Nurse the Hate: 2022 NFL Win Totals

 

There is agreement in America right now about very few things.  It is said there are Two Americas.  People live in two completely different realities despite receiving the same basic information.  Events are perceived differently, despite people viewing the same things happening in real time.  I was at an insurance agency the other day in a suburban strip plaza.  The two guys that owned the business were walking around the joint with .45 pistols in holsters like they were cowboys.  I have no idea why they thought a gunfight was going to break out in their strip plaza or why they would be able to save the day.  The one guy was about 125 pounds overweight and his is early 60s.  I don't think he could catch a softly tossed ball much less have the hand/eye to engage in a firefight with a pistol.  When we started talking I told them about how to make an advertising schedule work.  I told them "if you repeat anything enough times, it becomes the truth.".  One of the two guys said "You hit it on the head right there.  That's what's wrong with this country.".  

Now, I think he and I agreed that some folks out there believe in some wild falsehoods and complete lies.  I think where we might diverge is on exactly what "The Truth" is on some things.  It's hard to explain it.  Is it strictly social media?  Is it following questionable narratives on whatever media you consume?  Is half the country a victim of misinformation plots?  I'm really not sure.  However, we all need to admit that there are two different worlds right now.  You're on one side or the other.  You either A) think the New York Jets "won" the draft and have become contenders or B) think like I do that the Jets will always be the Jets and will fail.

I recently heard a very simple, yet compelling way to bet NFL win totals.  If a team has a good quarterback and a good coach, bet the over.  A bad quarterback and bad coach, bet the under.  The Jets really don't have things going their way.  Last year's #2 pick in the draft, Zach Wilson spent the summer (allegedly) having sex with his Mom's friends and then tearing his knee when he was unable to fall down correctly.  It probably won't matter as he totally sucks.  Now the Jets will run completely out of gas Joe Flacco out there for a bit until they inevitably run Wilson back out to play too early from the torn miniscus.   It's a nightmare scenario of having to play a shitty top draft pick you missed on while he's hurt.  The Jets also lost their left tackle for the season in training camp, so they reshuffled their o-line.  The Jets signed a 37 year old lineman to play left tackle and sent Fant back to play right tackle.  Yeah...  I'm sure everything will be fine.  Jets Under 6. 

I got on the Browns UNDER 9.5 wins when some fools believed that Watson was going to escape punishment from the league and trot out to play football n Week 1.  Getting beyond the fact Watson is a sex predator and probably a sociopath, he is good at football.  His replacement, Jacoby Brissett, is not.  Brissett is a good QB to have to play a couple games to keep the team on the rails.  He has not shown the ability to win as a consistent starter.  Talk radio hosts in Cleveland are talking about the team going 7-4 or 6-5 until Watson comes back for Week 12.  I see them at 3-8 or 4-7.  It's hard to lose money betting on the ultimate failure of the Browns and Jets.  Browns UNDER 9.5.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.  Good quarterback and good coach.  The last four years the Chiefs have won 12, 14, 12 and 12.  The NFL has made the move away from parity into having a few teams that are juggernauts who win 12+ games each season, and some that are absolutely awful.  The consistent thing on these winning organizations is the good coach/good QB combo.  Kansas City has that.  You know who else has that?  The Rams.  They are sitting at 10.5 wins with this odd "Super Bowl Hangover" myth narrative out there.  22 of the last 26 Super Bowl teams posted double digit win totals the following year after the Super Bowl.  Are the Stafford/McVay led Rams suddenly going to go 10-7 despite the other teams in their division all having serious questions at QB?  Don't be afraid of the big win total numbers.  There are 17 games now.  Good teams find a way to win.  Chiefs OVER 10.5 and Rams OVER 10.5.