The Path Forward and NFL Week 14

 

After an exciting week of what I guess was "recovery", I had my follow up appointment with the cardiologist who gave me the stamp of approval to "go back to whatever it was you were doing" which, though it sounds dismissive, is about the best news you could ever hear while in that position.   Honestly, it's like nothing ever happened.  I have a tiny mosquito bite scab from where they accessed my artery and that's it.  I feel like I did before but with the added benefit of not being concerned I am on the precipice of an out of the blue heart attack and death.  I am very anxious to leave medical talk behind, but feel a sense of foreboding that I have walked into a new world where I now get to compare what pills I'm on with others in my demographic.  I don't really want to be a guy that perks up when a pharmaceutical ad comes on TV.  "Hmmm Nividan... now with 40% less anal bleeding... that sounds pretty good...  Ask my doctor if Nividan is right for me you say?  Hmmmm.  I might just do that!", yet this might be my future.  

I feel like I have been on a pause for November as my Australia plan got scuttled, I haven't got any new music to fruition, and I lost weeks of wine exam study.  It's been a total bust.  This week I have been getting back on it, resuming the frivilous things I do that give me purpose.  I don't necessarily want to write a paper on viticultural strategies for addressing heat and drought, but it's good to be able to do so with a clear mind.  If you can imagine how challenging it is to stay focused on that topic in general, try doing it when in the back of your mind is the quiet voice of a sleep demon saying things like "you're going to get your chest ripped open in an operation and your current quality of life is OVER".  Suddenly your interest in what farmers are doing in Etna plummets pretty fast.

I also felt somewhat introspective over the last month and it occurred to me how trivial almost all the various dramas in our lives are.  All my devices are screaming at me "Don't miss the exciting new series streaming on some platform you've never heard of!" or "This band you've vaguely heard of is coming to town to play some kind of retread music that sounds vaguely like Seals And Crofts!"...  You better not miss this shit!  Meanwhile I'm looking at it thinking, "But I've already seen that exact shit in different wrapping paper before and I don't WANT another re-run".  I also sure as shit am not going to another sad ass 1970s band cash grab tour as skeletal 80 year old guys wearing hair pieces juiced up on ozempic  pound out songs about doing cocaine and chasing pussy all night loooo-oooo-oooo-ng.  And no, I don't want to hear about how at your job Kevin From Corporate came in and is changing the comp plan and now Brittany swears she's going to leave.  I don't give a fuck about Brittany, Kevin, the comp plan or that piece of shit corporation.  It's all bullshit.  All of it.  And I'm sick of it.

I am retreating back to what I want to do.  I am going to finish writing this next batch of songs and get whoever the hell is healthy enough on the team to wrangle together a record that I'd like to listen to if someone else put it out.  I'm right back to where I was in 1995 surrounded by uncertainty, bored by my surroundings, and ready to do something about it.  This winter has all the markings of a full on soul crushing 1979 style November to April gray skies icy pavement cold wind Siberian hellscape.  I'm going to get out of here as often as I can, and get this thing back on track ASAP.  This bleak ass winter has the potential to make people crazy in a way they forgot about, burrowed in their warm dens staring into their devices getting their brains broken by social media for a half a year.  I'm getting out of that game.

The only things that matter now are writing four more good songs, and putting together a good week of NFL wagers.  I had a GREAT week over Thanksgiving.  Had I not been chock full o' anesthesia working out of my system I would have given you winners on Green Bay, Dallas, Kent State, Mississippi and the Bears but that's all shit talk as far as you're concerned.  My Sundays have not been great, but I'm going to keep swinging.  Let's talk about maybe the biggest piece of shit football game to come along in the last half decade, Tennessee at Cleveland.  There's no way of getting around how bad Tennessee is not only on the field but organizationally.  The ownership there is like when a car dealership goes from the generation that built it over to The Kids, and because they kids were born into it they think they not only know as much as Dad did but actually wayyyyy more because of the internet or something.  Those geniuses at the Titans ran Mike Vrabel out, put Bill Callahan's kid in as head coach, and covered one game ATS from Labor Day to November.  They are 1-17 in their last 18 games straight up.  It's grim in Nashville.

The Browns are the Browns, doing Browns things from now until the end of time itself in their effort to remain Brownsy.  The Browns are 3-15 in that same 1-17 stretch Tennessee has been on.  I think you could make a logical argument that the organization tanked the game against SF last week when they Keystone Kopped that 4th and 2 on their own 30 down 10-8.  If someone can get Kevin Stefanski out of Corporate Babble for just a minute maybe he can explain why they did that one week after punting on a 4th and 2 on the Raider 29.  As Browns fans argue about Shedeur Sanders v Dillon Gabriel, sort of like arguing about if the AMC Pacer or Gremlin is the superior car, the Browns have somehow decided to revive the Zombie sex deviant Deshaun Watson and get him back into the mix too.  It's all very Browns.  The bottom line is neither the Titans or Browns can score because their offenses lack any of the components one needs to be successful, so the under is in play.  Both teams have scored more than 20 points only twice all year, almost an impossible feat in the NFL.  Tennessee has the dead last offense playing the Browns #2 ranked defense.  The Browns counter with their second to last offense run by a coach that is risk averse while operating on a directive to lose from his owners.  I see this as a game between a team that doesn't want to win versus one that can't win.  I don't see any reason to expect either team to try and put points up, something they can't do anyway, and in conditions that will be cold, snowy and windy.  Tennessee v Raiders= 30 points.  Tennessee v Texans= 29 points and 26 points.  Browns v Raiders 34 points.  Browns v Pittsburgh= 29 points.  The only outlier games are that Jets game where the Browns gave up all those special team points.  I'm going Browns/Tennessee UNDER 34.5 with a hedge of potential rookie QB big mistake Defensive TD Yes +290.  

The AFC North always comes down to Baltimore v Pittsburgh, it's just odd that it's coming together this year with both of them sort of sucking.  I don't like to bet unders because it's just not very fun hoping TDs get called back and yelling at pass interference calls.  However, this game is 1-9-1 to the over in the last 11 meetings.  On top of that you've got two injured QBs, one of which looks every day of his 62 years of age.  Rodgers wasn't very good before he broke his non-throwing hand, and he's sucked since.  5 passing TDs in November total.  Yikes.  The other side of the coin?  Teams that see Lamar twice a year tend to play Lamar very well, and his mobility is compromised.  Lamar has been trending to run just in Big Games the team is facing.  Before Lamar got hurt, he ran for 70 yards against Buffalo, 48 yards against KC.  Now with the hole they dug themselves, every game is a Big Game and Lamar has run for 10, 11 and 27 yards in his last three games.  On top of that he has one (1) passing TD in November.  This feels like one of those rock fight games.  Pittsburgh/Balt UNDER 43.    

Speaking of teams that suck, let's talk Saints.  I think we can all agree the Saints have seen enough from Tyler Slough to conclude that they will not have a competitive team as long as he's the starter.  He's put some numbers up lately, but it's all come in garbage time.  That's a team that wants to lose, can lose, and will lose.  The problem is they play Tampa at a time when Baker is doing his "injured warrior" thing.  When Mayfield is hurt, he loses that portion of athleticism that allows him to compete in the NFL successfully.  Nobody can question that guy's heart, but when he's limited he sorta sucks.  Tampa now finds themselves in that spot where they are good enough to beat the bunnies on the schedule but not good enough to beat high quality opponents.  The good news is the Saints stink and are happy to lose.  The Saints have won on the road twice in the last two years, and I somehow was on the wrong side both times.  That win they had in Carolina is one of the most mystifying games of the year.  I can't see them pulling a win out here but the spread concerns me.  Tampa moneyline.     

Krusty and I call a game that looks too easy "an eel".  If I forced you to bet on this Colts v Jags game and told you the Colts have lost 3 of their last 4, their QB is playing on a broken leg, they haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014, Jacksonville has won 4 of their last 5, and the Jags are getting 1.5 points at home, I am guessing you are betting Jaguars all day long.  What's to think about, right?  This is an eel,  I know it is an eel.  You know it is an eel.  I know even before betting this game I am going to lose because it is A GODDAMN EEL.  Yet, I'm powerless to stop myself.  I need someone to talk me off of the ledge because I am about to bet Jacksonville +1.5.  Please... I am begging you... someone stop this...

Current record:  19-24