2025 and Wild Card Weekend

 

I quit my job last week after 18 years.  It was sort of like getting out of an abusive relationship where your partner was always telling you how much you needed them and no one could ever love you as they hit you with a stick.  "You make me sick."  Wack.  "You are worthless."  Wack.  "Why are you making me hit you?"  Wack.  As the sinking ship of local broadcast television goes down, I will not be aboard to try to desperately cling to a lifeboat.  Au revoir.  I have de-boarded to try to pass this Master of Wine exam in June (it's almost impossible) and rely on matters of certainty to provide ample cash flow.  I would like to thank Ohio for legalizing sports gambling and Deshaun Watson for allowing me to easily identify his indifference to playing football as an example of such.  That wise investment in Watson's lack of results has helped give me the freedom to do things I want to do as opposed to being shackled to the poor decision making of others.  2025 is shaping up to be MUCH better than 2024.      

"Wild Card Weekend" is back after last year inexplicably being named "Super Wild Card Weekend" as if adding the word "Super" made it somehow even better.  The Wild Card round is always where the teams that aren't quite that good get exposed.  I'm looking at you 2023 Cleveland Browns.  There are six games.  Two will be really good fight-to-the-death games and the other ones tend to be decided very quickly.  You ever get settled in for a game, chili pot bubbling away, and within two minutes it's obvious who is going to win?  I think that game might be the Buffalo v Denver game.

I see the AFC coming down to some variation of Buffalo v Kansas City v Baltimore.  Denver isn't that good.  Every year there is a team on the rise that sneaks into the playoffs, but isn't quite there yet.  Looking at Denver's last month you have them beating the Chiefs second string, losing to Cincinnati, losing to the Chargers, and beating the Browns at home by one score.  Denver went 1-5 versus Playoff teams.  They beat shitty teams but weren't quite good enough to beat the elite in the league.  That's a big ask for them to go into Buffalo and beat the Bills with a rookie QB making his first playoff start. Buffalo -8.5.  Before the Bills second string losing last week, they were 10-1 in their last 11.  The Bills are good and they'll advance.   

I am getting on Minnesota.  Look, that loss last week does have me consider if The Real Sam Darnold is back.  The Lions, who have no defense to speak of, absolutely destroyed Darnold and his confidence in a real asskicking in what might have been the biggest game of Darnold's life.  As stupid as it sounds, this week against the Rams is actually a lower profile game.  I am assuming this game gets played in Phoenix which won't impact Minnesota at all.  All those NFC North teams only lost to each other.  That's the cream of the crop in the NFC.  It's them and Philly with a big drop after that.  You're telling me that the Rams, distracted all week because THEIR CITY IS ON FIRE, are going to be focused on making a surprise road trip and beating a superior team?  The Vikings don't give a shit where their plane lands.  All they know is the team they're playing isn't as good as the Lions.   Minnesota -2.5 

I heard some crazy stats about teams meeting for a third time where their last game was three weeks or less in the past are 14-2 to the over.  Playing Baltimore to go over is always sound advice.  The only concern is if the Pittsburgh offense shows up.  Russell Wilson is looking exceedingly more like the guy the Broncos dumped and George Pickens seems to be morphing into the classic Pittsburgh mentally deranged diva that gets dumped by the team and soon forgotten.  How many of those guys have they had?  Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burriss, Antonio Brown, Dontae Johnson, Claypool...  It's crazy.  I'll tell you this.  I'd never buy a used car from Mike Tomlin.  The guy knows when to get out of a bad vehicle.  I think Pittsburgh shows more than they did last game, but Lamar is too much to deal with for anyone this year.  Baltimore/Pittsburgh OVER 44.

Quick update.  I hit both of my season win total bets (KC over 11.5/New England under 4.5).  I have very quietly turned things around late this season.  Let's see if I can keep it going.  These playoff lines are dialed in tight.   

Current Record:  38-28-1