Sunday, January 5, 2014

Nurse the Hate: Wild Card Weekend Part 2

Yesterday came together as I knew it would.  The 21st Amendment Bitter American session ale strategy coupled with the improbable Colts comeback allowed me to stay in my shoes and provide me with a false sense of confidence rolling into today’s games.  I kept it together while others talked openly about "killing myself with a pen" and "stringing myself up in the garage for my family to find me".  While this was mostly sour grapes combined with dangerously alcoholic beer choices, it points to the rapid change in fortune with NFL gambling.  It's almost impossible to succeed.  I was able to resist the urge of making that sucker teaser bet on the totals.  I stayed the course, going with my gut.  This is really a perfect storm situation.  Sitting flush with my winnings, I will now probably give them all back in one fell swoop in the early game.  I have such confidence that the Cincinnati Bengals will win today I cannot begin to tell you.  This will be my undoing…

As I discussed yesterday, I look for one flimsy piece of evidence to stake my wager on.  I will wave my hand at all other factors and choose to focus in on this one trend that in my mind will provide irrefutable evidence about the events that are about to unfold.  In this case, it is Wild Card road teams that are underdogs by more than 3 points are 4-33 straight up.  That does not suggest that the San Diego Chargers have much of a chance today. 

While placing all emphasis on past events, we are discounting the “Bengal Factor”.  At any time Andy Dalton is capable of turning in a "Weedenesque Minor" game (only “minor” as no one can hope to perform like the true maestro Brandon Weeden).  Marvin Lewis will be totally outcoached.  The Bengals will have a terrible gameplan.  They will not even attempt to get the ball to their best players.  The defense will take wild chances and fail.  They will get big penalties at key times crippling the team.  The “Ohio Factor” of general doom and failure will float over the stadium like a mist.  These are all very real concerns.  However, I am going to go right ahead and take Cincinnati on the money line despite the horrible price of -270.  4-33 is a trend that I think we can all get behind.   

The Green Bay/San Francisco game has everyone convinced that the Packers have no chance.  I don’t know why that is the consensus as the shitty Green Bay team down the stretch had no Aaron Rodgers.  His return immediately moves Green Bay into the category of “a real football team”.  The weather forecast today, from what I can see on The Weather Channel, is “Cold As Fuck”.  This is a term that isn’t just bandied about normally from respected news sources like The Weather Channel.  When I see “Cold As Fuck”, I expect to see a lot of running plays, mid range passing and turnovers.  This leads me to believe that the Packers can hang in there.  To keep it interesting, I’m going to make a small play on Green Bay +3.  This will only happen if I am smug about winning the early game and decide to toss dollars at this complete coin toss of a game.


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