Saturday, September 6, 2014

Nurse the Hate: NFL 2014 Week 1

I have built up my coffers over the summer with some well placed MLB wagers and World Cup.  I have positioned myself perfectly to now give that money back by wandering into the wilderness of mirrors that is the NFL.  This is a well worn tradition with me at this point.  I know full well I have no hope of winning money on the NFL.  No one does.  It’s a Fool’s Paradise.  There is no edge to be had anywhere in this over exploited circus.  While you may think you know something because ESPN told you (and 27 billion other people) that Cam Newton might not play against Tampa, the guys that make the lines in Vegas have his X-rays and a team of top physicians evaluating them.   You don’t know anything.  There are a bunch of guys sitting in a windowless room in Las Vegas right now laughing about how much money they are going to rake in by manipulating the Dallas line just enough to get suckers like me to say, “Dallas at home with points?  Oh yeah!”.

It should be noted that I don’t now know anything nor have I ever known anything.  This is a different sort of stupidity though.  With only preseason to cloud my judgement, I have the reasoning ability of a tadpole.  I'm just blindly reacting.  The start of the NFL season is different than week eight.  By week eight I will be operating under the false idea that I know what is going on since I watched a bunch of games and listened to equally small brained sports talk show chatter.  I won’t know anything then and I don’t now.  The key is I am openly telling you that for the most part I have no idea who is good and who isn’t.  Yet, this will not stop what is about to happen.  Despite what I have just told you, I think I know something about a couple of teams though.   This will be my downfall just as it has been for years.   

So what do I think I know?

There is no way the Cowboys are going to beat the 49ers.  The Cowboys had a historically bad defense last year.  That’s actually the good news in Dallas.  The bad news is that they lost their three top players off of that shit defense.  Tony Romo, coming off back surgery, is going to have to lead the offense to score 40 points a game every week.  I would also like to point out that two things that don’t go together are recovering from back surgery and being tackled by 300 pound defensive linemen.  The Dallas Cowboys are one big hit away from Brandon Weeden coming in at quarterback.  I will come clean and say though it makes me a bad person to wish ill health on Tony Romo, the spectre of watching Brandon Weeden play QB for the Cowboys all year is maybe my greatest dream as long as we toss out riding a motorcycle nude in a Mardi Gras parade.  I think Dallas is going to be really bad this year, and San Francisco -4 is something to really load up on.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the New York Jets are going to be pretty good.  I don’t mean “win the Super Bowl and get fellated by models in trendy New York nightclubs” good, but more like “Hey, the fucking Jets won again?” good.  I picture them at 9-7 and maybe getting pasted in the first round of the Playoffs.  So, to go 9-7 you have to beat the Raiders at home, and that’s what they are going to do on Sunday.  I’m a little concerned about giving 5.5 points as Geno Smith is right now planning on how to throw some interceptions deep in his own territory.  However, the Raiders are trotting out a rookie QB who gets to make his debut in New York where Jet fans are going to yell out a lot of things about his mom and cocks and stuff.  I’m on the Jets -5.5.

It makes no sense to me that the Houston Texans are -3 to Washington.  As I recall, the Texans had the worst record in the league last year.  Meanwhile Washington has the RG3 fella running around like he does in those soft drink ads.  Washington also has three big time receivers and a legit running game.  This seems like one of those games where the public will load up on the Redskins because when you get down to it, no one is even sure who is on the Texans team.  Washington and RG3 get so much media coverage, it makes you forget that RG3 kind of sucks now and Cousins is probably a better QB.  Meanwhile, the Texans had 117 injuries last year and are only a year removed from being a playoff team.  I think their D-line is going to kick the crap out of Washington’s o-line.  I also think every schmo on the planet is going Washington with the points, which is why I am doing the opposite and taking Houston -3.  I’ll bet by the time this game goes off, it will be Houston -1 or pick ‘em.   Bet close to kickoff on this one.   


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