Mock Exams and Super Bowl Week

 

I attended the Master of Wine seminar this week in Santa Rosa CA, a more budget minded stay than glamorous nearby Napa Valley on the other side of the mountains.  I prefer Sonoma to Napa these days as Napa is now in a doomsday spiral of “premiumization” where each winery and restaurant is trying to outdo each other on who can be the most focused on conspicuous spending.  While there are plenty of great wines and places to eat, after all, an unlimited budget can really help deliver results, it’s all a bit of overkill.  Sonoma, while hardly a cheap place to hang out, is very conscious of not becoming Napa.  Of course this means they sell $75 wines instead of $175 wines, so it’s sort of splitting hairs at that point.  Still, the people are nice and the weather is good, so it’s a good stay in February.

I did four consecutive mock exams on Tuesday through Friday.  What that means is I have 12 wines poured in front of me and I must identify them blind and write full page notes on why I came to conclusion I did.  That went first thing in the morning from 800a to 10:15a.  It sounds sort of easy until you have to fill up a 16-page test paper with writing on conclusions you arrived at moving very swiftly with the pressure of not looking like an asshole in front of your peers, some of the best blind wine tasters in the world.  The time is about two minutes per wine for identification, which is faster than it sounds, and then the writing is 9 minutes per wine.  

What has become the most challenging part for me now is the writing, which you wouldn’t think would be that big of an issue for a guy the writes as much as I do.  I find it difficult sometimes to write not only the basic facts of what they are looking for, but the way they want it written.  Like If the question was “what kind of bird is this?” and they showed you a photo of Daffy Duck, you’d immediately know it’s a duck because, well… you know what a duck looks like.  However, can you prove that Daffy is a duck in a series of logical statements?  It has to be written something like this:  “Evidence of feathers points to being a bird.  Lack of scales or fur confirms the creature is a bird.  Evidence of a billed mouth and ability to swim points to waterfowl.  Webbed feet confirms water based bird.  Considered duck and goose as identity.  Dark feathers and ringed patterned neck consistent with duck.  Orange tinted bill confirms duck as goose would have white feather and black elongated type bill.  Considered Looney Toons and Mallard type duck.  Black feathers and white patterned neck, 12 pound body weight confirms Looney Toons species.”  So, I did that for four days with a bunch of weird ass wines and then tried to defend my point in group settings for saying a late harvest Gruner Veltliner from Austria was a reasonable miss on something I painstakingly wrote an answer for that I thought was a warm vintage Vendage Tardives Riesling from Alsace.  It’s all sort of ridiculous as nobody but the people in this room really care, but that’s how I spent the week.

The great news was that I was able to avoid all the banal Super Bowl hype.  The worst part of that is the NFL threatening to sue anyone that even says “Super Bowl” out loud which is perhaps the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard.  Maybe FIFA will come and knock down your door with a bunch of ICE goons if you say “World Cup” out loud but I don’t think they’ll do that.  They have the wherewithal to understand that all publicity is good publicity, and if a chicken wing bar wants to advertise a “World Cup Finals Party” it’s good for the brand.  The NFL is a bunch of fuckers though.  They don’t want most of the money on the table.  They want ALL of the money on the table.  

I was talking with Krusty about this year’s game and it seems odd that all the chatter from the sports gambling community is centered around props.  I haven’t heard anyone floating out speculation on who is going to win the game, with an even more muted level of conversation than when some of those Cowboys and Niners monster teams were clearly going to fucking destroy their second rate foes.  Gen Z dudes like betting props and parlays, so that’s where all the public money and interest is focused.  I don’t really understand that thinking as to me, the Seahawks are clearly the better of the two teams and at the Draft Kings opening line of -3.5 seem like a gift.  Nobody seems to give a shit though.  

The Seahawks metrics are really good.  They are top 8 for almost anything you want to rank a good football team on.  They won the #1 seed and beat the Rams twice (a team I still think is the better team BTW), and had to tangle with the 49ers twice.  The only real question is our national agreement on refusing to believe that Sam Darnold is not going to flame out in the bright lights despite putting up two 13+ win seasons in a row on two different teams as a Top 3 overall draft pick pedigree QB.  I think he just had to scrub the Jets off him and that takes time, but who knows what happened there?  All I know is that he’s been solid, but the real thing that sells me on Seattle is how good their defense has been.  If you have a tough defensive team in these big games, that’s usually who has the edge.

The other key to this game to me is the Patriots schedule.  Look, I know you can only beat who is on your schedule, but what are this team’s best wins?  Beating Buffalo on the road I guess?  The Playoffs were a dream scenario for them.  You had Stroud putting up maybe the single worst playoff game performance I have seen since Brian Hoyer flamed out as a Texan and threw like 5 INTS.  Stroud singlehandedly lost that game for Houston.  Brutal.  Then they get to play a Broncos team that had to run out a backup that hadn’t played a game in over two years.  That’s not exactly the same run as beating the Niners and Rams, is it?  At a certain point you’d want to look at the Patriots and think, “OK, these guys are a Top 5 NFL team”, and I just don’t think that’s possible with the data set we have in front of us.  I’m on the better team who played the much tougher schedule with who I think also has the better Xs and Os coach.  Seattle -3.5

               

It's Just Fine, NFL Championship Weekend

 

There is a friend of mine that owns a small business which imports products from Europe.  He doesn’t like to talk about politics because either he dislikes the potential conflict it brings or feels under-informed to  confidently participate in the conversation.  He voted for Trump last year, something that was clearly not in his best interests, mainly because of the views of his support network of people from his hometown.  When confronted about his choice he generally wavered between the position of “all candidates are the same anyway” and “I don’t like Kamela’s laugh” (which probably means “I don’t like women in power and/or her skin pigment” but that’s saying the quiet part out loud).  After the election when things appeared to be veering into an extreme that was somehow unexpected, his business suffered from tariffs.  Like many people, he pivoted to the mindset of “I don’t really pay attention to politics” as if avoiding bad news will somehow make you immune to the impact of it.  This seems to be a common tactic employed by people now to lean into disengagement as if that will allow not only the freedom to avoid reality but to also downplay consequence of their own inaction.  And so as anyone who has read a history book predicted, we find ourselves today with a prototype Fascist leader in full blown cognitive decline ready to burn it all down around him.  Meanwhile, the herd watch Tik Tok videos assuming everything will somehow work out OK.  Check out this new dance.  

There is a false assumption afoot that the systems we created as a society will prevent “really bad things” from happening to us.  As there has never been tangible negative consequences felt by most people from national policy actions, therefore the expectation is that it’s all a game.  Real misery and loss is something that can be swiped away on your device.  On to the next funny dog video or fashion tip.  It’s all for you to consume.  The disconnect is that people don’t understand that the systems you have taken for granted to make things work out just fine for you aren’t working any longer.  They have been dismantled by greed heads, monsters and zealots.  There is a Doom Cult and you’re in it whether you remember joining or not.  Everything you have taken for granted is about to be given away by an 80 year old reality tv star/failed casino operator/convicted sex criminal.  Sit back and take in the sights.  If you make it to the other side you’re going to want to remember the details in your “way it used to be” stories you’ll tell to a disbelieving audience of young people.

After yet another normal person got murdered in the street by masked Federal government goons, the gaslighting from The State has edged into "brazen" from the already unbelievable position of "really fucking absurd".  This week you will see people that you know begin to parrot the Right Wing alternate reality world talking points of "Who brings a gun to an event like this anyway, he was going to murder law enforcement!" (as if two minutes ago that same media source wasn't shrieking about how everyone everywhere should be allowed to strap on guns, second amendment rights, blah blah blah).  Even worse, you'll see some stupid "breakdown of the tape" like this is a disputed NFL catch where the general thinking is if you talk confidently enough you will be able to talk away the obvious evidence of that guy getting beaten/shot/murdered from multiple angles and somehow say it was his fault.  The worst people of all though will be the ones that say "I heard something about that, but I'm not really a News Person" as a hedge to see if they can just ride this out with micro influencer reels and Volcano Quesaritos.  It's a grim time, but it's what America does.  

A quick reminder that when the Kent State shootings happened, a Gallup poll taken the day after the shootings reportedly showed that 58 percent of respondents blamed the students, 11 percent blamed the National Guard, and 31 percent expressed no opinion.  Although it's hard to imagine that a majority of people thought it was OK that American military troops fired rifles on a group of college students, to me the most amazing stat is about a third were "Eh, I don't really have an opinion on that".  Of course, this time there are multiple video angles, so the mental gymnastics needed to blame the dead guy are going to be more difficult to summon up.  I will say this. From my years in marketing I can tell you, people see what they want to see.  That brings me to perhaps the biggest and most important point I have to make today.  Why do people think the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham is no big deal today?

That's right!  We aren't going to let a little state sponsored murder impact our Championship Sunday!  I've been reading and listening to a lot from "The Sharps" about the Broncos v New England game.  I should note that "Sharps" basically means "syndicated sports talk show host, guy with a podcast, or ex-athlete that needs to fill a segment".  The narrative that has coalesced is this:  Jarrett Stidham (a.k.a. "Stiddy") was a top priority signing for Denver when Sean Peyton arrived.  Peyton LOVES the guy.  Stiddy was drafted by Belichick, coveted by Gruden and signed to a high paid (for a backup) deal with Denver because he is so capable.  He's really good.  The fact that the line moved from Denver being favored by 1.5 to them being a 4 point underdog is crazy.  Bo Nix isn't worth 5.5 points!  That's just too many points.  You HAVE TO take Denver.  I don't know if the Broncos will win, but 5 points is just too many.   

Allow me to offer a counter narrative.  Jarrett Stidham has not played a down of professional football since 2023.  He has started four games in the NFL and went 1-3.  If Stidham is so fucking good, why did the Patriots, after Brady left, trade him to the Raiders for a 6th round pick in 2022?  The Patriots signed broken down Cam Newton instead of playing Stidham.  Why then didn't the Raiders hold onto him in 2023 when they soured so badly on Derek Carr they released him outright?  Then the Broncos, in the midst of horrible QB play from Russell Wilson, didn't put Stidham in until two weeks before the end of the season when the Broncos released Wilson strictly for financial reasons.  Stidham has played only because teams have had no other option, just like the Broncos today.  Now, let's also take into account that you're starting a guy that hasn't played a down of football in over two years, only started 4 games in his career, and then said "Good news.  You're the starting QB in the AFC Championship game.  Think about that all week and don't get tight."  Stidham's biggest start up until now was either the Peach Bowl against UCF in 2017 (lost 34-27 ) or Nov 24, 2018 when he led Auburn against Alabama (Lost 52-21).  

People will bitch about the Patriots weak schedule, but you can only play who is on your schedule.  The Patriots went 14-3, and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games.  Denver is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.  The Broncos escaped with close victories over the Raiders, Chiefs, and Washington.  Hell, Denver should have lost to Buffalo last week.  Why are the Broncos going to just show up with Stiddy and take care of business?  We spend all year talking about quarterback, quarterback, quarterback and now that just doesn't matter?  If these teams are both full strength, I'm still probably leaning New England here anyway.  Drake Maye is a huge advantage in this game and yet everyone is talking Stidham.  New England is top 8 in whatever team metrics you want, and Denver had a shitty offense with Nix much less with what I'm supposed to believe is the second coming of Johnny Unitas in Jarrett Stidham.  New England -4 is the side here.     

The game I feel most strongly about is the Seattle v Rams game.  Seattle is easily the best team left in this tournament.  If this game was about a month ago, I would probably have gone Rams.  They just don't look like the same team to me.  I think the Rams are more beat up and injured than is being reported, especially Stafford.  He just doesn't look like the same guy.  Now I know they will shoot him up with a bunch of goo-goo juice to get out there today, but that Seattle defense is looking top flight.  On all the metrics the Seahawks are having one of the best overall seasons of any team in the last three decades.  Now toss in that the Rams are playing their sixth road game in seven weeks, and you have a tremendous rest advantage for Seattle.  Sure, we all have Sam Darnold questions swirling around our heads, but Darnold doesn't have to win this game.  He just has to not lose it.  I really like Seattle -2.5      

Current record:  39-32

Avoiding Ron and NFL Divisional Round

 

For the second consecutive flight I have been placed next to a passenger which cannot sit still, every four seconds a herky jerky move like he is unable to be comfortable in silence or a stationary position.  When I was in elementary school these children were called “hyperactive” and dosed up with some kind of downer to make them less disruptive in class.  As an adult, people can mask this behavior if they somehow fail upwards as being “on-the-go” or perhaps have their casually laughing wife say something like “Oh, you know Ron… He just can’t sit still.” as if that were some sort of virtue.  In the suburbs guys like this can blend in, intently running their leaf blowers and power washers, whatever they have to do to not sit quietly in their own minds.

I have a theory that the rise of smart phones has created an epidemic of these people, unable to go more than a few moments without some kind of stimulus for their brains.  Maybe this hyperactive trait had always been there and now it’s been exacerbated by a steady regimen of dopamine hits from quick videos of guys getting hit in the nuts and girls in yoga shorts stretching.  It could also be the rise of the coffee chain culture where maybe this dude is just speeding his dick off from a quad shot Venti Pike delivered via suppository for faster intake.  “Ron?  Ron?  Quad Pike Venti?  Ron?  Yes, can you step over here onto the plastic tarp?  Your drink order is ready.”

It could also be from dwelling in a world of apps and online portals that have just fried people’s brains out.  I spent 90 minutes yesterday trying to check into a flight in which Frontier Airlines had constructed the absolute perfect electronic maze.  Log onto the app with your Frontier Miles number.  Password not recognized.  Forget your password?  Click the button to have a link to set a new password.  No email arrives.  Go to the website.  Chat with our AI assistant.  What’s the problem?  I’m happy to help.  Explain the problem.  Have you tried to log onto our app?  Connect to representative.  Hello, I am happy to help.  What’s the problem?  Explain the problem.  Have you tried the app?  That’s the problem.  So sorry.  I have re-set your password in the app.  Log onto the app.  Unexplained error.  Unable to log in.  Please try later.  Log on with your Frontier miles number.  Unexplained error.  And back around.  Have you tried our app?

I am hoping to dive in Mexico, something I haven’t been able to do for a number of years now as I have been traveling almost exclusively to wine producing regions.  Of course, there is some sort of risk with my exciting new heart status, but there are worse places to die than in a light blue ocean surrounded by colorful fish.  My doctor told me a story of a guy that had a heart attack at depth.  He had to do a safety stop waiting for his blood to decompress as he absorbed the attack.  He then flopped back onto the boat and chugged back to the port.  He went to the airport to get back to the Clinic to receive care and somehow lived after an intense surgery.  Glass half full, he somehow lived after all that.  Glass half empty, maybe he should have just removed his regulator and slowly sunk to the bottom.  I am hoping to have a couple low to medium depth dives in nice reef locations where I can weightlessly float around, not feeling the need to move every seven seconds like Ron over there to my right.  

My fear is that Ron will wind up being at my hotel.  I will then fixate on Ron, watching him get up to go to the breakfast buffet, sit down, get up again, swiftly walking across the room in his Sketchers and backwards baseball hat, checking his Apple Watch, grabbing a plate for a muffin he doesn’t need or want.  I overspent on the hotel as usually this type of guy is very concerned about securing accommodations that qualify as “a great deal”.  This will then enable him the opportunity to engage unlucky guests at the swimup bar with unwanted conversations like “Great weather, huh?  Way better than it is back at home.  We’re from Cleveland.  Yeah, had some snow right when we left.  We usually don’t come down here this time of year, but I got A GREAT DEAL on the Apple Vacations website.”  I have found that the extra $300-$500 a week tax to price yourself into a higher end place in Mexico is usually worth the payoff to leave Ron at the airport.  Even though I know I will not allow myself into the proximity of Ron to potentially get ensnared in his conversational web, a $100 a day payment on top of the normal cost will be well worth the insurance cost of me not staring at that guy monitoring his behavior, which is of course MY poison I bring to this party.  You’ve got to understand what you’re made of and deal with the reality of the situation.

As expected, Ron was shuttled off to a discount hotel chain at the Mexican Airport which is like arriving in Saigon in 1969.  “Hey GI?  You need taxi?”  A small mini van whisked off to check into the 5 Apple (whatever that means) hotel location where I had the worst glass of sparkling wine I’ve had since a sekt at the Hamburg Art Museum café in the mid 2010s.  I fell into a deep sleep where I had a dream that I had been unconscious and woke up to find myself baked into a large vase with thick clay walls.  The only part of me exposed was my head, with my neck being contained by the top rim of the vase like an amphora collar.  My body was constricted inside the vase in a half squatting position where it was impossible to stand or sit due to the constriction of the chalky interior of the vessel.  My thighs burned but if I relaxed them, the weight of my body would cause great pain on my jaw being jammed against the rim of the opening.  I was in a large room with a tile floor totally alone.  It was silent and with a growing darkness like late dusk.  Across the room I saw a stairway heading down.  If I could figure a way to knock the vase over, maybe I could roll over to fall down the stairs where hopefully the impact would break the vase and free me from the prison.  I rocked my body back and forth and felt the vase gradually topple over and begin to roll.  The floor and the ceiling alternated as I helplessly rolled towards the staircase.  Suddenly I stopped short of the stairs, the vase having rolled into a corner of the room where my face looked down at the tile, trapped into looking at the floor in an uncomfortable position forever.  Then I woke up with the vivid memory.  

I don’t know what you know about dream interpretation, but here’s what I took out of it.  I better get on the Denver Broncos.  Does the vase represent the pass rush of the Broncos D line?  I dunno.  Maybe.  I am not bought in on this Bills team.  Maybe I’m pissed that they beat the Jags last week in what was a great game that I wish I could pin on my personal nemesis Trevor Lawrence, but I can’t.  I keep thinking about that Eagles game where Philly bullied the Bills line and made Josh Allen ineffective (though admittedly he almost pulled it out).  This divisional round is usually where good defense (and a rested one with Denver) beats a good offense.  I am on Denver -1 at home.

I just can’t see how the 49ers can keep losing star players and keep winning.  Kittle is done with an Achilles, approximately the 47th such Achilles tendon injury of this NFL season.  When I was a kid watching football, NOBODY got an Achilles injury.  Now it’s a couple guys a week.  I have no idea why this is, but it takes a good two years to come back from it, which means Kittle is probably done as a premier NFL player.  When you look at this game, the decision is this:  Do you think Sam Darnold will fuck this game up for Seattle?  Darnold has led his team to two (2) consecutive 13 win seasons, and yet it’s hard to shake the “I’m seeing ghosts” NY Jets Sam Darnold.  Even that kid in Oregon was like “Fuck that, I’m staying in school.  I don’t want to be a Jet.”.  I think the Seahawks run, run, run and keep it away from Darnold to win it on his own.  Again, well rested team.  I’m thinking about teasing this game with that 7 point spread making it Seattle -1.

That means I need a dance partner.  I can logically go Chicago +10 or Houston +9.5 as NE +2.5 makes no sense.  I think the Rams are the best team in the NFL.  However, I just saw Stafford sprain his index finger on this throwing hand last week, and now he is going to have to pass the ball in single digit temps in Chicago.  I’m seeing a whole bunch of “Matt Stafford hasn’t won a game in under 40 degrees since 1912” shit which concerns me.  He also was having epidurals for his back in late August.  That dude can tough out whatever happens, but this fucking Bears team is some kind of Team Of Destiny.  I just need them to keep it close on a shitty night in Chicago.  Seattle -1/Chicago +10

Current Record:  36-32

Wild Card Weekend In The Home Of The Free

 

I have had to take a break from social media because it's really starting to stress me out how stupid almost everyone is in the country.  Like most of you, I created a Facebook account whenever the hell that rose to prominence so my "friend" group is sort of a relic from that time where I have a disproportionate number of people in my feed that I had casual business relationships with in the early 2000s.  I have two basic groups on Facebook, my musician friends and my old work world.  My musician friends for the most part are reliably socially liberal, not that concerned about how people spend their time as long as it doesn't negatively impact others.  Then I have this other 15-20% of people that have become increasingly radicalized into Far Right (read as "fascist") talking points.  I'll see these accounts where the profile picture is some smiling suburban Dad with three kids and the text will be the most hate filled bile you'd ever imagine.  Meanwhile everyone at the office is saying "Bob is such a nice guy."  

Well, Bob might be agreeable at the water cooler but he's also loudly suggesting that half of the country needs to be publicly hung from meat hooks because they have a measure of tolerance for (fill in your topic) trans people/people from different cultures/different religions/rule of law, whatever.  It's hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that people will proclaim on a public platform "That Minneapolis Mom got what she had coming because she didn't comply with the law" as if we all didn't see the same video of some commando cosplay hillbilly shoot some woman in the face as she drove away from him.  I think we are all on the same page that we need to have police in our communities.  I don't think we have the same level of buy-in that if someone doesn't comply from orders from whatever this paramilitary ICE goon squad is then that person gets immediately executed.  Is this even a real discussion?   

Something people forget is that when the Kent State students got shot in 1970 by the National Guard, the majority of Ohioans thought it was the students fault.  Students protested an illegal bombing by the government in Cambodia, and later that day essentially untrained military personnel shot them.  You know, sorta like those ICE hillbillies.  It seemed ludicrous as an incoming student at Kent that anyone could have thought the students "deserved" to get shot, but sure as shit that's what some people thought at the time.  I watched all these man on the street interviews in black and white film when I did my Intro seminar at the university.  History has certainly changed that point of view with even the most ardent "law and order" honks willing to begrudgingly take a "mistakes were made" position on shooting kids.  This is just like it will when this time period is looked back upon on the chapter of an American History book called "The Beginning Of The End" when they talk about shooting some Minneapolis mom.  

The fact that the existing Democrat leadership seems only be able to argue about points of legislative procedure and standing around pretending to be cool headed shows how unwilling they are to get involved in the accountability business.  There is one ruling party now and it's an 80 year old man with God Knows What health issues surrounded by Yes-Men and authoritarian zealots.  These guys are showing you that you will get shot in the face if you defy them, and there is nothing you can do about it.  The courts will not rescue us.  The Democrats exist now to serve the lip service "resistance", the same role that Putin has given to the performative "opposition parties" that serve as the Washington Generals role as imaginary competition.  The Democrats are sitting there playing checkers against someone hitting them with a boxing glove and they just keep saying "Well, when someone makes that guy play by the rules, he might lose this checkers game!".  There is no one coming to save anyone.  We aren't "slipping into autocracy", we are there.  Look around.  You live in Turkey or Hungary now, but everyone is somehow more stupid.  

But just when that can bum you out, the good news is it's Wild Card Weekend!   Let's turn that frown upside down, bury the Mom and PLAY SOME FOOTBALL!  OK, I think the Rams are the best team in the NFL.  It's not a sure thing, that's for sure, but that's where I'm at as of today.  The Panthers fucking stink and there is a good chance that the Rams humiliate them in that carefully planned "Saturday Shitty Early Game Slot" usually reserved for the Houston Texans.  That point spread is one of the largest of all time in the modern NFL Playoffs, and I think it's too many.  However, I'm not running to the window to drop money on the Panthers even if they are getting 10.5 points.  I do think the Rams are going to score and score frequently.  Bryce Young is going to come though for me with an otherwise meaningless bullshit touchdown late to get me the Rams/Panthers OVER 45.5.

I am going against my longstanding personal policy and betting on a Trevor Lawrence led team with Jacksonville +1.5 at home against Buffalo.  Look, I think Josh Allen is more injured than anyone is saying and his mobility is limited.  More importantly, the Jags are just a better team right now.  This line is being led by the idea that Buffalo is the best team in the AFC, and they clearly haven't been.  It seems to me that there has been a generational shift in the QB stars where Mahomes/Lamar are sitting on the couch and the narrative of Josh Allen having a clear path to the Super Bowl is just sorta stupid.  The Bills aren't as good as they have been in the past.  The Jags last loss was the first week of November to the Texans and they are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10.  They've gotten really good but no one gives a shit because they're the Jags.  This is where the value is on this game.  I think they are a live Super Bowl team.  Jacksonville +1.5

Current record:  35-31

History Repeats and NFL Week 18

 

Something that not enough Americans do is travel internationally.  Our country is so large you could spend your entire life within our borders going from evergreen forests to desert to swamp to coastline and never see all of it.  Still, if you don't travel internationally, it's very difficult to have any perspective on global news.  I will never forget that one time I was walking down The Strip in Vegas in front of these rubes that were having this conversation while strolling past the Paris casino.  "Well Jenny wanted to go on a vacation in Europe and I said "Honey why go to all the trouble of traveling over there when you can see ALL of Europe just walking down the street in Vegas?".  I mean, what are you going to do with that?  It does provide fairly solid evidence that most people you'll come across in the next few days offering up opinions that will be fed to them via Fox News and Facebook view other countries as nothing more than Disneyland paper mache backdrops and casino themes for their own recreational needs.  Going to see the Great Pyramids in Egypt=Walking into the Luxor.  Same thing.

I am finishing up a book called "Berlin In War" which chronicles what it was like living in Berlin in 1934-46.  I fell into this after being in Paris and reading a street plaque which noted a small act of courage in Paris during the German occupation, reading the book "Paris 1944", which then led me into reading about what it was like on the flipside of that experience.  The most interesting part of the "Berlin In War" book is seeing the easy acceptance from the population and the normalization of things like secret police forces plucking their neighbors from the streets, losing personal freedoms, and total state control.  They went from the depths of post WW1 poverty and ruin to a total rebuild only to allow themselves to get plunged right into destruction again.  In 1939 they were living in relative prosperity and by 1940 despite their military strength were having to huddle in their basements every night while the city was getting bombed by the RAF.  

There were enough people that were ready to accept whatever bullshit that the government fed them, their Fox News of that time was a national radio system.  Whatever ludicrous explanation that was given for invading Poland, jailing Jews and political critics, mountains of money flowing into military buildup, etc, the population for the most part bought into face value from what the radio said.  There is a chilling similarity between demonization of Jews to targeting immigrants, invading Poland to striking Venezuela, eliminating German oppositional journalists to Govt pressured censorship of Kimmel/60 Minutes/Colbert, and the rise of Hitler's government model to the Trump Administration bulldozing our laws.  Of course, if you point this out to MAGA faithful they will get caught up in the wrapping paper of Nazi outfits and the lack of mirror perfect historical redundancy.  This is because of the general lack of education and inability of most of the population to be able to grasp complicated ideas and nuance.  In a world of swirling gray chaos, we live in a social media feed of people that look at life as a WWE script of heroes and heels.  

I would imagine that the spin of this blatantly illegal military strike on Venezuela and subsequent kidnapping of its leader will get framed as "America getting tough on drugs".  I can see the MAGA crowd doing a rah-rah tough guy cheer now, none of them having traveled further than "that one time we went to Florida".  They do not and cannot see Venezuela as a sovereign nation, filled with people just like them but in different circumstances.  We don't do empathy in the U-S-A.  Everything revolves around the narratives provided by our devices.  The Gulf War has shown that the lack of factual evidence isn't a real problem to a motivated cabinet, but at least back then we stuck with protocol of debate and presentation of what were alleged facts.  There will be some alternate reality constructed that will be acceptable to everyone as long as their gaming systems connect, Chik-Fil-A is open and you can get your vape cartridges at Speedway.  Congress isn't going to do shit.  We are the people of Berlin in 1938 waiting for our next radio broadcast to justify what previously unthinkable thing just happened. 

The news isn't all bleak though!  The Panthers are playing the Bucs to determined which one of them gets smoked in the Playoffs next week.  Now THAT'S drama!  I know that I should not get involved in this game.  All signs point to this being one of the biggest Eels of the season.  Tampa has been awful for two months.  They have lost 7 of their last 8.  The Bucs are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10.  They haven't won a game since five days before Halloween.  On top of that, Carolina is the one getting points!  All logic and common sense says to take as much money as possible and bet against the Bucs.  I know that this is why, when the game is so clearly one sided, and the line appears to be soooo wrong that it is a first class Eel.  I am powerless to stop myself from betting on Carolina though I know this will lose!   Carolina +3  

I found myself in a difficult position.  That enormous New Orleans under 6.5 win bet I placed with great confidence back in August is now sitting in a precarious spot with the Saints at 6 wins having won 5 in a row with Tyler Slough at QB.  If they beat Atlanta on Sunday, that was set up to be a major loss for me.  Then it hit me... New Orleans is an underdog!  Why, this isn't a disaster!  This is OPPORTUNITY!  I am now going to hedge out of my position by placing a matching massive bet on New Orleans +3.5, creating a fabulous middle.  If Atlanta wins by 1-3 points, I win both sides.  Any other outcome and I'm out clean.  If I can get a last minute Kirt Cousins led drive for a field goal, the Saints will become my all time favorite team.  I will take some of the proceeds and get myself some sort of ugly ass Saints hat ASAP.  New Orleans +3.5 for the middle.

There is nothing like a Browns v Bengals game in January with nothing on the line to capture the spirit of the NFL in Ohio.  I have no idea how the Browns can manufacture points even with the shitass Bengals defense on the field.  One Browns starting offensive lineman is playing.  Both tight ends are out.  The running backs are out.  It's Sanders trying to throw to Jerry Jeudy in the cold.  How is THAT going to work?  Meanwhile the Browns defense has always been good against Burrow.  They held them to 17 back when Burrow was healthy in September.  It felt like both of these teams have moved on to next year even more so than that horrible Jeff Driskol start the Browns had last season.  Or was that two years ago?  Man, do the Browns suck.  Cincinnati/Cleveland UNDER 47.5 

The Packers are playing a meaningless game against the Vikings.  I think they have to start Clayton Tune at QB after Willis got hurt last week.  Maybe it's Desmond Ridder.  I don't know.  I don't really care to be honest.  I just think they can score more than 13.5 points.  The Packers have been here before.  Remember when Love got hurt earlier this year and last year, they dropped in Willis who had been discarded by the Titans, and kept rolling.  The bar is set remarkably low here.  JJ McCarthy is starting for the Vikings, and he's shown he is more than willing to provide a couple short fields on turnovers.  I think the NFL's 11th ranked offense in the Packers can scrounge up more than 13 points.  Packers team total OVER 12.5 

Current Record:  32-30

The Newspaper and NFL Week 17

 

I used to get the daily newspaper delivered to my house.  I think not having a widely read daily newspaper, something which centered all discussions on current events on facts, has been a societal loss.  I talk to people now and again which have taken the bait on the idea that the media is some sort of enemy who can't seem to wrap their heads around the idea that the people that keep telling them not to trust the media are the ones pulling all sorts of scams that need to minimize the impact of what happens once they get caught.  When there are no solid facts, how can you even debate an issue much less hold anyone accountable.  Here's an example...  

Every once in awhile I think about the alleged suicide of Jeffrey Epstein.  This is a guy that was a total cockroach, who scurried on top of the shit heap by leveraging connections to free himself from consequence.  He had no discernible morality, thus felt no shame or remorse in a traditional sense.  The scenario that the American Public has accepted is this:  "So, that guy who was involved in wrangling teenage girls for powerful guys to fuck on his island killed himself.  Yeah, it was before he even went to trial.  It was quite a surprise he didn't try to just ride it out and get his crimes pardoned like everyone else in the country, but he just went and acted totally out of character.  Yes, it turns out he managed to kill himself in a maximum security prison.  Where were the guards?  Oh, they were sleeping.  Hell of a thing.  They just went to sleep on the job.  The security tapes?  Amazing thing, the video tapes from that tiny period of time are missing.  Yep.  The machines just didn't work for that tiny slice of time.  Oh well, that's what happened."  Meanwhile the American Public just shrugs and says "Ok".  Doesn't that seem worth looking into?  Seriously, the vast majority of our population are so fucking stupid you could present any news item, lay it out in painstaking detail, and they will still be either unable to follow it or just attach some fantastical illogical counterargument that they got fed to them on whatever bullshit social media platform that has broken their brains.    

It's sort of like the Golden Age of Yellow Journalism again.  It really was a better time when you could open up that tangible newspaper, point to the story and say "There it is" without wondering if they just were making shit up as part of some maximum grift.  It was a big deal if a newspaper fucked up a story back then.  All the crackpot shit was in those newspapers you'd glimpse at the grocery store checkout lines, understood by everyone except my college roommate's mother to be entertainment.  (Actual phone call from his mom once... "Be careful if you go out tonight.  People are stealing kidneys from teenagers.  It's true.  I read it in the paper."). From a selfish standpoint I liked to walk down my driveway first thing as some sort of "first person instant weather report", back in the days before we looked at our phone to confirm it was cold outside in the winter months.  There's a satisfaction to walking barefoot in freshly fallen powder to retrieve the NY Times Sunday edition, your feet getting numb and painful as you do that herky jerky high step walk as if you can keep your feet off the snow by high knee lifts.

I started re-watching MadMen over the holidays.  I remember the tail end of that culture, men smoking cigarettes opening the newspaper to find out what had happened.  When I watch that show I get flooded with sense memories.  There were some distinctive smells to that era, a combination of old tobacco, men's hair tonic, and whatever industrial cleaning product that had dominant market share.  It's odd what you remember from childhood, so much of it these sharp little details that float in your brain without context.  The sound of a leather shoe turning on freshly waxed tile.  The feel of a worn leather bound menu at a dimly lit big city restaurant.  The sharp taste of ginger from a cookie.  The sound of a manual car window being rolled down.  Also in my case, the smell of a cheap cigar being lit at Veteran's Stadium by the man behind me watching the 2-11-1 Eagles futility.

I have been watching shitty pro football teams for almost my whole life.  Geographic proximity has doomed me to rooting for the horrific Eagles teams from 1968-1974 where the best team I saw in person was the 1974 team that won three at the end to finish 7-7.  We moved to Erie in 1975 and had to choose between the Steelers (couldn't get tickets), the Browns (they sucked) and the Bills (Hey, they had OJ!).  In 10 years backing the Bills, I saw two winning seasons (1980-81).  I went to college, and didn't really follow anybody because I didn't have a reliable TV.  Then I moved to Cleveland and made the worst mistake of my life, going in on Bleacher tickets on the Browns.  I have seen 6 winning seasons while staring at the Browns for 36 years.  To summarize, I have had great interest in pro football for 57 years and my teams have had winning seasons for 8 of them.  I have never had a team I support get past the divisional round of the playoffs and into the conference championship game.  Not once.  I am an expert on what losing organizations do.

This is why I am focused on betting against losing organizations this Sunday.  The real whopper of the week is where the loser of the Raiders v Giants game gets the #1 pick.  The Giants give all appearances of the organization actively trying to sabotage the team's chances, but the Raiders won't be outdone and just sat their two best players in Bowers and Max Crosby.  That game is a wilderness of mirrors.  The question there is will Pete Carroll, who is sure to be fired, try to win more than that Giants interim coach who needs to show he's not incompetent.  The hell if I know.  I'd like to say I'm staying away, but all the way back in August when I thought the Raiders would win 8 games or so I took an early line of Raiders -2.5 as I was sure the Giants would suck.  That line is now Raiders +2.5, so I'm five points the wrong way.  Ye Gods.

The Jets are clearly tanking.  They, as usual, need a QB in the draft.  I don't know why they think they can turn around the fortunes of this team by ruining some poor kid's life by drafting him, but they will make that same mistake they've made with Zac Wilson/Sam Darnold/Christian Hackenberg/Geno Smith one more time.  That spread is up to two touchdowns, so I am going to take the Patriots in the first half -7 as I assume Vrabel will want to crush the Jets spirit early.  Quick reminder, the Area Youth is still in at QB for the Jets and he's bad... real bad.  NE -7 First Half   

The Browns are the absolute worst franchise in American pro sports.  Despite all the evidence, they have decided they can "lose to victory".  I'd like to point out the 76ers tried this concept and failed.  The Jets have done this and failed.  The Browns themselves have done this and failed only a decade ago.  I will likely wait and see what the Ravens do tonight in their "I guess I'll watch it" game vs the Packers in the exciting Snoop Hundley v Malek Willis head-to-head.  If the Ravens lose, they're done so Pittsburgh might take off the gas on Sunday.  If the Ravens win, Pittsburgh will come into town to deliver one of their patented bully-kick-to-the-nuts games they love to do in December.  Side note, the Browns and Steelers roster is almost the same, yet Pittsburgh is about the win the AFC North and the Browns will pick #2 in the draft.  The Browns organization is a fucking bunch of losers and they always will be until the hapless dumbshit Haslam grifter family sells the team.  The Browns will do what they have to do to lose is my prediction.  If Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh -3. 

Current record:  31-29

  

Christmas Past and Netflix Football.

I am cooking a leg of lamb for Christmas.  I used to have this dish every Christmas Eve when my family would go to Tarrytown NY to visit my Aunt Rose and Uncle Jack.  As far as I know, that leg of lamb is the only thing that was ever successfully prepared in that house.  The powerful combination of East Coast Catholic historical cuisine, general lack of interest in cooking, and living in New York all but guaranteed that any homecooked meals there would be bland and horribly over/undercooked.  My Uncle Jack knew how to cook that lamb though.  Rose was too busy holding court and smoking cigarettes to offer much help.  After she turned 50, I don't think Rose ever finished a meal as she was too distracted by conversation.  They're all gone now, my cousin Nancy passing away this summer unexpectedly.  It doesn't seem that long ago, but now when I think about that long table of people, only Krusty, my NY cousins and I are left.  Sigh.  

Christmas is quiet for me now, but I kind of like it.  The bassets doze by the fire.  I open some good wine (Grand Siecle Champagne No. 25 in this case) and gamble on football.  It's sort of a second shot at Thanksgiving, by any rational argument America's finest holiday.  After my stupid heart procedure I didn't even set up any decorations.  That bummed me out a little bit last week, but now as I think of all the teardown I avoided I couldn't be any more pleased.  The day will ease past and I can count on the most important things in life: cooking a good leg of lamb, opening an aged Bordeaux, and winning some money betting football.

I'll come back with regular Sunday action, but I wanted to loop you in on today's plays.  I am fucking red hot.  I have hit 13 of my last 14, and that little Vegas trip swung my overall season numbers richly in my favor.  Today's games are complete bullshit, but I think there is a way to get at them and maintain mild interest during the sure to be amateur Netflix broadcast.  When these digital companies overbid on these games, I bet the last thing they thought when they got these matchups is the games would be almost meaningless, and would feature three third-string QBs.  That's the way I got at this today.  With the spreads, there is too much to chance as you can't tell how motivated Dallas or Denver is to pile on.  I decided to roll all three teams into a moneyline parlay.  Dallas/Detroit/Denver moneyline.  

You can run up to the window and put money down on Josh Johnson, Max Brosmer or the "Area Youth" that is lining up for Kansas City, but I am not getting into that business.  I have seen Josh Johnson play, and he's not great.  He's exactly what you think you're getting in a journeyman 3rd string guy.  He's probably awesome in the film room, brings bagels, and agrees with everyone about everything in the building.  He's not going to lead a shitty Washington team to a win over the Cowboys though.  

Brosmer has been really shitty when he has come in, like enough so that Viking fans are hoping that piece of shit JJ McCarthy gets back in the lineup.  That's a bad sign.  I think Detroit coming off that loss will be max motivated as they got sort of fucked last week v Pittsburgh and are still in theory alive for the playoffs.  Dan Campbell teams after a loss have been great.  Although I see this as the weakest of the three legs of this parlay, I think Detroit gets it done.  

The Chiefs dynasty came to a thudding end a couple weeks ago, then Minshew blew his knee out three minutes into the following game leaving some guy to play QB that was universally reported to be "really fucking terrible".  That guy gets to play against a brutal Denver defense coming off an embarassing asskicking at home from the Jags.  Denver wants to get the #1 seed, and I'm sure they wouldn't mind kicking KC when they're down along the way.  KC put four (4) players on the IR this week and for all intents and purposes have closed the book on the 2025 season.  If Kansas City were to win this game, I would consider that to be the biggest upset of the last decade.  It's inconceivable to me that Denver loses this game.  By tying all three together moneyline, I got it at -123.  I'm down with that PLUS it gives me something to watch while the lamb slowly cooks away, I sip on my wine, and I reminisce about the ghosts of Christmas past.

Season record:  31-28