Historical Lessons And NFL Week 8

 

One of the things that I am most disappointed about is not having had the experience of seeing someone I know explode in a car when I scream out their name over the explosion.  While growing up consuming action movie and TV shows, almost every episode included a key plot twist when what was thought to be a primary character (who was somehow always just developed to the most surface way possible) would say goodbye, climb into their car, and from a safe distance we would see the car explode unexpectedly.  It's at this point you yell out their name, which was always a unique one, like "Loomis!!!!".  Based on the various documentaries of the time that I watched like "The Rockford Files", I was under the impression it was a normal occurrence to be reunited with a long lost parent, reach an understanding with them that suggested a flowering second chance, at which point you would watch them explode when you were about 500 feet away.  This could also be a previously estranged sibling, mysteriously lost romance, or perhaps an unexpected new friendship.  At the moment of greatest optimism, this is when typically they would blow up in a car.  This would force you, regardless of your current profession or life experience, to become a detective and bring the perpetrator to vigilante justice.  Why have I not experienced this?  What's wrong with me?

There have been times in my life when I felt like it would have been perfect for a car to explode, but it just never happened.  When that estranged girlfriend from my twenties mysteriously resurfaced a half decade later, it would have been amazing if her car had exploded while I yelled out "Loooooooomissssssss!!!!!".  Instead she just drove away in a Toyota compact because I wasn't home.  No explosion.  That lost opportunity robbed me of the chance of me being able to become a vigilante detective, and was thus doomed to sell media for a bunch of assholes.  Leo would be an ideal person to explode in a car, but I would assume it was some sort of self-destructive lack of car maintenance and I wouldn't launch an investigation.  If my legendary long lost Uncle Joe had resurfaced, he would have been an incredible person to explode in a car, but some nosing around in records by my cousin John found that he had died in a flophouse YMCA room in Cincinnati.  Again, no exploding car.  Sometimes I think that maybe these old movies and tv shows weren't accurate.

Like for example, Jim Rockford was always getting pistol whipped on "The Rockford Files".  Fucking guy every single week stepped into that trailer and got pistol whipped.  He never learned the lesson to just enter the house cautiously or just bought a better lock.  Every single week, bam, knocked out cold.  Then he's up and at 'em like nothing happened.  This led me to believe that I too would be pistol whipped with startling frequency as an adult.  To date, I have no (zero) pistol whippings.  I will also admit that I assume that in a tight spot I could swiftly pistol whip someone unconscious if I needed to poke around in their "files".  I've never had to do it, but if I needed to, it's good to think that skill is sitting there dormant and ready to use.  But does my lack of either pistol whipping or being pistol whipped indicate a shortcoming in my life decisions?  Have I taken too easy a path?  

When I think about the various self help shows I used to watch like "Starsky and Hutch" and "Baretta", I can't believe I never used these valuable life lessons.  How many times have I seen someone get karate chopped in the neck and shoulders area and immediately fall unconscious?  This must happen all the time,  but I have NEVER done that despite being in situations where it would have been very helpful.  Some regional sales manager wants to go over your pending and then just karate chop him/her unconscious and go about your day.  Or how about all the times I didn't walk into places through the kitchen with a swaggering nonchalance (with the exception of the Beachland of course).  History and life skills were being given to me at an impressionable age, and I just didn't have the courage... the GUTS... to use them.  I still have time to turn that around, but I'm not sure when I am going to get the chance to give out a good pistol whipping in the near future.  

Those that don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.  That's why I am no longer betting on any of the team in the NFC South.  I last won an NFC South bet in the second week of September.  It's no way to go through life losing money on the (mis)fortunes of Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, and Tyler Slough.  For the time being, I am out of the NFC South business entirely.  I am going to focus on a couple things that (I think) I know about, which are 1. pistol whipping and 2. the Cleveland Browns.  

The Browns have won in Pittsburgh in the regular season once in this century.  It is an absolutely staggering statistic.  However, this carries across two important eras.  The initial Browns "return to the league", which should have taken 3-4 years wound up lasting about 15-17 years.  They couldn't win a tough road game in this period unless the other team was stricken by polio the night before kickoff.  Then you go across the Big Ben era where the Steelers were just too fucking good and that guy had the Browns number.  I think the brief Aaron Rodgers time in Pittsburgh is a blip which makes these games a toss up.  I can't believe I am writing this, but the Browns are getting better QB play from Watson than the "better than we expected" play Rodgers is giving Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are coming back from Paris with no bye.  Teams that elect not to take a bye after the Europe trip are 0-8 ATS in their next game.  I am taking Cleveland +3.5 fully expecting to see Chris Boswell trot out to hit a 38 yard FG at the end of the game to allow Pittsburgh to win 17-14. 

Over the last few years I feel like I have a firmer understanding of the contents of the Epstein Files than I do Lamar Jackson's health week-to-week.  Epstein Files logical conclusion:  Trump and other super rich guys from across the political spectrum fucked kids.  That's why no one will release them.  It's bad for everyone.  Yet, that is clearer than whatever is going on with Lamar.  Is he going to play?  If he does, what's the situation?  I think this is focusing on the wrong thing.  Baltimore has beaten bad teams.  They have wins over Colts/Dallas/Tenn/Falcons.  The Browns beat 'em.  Cincinnati just killed them.  Why is Buffalo going to lose to Baltimore at home after their bye?  People keep sticking with the idea that Lamar is going to be the same Lamar they saw in the Buffalo game Sept 7, 2025 (which Buffalo won).  I think the Bills are the AFC's version of a "really good" team.  I'm not bought in on the Ravens right now.  Buffalo-3 

It's time to "buy low" on a couple of teams.  The national narrative on the Vikings is "they're going to lose this week and keep losing because now they're playing good teams".  I will agree that the Vikings offense stinks, but that defense is a monster.  Toss in the Lions have the 32nd ranked defense for yards per game, and that helps make that Vikings offense a bit more palatable.  Good defense typically beats good offense, and it really gets my attention when I am getting points.  I am going to tease the Vikings up to +9.5.  This is a team that has won their last 10 games in a row going back to 2025.  I think people have not noticed the Lions slide back from being elite to pretty good.  Their only two ATS wins this year are against the Jets and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the league.  There is a gap between perception and reality on this team.  I needed a dance partner here, so I am looking to take Jacksonville down to -4.  

Look, the Colts just tossed in the towel.  They traded their best offensive lineman, are "open to trading" Taylor, and fired the GM.  It's not even Halloween and they are playing out the string.  If you've ever been at a company that just fired a bunch of people and is talking layoffs, you know people are not thinking about putting their best into the job with clear focus.  The Jags always suck against the Colts for some reason, a variation of the Patriots misfortunes in Miami, but I just don't see how the Colts have their best game this week in what is to be an expected rainy/windy Jacksonville.  If the weather was good in Jacksonville, I'd lay the fucking lumber, but let's take some insurance.  The Jags have the #1 rushing defense in the NFL and it looks like the Colts will need to run to be successful.  Vikings+9.5 with Jacksonville-4.  If the weather is super windy there at kickoff, I will also jump on a Colts team total under.   Danny Dimes isn't going to sling the ball around in gusty wet Florida winds.  

Current record:  9-13  

Quick update:  I jumped on the Miami/New England UNDER 43.5 as there is a Caddyshack type storm rolling through Southern Florida all day.  The fear is the game just gets delayed, but 15-25 mph with "heavy thunderstorms" is not aligned with a lot of scoring.