Nurse the Hate: Super Bowl At The End Of Days

 

I was at a seminar in Germany a couple weeks ago, so I missed gambling on the divisional round and conference championship rounds of the NFL Playoffs.  They have these gross sports betting parlors over there with names like "SportBet" or "BetTek" that sort of look like those old New York OTB shit holes.  I will admit I was interested in having the experience of wandering into one to see if I could successfully find out if A) they had NFL lines available and then B) placing a bet on the Eagles to beat Washington with tangible language barriers in both directions.  My fear would be that I would have left with a Bielefeld -.5 goals over SV Sandhausen frantically trying to find a German streaming service for 3.Liga matches.  "Ich bin Hans Blinker und wir haben heute ein tolles Match für euch in der SchücoArena!" 

It's sort of a drag to be in Germany right now at a professional event.  When issues of trade come up, every person bristles when the United States is the subject and you can feel the eyes on you.  Granted, we have managed to flip the country in the last three weeks into a chaotic pay-to-play oligarchy run by bar napkin strategists that have provided no sense that they have an idea of where they are going or how to get there, so I am on board with the anti-Americanism.  At one point I told people I was Canadian because I didn't want the hassle or embarrassment of admitting I was American.  Pro tip, if you say you are Canadian, tell people you are from Hamilton.  NO ONE says they're from Hamilton so you'll never be fact checked.

I felt sheepish about being American when I traveled out of the country into the gear up for the clearly ginned up and idiotic war with Iraq, but it was more of a "anyone that is intelligent is on the same page, we don't like it either" thing.  American now is essentially an indefensibly stupid and dangerous country filled with people that don't really want to understand the world or embrace reality.  Living in the United States now is like when I lived in a crappy apartment building where I knew I wasn't on the same page as everyone else that lived there, so I just basically used it to watch TV, cook meals, and leave as often as I could.  It's not great when you have to brace yourself to peek at the headlines and see what new terrible thing the various idiots now in charge have done.  I think in the past with regimes I didn't agree with there was a sense that they thought they were fixing problems, whereas with this I see it as the richest people in the world deliberately fucking over poor people so they can somehow be even richer than "richest".  

I had read a book last year called "Travellers In The Third Reich" which is a collection of writing, diary entries and journals of people that visited Germany after the Nazis ascended into power until 1939 when you might have heard things took a turn that dampened tourism.  The similarities between the United States of today and Germany of 1934 are startling.  Spoiler alert, it didn't turn out well for Germany at the end of that run and I don't suspect it will here either.  The same people that jumped on board "the party" for personal gain in the 1930s look a lot like the corporate chameleons rushing in to pay tribute to The Mad King in 2025.  The great news is nobody reads or learns from the past, so we'll all go on this ride together.  Hey, the good news is there is still one more football game to offer a distraction (though the NFL has already removed the "End Racism" messaging in a nod to our apparent new official governmental embracement of pro-racism).  At least we don't have to pretend the players aren't exploited any longer, so there's that.

As I look at this game, I feel the way most fans seem to feel.  Eh.  I'm not sure why I feel that way.  The worm has turned on Kansas City as their continued success has led to an inevitable public backlash.  I got two guys on a text chain that wholeheartedly believe they NFL is manufacturing wins for KC with a coordinated plan using the officials.  When everything around you is a conspiracy theory, I guess it makes sense.  I think the bottom line is with Kansas City is that they have a really good defense, especially in the middle front, and a QB that has an uncanny ability to make plays late.  

I don't want to bet against Mahomes.  All that guy does is win.  But, let's look at things rationally for a second.  Two years ago the Eagles weren't as good as they are now.  They've got a better D line, better receivers and the best running back in football.  Kansas City is clearly not as good.  They have less explosive offensive skill players, less stalwart offensive line, and reduced statistical track record.  So if the line was Philadelphia -1.5 two years ago and now they're even better while KC is worse, why is Philadelphia +1.5 now?  Since week 6, Philadelphia has the #1 defense and #4 offense.  It's clearly the better team.  Am I concerned about Reid outcoaching Siriani?  Yes.  Am I concerned about The Witch?  Also, yes.  Still, I am going to float a small Philadelphia +1.5 bet out there.   

A couple prop bets I like are "shortest touchdown less than 1.5 yards -140".  You've got Tush Push on a run heavy team, so I like that scenario.  In 7 of the last 9 Super Bowls there has been a one yard TD.  Why not this one too?  It's pretty chalky, but with all the pass interference calls in the end zones these days, a first and goal from the one is almost assured.

I'm taking a look at "Saquan Barkley longest run less than 25.5 yards".  Kansas City has only given up six runs of over 25 yards this season.  Of those, three of them were by quarterbacks on broken plays.  The Public likes betting over on totals and props.  I am going to see if this nudges up to 27 or so and fire on it.

Mahomes doesn't run the ball like people perceive that he does, so his total rushing attempts under 6.5 is interesting, but the problem there is if he does a few kneel downs to end a game.  I am also thinking about doing an UNDER on the first half.  These teams tend to come out tight in Super Bowls, and people play conservatively until they feel the ship under their feet.  I'd go UNDER on the game, but the issue with that is if one team runs away with it they just keep their foot on the gas.  It feels like a defensive game, and the Eagles like to run, so that leans under.  I'll drop a little amendment into this column if I decide to go there.

Current Record:  40-29-1