Saturday, December 3, 2011

Nurse the Hate: Gambling Jag

I have decided to go on a wild gambling jag this weekend. Now is the time of year Vegas has the odds so dialed in it is impossible to find an edge. Last night's MAC championship game line? Three and a half. Result of game? Favorite wins by three. I have no fucking idea how some guys in a windowless room in a Las Vegas industrial park know that Northern Illinois is three points better than Ohio University, but they do. I still maintain that there is a time machine someone hops into, because there is no visible reason why anyone would know that Northern Illinois is going to win that game by 3. I have a team of guys working a stock portfolio for me with allegedly the smartest minds in the financial world providing insight going over reams of information and raw data. These guys can't pick a winning stock if their life depended on it. Meanwhile, some guy named Roy in that Vegas industrial park knows Northern Illinois is going to win by three. It's time to look for value on the Big Board at the Mirage, because the stock market is a waste of time.

I spent most of late October and November getting my ass kicked in football. I have been very quietly watching games and lines. It has been a time of great soul searching and perhaps even clarity. I have accepted a couple of universal truths about myself in the last couple weeks. One of these is that I don't know what the hell I am talking about in regards to football. However, I do think I am very dialed into what the media and John Q. Public thinks about the various games. This is a very valuable skill to have in the first week of December.

The good news is that it is now about betting against public perception. It is all about picking sides of games where it seems an inconceivable outcome. A perfect example is taking Arizona +4.5 over Dallas. Arizona has not scored a touchdown since October. They are either starting Trent Dilfer at QB, or Kevin Kolb on a broken foot against a Dallas team that looks like the second best in the NFC. Even a casual observer knows Dallas will win this game by two touchdowns. Arizona should get their pricks pounded into the dirt. That's why I am taking Arizona +4.5.

Wisconsin is a battering ram of a team with cornfed boys of mammoth strength anchoring an offensive line that makes others quake in fear. I must have seen seven stories about how monstrous these guys are in the last two weeks. The Badgers were also top of mind last week after they destroyed Penn State, where the media hyenas continue to sift through the rubble of Happy Valley. Meanwhile Michigan State is universally regarded as a team ready to make good on their birthright, which is failing when opportunity is presented. They have to go up to Wisconsin, and play in one of the toughest stadiums in the nation against these big pasty monsters. There is no way they should even be in this game. That's why I am taking Michigan State +9.5.

Tim Tebow is the best story in the NFL right now. He is a nice guy that says and does the right things, yet 50% of the public hates his guts. Everyone says they hate thugs, but more people hate Tebow than hate The Dog Killer Mike Vick. Go figure. So this week Tebow and the rest of the Broncos go to Minnesota to play the Vikings. The Vikings made the national news this week for the first time all season when opportunistic washed up QB Donovan McNabb pretended he was a good guy and asked to leave the team so he could hop on a Playoff contender for a stretch run. Oh, maybe you saw a quick blurb on how their only legitimate player Adrian Peterson has an ankle injury so severe they are considering amputation? I will tell you this, every single Rube on the planet is going to take Denver +1.5. Why wouldn't they? Tebow, despite the fact he seems to have none of the tools necessary to succeed in the NFL, continues to win. Or he just happens to be playing QB for a team that is winning. Either way, John Q Public will be all over the Broncos with the points. That's why I am on Minnesota -1.5.

The Houston Texans held workouts to sign their 4th QB of the season. Jake Delomme and Jeff Garcia were the two players under consideration. No, I am not making that up. Although it would be just as believable if I had written "Vinnie Testeverde and Gary Danielson are under consideration". It's really a shame that the Texans have had to resort to Jake Delomme, a QB so bad that even the Browns said "Ehhh... I don't think so." Delomme isn't starting. Some other guy is. I don't really know who. I don't even care. All I know is everyone keeps talking about how the Texans are done. That's why I am on Houston +2.5 at home.

I am going to really step up on these games. If I win this weekend, it will be a very nice holiday season for those of you on my Christmas list. If I lose? I will probably spend Sunday evening in a continuing downward spiral of hopelessness and alcohol fueled despair. Either way, I think I will be getting a head start on the true spirit of The Holidays. And it will provide a much needed distraction from putting up a Xmas tree.

Oh yeah. Fuck Santa.


At December 3, 2011 at 3:40:00 PM EST , Blogger dbowling said...

I know Roy! Three weeks ago, I was on the third leg of of a $200 3 team parlay and needed the browns over 42.Extra point, I'm headed to Golden Corral! They went for 2 and didn't get it. I pushed. How can that be? However, I loaded up on Eagles under 10.5 wins so, let me hear Robert Earl King sing "Merry Christmas from the family"!

At December 5, 2011 at 1:04:00 PM EST , Blogger Greg Miller said...

Three out of four bitches!


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