to forget that those guys aren't actually on the field at the same time.  I am not sure how it is possible to bet against Manning and this magical season he is having in Denver.  If this was the Patriots of five years ago, I get it.  But this Patriot team kinda sucks...  I can already see the Patriots losing their first playoff game with the long lingering camera shots of the disgruntled Tom Brady on the sideline as the clock runs out.  The Patriots are 3-3 in their last six with losses to the Jets and Bengals.  I think Denver is going to attack New England up the middle, and the Patriots will play to keep it a low scoring game with the tactic of "hanging around and maybe something good will happen at the end".  That is probably their only play, but it isn't going to work.  Denver is getting points for the first time this season.  How is this not a pick em game?  I get 9-1 Denver and points?  Sounds good to me.  Denver +2.5.    


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