Nurse the Hate: NFL Week 15

If I had played my cards differently I would right now be relaxing on a tropical island with my biggest concerns being where to make a dinner reservation, hoping I don’t kill myself diving, and hoping a sand flea doesn’t hop into my champagne.  “Cocktails at the Sand Bar Luv?”  I operate well in that scenario.  Instead I was walking the bassets in 17-degree weather on crunchy icy sidewalks trying to make heads or tails of this weekend’s slate of NFL games.  It’s very important to provide distractions for the mind so as to not look around your surroundings and go completely mad.  I don’t hear the phrase “completely mad” often these days.  I would like to be able to take off a pair of glasses, wipe them with a handkerchief and say something like “Leo?  Oh, he’s gone completely mad.” before replacing the glasses and crossing my legs with a dismissive expression.  I suppose there’s nothing stopping me from doing so.  I’d probably have to wear a three-piece suit and check my pocket watch to really pull it off.  I just bought a pair of expensive boots, so taking on the added expense of a pocket watch might be a bit much right now.  Yet another crushed dream.

The reality is December is cold and bleak.  Don’t let the festive plastic Santas lit up all over town fool you.  It’s the time of year when many NFL teams have realized they are playing not to get hurt and put down “good tape” for next year’s contract negotiations.  It becomes very important to ferret out who is playing for something and who is going through the motions.  That’s why this Chargers at Kansas City game is worth a look.  We are talking about two teams somehow fighting to win the AFC West at 7-6 though both look dicey at best.  A couple of key points in this one.  The game is on Saturday night where a well-oiled bunch of Midwestern drunks are not worried about going to work on Sunday as they wear ugly red Chiefs gear in the Kansas City night.  That is not a scenario that portends to great success to a team flying in from Southern California.  I was walking around in San Francisco on Monday in shirt sleeves while tourists from LA were outfitted in down jackets with scarves.  People from LA think temperatures under 68 are polar exploration weather.  It was 58 degrees in The Bay, not nice and chilly like it will be in Kansas City on Saturday. 

Now it’s true that most of the Chargers are likely tougher than Kaitlyn and her yoga class from Orange County, but the Chargers don’t travel especially well out of their time zone.  Certainly, not to Kansas City.  Kansas City is 4-2 against the spread at home this year and 9-2 against the spread at home in prime time.  They are also 8-1 vs the AFC West in their last 9.  On top of that, they’re getting points.  Oh, I like the look of that.  I like that quite a bit.  To give the Chiefs points at home seems “completely mad”.  Kansas City +2

I am going to bet against the Browns.  This should always be assumed unless I make a point otherwise.  It’s like swinging by a hospice and betting on “death”.  The only two things certain in life are taxes and a Browns loss.  This week they play the Ravens at Browns Stadium.  Normally the savvy gambler would factor in home field advantage, however I think there will be more Ravens fans than Browns fans at the game.  Tickets are currently $6 in the secondary market.  It’s really a nice weekend for Baltimore fans.  Fly in Friday, eat at a Michael Symon restaurant, Saturday go look at Jimmy Page’s dragon pants at the Rock Hall, Sunday pop over to the stadium for a win and then home by 7p. 

The Ravens are giving seven, which might be too many.  The Ravens offense is terrible, despite lighting up the Steelers last week in their heartbreaking loss.  They are getting better at the end of the season, like all good teams.  The Browns, like all bad teams, are firing people in the executive office.  Anyone that is associated closely with the old regime would be recommended to take some shit home in a box over the holidays.  With the Ravens at 7-6 and on the Playoff bubble, I am expecting them to win.  Yet, I don’t want to give 7.  Therefore, I am tying in the LA Rams at Seattle as well as Ravens moneyline.

The Rams are for real.  No, I don’t know how they got so good so fast either, but they are the real deal.  They go to Seattle this Sunday who is absolutely decimated on defense.  The Public is under the impression the Seahawks never lose at home.  That’s why the Rams are getting the points.  Seattle is 1-5-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.  I am going to tease Baltimore -1/Rams +8.5.  I don’t know if the Rams win, but I don’t see them losing by two scores.  Hell, like the rest of you I will be watching that Pittsburgh v New England game.  Someone let me know when I win. 

Season Record:  18-16-1