Sunday, September 14, 2014

Nurse the Hate: NFL 2014 Week 2

This morning there is more chatter about the Ray Rice situation, the role of Roger Goodell, and Adrian Peterson somehow being charged by a grand jury because he swatted his kid with a switch.  I remember when football used to be about the actual games.  Granted, that seems like a really long time ago, but it was better then.  I prefer not knowing anything about the players beyond where they played their college ball.  Almost every football player I knew in college or high school was an asshole, so I have always assumed that these NFL guys are assholes too.  I don't need to know how they are raising their kids or about their fucked up relationships.  I just want to know if the guy can play on Sunday.  Is there some kind of Google filter where I can get less information?  Wasn't life somehow better when the players were whoever you thought they were?  I much preferred the smiling fun-loving Willie Mays I had in my mind than the cranky old man I met in Chicago once.  Say Hey Kid my ass...

This morning I woke up much earlier than intended.  I took the bassets on a long walk which should have in theory provided me time to really break down these games today, but instead I altered between thoughtful rumination and yelling "Monty!  Get out of there!".  The gentle breeze provided just enough push for glassy Lake Erie to make gentle "wooshing" sounds as I considered the rhythms of life, my failure to be cuddled up in bed, the changing of the seasons, and the reality that the New England Patriots are only giving three points to the Vikings today.  Life is funny that way.  Just when you think you have it all figured out, something crazy comes along to reconfigure everything that you considered to be order.

Let me take you through my thought process on this.  We know that gambling institutions attempt to manipulate gambling lines to trick the public into getting on the wrong side.  For example, the general public is used to the Patriots being an elite team, so therefore they assume that they will win all the time.    The Patriots are a favorite here, but at a much smaller line than one would expect.  The Vikings have been pretty shitty for years, and this week their best player Adrian Peterson is out.  One would expect that this line would be New England -7 or more.  However, the line still sits at 3.5.  Easy play, right?  Take the Patriots and cash in!  Ah, but what if that is the trick?  What if Vegas knows that even though the Patriots will probably win, they won't win by more than a field goal?  Therefore, the move is to bet on the Vikings, and outsmart the books.  However, doesn't that seem transparent?  It is so obvious that the line should be higher, the fact that it isn't means that is the line manipulation, and by noticing that the big money players will be lured to bet on the always shitty Vikings.  So just as you get ready to bet the Patriots is when you notice that 85% of the public is on the Patriots, which means they can't possibly win.  The Public, as we know, is always wrong.   To summarize, because the Patriots should win this game the move should be to bet on the Patriots but because the line is so low the real move is to bet on the Vikings which in all reality is the double cross trick so the bet now becomes the Patriots except for the fact that 85% of the consensus is on New England so we are now back to the Vikings.  Minnesota +3.5.

I love betting against Cincinnati.  People I know in Cincinnati also like to bet against Cincinnati.  It is not because they are disloyal, it is because they pay attention.  They know that despite having great talent, the team will somehow go 9-7 and maybe worm into the playoffs where they will be waxed by some lesser team.  This is because Marvin Lewis is the type of coach that can take his and lose to yours, or take yours and lose to his.  He can pull defeat out of the jaws of victory at any moment.  If the Brown family wasn't so cheap, they would have fired him and brought in a real coach years ago, but for the fact that Lewis gets paid in Starbucks gift cards they keep him on.  I love Atlanta +5.5 today, not because I think they are a better team necessarily but because Cincinnati will somehow win by three on a shaky late field goal despite dominating all afternoon.

I am considering taking the Jets +9 at Green Bay later today.  This illustrates why I am, at heart, a fool. I know the Jets cannot provide a winning wager.  I even put it in a lyric of a song in 2004 ("Jesus Walks Beside Me"- The Whiskey Daredevils Greatest Hits).  For a decade or more I have been aware that the New York Jets exist solely to take money from unsuspecting buffoons like myself.  Yet, I sort of think that they might hang in there against Green Bay this afternoon.  Yes, I know Geno Smith will throw a soul crushing interception late in this game to provide the Pack with the easy cover.  It is like I have seen this in a vision.  Yet, it does not matter.  If I break into a bottle of Rhone this afternoon as planned, I will be filled with liquid courage and the euphoria of wine fueled conviction that today is the day the Jets won't let me down.  I would really appreciate it if someone contacts me at 345p this afternoon to talk me down if I try and place this wager.  Jets +9.  Maybe.

2014 season record:  2-1


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