Nurse the Hate: Roulette Wheel and NFL Week 12

 

I didn't know the three guys sitting at the roulette wheel.  A friend of mine did though.  The guys owned a home improvement company of some sort, the kind of guys that charged you $12,000 for water proofing you don't need and then high five each other for ripping you off.  They were sitting behind an absolute mountain of chips.  I don't know how much money was there but I'm guessing it was $60-$75K.  They were laughing it up, showering waitresses with tips and reveling in being in the spotlight.  

I will tell you this about roulette.  The odds are awful.  The only reason to play roulette is if you are wildly intoxicated or are with people that don't know how to play blackjack/craps.  The longer you play, the more the certainty that you will lose.  As I looked at those guys, I immediately thought "you have to get up from that table NOW".  My friend said to one of the guys, "You guys need to quit right now while you're ahead."  They just laughed it up, like they had somehow cracked the code.  It was late.  3am or so.  I took the elevator to my room.

When I woke up in the morning, I was still stuck in EST.  It was about 730am.  I decided to go downstairs to get something to eat.  To be honest, I had forgotten about the roulette guys.  However, when the elevator doors opened, I saw two of the three guys still sitting there.  The only difference was that now they had about $400 in chips in front of them and downturned expressions.  They had lost it all.

I was speaking with my associate in the desert, and we agreed that the next few weeks are fraught with danger.  I feel like I have a grasp on the teams, who is good, who is bad, etc.  What I don't know is what teams have quit.  Who is already thinking about not getting hurt and getting their next contract?  These are the real stories that don't get reported.  If the savvy football gambler is not careful, these next weeks are when you can lose all the work you've done.  I DO NOT want to be the sad sack guy at the roulette wheel.

I do think however that the Rams have quit.  Every top shelf player that won a Super Bowl ring is out.  They are a rusting husk of a once proud ocean liner taking on water.  It will be interesting to see if there are more Seahawk fans or Rams fans at the game this week.  LA residents have as much interest in the Rams as Miami residents do the Marlins.  I have some concerns about the legitimacy of Seattle, but the Rams are possibly the 30th or 31st best team in the NFL at this point.  Seattle -7

Last year the Jets third string QB Mike White had a big start and the NY Media Machine went to work telling the narrative of this diamond in the rough they had uncovered.  White had a big start last week, but let's temper ourselves...  It was against the Bears.  I suspect White will have a much different experience this week against the Vikings in Minnesota.  Give me Cousins at 1p at home all day.  The Jets are still the Jets.  Minnesota -3

The Raiders have got me the last two weeks.  They won't get me a third time.  Yes, I do believe that the Chargers are poorly coached.  Yes, I also believe that they are fabulous at finding ways to lose.  I do not see the Raiders winning three straight,  I just can't get there.  I am going to tie them into Cincinnati at home getting points and watch these two games unfold on Red Zone.  LA Chargers +8.5/Cincinnati +8.5

Season Record:  20-14-1