Nurse the Hate: Super Bowl Sunday and Smoke Time!

 

Things have gotten odd over here.  I just bought a three volume set of "The Smoke", a British psych band from 1967 that fled to Germany because they were managed by The Kray Brothers and couldn't get reliably booked as the Krays were involved in crime more than career management.  They did manage a hit in Germany with "My Friend Jack", a tune about their friend that took lots of LSD from sugar lumps.  Did I need three hours of The Smoke?  Of course I did.  Of course, I didn't realize that they spent a full year trying to sound like T Rex at the end of their career, but whattya gonna do?  That came in the same shipment as the double LP "Chocolate Watchband Melts Your Brain: The Complete Recordings".  It sounds like a college dorm room in 1967 in my house.  Things are really fucking groovy all day.  It's a time of great exploration.  I am on a personal journey of self discovery.  I am Icarus flying towards the sun.  I only hope I don't end up like all the musicians from 1967-1969 that spent the early 1970s making complete shit.  Is complete immersion in the late 60s counter culture going to lead to me wanting to become a singer songwriter like Randy Newman or James Taylor, or do I become an acid casualty like Sky Saxon or Arthur Lee?  I'm not sure, but my favorite song right now is "My Time" by The Golden Dawn, a baby brother band of the 13th Floor Elevators, so that's not encouraging.

It is Super Bowl Sunday, so at least there is gambling to keep me loosely tethered to the Earth.  I can't seem to talk myself into betting either team.  Kansas City is 17-1 and appears to have the rare ability to "flip the switch" at will.  They have an unstoppable offense in an age of the NFL where defenses have had their teeth ripped out.  They only punted once in the playoffs.  They are the defending champs with the single best player in the league, Patrick Mahomes.  Andy Reid is the best offensive coach in football, and he has had two weeks to find Tampa's weaknesses.  Tampa is lucky to be here at all as they benefitted from huge turnover differentials that has hidden their inability to drive the ball down the entire field.  The Chiefs can cover three points on Tampa without working up a sweat.  It's obvious that Kansas City is the pick.

Let's go the other way with the argument.  Kansas City is overrated.  They went 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten games.  They should have lost to Cleveland, and beat a Buffalo team that wasn't ready for the moment.  The Chiefs have a poor running game and are facing a Tampa team that is difficult to run on anyway.  This will lead to Kansas City having to throw the entire game to move the ball.  The problem is they have both of their tackles out for this game with injuries and Mahomes has an injured toe/less mobility.  Reid will be forced to use a second tight end and running backs to chip on the edge rushers of Tampa thereby limiting the number of available receivers.  Tampa can double either Hill or Kelce and take one of them out of the game, leaving KC dependent on one matchup to win.  While plenty of attention was paid to Kansas City beating Tampa earlier this year by shooting out to an early lead, which is more representative in that game?  Was it the early scoring by KC, or Tampa's dominance after making adjustments?  Tampa had the best offense in the NFL after the midpoint when Brady became comfortable with his teammates plus they added Antonio Brown in slot as the best #3 receiver in football.  This is a big game and Tampa has the best big game player of all time in Tom Brady.  Tampa not only covers this game, but they win outright.      

Either argument sounds feasible.  That's why I am focusing on weird prop bets.  At this point prop bets are 65% of the action on Super Bowl Sunday, the biggest gambling day of the year.  There is as much money wagered on the Super Bowl as during the entire NFL season.  For the sports books, it's like having a second NFL season but in four hours.  As such, they offer every conceivable prop bet.  The key is to find odd ones that slid through that offer some value.  With so many possible wagers, the books can't possibly put out good numbers on all the offerings.  Tampa Gets Ball First.  The NFL has decided that the thing to do is if you win the toss is to defer.  That puts us at 50/50 by taking Tampa as the Chiefs will want the ball in the second half and give it to Tampa.  However, in the last weeks of the season, Tampa bucked the trend and started to take the ball first.  On top of that, I think Tampa will want to try and play from being ahead.  I think they will take the ball, try to score and see if they can get a lead.  Chiefs Have Ball Last.  The favorite will theoretically close out the game by kneeling.  That gives an edge to KC.  I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Tampa is desperately throwing a Hail Mary, but I can come up with one where Mahomes is desperately going downfield late.  Chiefs receiver DeMarcus Robinson was cleared off the covid list and is going to play.  Sammy Watkins is questionable but was a full participant in Friday's practice.  This once again puts Byron Pringle as the odd man out in the receiver rotation.  He didn't have a catch from Nov 22 to January 3rd when Watkins was out.  If KC needs extra help on the O-line, the last thing they are doing is trying to get the ball to Bryon Pringle instead of Hill/Kelce.  Byron Pringle Under 1.5 receptions.     

Season record:  28-25-1