The Ghosts Of Autumn and NFL Week 4

Something that was rather disappointing was to travel in the tail end of summer and then when I got back it was Fall.  It was like I jumped into a goddamn time machine.  It was sailing and grilling when I left.  I come back and it's leaves and those black/gray tinted high morning clouds.  Everything smells like going to high school and not understanding geometry.  I was so bad at geometry that I think the stress of getting called to the board and ridiculed by my teacher impacted my health.  I was sick that entire Fall.  I might enroll in a college geometry class just so I can finally understand how to calculate the square area of a rhombus despite never coming in contact with a rhombus as an adult (as I had predicted as a 16 year old).  My grasp of geometry was about the same as my grasp of Mandarin Chinese is today.  Slim.  I don't want to let the ghosts of autumn haunt me too heavily though.  I have my own dragons to slay...  the Master of Wine/writing one more decent Whiskey Daredevils song for our new LP/and turning around this NFL gambling.

Last Sunday I was fairly certain going into it that I was doomed.  It generally takes a month to get a handle on which teams are any good.  Up until then, it's all preseason hype and snowballing rhetoric combined with short term overreaction.  Team A lost last week, therefore Team A will never win again.  Pass it on.  I am aware of this and yet I also succumb to it.  I do it every year.  It's a tradition for me like unwrapping Xmas presents or putting up plastic skeletons in your front yard might be for you.  Side note, anyone that invests great sums of money into Halloween decorations that doesn't have kids under the age of twelve I harbor suspicions on.  Anyway, getting my ass kicked early is the way I spend great sums of money on the Fall like your stupid plastic skeletons you got at Home Depot.  If we are being honest, you likely get much more joy with your plastic skeletons than I do losing a game in which I took a position on the Tampa Bucs, so feel free to smugly smile at me as I walk past your Halloween Grotto Of Doom with my losing ticket.  You fuckers.  

That gets us into Week 4 and the chance to follow the axiom of ABG...Always Be Gambling.  Let's not let a little kick in the teeth ruin our autumn, shall we?  A smorgasbord of opportunity awaits the clever boy.  Let's first tackle the most intriguing game on the slate, the Raiders hosting KC.  I think there is a groundswell of optimism around the Raiders because leaguewide people want the Raiders to be good.  What's not to like about a bunch of Hispanic guys in pirate and Skeletor costumes drunk as shit on Modelo waving around plastic axes in the end zone?  The League is better when the Raiders get to play the part of dastardly villain.  There is a little glimmer that the Raiders at 3-0 might be a legitimate football team this year.  I think that is true as long as the baseline is set at "7 wins and competitive almost every week" as opposed to "Maybe they will win the West".  We are early enough that I don't feel comfortable leaping on the idea that the Dynasty Chiefs are back, but I do think they will score some points today over by the Mandelay Bay which will be flooding fat guys in red KC jerseys into Allegiant.  Kansas City Over 26.5 points.    

I am sticking with two concepts in which I entered the season.  1.  The Jacksonville Jaguars are good.  2.  The Cincinnati Bengals aren't.  Here's what we know about both teams.  The Bengals slipped past a shitty Bucs team in a game where Baker Mayfield fumbled four (4) times, somehow beat the Texans while only getting 12 first downs, and lost to what appears to be a shitty Steelers team.  That to me appears to be a team hovering in The Great Pack of teams which are all going to be around 7-8 wins.  Meanwhile the Jags kicked the shit out of the Browns, lost to Denver on the road by one score, and then kicked the shit out of the Patriots.  The Jags are good.  It doesn't seem like they are good because they are in Jacksonville and the only reason one thinks of Jacksonville is if you are having a conversation about meth.  Jacksonville is the better team and they are getting points.  Gimme the Jags.  Jacksonville +2.5  

Speaking of teams no one thinks about, how about the Carolina Panthers?  That team is the Applebee's of the NFL.  It is a team with a corporate committee approach to having an identity.  There is no organic excitement about the team, and even when they had that brief glory during the Cam Newton Era, there were no Panthers fans, only ticket holders that secured their seats from corporate benefactors.  "Going to the game Brad?"  Sure am.  Got some tickets from my guy at Gliotech.  We'll probably leave at halftime.  Cue to pre recorded announcer stadium drop:  Up on your feet Panther fans!  Roar!  

The Panthers have both offensive tackles and their best o-lineman (guard Damien Lewis) all confirmed as out of this game.  Both starting cornerbacks are hurt and out of the game.  That does not seem to be a recipe for success.  If these injuries had been on the Cowboys, it's all ESPN would have talked about all week.  Since it happened to Carolina, nobody knows or gives a shit.  I don't think the Lions are all that, but they really caught a sorta shitty Panthers team at a great time.  I'm hoping to see a 3, but I will fire on Detroit -3.5 if I have to.

I think the Miami Dolphins organization has a plan.  I like what they are doing long term by getting rid of all the players they had that were big money and not doing shit to help them win.  The downside of this is that as of right now they are fucking terrible.  They are 0-3 and have scored three touchdowns in 3 games.  All losses have been double digits, so it's surprising that they haven't scored more garbage time points.  They go to Minnesota where the Vikings are only giving up 13.7 points to opponents.  Toss in that Miami just lost Achane to a blown out knee, their best offensive player, and it's not a recipe for great success.  I was going to get on the Vikings, but it's hard to trust that offense right now to cover a double digit spread.  I am going to get on this by betting on Miami's failure to score and take Miami Under 14.5 points.  If you are way too into the NFL like I am, you'll note that Minnesota's defensive coordinator is well known red ass Brian Flores.  He comes after teams hard in general.  Making this game especially noteworthy is his still pending contentious lawsuit against the Miami Dolphins for wrongful termination.  The Vikings will stay in full blitz and Cover 0 packages until next Tuesday.  He's got to be shooting for a shutout here.  Former Miami Dolphins defensive back Jason McCourty said, "I was in the building when Miami fired [Flores]… he wants to whoop their you know what."  Terrible offense meets motivated defense.  Yeah, I'll take that under.

There is a season total out there that came to my attention.  The NY Giants still have a win total prop out there for Under 7.5 season wins available on many platforms.  To be clear, you are telling me that the Giants are going to win 8 games when they are underdogs today at home against the Cardinals?  If you are an underdog at home to what is considered to be a Bottom 3 team, what games are you going to be favored in?  How does a team that will be an underdog in all of their remaining games pull six upsets?  By trading for JJ McCarthy?  NY Giants UNDER 7.5 wins.

Season Record:  3-7