Thanksgiving Galaxy of Wagers

 

I have always been "blessed" at not having enormous family functions to attend on Thanksgiving.  As a kid, my extended family lived too far away in New York and Chicago from our inconvenient outpost of Erie PA for us to travel to in any scenario that wasn't a Bataan Death March.  Do you want to toss a couple kids into an Allegheny Airlines flight with a transfer in Pittsburgh?  How about seven hours in a VW Beetle with two boys fighting over the dividing line of their side of the car?  My parents didn't and I don't harbor any grudges on that.  Besides the obvious logistical issues, I think one of the primary reasons we never got together was a great generational ignorance of culinary art.  No one in my parent's generation could cook worth a shit.  Right up and down the line, the best cooks in the family (arguably my mother?) would have received a "slightly below average" grade.  If you were looking for a barely seasoned turkey, lumpy mashed potatoes, and half assed side dishes, we could deliver.  The first time I had dinner at a second generation Italian family's house, my head almost exploded.  I didn't know that "seasoning" existed prior to that.

I have had a couple of big Thanksgivings over the years when someone would gamely try to assemble the troops.  I think because everyone had been conditioned by years of low key Thanksgiving, it just never took.  When I hear the office small talk that gets launched when someone makes the mistake of asking about a co-worker's Thanksgiving plans I often audibly let out a "ugghhhhhhh" noise.  "Well Elizabeth got in last night and James thought he could catch the early flight from Midway but he wasn't even able to get on standby, so he won't be in until late tonight.  You know James!  So Susan and I are getting up at 345a to get started on the prep, and I know Mike and the boys are going to do the Turkey Trot... No!  Not the one downtown!  We have one in the town square, but anyway..."  

I guess we've tried.  There was the time Melissa and I flew out to visit The Krustys in Las Vegas during the tail end of The Covid Era.  The plan was pretty good.  We had rented out a big Air BNB and the idea was we would cook at the house and watch football with a stack of ill-advised tickets from a sportsbook in front of us.  We got there on Wednesday late afternoon.  Thanksgiving morning Ken had covid, they had left the condo, and we had essentially flown across North America to sit in a strange house by ourselves to enjoy a Uber Eats Thanksgiving.  

Once again Thanksgiving has returned to its roots, its core essence.  Today will be a low key day focused on the things that you can count on, football gambling and high quality wine.  Tradition must be served, and for me that is The Galaxy of Wagers.  I like to have at least some action on everything that is going off today.  Even better is to have unrelated things intertwined.  I have teasers cutting across NFL/NCAA Football/NCAA Basketball with teams that I know almost nothing about.  I've even got a ton of action on Europa futbol clubs I didn't know existed two days ago.  The absolute most important thing is to create so many moving parts that you look at the scoreboard and have to question "Is this good for me?'.  Right around lunchtime I will be sweating out a Porto/Bilbao Athletic Club parlay while you are considering if you are going to argue with your politically diametrically opposite aligned Uncle.  (Wait until dinner.  It's best there.)  

Allow me to present to you a few ABSOLUTE LOCKS for today's action.  You're welcome.

There has been an avalanche of "smart" money on the Bears over the Lions today.  I can't make any sense of it.  The Bears have lost five straight, two in heartbreaking fashion.  They were double digit underdogs to the Lions, universally regarded as the best team in the NFL right now.  I could type out a stack of trends that show double digit favorites on Thanksgiving (a short week) win 67% of the time.  The idea is that with reduced time to plan it becomes which team has the better players.  That team is the Lions.  The fact that the Lions just keep the foot down on the gas pedal makes me even more comfortable with taking them.  Dan Campbell has the best ATS record of any coach in the NFL.  This is a fast Lions team on turf vs a Bears team that plays half their games on that weird grass at Soldier Field.  Favorites overwhelmingly cover on Thanksgiving.  It all points to the Lions here.  I got down yesterday on the Detroit -9.  

I'll get something going on that absolute piece of shit Giants v Cowboys game in the 4p slot, but it's a weird situation.  The Giants might start an injured Tommy Devito, their third string undrafted QB as opposed to the backup Drew Lock that they paid $5M to be on the roster.  If Devito starts, I'm on Dallas despite Cooper Rush being absolutely terrible.  It's odd that the clearly best QB on either rosters is the one that is questionable to start.  If Lock starts I'll probably play the Giants if the number is big enough, but it's not a case of "taking off the rubber band", but more "sprinkling a little" on the Giants.  If Devito starts, I'm in on Dallas.  If the Giants lose this game in embarrassing fashion, the bloodbath that will occur in New York and national media is going to be uncomfortable to watch.  What a crappy game.

My understanding is that it is going to be cold in Green Bay tonight.  A nice crisp 25 degree night in Wisconsin is not what a team from South Florida is looking for over the holiday.  Miami has been talking shit about how their playoff game last year in freezing Kansas City will have them ready for Green Bay.  I don't know why that would be the case as they got smoked in KC.  People will be concerned about how Tua is 0-4 in this weather and admittedly hates the cold, but for me it's the fact that playing defense is that much tougher in cold weather.  Green Bay is kinda shitty, but a night game at home in crappy weather is a good spot for them.  Green Bay -3   

You want some Europa action?  How about that Memphis State v Tulane game?  There's no reason not to tie in some NCAA Football.  Oh, don't forget to bet against Aiden O'Connell who the Raiders have decided to toss in against the Chiefs on Black Friday.  Who wants a Bilboa Athletic Club/Detroit Lions/Green Bay/Memphis St +14.5 parlay?  Gimme a flier on Porto early!  I've been there and the people will come out hard for their club.  The plan is to have 16-20 active tickets with no clear idea of what happened until the dust settles as the New Mexico v Arizona St basketball game tips off at 1130p.  I'm ready.  I've got Cru Beaujolais and Premier Cru Burgundy and Champagne.  There is no stopping me.  

Current record:  21-21