Saturday, December 10, 2016

Nurse the Hate: Hate Bad Ideas

There are many things that appear like good ideas but are bad ideas.  For example, putting clothes on dogs, bedazzling your mobile device, eating at Subway, and watching any movie with a superhero in it is a terrible idea.  Life is too short to get tangled up with any of those things.  Why be self destructive?  The world is doing its best to tear you down even while you sleep.  One must remain vigilant.  The key to a productive happy life is to avoid bad craziness and processed foods.  It's simple really.  Another great example of a bad idea is the Vegas line of the Cleveland Browns +5.5 at home against Cincinnati.  I don't know anyone personally, but my sources in Vegas are telling me that about half of their wagered dollars are on the Browns side.  This is a bad idea. Why would these people knowingly do this to themselves?

Getting past the Browns 0-12 record is tough.  It is an even more shocking 2-10 against the spread.  The NFL gambling lines are set to trick people into betting on their ill informed beliefs that one team will "kill" another.  Most NFL games come right down to the end.  Not in Cleveland though.  The Browns last covered a game in October.  They have been reliably pasted each week.  They are actually as bad as their record indicates.  I never bet on horrible teams, this after an expensive lesson on betting on my alma mater +41 vs an SEC school in the 90s. Almost every NFL team is about 50/50 with their record against the spread.  The Browns are 2-10 because the Browns are a historically bad football team.  I do have some concerns that the Browns will be ready to play this week as this game probably represents their last chance at avoiding the indignity of the 0-16 Perfect Season.  That's real motivation and something no one wants hanging on them for the rest of their life.  That could keep it interesting, especially with Bob Griffin 3 back into the mix as a wild card.  This is why I have decided to tease this game with the struggling Houston Texans.  I think Houston is getting too many points against a mediocre Colts team.  The Texans offense is terrible but the defense should allow them to keep it a contest.  It's a sucker bet.  How can we lose?   Cincinnati +1/Houston +12.5.

There is a belief out there that Green Bay is "back".  This is largely due to Aaron Rodgers shooting his mouth off about running the table and then beating a crappy Texans and Eagles teams.  It's also due to Green Bay's national popularity and the sports media looking for any sign of life there.  That team is a mirage created by ESPN.  Meanwhile Seattle has very quietly won and covered five of their last six.  Green Bay can't run the ball.  Seattle can run the ball.  It's in the cold at Green Bay late Sunday afternoon.  This is all lining up nicely for the Seahawks.  This is where the dream ends in Green Bay.  Seattle -3

Season record:  23-9



At December 11, 2016 at 9:37:00 AM EST , Blogger tirednlazy said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At December 11, 2016 at 9:50:00 AM EST , Blogger Mike Scott said...

Seattle? In Lambeau? In December? Doesn't sound like it's lining up too nicely.

At December 11, 2016 at 10:33:00 AM EST , Blogger Greg Miller said...

Lambeau in December was a big deal when the Packers were good. The Pack is 3-2 straight up at home in Dec in their last 5. That "Packers at Lambeau" is a myth from the Favre era. Seattle is better team than Green Bay, even to the untrained eye. I think The Public will bet The Myth and not the better team.

At December 11, 2016 at 2:01:00 PM EST , Blogger Mike Scott said...

Well them are some mighty fine stats you got there. They would be really good if they were correct. Green Bay has won their last four home games in December with the last loss coming against the Steelers in 2013. They are 5-1 straight up since 2013. I agree completely with your other points, it's just not an obvious lock in my book. Good luck to you!

At December 12, 2016 at 12:45:00 AM EST , Blogger Greg Miller said...

I should have listened to you. Frankly it was irresponsible of me not to just bet against the Browns and calling it a day.


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