Nurse the Hate: Basset Update and Surefire NFL Totals Winners

 

In an unexpected twist in looking for a big male basset hound puppy, I have committed to also getting a young female basset.  The basset does better in a pair in my experience, at least my last two did, so I suppose I am trying to recreate that magic.  An argument can be made that in addition to greatly overestimating my own ability at training a dog, I have now wildly overstepped and thrown my household into complete chaos by doubling down.  There is not much that demands more attention than a puppy, and by doubling that to two puppies, I have willfully made my life a living hell.  That is fair.  However, the die has been cast and we are moving ahead.  The house is an ideal basset setup, so I have misguided confidence that it will come together somehow.  

One of the dogs is located about two hours outside of Nashville.  I have a vision of driving that dog back after the upcoming Hillbilly Casino gig in September.  Who doesn't want to enjoy a 9 hour drive with a 10 week old dog barfing and puking the whole drive back?  Sugar has a long history of seeing dogs walking with their owners down the street and exclaiming "A dog in distress!  We need to help that dog!  Get it in the van!".  As the dog is generally happily walking with their owners, this isn't necessarily "dog rescue" so much as "pet kidnapping" that she is suggesting.  Still, her enthusiasm is there.  I could see conning her into being barfed on for a half day, but Hector and Leo would see right through that little scheme.  Still, if Leo spends the drive like he normally does (smokes weed/15 minutes of shit talk/sleep/repeat) and Hector can stream a good college football game, I don't think they'll care if Sugar gets barfed on.  I need to figure out a sales pitch on it.

There are two things I am focused on right now.  1.  Gaining the logistical upper hand on the incoming bassets before they turn the tables on me.  2.  Wildly gambling on NFL win totals.  I have spent much of the last month zeroing in on the NFL.  When looking at the upcoming season, the most important things to focus on in regards to win totals bets is identifying narratives that The Rubes have bought into that you disagree with wholeheartedly.  I think there are a few storylines that bear closer scruntity to see if they present moneymaking opportunities.  One of these that I like is in New Orleans.

Somehow last year it was decided that Derek Carr is terrible and you cannot win with Derek Carr.  Carr was castoff in shame and signed in New Orleans where it is now assumed he will be their "bridge quarterback" as they rebuild after the go-for-broke Drew Brees era.  I would counter this logic with it was the shit heel Raiders that couldn't win, not Carr.  It was just a year ago Carr led the dysfunctional Raiders into a playoff appearance and road loss to the eventual Super Bowl Bengals.  No shame there.  The Saints opened at 9 and are now sitting at 9.5.  I got on them at 9, but I'd give them a hard look at 9.5 wins.  Have you seen that schedule?  They went 7-10 with Andy Dalton last year, now a clear upgrade to Carr with Jameis Winston as a backup QB.  This year they have a third place schedule and manage to somehow not play a Top 10 QB (maybe Trevor Lawrence) all season.  They get to play Baker Mayfield/Bucs, Ridder/Falcons, Young/Panthers twice.  Titans/Texans/Bears/Colts/Rams once.  They are favored right now in 15 of their 17 games.  I like their chances of winning a soft NFC South.  Saints OVER.

For some reason there is a bunch of enthusiasm around Justin Fields.  I'm not sure why.  He's a great running QB that has not demonstrated that he can throw the ball in an NFL offense. While the Bears added some flashy offensive playmakers, they did nothing on defense and four of their five o-linemen are already hurt.  Chicago Bears fans want to believe.  They get duped every year.  Every single year they dump money onto their team and inflate the market.  Somehow the Bears are at 7.5 wins.  This team won three games last year.  They are going to improve by 5 games because they signed DJ Moore?  There is NO WAY the Bears are going 8-9 simply because they don't have a viable NFL quarterback.  Fields was 32nd in completion percentage, 49th in ypg, and took a league leading 55 sacks.  He runs extremely well and thus is a big time fantasy football guy, thus gets overrated in REAL football.  The Bears UNDER 7.5 wins.

So the Texans went 3-13-1, drafted high (again), and brought in yet another coach.  Their wins included the injury depleted Titans with Malik Willis, a tanking Colts in week 17, and one of those weird any-given-Sunday wins over the Jags.  They could have gone 1-15-1 and it would have been legit.  The Texans win total this season is 6.5.  I don't see it.  So, they are going to pick up 4 wins over last year because they're starting CJ Stroud?  Stroud has looked awful in the preseason, playing under center after all his previous experience was out of the shotgun.  He's going to look fucking terrible all September.  I feel bad for that guy already.  This Texans team looks like a team that is another year away from transitioning from "shitty" to "sorta shitty".   Somebody has to be one of the five worst teams of the league, so Arizona/Tampa needs company.  Texans UNDER 6.5 wins.