Nurse the Hate: And So It Begins

 

I live close to the high school football field.  Not close enough to smell the sizzle of the parent manned hot dog hut or hear the overstimulated chatter of middle school kids.  It is more of a background thumping of the marching band and booming echo of the PA announcer.  I have never attended a local high school game in this community so I am not sure of the protocols of when the bullhorn sounds, but I'm assuming it is during scoring plays for the home team.  The sounds waft across the darkening skies in the cooling September air.  It's starting to smell like Fall.

I saw a bunch of the players later that night going into the local BW3.  The boys still had their undershirts on from the game, the grubby clothes their badges of honor.  There is nothing quite like the swagger of a 17 year old high school football player after a home win.  Those boys just a few years back undoubtedly watched the classes of boys older than them engage in the same ritual with a combination of envy and awe.  This was now their moment and they knew their roles.  They peacocked into the restaurant with feigned indifference yet painfully aware they had placed themselves on center stage.  This was, and in many cases will continue to be, the pinnacle of their lives.  

When I was in high school we didn't go to a chain restaurant.  Our move was always the unsanctioned house party where it strikes me now that my memories of exciting storylines and dramas playing out with the obligatory backdrop of AC/DC's "Back In Black" cassette blasting doesn't really mesh with the reality of the timeline.  Kevin is sulking in the driveway because he fumbled and Karen is the one consoling him instead of his girlfriend Rachel.  My God!  And the three douchey linemen are shotgunning Stroh's in the kitchen to impress the cheerleaders so no one noticed that Patty came to the party without Dale and word is they had a fight at the game.  Holy shit.  And now that Tammi girl who normally hangs out with the burnout chicks is in the woods with Joe and Stacy is super pissed off and trying to get shit started with Tammi's friends so I bet we can clip a couple of beers from their cooler while no one is looking.  

So much happened that would dramatically shake the foundations of the social structure of Monday.  It was hard to take it all in with this much going on.   Major events unfolded at every corner of the party.  It was a semester's worth of action all at once.  This is the illusion of being that young.  In retrospect, this epic film was more of a youtube video.  Almost everyone had to be home by Midnight curfew, so the party would have broken up by 1130p.  The game would have ended at 930, so the party couldn't have even assembled until 10p.  It was 90 minutes of action, tops.  It was a layover at O'Hare.  Damn, it sure seemed to be important at the time.  Now, it's easier to focus on what is really important.  Covering the spread in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

The SF 49ers have been universally accepted as an NFC favorite.  The narrative is as follows.  The 49ers should have won last year but freak injuries to their reincarnation of Tom Brady and his backup in the NFC Championship Game snatched away their hard fought glory.  The 49ers are LOADED.  They are finally going to get over the top. Brock Purdy is back, and all is well once again as the 49ers will march triumphantly crushing all their foes.  Allow me to offer a counter narrative...  

Brock Purdy was drafted last in the 2022 NFL Draft because his physical limitations suggest he is a career backup.  He is just 9 months past reconstructive elbow surgery and hasn't played a down of preseason football.  We have no idea of his physical status.  QBs that don't play in the preseason lead offenses that only score 17 points per game in their first start.  Making matters worse for the 49ers is that they play a Pittsburgh defense which is regarded as elite.  This elite defense will pressure the QB mercilessly to test his physical limits.  Pittsburgh is a 2.5 point underdog at home.  Mike Tomlin is 16-4-2 against the spread as a home underdog.  He's had all offseason to think about how to blitz Purdy and maybe force SF to trot out sad sack backup Sam Darnold.  Pittsburgh +2.5

Home underdogs in Week 1 playing divisional opponents cover two thirds of the time.  QBs that don't play in the preseason perform poorly.  This scenario fits the Browns v Bengals game.  Look, I know what you are thinking.  The Browns haven't won a home opener since Otto Graham, back in the days when Kid Leo ruled the airwaves.  Halle's was where you did your back to school shopping, and Red Barn was where you got a good cheap burger.  Those were the days when Bingo Smith led to Cavs to victory in the Richfield Coliseum and Dorthy Fuldheim gave you the news about how Elliot Ness figured out how Sam Sheppard killed his wife.  It wasn't a one armed intruder that played keyboards in the Michael Stanley Band that looked like Irish Danny Greene or some shit like that.  I know.  The Browns will crush your dreams.  But hear me out.  Joe Burrow hasn't even practiced since that mysterious "calf strain" six weeks ago.  Dude just did basic drills a couple days ago.  He has to be rusty and probably hoping his Achilles doesn't blow.  It's too much uncertainty on that side.  Against my better judgement, I'm taking the Browns.  Look, if it doesn't make you nervous, it's probably a bad bet.  Cleveland +2.5       

Looking at the "QBs that haven't played preseason and are in new systems", just like the Lions team total Under 24 (winner!) from TH Night, I'm getting on Baltimore team total under 26.5, Arizona team total under 14.5 and Chargers team total under 27.5.  In Baltimore the offense is suddenly a "Lamar is a passing QB" shift as if there hasn't been four years to do this prior.  Like, if this is a surefire way to go, what's been the holdup until now?  And we aren't going to test drive this before Week 1?  Meanwhile in Arizona the Cards decided to trade for Josh Dobbs a week ago after cutting Colt McCoy who had been taking all their first team snaps.  The underwhelming Dobbs can't even know the names of his fellow players much less their route running tendencies. I'm just praying Washington doesn't give me a backbreaking turnover to give points away here.  The Chargers one is interesting.  The Public must see this game as an offensive shootout, but I keep hearing Xs and Os guys talking about how committed to the run both of this teams want to be.  I think that game is an under, but I'm playing the percentages and taking the "new system no practice" side.   History suggests two of the three of these will hit.

Current Record:  0-0