Rainy Days and White Sox Got Me Down

 

I looked up how many "mostly sunny" days I have experienced since Thanksgiving.  Five.  In the last 83 days I have seen sun on five (5) of them.  I had the misfortune of missing 4 sunny days in January when I went to Germany/Spain and somehow managed to walk around in the rain of Southern Spain.  They get six rainy days in January on average and I hit all of 'em.  I woke up today and looked out the window at the sleet falling into the icy brown puddles, doom scrolled the news, and thought "I've gotta get the fuck out of here.".   

I always have been dismissive of "snowbirds" that went to Florida for the winter.  I hate Florida.  I have a theory that Florida is the bottom of the orange juice carton that is the United States.  All the sludge that lives here eventually settles down there at the bottom, filtering down naturally to nestle into the Florida Keys to sell trinkets, crypto, doomed waterfront real estate and meth.  Yet, would I trade living in the embodiment of a Kafka novel here in NE Ohio to walk around with East Coast car dealers and plastic surgery disasters in Naples FL?  You're goddamn right I would.  I'm starting to think those snowbird rubes figured it out.

With my embracing a short term position over the next few months as a student/privatier, I really should rent out some sort of beachfront condo and argue with the Homeowner's Association about my basset hounds inappropriately shitting in the landscaping.  Yet, as we're halfway through February maybe I can just tough this thing out.  I don't know how much longer I can go.  On the extended forecast, the first day that reaches the incredibly low bar of "mostly cloudy" is February 27th.  That's two fucking weeks.  If the sun doesn't peek though the clouds for a few days, I'm threatening of heading over to the Southern Hemisphere for a jaunt.  Maybe Mendoza or Capetown.  Just completely overreact to the whole thing.  I'll get fueled up on overextracted boozy malbec and grilled meat.  It's got to be better than sitting here in the cold wet wondering where my NFL football went.  As of now I've been trying to fill the void left by not having football with doing deep dives on MLB win totals.  It's not much, but it's all I've got.   

Each year I have embraced a team that I think has been undervalued by the Vegas books.  Last year Krusty and I flew in the face of conventional wisdom and made bank by getting behind the Oakland A's and their meager 63 win total.  Winner.  And now I have two A's caps and an A's sweatshirt I picked up in an almost empty Oakland Coliseum as I watched the A's get pummeled by the almost equally shitty Washington Nationals.  It was a long summer watching the A's, but if I find a shitty team that I think is undervalued, I'm doing it again.  I'd hit the A's again, but with a win total of 70.5, it's a bit rich for my blood.

Immediately I looked at the worst team, the Chicago White Sox.  The People tend to overreact on teams at either end of the spectrum.  The Public thinks the Dodgers will never lose (they might not) and the White Sox will never win.  It's human nature of assuming past results guarantee future performance.  This is baseball.  It's a game that is built on failure.  Great hitters make an out on 70% of their at bats.  Great teams lose about 40% of the time.  So how about the White Sox OVER 52.5?

I took a long hard look at the White Sox.  Here's my analysis.  "Shiver me timbers".  The White Sox won 41 games last year, a stunning 25% winning percentage.  They lost 21 in a row.  At one point they'd lost 82 of their first 111 games.  I can go on, but you get the idea.  They were appallingly bad.  So with a total of 52.5, why are the going to win 12 more games this year?  Well... I don't know...  They traded away their only B grade or above player and only legit starter to the Red Sox for four prospects, three of which immediately became their top prospects in the organization.  Those guys are still a couple years away though.  Looking at the team, they've got nuthin'.

Let me take you around the horn...  There are two catchers that suck and are holding the place for the two minor league prospects that aren't ready yet.  Andrew Vaughn is at first, their best hitter with a .270 average and 17 HRs.  There's a 30 year old journeyman utility guy starting at second on his fourth team in five years, declining numbers over the last four years.  The shortstop is a kid they thought would take the position over, but looks overmatched.  They have no clue at third, right now it's a platoon.  The left fielder is Andrew Benintendi, a 30 year old dude that hit .225 with 20 HRs, a big time prospect at one time looking at his last shot as an everyday player.  Luis Robert is in center right now.  He sorta sucks and they're going to trade him if anyone bites.  Right field is what can be called "a gaping hole" unless you think 34 year old Mike Tauchman, a .241 career hitter with no power, is the answer there.  This isn't even a young roster with upside.  Maybe the kid at short comes around?  Maybe somebody emerges at third?  There's just not much there.  How do they get 12 more wins?  The baseball Gods let them regress to the mean?

The starting pitching is horrible.  Jonathon Cannon is your #1, a guy that would be a #4 almost anywhere else in baseball.  He's going to go 3-14 if he has to pitch against legit #1 starters all year.  33 year old Martin Perez is your #2.  This is his fourth team in four years.  I guess Davis Martin is the #3.  He's on his second year back from Tommy John.  He's 3-11 lifetime.  He might be the opening day starter.  Then you've got some bullshit battling to be the #4/5 starters.  It's not good.

So I've been reading all these baseball writers jumping on Chicago OVER 52.5 with the thought that shitty teams always hit rock bottom and improve.  It makes sense and there is some precedent with 6 of the last 8 teams that won less than 55 improving by a dozen games the next year.  OK... So what if last year wasn't rock bottom?  There was a quote I read from their GM that essentially said "I think we are going to win more games this year, but if we don't don't get mad at me.  We are ready to lose and lose big as we figure out who can play.".  I think these guys are committed to going 2012/2013 Astros on this thing and burn it to the ground.  I think that''s the model, not the 2021 Orioles.  The White Sox don't even have the prospects assembled at AAA to jump start the season with a flicker of hope.  I am going to sit here in the weeds and see if the degenerate gambling community talks themselves into the trend of awful teams improving YTY and can get that number to move up another couple clicks.  If so, I'm jumping on UNDER and rooting against this piece of shit organization backed by a large investment of snowbird dollars.  It's not time to buy yet, but let's keep an eye on it.  Let's get a place in Boca Raton.

     

Nurse the Hate: Super Bowl At The End Of Days

 

I was at a seminar in Germany a couple weeks ago, so I missed gambling on the divisional round and conference championship rounds of the NFL Playoffs.  They have these gross sports betting parlors over there with names like "SportBet" or "BetTek" that sort of look like those old New York OTB shit holes.  I will admit I was interested in having the experience of wandering into one to see if I could successfully find out if A) they had NFL lines available and then B) placing a bet on the Eagles to beat Washington with tangible language barriers in both directions.  My fear would be that I would have left with a Bielefeld -.5 goals over SV Sandhausen frantically trying to find a German streaming service for 3.Liga matches.  "Ich bin Hans Blinker und wir haben heute ein tolles Match für euch in der SchücoArena!" 

It's sort of a drag to be in Germany right now at a professional event.  When issues of trade come up, every person bristles when the United States is the subject and you can feel the eyes on you.  Granted, we have managed to flip the country in the last three weeks into a chaotic pay-to-play oligarchy run by bar napkin strategists that have provided no sense that they have an idea of where they are going or how to get there, so I am on board with the anti-Americanism.  At one point I told people I was Canadian because I didn't want the hassle or embarrassment of admitting I was American.  Pro tip, if you say you are Canadian, tell people you are from Hamilton.  NO ONE says they're from Hamilton so you'll never be fact checked.

I felt sheepish about being American when I traveled out of the country into the gear up for the clearly ginned up and idiotic war with Iraq, but it was more of a "anyone that is intelligent is on the same page, we don't like it either" thing.  American now is essentially an indefensibly stupid and dangerous country filled with people that don't really want to understand the world or embrace reality.  Living in the United States now is like when I lived in a crappy apartment building where I knew I wasn't on the same page as everyone else that lived there, so I just basically used it to watch TV, cook meals, and leave as often as I could.  It's not great when you have to brace yourself to peek at the headlines and see what new terrible thing the various idiots now in charge have done.  I think in the past with regimes I didn't agree with there was a sense that they thought they were fixing problems, whereas with this I see it as the richest people in the world deliberately fucking over poor people so they can somehow be even richer than "richest".  

I had read a book last year called "Travellers In The Third Reich" which is a collection of writing, diary entries and journals of people that visited Germany after the Nazis ascended into power until 1939 when you might have heard things took a turn that dampened tourism.  The similarities between the United States of today and Germany of 1934 are startling.  Spoiler alert, it didn't turn out well for Germany at the end of that run and I don't suspect it will here either.  The same people that jumped on board "the party" for personal gain in the 1930s look a lot like the corporate chameleons rushing in to pay tribute to The Mad King in 2025.  The great news is nobody reads or learns from the past, so we'll all go on this ride together.  Hey, the good news is there is still one more football game to offer a distraction (though the NFL has already removed the "End Racism" messaging in a nod to our apparent new official governmental embracement of pro-racism).  At least we don't have to pretend the players aren't exploited any longer, so there's that.

As I look at this game, I feel the way most fans seem to feel.  Eh.  I'm not sure why I feel that way.  The worm has turned on Kansas City as their continued success has led to an inevitable public backlash.  I got two guys on a text chain that wholeheartedly believe they NFL is manufacturing wins for KC with a coordinated plan using the officials.  When everything around you is a conspiracy theory, I guess it makes sense.  I think the bottom line is with Kansas City is that they have a really good defense, especially in the middle front, and a QB that has an uncanny ability to make plays late.  

I don't want to bet against Mahomes.  All that guy does is win.  But, let's look at things rationally for a second.  Two years ago the Eagles weren't as good as they are now.  They've got a better D line, better receivers and the best running back in football.  Kansas City is clearly not as good.  They have less explosive offensive skill players, less stalwart offensive line, and reduced statistical track record.  So if the line was Philadelphia -1.5 two years ago and now they're even better while KC is worse, why is Philadelphia +1.5 now?  Since week 6, Philadelphia has the #1 defense and #4 offense.  It's clearly the better team.  Am I concerned about Reid outcoaching Siriani?  Yes.  Am I concerned about The Witch?  Also, yes.  Still, I am going to float a small Philadelphia +1.5 bet out there.   

A couple prop bets I like are "shortest touchdown less than 1.5 yards -140".  You've got Tush Push on a run heavy team, so I like that scenario.  In 7 of the last 9 Super Bowls there has been a one yard TD.  Why not this one too?  It's pretty chalky, but with all the pass interference calls in the end zones these days, a first and goal from the one is almost assured.

I'm taking a look at "Saquan Barkley longest run less than 25.5 yards".  Kansas City has only given up six runs of over 25 yards this season.  Of those, three of them were by quarterbacks on broken plays.  The Public likes betting over on totals and props.  I am going to see if this nudges up to 27 or so and fire on it.

Mahomes doesn't run the ball like people perceive that he does, so his total rushing attempts under 6.5 is interesting, but the problem there is if he does a few kneel downs to end a game.  I am also thinking about doing an UNDER on the first half.  These teams tend to come out tight in Super Bowls, and people play conservatively until they feel the ship under their feet.  I'd go UNDER on the game, but the issue with that is if one team runs away with it they just keep their foot on the gas.  It feels like a defensive game, and the Eagles like to run, so that leans under.  I'll drop a little amendment into this column if I decide to go there.

Current Record:  40-29-1 

2025 and Wild Card Weekend

 

I quit my job last week after 18 years.  It was sort of like getting out of an abusive relationship where your partner was always telling you how much you needed them and no one could ever love you as they hit you with a stick.  "You make me sick."  Wack.  "You are worthless."  Wack.  "Why are you making me hit you?"  Wack.  As the sinking ship of local broadcast television goes down, I will not be aboard to try to desperately cling to a lifeboat.  Au revoir.  I have de-boarded to try to pass this Master of Wine exam in June (it's almost impossible) and rely on matters of certainty to provide ample cash flow.  I would like to thank Ohio for legalizing sports gambling and Deshaun Watson for allowing me to easily identify his indifference to playing football as an example of such.  That wise investment in Watson's lack of results has helped give me the freedom to do things I want to do as opposed to being shackled to the poor decision making of others.  2025 is shaping up to be MUCH better than 2024.      

"Wild Card Weekend" is back after last year inexplicably being named "Super Wild Card Weekend" as if adding the word "Super" made it somehow even better.  The Wild Card round is always where the teams that aren't quite that good get exposed.  I'm looking at you 2023 Cleveland Browns.  There are six games.  Two will be really good fight-to-the-death games and the other ones tend to be decided very quickly.  You ever get settled in for a game, chili pot bubbling away, and within two minutes it's obvious who is going to win?  I think that game might be the Buffalo v Denver game.

I see the AFC coming down to some variation of Buffalo v Kansas City v Baltimore.  Denver isn't that good.  Every year there is a team on the rise that sneaks into the playoffs, but isn't quite there yet.  Looking at Denver's last month you have them beating the Chiefs second string, losing to Cincinnati, losing to the Chargers, and beating the Browns at home by one score.  Denver went 1-5 versus Playoff teams.  They beat shitty teams but weren't quite good enough to beat the elite in the league.  That's a big ask for them to go into Buffalo and beat the Bills with a rookie QB making his first playoff start. Buffalo -8.5.  Before the Bills second string losing last week, they were 10-1 in their last 11.  The Bills are good and they'll advance.   

I am getting on Minnesota.  Look, that loss last week does have me consider if The Real Sam Darnold is back.  The Lions, who have no defense to speak of, absolutely destroyed Darnold and his confidence in a real asskicking in what might have been the biggest game of Darnold's life.  As stupid as it sounds, this week against the Rams is actually a lower profile game.  I am assuming this game gets played in Phoenix which won't impact Minnesota at all.  All those NFC North teams only lost to each other.  That's the cream of the crop in the NFC.  It's them and Philly with a big drop after that.  You're telling me that the Rams, distracted all week because THEIR CITY IS ON FIRE, are going to be focused on making a surprise road trip and beating a superior team?  The Vikings don't give a shit where their plane lands.  All they know is the team they're playing isn't as good as the Lions.   Minnesota -2.5 

I heard some crazy stats about teams meeting for a third time where their last game was three weeks or less in the past are 14-2 to the over.  Playing Baltimore to go over is always sound advice.  The only concern is if the Pittsburgh offense shows up.  Russell Wilson is looking exceedingly more like the guy the Broncos dumped and George Pickens seems to be morphing into the classic Pittsburgh mentally deranged diva that gets dumped by the team and soon forgotten.  How many of those guys have they had?  Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burriss, Antonio Brown, Dontae Johnson, Claypool...  It's crazy.  I'll tell you this.  I'd never buy a used car from Mike Tomlin.  The guy knows when to get out of a bad vehicle.  I think Pittsburgh shows more than they did last game, but Lamar is too much to deal with for anyone this year.  Baltimore/Pittsburgh OVER 44.

Quick update.  I hit both of my season win total bets (KC over 11.5/New England under 4.5).  I have very quietly turned things around late this season.  Let's see if I can keep it going.  These playoff lines are dialed in tight.   

Current Record:  38-28-1

Tanking and NFL Final Week Saturday

 

The Cleveland Browns are intentionally tanking.  I know it.  Las Vegas knows it.  The Browns themselves know it.  The line today versus Baltimore is an astounding 20 points.  Even when the Browns went 0-16, they were never an underdog of 20 points.  Quick reminder, this is a team that was talking Playoffs/Super Bowl contention in August.  Yikes.  Things have not gone well.

When you decide to run Bailey Zappe out to start a game after being on your roster for a couple weeks, it tells you one thing.  They are not trying to win.  This is a live tryout to see if they want to bring him in to camp next year as a potential backup or #3.  While it is almost inconceivable that the Ravens lose this game, 20 points is a mind bending number to give an underdog.  Gun to head, I'm taking the Ravens, but I think there's a better way to get at this...

The crux of this game is not only will the Browns be facing a motivated superior team on the road trying to win the conference.  The Browns are approaching this like a preseason game.  In the Browns preseason games, they do not try to win, unlike the Ravens who approach every game like it's the AFC Championship.  Stefanski is always trying to "clean things up".  Ken Dorsey the OC is a goner.  Even if he wanted to call a high variance game and reach deep into the playbook, he can't.  The QB doesn't know all the plays.  I would expect a vanilla gameplan with forced targets to Jeudy and lots and lots and lots of passes to the Tight Ends.  The Browns want to lose and will call a game that appears to be intended to move the ball, but really isn't.  How do you lose?  Don't score.  Browns under 14.5 is what I'm doing, but the under 41.5 isn't bad either if you think the Browns defense plays their hearts out.     

If I win that early game, and the Ravens win easily I will take a look at betting Pittsburgh.  The Public will rush in to bet on Cincinnati if Baltimore wins with the thinking that Pittsburgh will have nothing to play for in that scenario.  I disagree and think that regardless Mike Tomlin is not going to want to roll into the playoffs on a four game losing streak.  I think Pittsburgh plays hard and this turns into a typical AFC North street fight.  Looking to place at Pittsburgh +3.5 or higher... 

Current Record:  34-28-1

The Death of Traditional Media and Sat NFL Week 17

 

I have worked in media for almost all of my adult life.  I remember when I knew that radio was over as a major media.  I was driving on I-271 and every single car I passed for 20 minutes had a woman talking into her mobile phone.  People listened to radio primarily on their commutes, and with the choice of listening to a "drive time double shot" of The Eagles or calling their dingbat friend Kaylee, the majority of Cleveland area commuters chose Kaylee.  Frankly, Kaylee at least had new stories and all commercial radio stations just continued to flog you with "Tequila Sunrise", so the choice was fairly easy.

As streaming emerged, radio refused to change.   I worked at the classic rock radio station in town from 1993-1998 and then again in something like 2003-2006.  Nothing had changed except maybe some window dressing.  The same 200 or so songs are presented in essentially the same way over and over and over and over.  How no one in that medium said, "Hey, every single person walks around with a device on them that allows access to every song ever recorded.  Maybe our stale presentation of "Aqualung" and "Jukebox Hero" with 15 ads an hour isn't going to cut it?".  Nope.  It's easier to pretend that the problem isn't real and keep doing the same shit you always did hoping it would all work out.  There is a comfort in making your own bubble.

I'm in TV now, and it is EXACTLY the same thing.  These local broadcast TV affiliates had a great little racket going.  These fucking things printed money like you can't believe.  If you wanted to watch TV, they were the only game in town with federal regulations preventing Leo and I from erecting a broadcast tower in his backyard and start doing newscasts.  Side note, I always felt an amazing TV show would have been to have Leo sitting at a news desk while a host asked him to explain current events.  "What I Think The News Is-with Leo P. Love".  Would there have been massive misinformation broadcast?  Yes.  Would it have been good TV?  Also, yes.  What do you want to watch?  Some vanilla local newscast talking about whatever shit the city water department did, or Leo struggling to remember what he thought he heard about some shooting downtown?  I'm telling you, it's ratings gold.

Anyway, these TV stations were so smug because they controlled almost all access to video advertising.  If you wanted to reach a large audience, all you had to do was run a schedule on any of the four local network affiliates and it would deliver results.  It didn't really even matter which one.  There were five ways of getting access to TV viewers, the four affiliates and the cable TV company.  That was it.  These folks swaggered around like they were geniuses and really all they had going from them was no competition.  If you wanted to reach all the people in town, THEY were the only on ramp.

With the unbelievably swift rise of streaming, suddenly everyone has a TV show.  Shit, you don't really need a show.  People under the age of 35 have such a lack of attention span thanks to their upbringing, they just watch snippets of video.  So how did all these great minds in broadcast TV respond?  Just like radio.  Keep doing the same shit you've always done and tell yourself how kick ass you are despite all evidence to the contrary.  Whereas just a few years ago these four stations were the only access point for big TV audiences, now EVERYONE can sell you TV of some kind.  

Local broadcast TV is OVER and most of the people working in it don't even know it.  They are clinging to outdated ideas in a desperate attempt to ignore reality.  "Hey, we are the #2 morning news!".  Big deal Bro.  Nobody is watching that shit.  If you are the #2 local newscast, that generally means 98.5% of the area is not watching you.  The world changed and local TV didn't change with it.  To be inside it and see the willing suspension of disbelief is really something.   There used to be four daily newspapers in Cleveland.  Those are gone.  There used to be fierce competition between multiple radio morning shows, all of which were big local celebrities.  Now I can't name three morning local DJs and I worked in radio for 16 years.  Local affiliate news teams really used to be like Ron Burgundy.  WEWS-TV owned a helicopter and a fucking boat for some reason.  I suggest that if that boat is still afloat out there, that any current station employee not tied to revenue jump in for safety's sake.  The water is about the get very choppy for you friend.

The NFL games were on Netflix on Christmas.  That would have been UNTHINKABLE three years ago.  24 million people watched these games on Netflix this year compared to a combined 28 million last year on CBS/Fox/ABC.  That's just US viewership too.  The global numbers aren't in yet.  This points out that fans will find the games regardless of where they are made available.  The downside for traditional TV?  Apple and Amazon and Netflix are now in your game, they have deeper pockets, they know your consumer data, and they can close the consumer loop by not only advertising a product but provide the opportunity to buy it with one click of a button.  Uh-oh.  We better get that "What I Think The News Is with Leo P. Love" show active at the old TV station...  But until then, I'll just follow the game wherever they go.

Today's games are on the NFL Network.  I assume I have that somewhere on my confusing web of TV packages.  What a blessing.  The holidays really do provide a horn of plenty, don't they?  It's am embarrassment of riches to be able to press a button and watch the LA Chargers and NE Patriots in an almost meaningless game.  I suppose the Chargers really need this win to get into the Playoffs (where I assume they will be eliminated by one of the four legit AFC teams).  For whatever reason I have been bombarded with Drake Maye propaganda this week.  The worm has turned on Caleb Williams.  Michael Pennix was news last week.  This week it's all about how great Drake Maye is.  Sure, his stats are pretty good but the Patriots have still lost 6 of their last 7.  They stink.  I think the Chargers win an ugly game where they take an early lead and just grind in classic Harbaugh fashion.  Weird stat for ya.  Chargers have the best first half defense in the NFL.  I'm on Chargers -3 First Half.  I have a fear of a NE backdoor cover on this game.       

I am out of the Arizona Cardinals business.  They looked like they might win the NFC West.  I bet on them a few times, and they've lost 4 of their last 5.  Fuck these guys.  Kyler Murray fades down the stretch, and he's doing it again.  The Rams are somehow 8-2 in their last 10 games.  You get the better QB, the better coach, the team trending in the right direction, and the favorite in a time where favorites are winning 75% of the time.  The Cardinals tend to keep it close but make a backbreaking mistake late in games.  LA Rams moneyline.

Current Record:  32-28-1

Christmas 1971 and Holiday NFL

 

Even as a young kid, I was interested in rock music.  I believe the first LP in my collection was the "Woodstock 2 soundtrack" on a Christmas morning as a five year old.  This was given to me by my parents.  Now, the first thing you might think is "Why would Greg's parents think that a five year old boy would like obscure live Jimi Hendrix jams, CSNY and Melanie on a double LP?".  This is a very valid question.  Even now, with God knows how many records, CDs and sound files I have in my possession, I have never heard Jimi Hendrix's "Get My Heart Back Together" or Mountain's "Blood of the Sun" in any other context except on this record via my shitty blue plastic record player that was in my room.

In retrospect, it's sweet that my parents decided to fed into my interest in rock music.  My parents had no knowledge or interest in rock.  They somehow threaded the needle of the 1960s by graduating college in 1962 and had me before the Beatles blew up past being a teen sensation.  When you watch documentaries on the late 60s, it's all protest marches, free love and groovy outdoor music festivals.  My parents would have been pushing a baby carriage, totally into the "Hello Dolly" and "Fiddler On The Roof" soundtracks and driving my father's company car station wagon.  They missed all of it.  All that crazy 60s stuff was just something on TV news for them.  Their lack of a grasp on the Beatles catalogue always blew my mind.  They knew "Hey Jude" and "Eleanor Rigby" and that was about the extent of it.  So how in 1971 was one of them at a department store record section and thinking, "I'll bet that kid of ours would really dig that "Woodstock Boogie" jam from Canned Heat on Side 4."?

My theory is that it was a moment of weakness where "We should feed into his interest" was met with "I don't know anything about rock, but I did hear that this Woodstock thing was a big deal".   What is perplexing is why they got the weird outtake laden "Woodstock 2" release as opposed to the absolutely classic "Woodstock-Music From The Original Soundtrack' LP.  I am chalking it up to having no awareness of the genre or, speaking frankly, a large price difference in Woodstock 2 over Woodstock at the register.  I mean, I was five, so it's not like I would have been aware of the Jimi Hendrix canon anyway, much less be able to grasp what the fuck was going on there.  I can say honestly, I tried to get into that record from Age 5-13, and it was only when I cracked the code on Jefferson Airplane on Side 2 as a 15 year old that I could wrap my arms around the rest of the record.

I don't think I ever properly thanked my parents for that Xmas present because I was a little fuck looking for his next toy, and I thought the record sucked until I was 15.  It's not when you get some distance from some of these presents that you can see the love that went into them.  That gift wasn't the record per se, it was supporting something I was interested in despite neither of them having an grasp of why anyone would be interested in that area, much less their little five year old son.  That indulgence is quite a nice gift, and probably one of the reasons I have spent most of my adult life writing stupid little songs and traveling around singing them.  Sigh.  I should have said something.

One thing I will say is this...  I like Baltimore today.  I am not a believer in the Houston Texans, and even less so without Tank Dell.  Stroud has regressed, and if the Texans can't get a running game going Stroud will look crappy in three-and-longs.  The Texans don't really have much to play for, and Baltimore has a lot riding on this game with needing a win to try and get the AFC North crown and home playoff games.  I got on it late, but I'm on Baltimore -6.

Current Record:  31-28-1         

   

Kafka Visits Zuckerberg and NFL Week 16

 

I had all my Meta accounts suspended because the Meta bots decided a joke I made about having to pay for Marvin's two stomach surgeries by becoming a narcotics dealer was me using the platform to sell drugs.  Facebook, which at this point serves almost exclusively as a platform for misinformation, scams, and identity theft, had decided that my attempt at sarcasm was the real problem.  Now, they may or may not be right about that.  However, what I would like to focus on is the hopeless task that awaits any normal person that gets their account disabled.

First, Meta has constructed a perfect loop of "customer service".  When you find out your account has been disabled they give you an opportunity to appeal the decision.  You aren't given a reason for the account being disabled in the first place, so this makes the appeal process VERY difficult.  It's a digital Kafka role playing game where you have to defend yourself for a crime that has not been identified.  When you send the appeal in, you get a screen which says "We'll let you know".  There is no back and forth or any email given.  They will get back to you... or not.

So after a few weeks I had not heard anything.  It wouldn't have mattered to me at all but the band's database is that Facebook page.  It became swiftly evident that it would be hard to let anyone know about our gigs, LPs being released, etc.  This was my motivation to solve the problem.  I will now save you or anyone you know a great deal of time by telling you how to get this done.  First, you have to be persistent.  The only way I could figure out how to interact with the company in a meaningful way was to get my Instagram account verified which would then access a "customer support" feature.  This cost me $15 but I figured it would be worth it.  As far as I can see, this is the one and only way to contact Meta.  They don't even have a phone number.  It's all a bunch of Indian dudes sitting at card tables responding to chat texts.

What I didn't count on was how infuriating the customer support chat is to use.  You first have to get past the bot chat feature.  If you manage to get past that (I did by opening three different reasons for needing to talk to someone), you will be asked through amazingly stupid questions that don't help anything.  Example:  What can I help you with today?  "I can't log in". OK, let's have you log in to see what the problem is.  "I can't log in."  You are not able to log in?  "No". Have you tried logging in with another device?  "yes".  Were you able to log in there?  "No.  I can't log in anywhere."  What is your url?  "I don't know.  I can't log in."  Can you log in to tell me your url?

It goes on like that for about 25 minutes for the first part of the chat regardless of how well you explain the problem in the initial contact.  Then if you have the right guy (it's always an Indian man that seems to be about 26 years old) he will maybe figure out what you are trying to accomplish and the hurdle you face in trying to do so.  It's important to note, many of these guys don't seem to have the ability to put 2+2 together.  It really seems like they're fucking with you.

On one of the chats I had a guy call to tell me to forget about trying to get my account back.  The account was gone.  When I asked to speak to his supervisor, he said he didn't have one.  "You don't have a boss?"  Yes, but I don't know who that is.  "So who instructs you on what to do?"  No one,  We get emails.  "From who?"  I don't know.  "So if I was General Motors and couldn't get into our account to buy a bunch of ads, who would I talk to?  "I don't know.  I'm sure there is somebody."

I finally got some action going when I started a chat saying I wanted to place a five figure advertising buy for the Whiskey Daredevils but couldn't log onto our band account.  Can someone help me log on so I can give you $10,000 in revenue?  THIS got some action.  Within a week I had a fellow who was very pleased with himself who called to tell me the account was active again and he had fixed everything.  Though it had taken 7 weeks, 9 online chats, 5 phone calls, and countless hours scouring the internet to figure out how to do it, I did it.  We now hope to be able to tell you when we are playing gigs again.  In today's world seven weeks is like a decade, so I hope you all remember who we are when that next post hits.

I wish I had spent that time on getting my account back focusing on the NFL.  I took a couple bad losses last week.  The good news is THIS WEEK is a great time to right the ship.  Why?  Because Old Reliable, aka The Cleveland Browns are doing their traditional late season move of starting a player that clearly has no business being a starting NFL player as the QB.  I guess they have this small hope that they get lucky and somehow have stumbled onto the next Tom Brady, but they always find out they have the current Cody Kessler.  I have no fucking idea why they are starting DTR this week as he has already shown that he can't start in the NFL.  Winston can get the ball downfield, beat the Steelers, and set the franchise single game passing record.  DTR sorta sucked at UCLA and gets injured as soon as he takes the field.  Cincinnati is somehow still in the playoff hunt (slimly, but still in).  They should bury the Browns.  I got on this at Cincinnati -7.

Minnesota is good.  They are better than Green Bay.  Last week Green Bay was -3 at Seattle and killed them.  In that game Geno Smith got injured and couldn't come back in the game.  His knee is, in the words of medical professionals, "sorta fucked up".  This week the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings are also -3 at Seattle.  Same spread to a better team with an injured QB?  Minnesota -3.  

Baker Mayfield has an insane record as a road favorite of 13-4 ATS.  I was as stunned as anyone to read that as my most vibrant memories of Mayfield are from when he stupidly played with one arm losing games for the Browns.  The Cowboys have had some recent success but let's be reasonable here.  They beat Carolina and the Giants.  Tampa is a legit "get in the playoffs and maybe win a game" team.  I think they take care of business here.  I'd like it better at 3, but I'll still take Tampa -4.

Current Record:  30-27