Nurse the Hate: Discussing Climate Change and NFL 2022 Week 1

 

I was arguing with some strangers online about the existence of climate change, which is both a waste of time and highly aggravating.  I have spent the last year fairly immersed in agricultural practices due to this insane MW quest I've undertaken.  The result is I know more about climate and farming than a man that can barely keep a small patch of grass and some evergreen trees alive should know.  Here's what I have learned.  If you own a family business growing grapes in France or Australia, you don't care about the battles of American politics.  The only thing these people care about is bringing in a crop.  Their only position on climate change is "how can I prevent crop loss and losing my house".  

If someone tries to suggest that climate change is a topic of debate, ask them why they think that in the last 700 years of harvest records in Burgundy, 18 of the last 20 have been the earliest harvests on record.  You could also discuss why England can suddenly ripen grapes and French Champagne producers have been buying up large swaths of land in Southern England.  Invasive insects are traveling further north.  California is running out of water.  The globe is full of brand new farming problems that have suddenly appeared where people have done things the same way for centuries.  Well, until now...

So I'm arguing with a big group of Fox News viewers who are parroting back all the same talking points that have been placed by the $2.1 trillion (with a T) fossil fuel industry.  The problem is that Fox News people only believe Fox News, and discard any information that doesn't confirm their beliefs.  For example, NASA notes on their website that 97% of all currently publishing climate scientists are in agreement on the existence of man-made climate change due to the greenhouse gas effect.  That's essentially everyone that is an expert in that field.  The Fox News people were adamant that "scientists" don't know anything and climate change is some sort of grift created by Al Gore and AOC.  It was only 68 degrees yesterday, therefore climate change is some sort of nefarious liberal plot.  It's hard to follow the logic path.

That Fox News argument is basically taking the position that gravity doesn't exist because you saw a balloon float.  "Well Mr. Smarty Pants if this so-called gravity of yours is a real thing, then why did my son's balloon float away?  Hmmm?  And why is that kite flying over there?  Gravity is just a way "they" are trying to control our Freedoms!".  It's exasperating.  I mean, what are you going to do?  There's a lot of shit stupid people out there.     

I make this point to focus on the task at hand, betting on NFL Football.  The NFL betting market has many of these false narratives chirping away that The Rubes parrot back and forth to themselves.  These narratives impact the gambling lines.  Why get mad at The Rubes when they can help make you money?  Here's an example...  The Rubes all think Carson Wentz is horrible and can only fail.  Please note, I DO NOT think Carson Wentz is a great QB.  He must rub people the wrong way, because they couldn't get rid of him fast enough in Philly or Indianapolis.  Wentz must be the guy in the office no one wants to invite to Taco Tuesday.  Sure, Wentz choked in a must win game in the final week of the season that allowed the Colts to miss the Playoffs.  That certainly didn't help.  That has led to his current rap as a shit QB that can't play.  He's not awful though, and that's why Washington signed him on the cheap.  

This week Washington, who I expect to be "OK", plays Jacksonville, who won three games last year and has the worst record in football two years running.  Jacksonville exists so people don't talk about how crappy the Jets are.  Yet, Washington is -2.5 at home against Jacksonville this Sunday.  For some reason, the narrative is Jacksonville is going to be much better this year because Urban Myer is gone (which will have to help) and Trevor Lawrence is a can't miss NFL QB.  Meanwhile Washington is doomed because Wentz is terrible.  Really?  2021 stats:  Lawrence 12 TDs  17 INTS and 28th in QBR for a team that had nothing but garbage time stat padding games.  Wentz:  27 TDs 7 INTS and 9th in QBR.  So I get the better team with an improved QB from last year and only have to give the Jags 2.5?  Washington -2.5

Another big narrative is that the Dolphins are going to be really good because they signed Tyreek Hill.  Tua is going to blossom into a big time quarterback because of all these weapons on offense.  Look out!  Here come the Dolphins!  If you look at the moves the team made, they shuffled the receiving corps up and got a new coach/OC/DC.  They are basically the same team that missed the playoffs in 2021 and got fined because of player tampering.  They look like one of the "they could be pretty good, but I dunno" teams, but they seem like sad sacks that haven't won shit since Larry Csonka carried Don Shula and his polyester slacks off the field in triumph in 1972.  

Here's what I see.  In week one the Dolphins host the Patriots.  New England has had problems winning in Miami.  It's a division game, so it's a priority.  The Hoodie does what he always does.  He finds a way to get an edge.  The Hoodie shut down training camp and moved the team to Miami for Training Camp II to get used to the heat and humidity.  Miami gets to play their first game with a brand new head coach, a brand new playcaller, and a brand new defensive coordinator.  They get to match wits with the best coach ever, the guy who's teams are #1 against the spread.  New coaches/offensive coordinators are 9-21 ATS in their opening games.  That's against everyone.  You want to bet that trend with a splashy receiver signing or take Belichick +3.5?  New England +3.5