Nurse The Hate: Holiday Travel Fun and NFL WEEK 16

I was in Barbados this week.  I went diving for the first time in three years.  It was nice to flop into the ocean and explore shipwrecks, look at big stingrays, sea turtles, and fuck my ear up making a rookie mistake in pressurization.  Carlise Bay is an outstanding dive site.  It wasn’t easy to get there.  The trip took fifty two (52) hours from door-to-door.  I went into this trip optimistically.  The good people at Klusterfuck Airlines sent me an email assuring me my flight timed to beat the BOMB CYCLONE would be right on time.  Why, I even checked in, drove to the airport, and settled in for a pre flight sandwich as I got ready to board.  I had outmaneuvered THE BOMB CYCLONE.  This was when I received a text.  “Klusterfuck Flight 2655 has been delayed 20 minutes.”  

Hey, no problem.  I will still make my connection and all is well with the world.  Shortly afterwards I received a new text.  “Klusterfuck Airlines Flight 2655 is cancelled.  Good luck bro.”  It turned out that when I received the email at home to get to the airport for my flight, the plane I would be on was already grounded in some other city.  I immediately got on my phone as I walked to the Klusterfuck Airlines desk.  I have found that having someone in person is much better than navigating the Electronic Dungeons of Airline Call Centers.  This is due to the fact that almost everyone at the airline call center is largely incompetent.  These are not high paying jobs.  They do not attract the elite students, or people that excel in multi-faceted problem solving.  The barrier of the phone allows these people to abandon you at the first hurdle, whereas if you are standing in front of someone, they at least have to try to do something.

Klusterfuck had automatically reticketed me for a Wednesday departure.  The issue was it was currently Thursday.  That was six days away.  I was to return the following Friday.  Klusterfuck was going to send me to Barbados for 22 hours at a price of a ticket that could have bought me a decent used vehicle.  I strongly objected to this plan to the good people at Klusterfuck.  This was when I went into full Land Sailor mode.  While the rest of the gazelle lined up for whatever Klusterfuck would dish out, the cheetah re-booked himself on JetBlue for a Saturday post-BOMB CYCLONE departure at a price we can all agree was criminal. I then called Klusterfuck and had them agree to pay for this ticket.  

Now, you might ask yourself, “How did you do that?”.  Allow me to let you into the secret of dealing with corporate America.  The secret is to get past the gatekeepers on the front lines.  When the call center tells you “We can’t do that.”, they are probably telling the truth.  They are outfitted with computer software that allows them to make almost no independent decisions.  You’ve been on those phone lines.  Are you, as the CEO, going to allow your stock holders to hold you accountable for the decisions made by the call center agents?  No way.  This is the absolute key in dealing with these call centers.  Continue to ask for a supervisor, but do so in a non-threatening way.  Call center operator has no interest in moving an angry caller onto their supervisor to have a conversation about how much they suck.  “Excuse me, I’m not angry with you.  I understand there is only so much you can do to help me.  You’ve been great, but can I speak with your supervisor?”

This needs to keep being repeated, on multiple calls if necessary, until you find a logical human being with a shred of power.  It took me four calls with 13 different people until I struck gold. Once I got the right person, what I had been told was “impossible” was handled in a few simple key strokes.  While countless gazelle slept on airport floors like shivering refugees, I made it to my new connection city, albeit two days late.  I then spent a night at the slightly terrifying South Boston Bayside Doubletree where I did not receive my touted warm cookie emblazoned on the shuttle bus, but I did keep my door locked for fear of the dozen high-as-fuck Middle Eastern men wandering the halls yelling across the hotel at each other.  I had an Xmas Eve chicken parm sub delivered in one hour and fifty seven minutes by a man named “Tom” who was on a bike at 11:23pm in 14 degree temps.  I was torn between tipping him generously for being out and getting me fed on Xmas Eve at almost midnight or stiffing him completely as he showed up 80 minutes late with a cold sub.  I tipped him pretty well when I saw the guy.  Let’s be honest, you’ve made some bad choices if you’re delivering Uber Eats on a bike as a 50+ year old man on Xmas Eve.

The next day looked like it would go off without a hitch.  There was no sign of the swarthy Middle Eastern guys and their cologne and warm up suits.  The shuttle bus even got me to the airport.  This was when I sat on the plane on the runway for two and a half hours in Boston because the Xmas Day airport baggage staff had sent all the luggage for all international flights to the wrong place.  I was so close.  I was on the plane.  In my seat.  Now I’d be cutting it close for Xmas Dinner where I was expected two days ago.  At last, the plane took off, and I got there a mere 52 hours after I had started.  I had 17 minutes to shower and make it to the dinner.  Mission accomplished.

The trip ended.  I’m back in it.  Now I am looking to early 2023 with great uncertainty.  My two beloved basset hounds are on their last legs, their bodies betraying them despite their great spirit continuing.  I remember my Aunt Rosemary towards the end of her life saying to a friend of mine, “Dammit, my body is just breaking down.”  I don’t know which is worse, having your body break down with a crisp mind or your brain gradually wasting away while your body continues on as you stare blankly ahead like a mannequin propped into a wheelchair.  It’s easy to fall into doom laden reflection on New Year’s Eve.  It’s difficult to detach from the Age of Anxiety that defines the 2020s thus far.  I need to focus on the important things, like the Tampa v Carolina game on Sunday.

When two crappy teams play late in the year, it usually doesn’t mean anything.  This time it means one of the crappy teams is likely going to host an NFC Wild Card Playoff game.  There is no doubt that Carolina has been playing better than Tampa in the last month.  Tampa can’t move the ball until Brady’s last drive in the 4th qtr, which isn’t great as they have been down by more than one score multiple times.  Meanwhile Carolina has been running the ball with success.  This makes sense when your quarterback is Sam Darnold.  The last thing anyone with any brain in their head is going to want to do is put a game in Sam Darnold’s hands.  So, I see two ways Tampa can win.  1) They take away the run and force Darnold to win the game.  That’s what Pittsburgh did to Carolina and they killed ‘em.  2)   Tampa doesn’t stop the run that well, but for some reason every time Carolina gets something going, a holding call kills their drive.  Let me ask you, who does the NFL want to see?  Dallas at Tampa with Tom Brady or Dallas at Carolina?  Which way do you think the refs call this game?  I won’t make the same mistake I made when Tampa played Seattle in Germany.  Tampa money line.

Pittsburgh is doing what Pittsburgh does.  They have quietly moved closer to .500 with good defense and short high percentage passes mixed with a lot of running.  I am not very excited about what I am seeing in Baltimore.  Lamar is out again, and if I were waiting to negotiate a $200M+ contract I wouldn’t be in any hurry to get in harm’s way when I wasn’t 100% either.  JK Dobbins is their biggest offensive weapon, and he’s clearly playing hurt.  Baltimore, like Pittsburgh, is keeping in games with defense.  These Balt v Pitt games are always close.  I will take the team that has played better this month that is trying to somehow get to a winning record AND that is also getting points.  I think the Steelers are maxed motivated and the Ravens understand they are not going anywhere without Lamar.  Pittsburgh +2.5

I am also going to tease a bunch of these teams that are playing motivated against worse teams with no motivation.  Jacksonville +3/Steelers +8, Steelers +8/Lions even, Jacksonville +3/Lions even.  Jacksonville is playing the Texans that in no way want to pull a win out and somehow lose the #1 overall pick.  I think the players are all going full out, but you’d have to think the front office is going to advise a game plan with little chance of success.  Same with Chicago.  If they keep losing, they have a shot at the #1 pick.  The only way they score is when Fields runs the ball.  Fields is so banged up, the Chicago front office must be strongly aligned with Fields not getting hurt.  Detroit just needs to win at home versus the worst team in the league.

Current Record:  26-19-1       

 

Nurse the Hate: The Bomb Cyclone, Radio and NFL Week 15

 

I was at a chain drug store looking for sun block, the way one does in Ohio in December.  Most people were busy hoarding bread and milk in a frenzied manner, preparing for the oncoming "Bomb Cyclone".  I really enjoy the new weather terms.  It's like a Hollywood popcorn movie executive became in charge of the National Weather Service.  A "winter storm" isn't that big of a deal.  A "Bomb Cyclone" is something where you emerge blinking from the ruins of your home in shock as your belongings swirl around you ripped beyond recognition.  The problem is this is "Bomb Cyclone III", and neither of the previous Bomb Cyclones were that memorable, so I think the National Weather Service needs to drop the Bomb Cyclone franchise and get into something new.  It's like when they started doing Marvel films of all the D list comic book characters.  I suggest we move into "Nuclear Winter Skeleton Death Storm", or some other random collection of foreboding nouns.  "Acid Flame Ice Apocalypse" or "Certain Annihilation Snow Event".  They need something that will recapture people's attention.  The Boy has cried "wolf" too often.

The store had a local radio station on their sound system.  Some warhorse of a song was playing.  I think it was "Life Is A Highway".  Then when the song ended, a promo played.  "106.5 The Lake!  We'll Play Anything!".  Then Dexy's Midnight Runners "Come On Eileen" came on.  If that isn't living life on the razor's edge, I don't know what is.  Those motherfuckers at 106.5 The Lake are so insane, that at any given moment they might drop Kenny Loggins "Danger Zone" on you.  They are like those guys from Jackass, able to pull any incredible stunt whenever you least expect it.  I think we can all agree, going from an early 1990s Counting Crows hit right into A-ha is the type of risk taking behavior we all wish we had the pure guts to pull off.  And the thing is, they just openly brag about it.  We. Will. Play. ANYTHING.  The pure bravado is breathtaking.  When someone responsible for that playlist walks into the room there must be a combination of hushed silence and nervous energy.  "Hey... You see that guy over there?  He's from The Lake.  He will play ANYTHING.".  No way that guy pays for a drink anywhere in the surrounding area codes, just as a sign of pure respect.

Now if I think about a radio station that will play ANYTHING, I'm thinking about a playlist that goes from a deep cut on Tom Waits "Real Gone" LP into a Scott Joplin rag straight into Funkadelic "Free Your Mind And Your Ass Will Follow" followed by a couple movements of Mahler smack into something off Pink Floyd's "Atom Heart Mother" record like "Alan's Psychedelic Breakfast" into something from Zeke's "Dirty Sanchez" record with a twin play of Johnny Cash Sun Records sides.  I mean, if you're going to swagger around bragging about your recklessly open playlist, at least try to deliver on that empty promise.  That's the thing about radio.  The Corporate Gods that own it are completely unaware of its power. In their fear of risk, they are stubbornly clinging to the idea that the media climate is the same as it was in 1990 and people don't have a million choices on the device they pay to carry around with them.  As difficult as it is to believe, there is a business that is broadcasting the same song loop of 300 or so songs cut up with 12 minutes of commercials per hour that thinks it can offer the same old shit like nothing has changed in the last two decades.  

The radio business was built on syphoning off as much profit as humanly possible by cutting expenses.  What a run the industry had.  Captive listeners in cars in the 1990s could choose from 8-12 somewhat crappy options, and three companies controlled all of it in each city.  Where else could all those ears go?  When mobile technology crept in, radio could have doubled down and made great content, but instead they chose to cut expenses and staff.  DJs voice track multiple markets, meaning they record all the breaks in advance, making sure to avoid any mentions of locality like "Great day to be at the beach today" as an unexpected thunderstorm pelts the city.   Group think song testing makes sure that the lowest risk songs get played over and over and over.  These companies have created their own bland coffins yet appear to think that if they continually suggest "they'll play ANYTHING!" no one will notice how dull the station is to anyone with a pulse.  

It's the continued slog of futility that gets me.  These radio stations do the same thing over and over as if the risk of changing the way they do business is more questionable than continuing the certainty of their current actions.  It reminds me of the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns do what they do over and over, yet each season are sure they've cracked the nut this time.  In what is truly a gift to no one, the Browns will play the Saints Xmas Eve in polar temperature with gale force winds.  This will be an ugly game where points will be difficult to come by.  The Browns clearly have the better running game, and just activated their starting center from the IR.  The Saints, a dome team, come in from the South to play in this frigid hellhole.  It all looks good for the Browns to ground out a win.  However, I'm betting the Saints.  This isn't so much a bet ON the Saints as it is a bet AGAINST Wonder Kicker.  The Browns kicker, drafted in the fourth round, has been, shall we say, underwhelming.  His confidence might not be shot, but it's severely dented.  One of the teams on Saturday will need to execute a big kick.  It ain't going to be Wonder Kicker.  The Browns are only capable of giving their fans disappointment for Christmas.  Saints +3.  

When I was a kid, my family had Buffalo Bills season tickets.  The Millers have always been cursed to follow terrible football teams.  My time as a Bills ticket holder managed to thread the needle between the OJ Simpson era and the Jim Kelly led AFC dominant teams.  I went to the Joe Ferguson Bills, teams that struggled to be relevant.  Each season the Miami Dolphins would pummel the Bills.  Home or away, it didn't matter.  The Dolphins beat the Bills twenty (20) times in a row across the entire 1970s.  I was at the game when the Bills finally beat them in 1980.  The crowd rushed the field and tore down the goal posts.  One of the guys that sat next to us, a steelworker, cried openly.  The people of Buffalo hate Miami to this day, for obvious reasons.  They have better weather, better teams, and are home to beautiful people.  Buffalo is home to people that drink and smoke and eat wings and die for their football team.  It's a huge game to this day when Miami comes to town.  You know what happens the week after the Bills v Miami game?  The Bills have a let down.  4-27 ATS the week after playing Miami.  Chicago +8.5

The Raiders, a team that has pretty consistently shoved it up my ass this season, got that miracle last second win last week vs the Patriots.  If they don't get that late TD call and the miracle turnover, this would be a very different vibe in Vegas.  The Raiders win paints over their last minute collapse versus Baker Mayfield and the Rams (who couldn't get a TD vs the Packers last week as opposed to the two the Raiders gave up in five minutes), and their overall disappointing season.  The Raiders roll into Pittsburgh this week, and the awful BOMB CYCLONE.  Pittsburgh is celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception and just days before, Franco Harris dies.  In a freezing cold game where passing is going to be limited, who is going to be the tougher team?  Tomlin leading the Steelers after the wake for Franco Harris while playing on the North Pole OR the Raiders flying in from Vegas a couple days early?  We are all thinking it.  The Raiders are soft.  Pittsburgh -2.5

Season Record:  24-18-1

Nurse the Hate: Wine Gifts and NFL Week 14

 

This time of year I get besieged by friends sending me desperate text messages.  "I'm at a wine store and need to get something good for a gift.  What should I get?".  This is a completely reasonable plea for help.  The only thing more complicated than picking out a bottle of wine for consumers is to get health insurance.  They both sort of have that same vibe of "I'm getting ripped off because I don't understand what these assholes are telling me".  Once again, totally justified thinking.  There are something like 30,000 different wine labels in the United States alone.  I am in the Master of Wine program, a suggestion that I am at the top of the heap of understanding and expertise in all things wine, and I will sometimes pick up a bottle from the shelf and think "What the fuck is this?".  How does a normal person not obsessive about wine have a chance?  Allow me to lay out a simple formula for buying wine as a gift.

First of all, what does the person receiving the bottle consider to be "good"?  If the recipient normally drinks $10-$12 grocery store chardonnay, a $25 chardonnay is a great gift.  If the person brags about how they love Caymus and Belle Glos wines, a similar priced wine from a different producer in the same region is great.  In my opinion, a "good" wine is one that matches or surpasses the level of wine the person normally drinks.  If the person loves McDonald's, get them some Applebee's.  If they usually eat Applebee's, get them some Outback.

So there you are looking at the 3417 bottles of wine on the shelf.  What do you reach for when you can't get in touch with me?  Normally I would say, "ask the clerk at the store", but if you aren't at a wine specialty shop or upscale grocery store, the person stocking wine might know as much about wine as they do repairing a Wankel Rotary Engine.  They will make comments like "ummm, this one is very popular".  You know what else is popular?  Commercial country music, Machine Gun Kelly, Real Housewives TV shows, and Burger King, and they are all shit.  You need to walk into that store with a strategy.

If the person only drinks white wine:  If they ONLY drink chardonnay, chances are that means they only drink domestic chardonnay.  If that's the case, look for something that was made on the Santa Barbara coast.  It will be less expensive than the Napa/Sonoma options, so you can get more for your money.  If you feel like the person has a shred of adventurous spirit to them, look for a German or Alsace riesling for more than $20.  Anyone who doesn't like riesling says that because they have only had cheap shitty riesling.  It would be like saying "I hate Chinese Food" because the only time you ever tried it was from Panda Express.  The market for these rieslings is small, so the producers can't drive price.  Trimbach and  Hugel are well distributed wines from Alsace.  Donnoff and Loosen are widely available German rieslings.  The labels can be confusing as shit, so look for the word "Kabinett" or "Trocken" if you want to avoid sweeter styles.  But between you and me, EVERYONE likes sweet.  People just think they seem more sophisticated when they say they only like dry wines.

If the person only drinks pinot noir:  That "Sideways" movie led to a great deal of interest in pinot noir, which means this finicky ass grape gets planted in places it shouldn't to meet demand.  So if your gift recipient only drinks cheap pinot noir, you can blow their minds by spending $65+ on a Sonoma Coast or Willamette Valley pinot noir.  If you want to get out of it on the cheap, look for pinot noir from New Zealand at about $18-25.  These wines are reliably better than same priced wines from the United States.  You can push the envelope a bit and look for Beaujolais, but this is important, look for something on the label that says "Moulin A Vent", "Morgon", or "Fluerie".  Beaujolais Villages or Nouveau is basically made to pound back in cafes.  The way European labeling works is that, in theory, the more specific the place where the wine came from, the better the quality of the wine.  For example, wine from the village of "Morgon" is better than "Beaujolais Villages" blend which is better than a regional blend of "Beaujolais".   A really good quality Morgon will be $30, is comparable to pinot noir, and is a more interesting gift.

If the person only drinks cabernet:  We all know dudes that live for their super expensive Napa cabs.  I get it.  I was that guy.  "I'm a word hard/play hard guy with a big fucking watch and I only drink Napa Fucking Cab!"  Everyone's boss at a white collar job drinks those.  However, those wines are so fucking expensive, it is hard to justify spending $50-$200 on a tannic full bodied red wine.  I present to you a way to provide a great gift to the Napa Cabernet lover that won't cost you an arm and a leg.  The word you want to remember is "Rioja".  In every wine shop us a little section for Spanish wines.  Look for a wine that says "Rioja Reserva" or "Rioja Gran Reserva".   The wines are great quality, similar taste profile, and they'll cost you $20-$40.  

The holiday season is a never ending hemmorage of cash.  What used to be a season of joy and warm feelings has now descended into a never ending series of transactions.  Ho Ho Ho.  It's nice to smoothly transition into "curmudgeon" at an earlier age than expected.  Regardless, I could use some extra cash, which is why I am so excited to gamble wildly on Saturday afternoon.  For many people the best part of the season is to see the joy on a young child's face as they take in the wonder of the holiday.  For me, it's gambling on a Saturday afternoon triple header of NFL games while I desperately make online purchases to check off my gift list.

The Colts are awful.  After the Josh McDaniels aided Raiders loss the the Colts, Indianapolis has gotten back to their game plan of tanking for next season.  Matt Ryan looks like Johnny Unitas when he was a Charger or Joe Namath as a Ram.  That team is playing for their next contract.  Even the assistant coaches must be packing up their offices.  Now, we expect them to roll into Minneapolis to beat a pretty good Vikings team at home?  The Vikings aren't as good as their record, but they are a lot better than the Colts.  Minnesota -3.5

This is the time of year to make uncomfortable bets.  That's right, I'm on the Bears.  It is hard to come up with an Xs and Os reason why the Eagles don't stomp the Bears.  It's the best team in the NFC versus a shitty Bears team playing out the string.  Here's the thing...  I have a hard time seeing the Eagles bringing their A-game this Sunday.  They just killed the Giants and have Dallas on deck.  It's a great spot for a let down.  The Bears haven't been great, but getting 8.5 at home seems absurd.  I don't like to bet on backdoor covers, but doesn't this seem like a game where the Eagles go up by 13 and the Bears just sort of hang around and score a meaningless touchdown at the end to cover?  Chicago +8.5 

Two weeks ago Washington and the Giants tied 20-20 in NJ.  The Giants then got killed by Philadelphia last week, and now are preparing again for Washington.  Meanwhile Washington left that tie game to go into their bye week preparing for the Giants re-match.  So for three weeks Washington has been doing nothing else but scheming on how to beat the Giants.  That's it.  The Giants have reverted back to being the crappy team we all expected.  They can't run the ball like they did earlier this year, which means more falls on Daniel Jones, which is not a good situation to be in.  Washington money line.        

Season record:  23-16-1 

Nurse the Hate: My Red Wagon and NFL Week 13

 I used to have a red wagon.  I don't want to imply that I recently had this red wagon.  I had it when I was seven years old or so.  I am not sure why kids in my era were all given wagons.  Maybe children in that time had more things they needed to haul around, hence the need for a wagon.  We all had wagons.  I don't recall seeing kids laboriously tugging wagons filled with rocks, but yet all parents got kids wagons when they turned five or so.  Maybe the wagon lobbyists had a great marketing campaign that suggested you were a shitty parent unless your kid had a wagon like Disney browbeats parents today.  Regardless, we all had wagons.

It didn't take long to realize a wagon wasn't much fun as a stand alone toy.  Placing something in a wagon and moving it somewhere else is a chore, not play.  That was when I and my fellow neighbor children began to sit in our wagons and go down the steep hill near our homes.  This was an age well before TikTok videos urged behavior like leaping off roofs with skateboards.  We genuinely thought this was a good idea.  It vaguely occurred to us that hurtling down a paved road with only the handle of the wagon as a steering device was a bad idea, but the sheer joy of speed overrode common sense.

I think it was a kid named Michael Johnson that wiped out.  It was him or Christopher.  By the way, those kids weren't "Mike" and "Chris".  They were "Michael" and "Christopher".  I might have been hanging out with a bunch of hair stylists and not known it.  Anyway, Michael overcorrected with his wagon handle, and the wheels locked up.  This flipped the wagon face first with Michael holding onto the wagon handle and thus rolling the wagon with him down the pavement and eventually into the ditch.  It was like that "Agony of Defeat" ski jump clip but with a seven year old kid and a metal wagon making a terrific clanging noise. 

The bleeding Michael did what any kid his age would do, run home crying.  We did what any kid that age would do in response, also run home to hide from whatever inevitable adult retribution was headed our way.  I don't remember getting in trouble over that, but I do vaguely recall hauling the battered remains of Michael's wagon to my garage where we attempted to "fix it".  Note, seven year olds are not adept at repairing bent metal.  That wagon never rolled correctly again.  That's the way it goes.  Sometimes you have to take your lumps.  That's what I plan to do today when I venture into the Wilderness of Mirrors that is the Lions v Vikings game.    

One of the highest profile games of the NFL gambling year is an otherwise meaningless Lions v Vikings game.  For whatever reason, this is THE GAME that anyone with an opinion has action on.  There are two conflicting narratives.  1). The Lions have quietly become a Top 12 team in the last month and are wildly undervalued.  This is the perfect spot to bet the Lions as they take on a wildly overvalued Vikings team that has pulled out wins out of their ass despite not being very good.  Narrative 2) is that the Lions are great as underdogs because they keep playing hard and get backdoor covers.  As a favorite though, they are still the Lions and will be the Lions, ripping your heart out with a stupid turnover late or a horrible strategy error from the coaching staff.  This is the time to bet the Vikings because you don't get to be 10-2 by accident, and the fact that the Vikings keep winning shows you they do what it takes.  You have to bet the Vikings because they are winners, and the Lions are losers.  

Here's what I think.  If the line makes massive line moves like this (Vikings favored by one all the way to Vikings getting 2), bet the opposite way of the money.  Every dipshit with a Fan Duel account has been piling on the Lions.  Frankly, I can make a case for either game narrative, but in the end, I like betting against Fan Duel Nation.  If you bet the Lions this week, you have come to the same conclusion as a dude with a backwards baseball cap named "Randy" that loves commercial country music and drives a Jeep.  Vikings +2

I watched Deshaun Watson play last week.  He wasn't good.  At all.  It turns out that not playing a football game for over 700 days and then just hopping out on the field with world class athletes that have been playing every week for the last 4 months is quite difficult.  The Browns have somehow managed to downgrade their offense just in time to face a surging Bengals team.  Let's also not forget the Bengals are home with maximum motivation after being embarrassed by the Browns on Monday Night Football a month ago AND they need a divisional win in the worst way.  Oh, and the press keep asking Joe Burrow why he can't beat the Browns.  I think Cincinnati kills Cleveland today, but we just need them to win by a touchdown.  Cincinnati -5.5

Season record:  22-15-1

  

Nurse the Hate: Roulette Wheel and NFL Week 12

 

I didn't know the three guys sitting at the roulette wheel.  A friend of mine did though.  The guys owned a home improvement company of some sort, the kind of guys that charged you $12,000 for water proofing you don't need and then high five each other for ripping you off.  They were sitting behind an absolute mountain of chips.  I don't know how much money was there but I'm guessing it was $60-$75K.  They were laughing it up, showering waitresses with tips and reveling in being in the spotlight.  

I will tell you this about roulette.  The odds are awful.  The only reason to play roulette is if you are wildly intoxicated or are with people that don't know how to play blackjack/craps.  The longer you play, the more the certainty that you will lose.  As I looked at those guys, I immediately thought "you have to get up from that table NOW".  My friend said to one of the guys, "You guys need to quit right now while you're ahead."  They just laughed it up, like they had somehow cracked the code.  It was late.  3am or so.  I took the elevator to my room.

When I woke up in the morning, I was still stuck in EST.  It was about 730am.  I decided to go downstairs to get something to eat.  To be honest, I had forgotten about the roulette guys.  However, when the elevator doors opened, I saw two of the three guys still sitting there.  The only difference was that now they had about $400 in chips in front of them and downturned expressions.  They had lost it all.

I was speaking with my associate in the desert, and we agreed that the next few weeks are fraught with danger.  I feel like I have a grasp on the teams, who is good, who is bad, etc.  What I don't know is what teams have quit.  Who is already thinking about not getting hurt and getting their next contract?  These are the real stories that don't get reported.  If the savvy football gambler is not careful, these next weeks are when you can lose all the work you've done.  I DO NOT want to be the sad sack guy at the roulette wheel.

I do think however that the Rams have quit.  Every top shelf player that won a Super Bowl ring is out.  They are a rusting husk of a once proud ocean liner taking on water.  It will be interesting to see if there are more Seahawk fans or Rams fans at the game this week.  LA residents have as much interest in the Rams as Miami residents do the Marlins.  I have some concerns about the legitimacy of Seattle, but the Rams are possibly the 30th or 31st best team in the NFL at this point.  Seattle -7

Last year the Jets third string QB Mike White had a big start and the NY Media Machine went to work telling the narrative of this diamond in the rough they had uncovered.  White had a big start last week, but let's temper ourselves...  It was against the Bears.  I suspect White will have a much different experience this week against the Vikings in Minnesota.  Give me Cousins at 1p at home all day.  The Jets are still the Jets.  Minnesota -3

The Raiders have got me the last two weeks.  They won't get me a third time.  Yes, I do believe that the Chargers are poorly coached.  Yes, I also believe that they are fabulous at finding ways to lose.  I do not see the Raiders winning three straight,  I just can't get there.  I am going to tie them into Cincinnati at home getting points and watch these two games unfold on Red Zone.  LA Chargers +8.5/Cincinnati +8.5

Season Record:  20-14-1