The BMW X3 and NFL Week 7

After four years, I just saw my old 2010 BMW X3.  I don't have any love for the car, but I owned it for about 8 years where it served as my "winter car".  If you get down to brass tacks, it was actually my "dog car".   When you have two basset hounds that need to be ferried around, you need to accept the fact that they are going to make one of your cars filled with shedded fur and smell like old fritos.  My old bassets Monty and Ryver had so many health issues the last few years of their lives that I must have driven them once a week to a vet as I siphoned off all money for a new "winter car" into basset care.  I added it up one time and over the last few years, I spent $21,000 on those dogs (and would do so again).  I loved those bassets. 

The car had 160,000 miles on it when I got rid of it.  I had crested the point with an old car when you stop making major repairs and start to look for the "good enough" solutions to problems.  By the time I was ready to purchase my next car, that BMW needed a new drive shaft, complete brake job, four new tires, new windshield, muffler, and exhaust pipes.  I remember my mechanic telling me, "I think you can keep it on the road for another 3 months, but I wouldn't drive it further than one uber ride away."  As I was driving back and forth from the vet mostly, I limped through the 2022 holiday season before trying to see what I could get for it as part of another new used car deal.  Enter Leo...

We were talking in the van about my finally looking around for a new used car (a 2015 Audi Q5 with 70,000 miles on it during that bleak post covid period when used cars were insanely inflated).  I had a dealer that must have made a killing on his previous deal offer me something like $1500 for the BMW to be part of the deal.  I'm telling you, that BMW was essentially scrap at that point.  Leo, hearing this, asked if I would sell him the car instead.  I told him "That's a terrible idea.  I cannot stress to you how fucked up this car is.  You don't want any part of it.".  I still remember him telling me "All I know is I am going to be really mad if you don't sell me that car."  Events had taken on a life of their own.

He had owned a BMW X3 some years earlier, purchased as he purchases most things, by randomly walking into someone selling it.  I distinctly remember telling him not to buy a BMW with more than 100,000 miles on it unless he was ready to pay $1500 in the least opportune times.  Every single BMW repair costs $1500 even if it's a wiper blade replacement or side view mirror repair.  It just doesn't seem to matter.  If you own a BMW, the sweet spot is miles 10,000-50,000.  There are a few repairs that come like clockwork at 60,000, and then you can cruise to 100,000.  After that, it's caveat emptor.  Leo waved away this foreboding warning sort of like when someone in a children's story is scolded not to go into the haunted woods at night.  He went skipping in singing a nursery rhyme oblivious to the dangers ahead.

That car began to give him problems almost immediately.  I cannot stress to you enough how fucked up it was.  If it was a horse, you would have shot it out of mercy.  He must have been behind the wheel for about 30 days when he picked me up for some reason.  I remember when he started the car the dashboard lit up like a Christmas tree, a sea of twinkling red lights.  As a guy that owned 8 BMWs over the years, I recognized that if they have a warning light go off, it's not advice.  It's "you better take care of this fucking problem or we are going to seize up on you when you are 72 miles from your house."  That is, of course, exactly what happened.  That particular X3 was towed at some point to his old work helper's house where I believe it was briefly started again until the engine seized up and was sold for scrap.  RIP.

Having this past experience did not deter Leo from buying yet another BMW X3 with high mileage, in this case mine with 160,000 hard, hard miles.  I sold it to him for whatever that trade in offer was and took a few hundred off for mercy.  It was, perhaps, the worst used car anyone could have purchased with the exception of my father's famous "Hooligan" he owned for a brief period in the mid 1970s.  Leo gave it over to his friend, a mechanic that specializes in repairing BMWs, that put in a new drive shaft, did the brakes, and maybe the windshield?  I don't remember all the details, but Leo felt confident enough to allow his wife to drive it to Florida.  This is a feat I would place alongside Charles Limbaugh's transcontinental flight as an accomplishment of pure daring.  Shortly afterwards the car broke down again.

I heard legends that the car occasionally ran again in short spurts.  I think that engine seized up too.  If I can offer up a guess as to how that happened I would imagine that it was ignoring some Xmas tree lights on the dash combined with the fact that the car was tired.  So so tired.  This is when the story took a turn and I learned that Leo had decided to drop a new engine into the car.  I can't understand the logic of doing that.  As I had mentioned, I had driven around with basset hounds in that car for almost a decade and about three years prior to getting rid of it abandoned almost all care of the interior.  This is not a gorgeous one-of-a-kind vehicle with some slight engine issues.  It's a beat to shit 16 year old car with almost 200,000 miles on it.  I would have to think that if you added up his initial purchase price, the primary repair costs, tows, cost of tires, and now the new engine installation we would be talking about the purchase price of an X3 with about 100,000 less miles and undoubtedly better condition interior.  But, Leo is gonna do what Leo is gonna do.  There is no stopping it, much as you cannot stop a river flowing or the moon rising in the sky.  It's happening.

On Tuesday I was driving over to Hector's to practice.  We are dialing in about 11 new songs for a new record, so we were all eager to get going.  My phone rang with a call from Leo, which was odd as he's not much of a phone guy.  "Hey buddy."  This alerted me to the fact something was wrong.  I don't get a "buddy" unless there is an issue.  A "Hey G!" greeting means something of much less significance.  He told me he was broken down on the Cedar off ramp and asked if I could give him a jump.  I wasn't sure why his battery would quit while he was driving, but I said I was on my way and figured I'd assess the situation once I got there.  When I arrived, I saw it.  Holy shit.  It was my old X3 after all these years, broken down, just like the last time I had seen it a few years ago.  He had tried to jump it to no avail, and decided to push it off to the side of the road and "deal with it tomorrow".  I thought he should have towed it then and there, but he assured me that "he had a guy".  Uh oh.  

As far as I know, that old BMW is still sitting there on the off ramp.  I think it is a testament to man's desire to see a dream through, no matter how unlikely that it is to come true.  We all knew that this project would probably end in great failure, but sometimes you just have to try.  There is something to be said for that kind of stubborn resolve to just see it through, fighting against headwinds so strong it would knock down a lesser man.  I could identify with that.  I too have that stubborn streak and I am going to put it on display by once again getting involved in a wager involving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Bucs are my 2010 BMW X3.      

I am going to once again get involved with a Tampa game despite being 0-3 in calling them this year.  That piece of shit rookie QB tossed that game killing INT last week just like I had feared that he would, so the good news for Bucs fans is Baker Mayfield appears to be coming back this week.  Mayfield, who dislocated his thumb on his non-throwing hand, is no stranger to playing hurt.  I saw that guy playing hero ball and blowing games for a full year while a healthy Case Keenum stood on the sidelines cashing checks.  With Mayfield it's never clear if he wants to play as some sort of macho posturing or if he is more worried about not getting enough attention.  It might be a combination of both.  Tampa is a staggering 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games.  I don't think I have ever seen that with an NFL team, and I lived through the 1-15/0-16 Cleveland Browns era.  Carolina has covered three of the last four times they have played Tampa, are at home, and appears to be a much, much better team than Tampa.  Carolina -2.5

I'm doing it.  I'm on the Raiders.  I think we might be in that time period where the public refuses to release their preseason notions on the Rams being some kind of superteam.  The Rams are a friggen mess.  They have Davante AND Puca out this week.  Myles is still out with Aaron Donald looking like a guy that just came out of retirement.  Stafford suddenly looks old (as can so often happen to NFL QBs, see Manning, Peyton and Brees, Drew for reference).  The Raiders have fallen back out of favor with the public after going from 3-0 to 3-3 in three quick weeks, but let's put it into context.  The Raiders lost to the Bills, Patriots, and Chiefs- three AFC Playoff teams.  None of us think the Raiders are a playoff team, but it looks like they have ascended to be one of those teams that loses close games at the end by 3 or scores meaningless backdoor covers with cheap TD passes with no time on the clock.  The Rams have two wins this year.  Arizona and the Giants.  They definitely "need" this game, but the Raiders at home with points?  Why not.  Raiders +4.5

The Browns v Tennessee game is perhaps the least anticipated game of the 2026 season.  The Browns offense sucks (28th), but the Titans sucks worse (31st).  Watson will fire passes into the dirt for three quarters but with Cam Ward, I don't even think that he knows where it is going.  Neither team can run the ball in the best of scenarios, and both defenses are pretty good.  I am on the UNDER as the only way I can imagine this going over is if the special teams score or Ward tosses a pick 6.  This game should be essentially unwatchable, so thank God I will have a stake in it to keep me somewhat attentive.  Cleveland/Tennessee UNDER 38.5

Current record:  9-10

The LinkedIn Swamp And NFL Week 6

 

I made the mistake of opening up LinkedIn to respond to an email there.  Like most normal human beings that end up having a LinkedIn account, I was told I "had to be there" by people in my old job.  Like a fool, I listened to them which has allowed the cesspool of Corporate America to seep into my world on an unwelcome basis since I set up that account.  To those of you reading this not involved in Corporate America, consider it a blessing to not have to log onto the platform.  I assume the initial idea was to create a Facebook type community for people in white collar jobs and unfortunately it turned into Facebook for white collar jobs.  It's a nightmare.  

LinkedIn, as I see it, exists for two primary reasons. 1.  For people to self promote themselves via corporate speak and false humility to allow them to leave their current soul crushing job for their next shallow soul crushing job.  This is where people will say passive aggressive things like "I am humbled and honored to have accepted a new position with (insert company) as the assistant regional manager.  We have an absolutely incredible team that is the best in the business that is dedicated to (whatever the company does expressed as some selfless act)."  What they really mean is "I just got a promotion to be the assistant manager that oversees Rochester and Oswego, so I kind of think I am a bit of a baller and wanted to take a victory lap.  We sell sorta shitty office equipment.  The "best team in the business" I am referring to is some stupid hillbilly woman named Denise that heats up tuna fish in the microwave in the breakroom, this balding guy named Robby that likes to talk about a woman in shipping's "gazongas", Gary who has worked here for 14 years and spoken in a meeting twice, and Maureen who the company wants to fire but can't because she ginned up some alleged handicap.  None of us give a fuck but if we can sell you 4% more shit than last year, I'll hit my bonus and can buy a jet ski."

There is nobody worse than someone that is very fluent in LinkedIn speak and seems like a True Believer.  These are people which wear their profession as their only identity and have created a self worth totally focused on the fact that they have what they believe is status and power because they get to talk at the Monday morning meeting and can lord over 5-7 people who otherwise would never have to listen to them.  There is nothing that fills me with more schadenfreude than when one of those people gets "laid off" (they never get fired, only "downsized").  The combination of loss of confidence as their identity was stripped away plus the wild positioning of themselves as they scramble for a new job is a joy to behold.  I just saw some dickbag that used to work within the corporation I was mired in get clipped and is now manically "re-branding" himself.  As far as I could tell, when he was in his old job the only thing he did was attend meetings and shoot out jargon filled emails with no substance.  He had some bullshit titles like "Director of Enterprise Growth" and was a "Director of Local Sales Initiatives".  I have no idea what he actually did because as a guy that was bringing in money, I never thought about him at all unless he had created some bullshit at the corporate level that served to only be a distraction and wasted my time.  As a guy once referred to a fellow salesperson at a job I had in the early 1990s, "He couldn't sell pussy on a troop ship".  Ah, it was a different age...  Anyway, the guy that got fired because he sucked is now madly posting after he couldn't find a new job and is justifying his new made up job of "consultant".   He just decided to launch his "company" which I assume means he created a new email address and maybe a website.  If you need some guy to talk shit, he's available. 

The other reason LinkedIn exists is for people seeking other jobs to make comments on other posts as a transparent attempt to curry favor.  Somebody will post that they are "humbled and honored" to be a sales rep for some piece of shit digital marketing company and then right underneath will be people in the comments saying things like "Congratulations Dan!  As a thought leader in the space you will be a huge asset to the organization!".  I think that person could save themselves some time by calling or texting Dan directly and saying "Bro... You think you can get me in over there.  I think these fuckers at my job are going to put me on a PIP.".  I guess LinkedIn allows a safe space for the true lions of Corporate America, those that can smile though any indignity and ignore the obvious while cheering on blatant stupidity.  Super active people on LinkedIn can find each other and say, "I bring a leadership-first mindset, an enterprise-aligned moral compass, and a relentless passion for transforming executive directives into actionable enthusiasm. My superpower? Knowing when to challenge the status quo—and when the status quo signs my paycheck."  

I can't tell you how happy I am not to be involved in that bullshit.  Embracing reality, no matter how grim, is a much cleaner path.  That's why I am betting on the Tennessee Titans.  Now you might ask yourself why anyone would willingly walk up to the window to hand money over saying, "I'd like to bet on a Robert Salah coached team with Cam Ward at QB please.".  This is a legitimate concern.  The Titans appear to be a clear cut bottom three team in the NFL.  However, every team in the NFL has to win at some point.  Why not today for the Titans?  The Colts defense is terrible, Daniel Jones isn't the same level of effectiveness with limited mobility, and their owner is wandering around the sideline with sparkly jackets and a head set.  This is not an ideal situation.  I suspect the Titans might win outright today, but in light of them consistently staying within one score in their losses, I'm on Tennessee +7.

I jumped on the Browns when they were at +5.5 when it was suspected Lamar was going to play tying them up in a teaser.  Now I did that when Philadelphia was at +1.5 and it was assumed that Jalen Hurts wasn't about to lose his leg to a tragic blood clot.  So now I am out there with all kinds of Eagles exposure with Tanner McKee about to make his first real NFL debut in front of a bunch of pissed off Eagles fans.  I don't know if Tanner McKee is going to be serviceable or not (my guess is "not") because I know as much about Tanner McKee as you do.  I sure as shit don't recall seeing exciting Stanford highlights where some guy was slinging the ball around, so I'm not feeling great about that.  Thus, I am going to have to backwards engineer my way out of that situation and make some uncomfortable choices.

The starting QB situation today is very murky.  I have no idea what that coy zesty fella Caleb is doing in Chicago, so that Bears game is out of consideration.  I certainly can't allow the Jets into my Circle Of Trust, so that's out.  Something about that Texans v Jags game screams out "eel", so I'm out on that.  The Giants v Saints game falls into my "Never bet a game with two shit teams with a mountain of injuries" policy.  Do I really want to get involved with the Arizona Cardinals in any situation, much less against a Rams team that needs a breather but also desperately needs the win?  Who wants any part of the Chargers right now?  They might just have to disband that disaster.  Dammit... I am going to have to bet this Tampa v Pittsburgh game...

I feel like Doyle Lonagan from "The Sting" as I am going to take Tampa +2.5 versus Pittsburgh today.  I just know that after I see a couple Q1 turnovers from future trivia question answer Jalon Daniels and the Bucs fall behind 10-0 I am going to try to crawl through the cage screaming "GIVE ME BACK MAH MONEY!  THERE'S BEEN A MISTAKE!!!", but here we are.  My thought is that Pittsburgh sorta sucks and can't score.  They can't run the ball at all, and Tampa has shockingly good metrics for a team that doesn't ever win football games.  Aaron Rodgers always plays like shit in Florida, and when his RPO facades don't have the Tampa defense biting, he will spend the day dumping passes to ineffective running backs and tight ends so he doesn't get hit.  If Tampa doesn't turn the ball over I think they can grind out some ugly ass game where Rodgers is yelling at guys on the sideline and his teammates are all exchanging glances trying to communicate "Why is this guy such a dick?".  I am filled with trepidation but I am doing it.

Current Record:  8-9 

   

Sorry Kid and NFL Week 5

 

I read about an incident at one of the Dodgers v Braves MLB playoff games where a foul ball went into the stands and an adult male caught the ball.  The guy was a huge baseball fan and after attending games for a couple decades, this was the first foul ball he had ever caught.  Meanwhile, ten rows in back of the guy, a mother sent her five year old kid back to ask the guy for the foul ball.  The guy said “no” and he wanted o keep it.  Of course, this immediately triggered outrage amongst certain people who felt like to deprive the kid of the ball was cruel.  As soon as I read it, I thought “Fuck that kid and fuck that kid’s parents.”.

Now before you go crazy at me, let me say I would probably have given the kid the ball.  Who needs a whole section of people getting on your ass for a baseball clipped into section 128 by Jeff Manto or whoever.  The ball would have gone home with me and then sat on my desk or on a shelf as part of my voluminous garbage I have collected over the years.  Yet, if I wanted to keep it, why do I have to hand it over because some kid a half a section away wants it?  At what point is someone going to teach that child (and his parents) the idea that your kid doesn’t get anything he wants just because you think he’s so fucking special.  What’s next?  I gotta give him my beer because he asked for it?  Sit the fuck down kid.  It ain’t yours.

I do feel badly for the kid though.  He likely had no idea of why he was doing it and must have thought, “Well, this seems unusual for me to walk down ten rows of stairs to go talk to a stranger and ask him for something that everyone seems excited about.  But Mom seemed to think it was the right thing to do, so I’m going to follow orders here.”.  Seriously, at what point did the society decide that all these kids are little princes that get every wish and desire granted?  There was some meeting held somewhere where all these parents agreed that their offspring were standout human beings, creatures so unique that the social norms needed to be upended to better serve their needs.  Was the baseball for the kid, or was it actually for the Mom to feel like she was the super parent that was manufacturing the ultimate childhood?  She is going to right all the wrongs of her own childhood by providing a storybook land of rainbows and unicorns for her own child.  The kid is 5.  He doesn’t give a shit.  The ball flying into the stands was exciting enough.  And you know what, life is filled with disappointments.  Maybe the kid needs to learn that now.  You want the ball?  Too fucking bad.  It ain't yours.

The other thing that pisses me off is the way that parent put the guy on the spot.  She was asking a favor of the guy, and she did it in the most passive aggressive way possible by sending some little boy over with the confidence that no one could possibly say no to such a sweet little bastard.  Kudos for the man for saying no.  He had to know he was going to catch a shit storm, but the real shit storm should be on that Mom for putting I’m in that position in the ultimate public setting.  Of course, then the internet roared to life and all these "Aw, let the kid have the ball" people chipped in.  Shut the hell up.  You are part of the problem too.  I worked with an entire generation of young adults that were groomed to think they were special.  They all thought they should he running the place as soon as they got hired because they had been told their whole lives how special they were and everything had been set up for them to get what they want immediately.  Bad news.  In this life you got a lot of shit sandwiches to eat.  If you haven't eaten one yet, that first one is going to be rough.  Better to have it when you're five so you develop a real taste for 'em.

Speaking of shit sandwiches, has anyone gotten to eat one of those like NY Giants fans?  They (predictably) lost their QB Dart to injury for the season.  The good news is they have Jameis Winston as a backup, so that means they can at least lock in for a season of "anything can happen" football where he will toss 3 TDs and 3 INTS in the same game.  Then they go out and trade for JJ McCarthy?  Good lord.  I don't know if we have ever seen an organization give up on a Top 10 overall pick as fast as McCarthy by the Vikings.  That kid must not only suck, but be such a total douche that they team was willing to publicly admit their failure by giving him away for a 5th.  Now he's a Giant.  Let me ask you, who's judgement do you trust with a QB- the Vikings or the Giants?  So as McCarthy's bad vibes settle into NY, they get the Commanders this week with Daniels coming back from a horrific elbow dislocation.  I'm sure he's not ready to play, but after having to toss that Rutgers kid in last week after (also predictably) Marcus Mariota instantly got hurt, they don't really have a choice in what is suddenly now a very winnable NFC East.  The real exciting part of this game is not who wins, because both teams sorta blow, but when do we all get to see another nauseating elbow dislocation when Daniels brace fails?  I'm on the Giants to keep it close in lousy Atlantic Coast weather.  I fully anticipate not watching one second of this game.  Giants +3.5

After the Lions burned me last week in getting smoked by the Panthers (the Panthers!) it has now become painfully obvious that the problem with the Lions is that old issue of "they aren't very good".  The Lions have the worst defense in football.  There's a couple dudes playing in the defensive backfield that a couple weeks ago were parking cars at the Motor City Casino.  A couple things to consider on this game...  Should the Lions be favored on the road versus ANYBODY much less on a short week?  How can you cover a football game when you can't stop anyone?  I'm looking for that old reliable effort from Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals where he has a chance to win the game for the Cardinals at the end and fails to make a play.  The last thing you see before they cut to yet another USAA commercial is Jacoby looking off pensively in the distance as he tosses a 4th and 7 pass into the turf.  Arizona +4.5 

The weather is going to be shitty in NY today.  I say this as a guy that is in NY and just purchased a plastic bag that is allegedly a "poncho" so I can get poured on at the Meadowlands watching our sex offender battle another great citizen in Geno Smith in what is sure to be a miserable watch.  I think the Browns and the Jets are essentially the same team, one of the great sea of teams this year in the NFL that get to be the "opponent" for the four or five good teams to steamroll on the way to their potential Super Bowl.  Neither the jets or Browns can move the ball very well and they both have stout defenses.  I am going to take the underdog, in this case the Browns, and tease them up further by matching them up with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  I don't give a shit on who wins that Browns game.  I assume it will be close and ugly.  On the flip of this is I think Jacksonville is catching the Eagles at a great time.  The Eagles Hall of Fame tackle retires, they trade their starting center, and as the veneer falls away from that amazing o-line, we are all discovering that Jalen Hurts isn't a "win because of" QB but more of a "win with" player.  I keep saying it, but Jacksonville is really good.  Take the points down and take the W here.  Browns +8.5/Jacksonville -1  

Current record:  6-8

The Ghosts Of Autumn and NFL Week 4

Something that was rather disappointing was to travel in the tail end of summer and then when I got back it was Fall.  It was like I jumped into a goddamn time machine.  It was sailing and grilling when I left.  I come back and it's leaves and those black/gray tinted high morning clouds.  Everything smells like going to high school and not understanding geometry.  I was so bad at geometry that I think the stress of getting called to the board and ridiculed by my teacher impacted my health.  I was sick that entire Fall.  I might enroll in a college geometry class just so I can finally understand how to calculate the square area of a rhombus despite never coming in contact with a rhombus as an adult (as I had predicted as a 16 year old).  My grasp of geometry was about the same as my grasp of Mandarin Chinese is today.  Slim.  I don't want to let the ghosts of autumn haunt me too heavily though.  I have my own dragons to slay...  the Master of Wine/writing one more decent Whiskey Daredevils song for our new LP/and turning around this NFL gambling.

Last Sunday I was fairly certain going into it that I was doomed.  It generally takes a month to get a handle on which teams are any good.  Up until then, it's all preseason hype and snowballing rhetoric combined with short term overreaction.  Team A lost last week, therefore Team A will never win again.  Pass it on.  I am aware of this and yet I also succumb to it.  I do it every year.  It's a tradition for me like unwrapping Xmas presents or putting up plastic skeletons in your front yard might be for you.  Side note, anyone that invests great sums of money into Halloween decorations that doesn't have kids under the age of twelve I harbor suspicions on.  Anyway, getting my ass kicked early is the way I spend great sums of money on the Fall like your stupid plastic skeletons you got at Home Depot.  If we are being honest, you likely get much more joy with your plastic skeletons than I do losing a game in which I took a position on the Tampa Bucs, so feel free to smugly smile at me as I walk past your Halloween Grotto Of Doom with my losing ticket.  You fuckers.  

That gets us into Week 4 and the chance to follow the axiom of ABG...Always Be Gambling.  Let's not let a little kick in the teeth ruin our autumn, shall we?  A smorgasbord of opportunity awaits the clever boy.  Let's first tackle the most intriguing game on the slate, the Raiders hosting KC.  I think there is a groundswell of optimism around the Raiders because leaguewide people want the Raiders to be good.  What's not to like about a bunch of Hispanic guys in pirate and Skeletor costumes drunk as shit on Modelo waving around plastic axes in the end zone?  The League is better when the Raiders get to play the part of dastardly villain.  There is a little glimmer that the Raiders at 3-0 might be a legitimate football team this year.  I think that is true as long as the baseline is set at "7 wins and competitive almost every week" as opposed to "Maybe they will win the West".  We are early enough that I don't feel comfortable leaping on the idea that the Dynasty Chiefs are back, but I do think they will score some points today over by the Mandelay Bay which will be flooding fat guys in red KC jerseys into Allegiant.  Kansas City Over 26.5 points.    

I am sticking with two concepts in which I entered the season.  1.  The Jacksonville Jaguars are good.  2.  The Cincinnati Bengals aren't.  Here's what we know about both teams.  The Bengals slipped past a shitty Bucs team in a game where Baker Mayfield fumbled four (4) times, somehow beat the Texans while only getting 12 first downs, and lost to what appears to be a shitty Steelers team.  That to me appears to be a team hovering in The Great Pack of teams which are all going to be around 7-8 wins.  Meanwhile the Jags kicked the shit out of the Browns, lost to Denver on the road by one score, and then kicked the shit out of the Patriots.  The Jags are good.  It doesn't seem like they are good because they are in Jacksonville and the only reason one thinks of Jacksonville is if you are having a conversation about meth.  Jacksonville is the better team and they are getting points.  Gimme the Jags.  Jacksonville +2.5  

Speaking of teams no one thinks about, how about the Carolina Panthers?  That team is the Applebee's of the NFL.  It is a team with a corporate committee approach to having an identity.  There is no organic excitement about the team, and even when they had that brief glory during the Cam Newton Era, there were no Panthers fans, only ticket holders that secured their seats from corporate benefactors.  "Going to the game Brad?"  Sure am.  Got some tickets from my guy at Gliotech.  We'll probably leave at halftime.  Cue to pre recorded announcer stadium drop:  Up on your feet Panther fans!  Roar!  

The Panthers have both offensive tackles and their best o-lineman (guard Damien Lewis) all confirmed as out of this game.  Both starting cornerbacks are hurt and out of the game.  That does not seem to be a recipe for success.  If these injuries had been on the Cowboys, it's all ESPN would have talked about all week.  Since it happened to Carolina, nobody knows or gives a shit.  I don't think the Lions are all that, but they really caught a sorta shitty Panthers team at a great time.  I'm hoping to see a 3, but I will fire on Detroit -3.5 if I have to.

I think the Miami Dolphins organization has a plan.  I like what they are doing long term by getting rid of all the players they had that were big money and not doing shit to help them win.  The downside of this is that as of right now they are fucking terrible.  They are 0-3 and have scored three touchdowns in 3 games.  All losses have been double digits, so it's surprising that they haven't scored more garbage time points.  They go to Minnesota where the Vikings are only giving up 13.7 points to opponents.  Toss in that Miami just lost Achane to a blown out knee, their best offensive player, and it's not a recipe for great success.  I was going to get on the Vikings, but it's hard to trust that offense right now to cover a double digit spread.  I am going to get on this by betting on Miami's failure to score and take Miami Under 14.5 points.  If you are way too into the NFL like I am, you'll note that Minnesota's defensive coordinator is well known red ass Brian Flores.  He comes after teams hard in general.  Making this game especially noteworthy is his still pending contentious lawsuit against the Miami Dolphins for wrongful termination.  The Vikings will stay in full blitz and Cover 0 packages until next Tuesday.  He's got to be shooting for a shutout here.  Former Miami Dolphins defensive back Jason McCourty said, "I was in the building when Miami fired [Flores]… he wants to whoop their you know what."  Terrible offense meets motivated defense.  Yeah, I'll take that under.

There is a season total out there that came to my attention.  The NY Giants still have a win total prop out there for Under 7.5 season wins available on many platforms.  To be clear, you are telling me that the Giants are going to win 8 games when they are underdogs today at home against the Cardinals?  If you are an underdog at home to what is considered to be a Bottom 3 team, what games are you going to be favored in?  How does a team that will be an underdog in all of their remaining games pull six upsets?  By trading for JJ McCarthy?  NY Giants UNDER 7.5 wins.

Season Record:  3-7