The Jungle Gym and NFL Week 6

 

I was thinking the other day about the playground we had at school when I was in fourth grade.  There was a merry-go-round thing, a metal disc which spun with steel bars to hold onto as kids pushed it faster and faster.  If you spun off, you'd land on the safety of fresh blacktop asphalt as if you'd laid down a Harley at 55 mph.  We had a swing set which thankfully had wood chips underneath it, but was for some reason set up about three feet from that blacktop, which meant kids would routinely leap from the swings and fly off onto the pavement like they had been thrown from a Mustang convertible.  The crown jewel of the playground was a jungle gym, which was a half circle dome that seemed to be about 20 feet tall, but I'm guessing was still 10 feet.  I was nine years old, and I was scared shitless to climb up onto the top of it, a spot which routinely had the 3 or 4 daredevil kids holding court resplendent in the glory of laughing in the face of death.  

Why no adult thought it was an awful idea to build this thing and anchor it onto blacktop still blows my mind.  I mean, I was a kid and I was thinking "Who the fuck green lit this thing?".  I don't think 9 year olds are supposed to be thinking about insurance liabilities when looking at something that was assembled allegedly for fun, but that's the way it was.  Besides the tetherball area and foursquare scene, the only other point of interest was this ceramic fort that looked like Swiss Cheese, so we all called it "The Cheese".  Nobody went into The Cheese after an older teenage kid took a shit in it (believed to Ricky Shildnick, but unproven), so that was a no-fly zone.  

There was a kid named David that decided that his way to move up the social ladder was to climb the jungle gym peak.  Seriously, there were only four kids that routinely went up there because it was so fucking dangerous, but David for whatever reason thought this was his key to social status at Manchester Elementary.  There were two girls that always climbed it, so I think he was trying to impress them.  One became some sort of teenage gymnastics savant that later fucked her adult coach, which seemed to go well for all parties involved until her mother found out and then she recanted and the coach was sent off in disgrace.  (Men didn't go to prison for fucking 14 year olds then either due to societal norms or Pennsylvania state law, either reason being rather chilling).  The other girl became a helluva softball player, a "tomboy" in parlance of the times, which I think now we would easily identify as a lesbian who predictably was not impressed in the way David had hoped she would be upon his ascent on the jungle gym.  

Anyway, David discussed his plan one morning as we colored maps or whatever bullshit they had us doing, and it became quite a topic in Grade 4 as the news spread like wild fire.  I gotta hand it to him.  After lunch we had recess, and he went up to the top with a grim dedication I would rarely see later from adult men.  He knew he was pushing the envelope, but for whatever reason, he was going to see it through.  He made it.  But then, he fell.  When he fell head first onto the concrete, there was a certain grace to it.  His profile made a tragic image, like Icarus falling from the sun towards the earth.  I will always remember the dull thud sound his head made as it broke his fall.  I don't think many 9 year olds have seen that much blood.  It was a hell of a thing.  

That's just the way these things go sometimes.  Despite the best of intentions and planning, things just go south.  That's kind of what I see happening this week for a couple NFL teams.  There is a crazy trend that is hitting at 78% of backing teams that have been getting their ass kicked, only covering less than 20%, and then playing a winning team when they are 6+ points underdog.  The two teams that fit this bill are absolutely terrifying to back.  As I have always said, any bet that makes you immediately think "this is a huge mistake, I'm can't win this" is a great bet.  Do I want to be sitting on New England +7 and Carolina +6?  Of course not.  That's why they are rock solid bets!  

New England cannot score, is starting a rookie QB that will probably be out of football in 2 years, and generally is "bad at football".  However, Houston is not the monster team some thought they'd be and they have cluster injuries at WR.  This seems like a perfect letdown spot for Houston.  I'll take the points for New England +7 and hope they can do something on offense.  Carolina is really shitty, but Atlanta is horribly overrated.  3-2 Atlanta inched by Tampa and New Orleans these last two weeks, two average teams at best.  They lost to KC/Pitt and should have lost to Philly.  How are they laying 6 points to anyone on the road?  Carolina is 1-4 vs the spread.  There is no reason to think they cover this, but I'm thinking that they hang around at home in this one.  Carolina +6. 

October 22, 2023 is the last time the Eagles would have covered 8.5 points.  Look, the Browns are terrible because Deshaun Watson is like a Biblical plague that has nestled onto the franchise.  I don't see how he can lead the team to win this game.  I will tell you what though.  The Eagles aren't too good.  I am going to tease the Browns up to 14.5 and take the NY Giants +9.5 vs the Cincinnati Bengals.  This HAS TO BE a letdown spot for Cincinnati.  Look at their schedule...  They lose to Baltimore last week in a gut wrenching OT loss.  They keep scoring and can't win.  The Giants?  They might not be as bad as we think.  I think they might be an average football team.  I think the game vs Cincy can go either way.  Cleveland +14.4/Giants +9.5.

Current Record:  8-6  

The Land Bridge and NFL Week 5

Here in Cleveland, we have one of those "rah-rah" civic pride tourist facing organizations that try to rope people into coming to Cleveland and promote a positive narrative about the city.  I received a social media post this week about "The Land" (something no one that lives here ever called Cleveland prior to paid media messaging).  It had a photo of some band I've never seen playing at The Happy Dog and urged people to come here because of the vital music scene, like it was New Orleans in 1922.  This is a perfect encapsulation of what Cleveland does.  It willingly embraces the idea of "wouldn't it be great if it was like this?" instead of "Well, this is what we've got, so let's focus on that.". 

Almost every major rock tour detours Cleveland now as they have found it more profitable to play Columbus and make the hardcore NE Ohio fans of the act drive there, a strict reversal of historical precedent.  The bands that do stop here are almost always on "off" nights as they played their "important" shows in Chicago/Detroit on the weekend.  "Hey wanna go see that show?  It's Sunday night at 9?  I guess the band is doing a one off after playing the Klusterfuck Festival last weekend.".  I get the feeling that the people that put that Rocking In The Land campaign together have never actually been to a show that hasn't taken place in a 20,000 seat venue, and imagine club shows are like what are shown in teen movies.  I understand how that ad campaign came together in that meeting room.  "Kayla had a great idea.  You know how we have the Rock Hall?  We should tell everyone about all the rock music we have here!  Like we have SO MUCH!  I went to Billy Joel last month, and didn't Jaden go see that one country guy at Blossom?  I think Mark the IT guy is in a band too!  We should go see him play sometime."

What Cleveland is especially good at though is building things that no one needs or wants, and then pretends during the entire process that it will "revitalize" downtown despite the obvious flaws in the plan.  About 15 years ago they spent $465M on The Medical Mart.  Listen to how stupid this idea was...  The plan was to have a permanent showroom for medical devices located in downtown Cleveland.  People in the health industry would then flock here to have conventions and presumably sashay over to the Medical Mart in a state of glee.  You might be surprised to learn that the medical community continued to have their conventions in Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix because THERE IS GOOD WEATHER THERE AND PEOPLE WANT TO GO ON A BUSINESS PAID VACATION, NOT WANDER DOWN THE DESOLATE WINTER STREETS OF WINDSWEPT CLEVELAND.  Alas, the Medical Mart failed.

Now the big idea brewing is The Land Bridge.  What is the Land Bridge you ask?  Why it's "The North Coast Connector that is a game-changer for Cleveland and will have a lasting impact on our city’s economic growth and development,” Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said. “This land bridge will not only enhance connectivity between downtown and the lakefront but also create new opportunities for businesses, residents, and visitors alike."  Allow me to translate...  They want to spend $230M to make a park like bridge over Route 2 from the area known as Mall C over to "the Lakefront" (which means the football stadium and Harbor area).  Now, I just had a meeting with a guy over by Mall C.  There's nothing there but government buildings, a couple office towers and a Starbucks.  There is no reason for anyone not going to court to go anywhere near that area.  There is nothing there but paperwork and prison sentencing.  The good news is that if you do park there when they put The Land Bridge in, and let's say decide to walk your kid over to the Great Lakes Science Center, it's only a 25 minute walk.  Who doesn't want to trudge over a mile with a six year old as you get pelted by the wind in your face?

The real issue here is I missed out on the $3M grant for the "feasibility study".  The people that got paid that money obviously said, "Look, give us the $3M and we will tell you what you want to hear.".  They should have just given me the money.  I would have pocketed the cash and rolled in a month later.  "Hey, I looked into it, and it turns out that's a fucking stupid idea.  Why spend a quarter of a billion dollars to create a walkway from nowhere to a football stadium we use 8 times a year?  You think people are going to drive in from the suburbs to whip a frisbee around those spooky degenerates that will migrate over from Public Square?  It ain't gonna happen.  Let's drop that money into plowing that football stadium into the Lake.  Thank you.  Can I please have my check?"  It will happen anyway.  The best part will be whatever numbers get tossed around by the grifters that get this project going.  "We expect this to bring in $768M annually to the region as residents from across the globe will drive here to see the splendor of THE LAND BRIDGE!".

People see what they want to see I suppose.  That's sort of what I'm thinking when I look at the New York Jets.  I think there is a large group of people that have bought into the narrative of the Jets being a talent laden roster led by a monster Hall of Fame QB that was the missing piece of the puzzle.  When I look at the Jets I see a poorly run organization with a bad coach, overrated roster and old QB that doesn't want to get hit.  When I look at Minnesota I see a team that has three quality wins in a row, winning at Green Bay, trouncing Houston, and beating SF.  I look at the Jets and I see them losing to the Broncos despite the Broncos having minus seven yards passing at halftime.  Fuck the Jets. 

The Jets v Minnesota game is in London.  Minnesota is a well run team that probably strategized five different scenarios on how to best plan for the trip.  Some of the Jets staff might not know they were going to London until someone asked them if they remembered to bring their passport as they took an uber to the plane.  Look, I get it with Minnesota.  It's hard to buy-in on Sam Darnold winning games.  Remember, all I'm looking for on the Vikings side is for them to outcoach Bob Saleh, a guy that is in way over his head in New York.  Rodgers picked up a knee injury of some kind in that Broncos game, so he's not 100%.  This is one of those games where if the Jets lose in a big way, it's a "timber" moment where I think the season starts to get away from them and the local media attacks.  Those guys went all in on a Super Bowl push, and even to a casual observer this Jets team looks like The Same Old Jets.  Minnesota -2.5    

Until I see the Jacksonville Jaguars play well, I'm going to keep fading them.  This really feels like the game right before they sack the coach, bring in The New Guy, and win a couple games.  That situation is grim.  Doug Pederson seems like a horrible match for the culture there.  They signed Trevor Lawrence to a kazillion dollar extension despite the fact that he has fairly sucked for a couple years.  He's the Daniel Jones of the AFC.  The Jags already regret that Lawrence contract, but if they team sucks, you can't fire Lawrence.  Lawrence isn't good enough to win you games, but he can lose 'em for you.  If you're the Jags, why tie yourself down for the next half decade to a guy that doesn't seem to like football all that much?  I know the Jags have won ten straight from the Colts, but if Flacco starts, I'm on the Colts +2.5.    

This is a pretty basic handicap.  The San Francisco 49ers are one of the top 3 teams in the NFL.  The Arizona Cardinals blow.  The Cardinals killed the Rams when EVERYONE was hurt on the Rams, and they've been outplayed otherwise.  This has that "good team asserting dominance" vibe to it.  The 49ers are 2-2 after getting past their injuries.  Debo and Kittle are both back.  Trent Williams looks back in game shape.  I have some concern about the 49ers Super Bowl loss hangover, but to beat the 49ers the Cardinals need to throw downfield or get Murray running around out of the pocket, both of which will be hard to do.  49ers have a top offense.  Cards have a bottom 3 defense.  I don't like taking big favorites, but this is a division game at home.  The Niners need this game.  San Francisco -7.

Season Record:  6-5

Altamont and NFL Week 4

 

There must have been something with the moon or Mercury was in a phase.  There was a weird edge to the scene at the gig in New Philly last night.  I'm not someone that goes in for that "phases of the moon" shit to explain away behavior, but maybe there's something to it.  You know how sometimes if you walk into a room and it just feels like something minor could set it off?  It must be the animal instincts we still hold within us.  Having played gigs in clubs for too long, I can usually tell if that guy is someone you need to keep an eye on, the junkyard dog of the pack.  This was different.  It was more of a "keep an eye on those guys" vibe.  

We played a couple of sets, and the crowd wasn't particularly engaged with the first one.  We played a lot of new material that isn't in the Muscle Memory Zone yet, more in the "I think it goes like that" tentative phase.  That didn't help.  It also didn't help that the sound guy was breaking in new gear and our on stage sound would vary wildly between a throbbing hum just short of a painful whistle and dropping out completely.  Think of it as having to give a Best Man's speech while someone right next to you kept fucking around with the TV on as loud as it could possibly get.  I thought we played OK, but who knows what it sounded like out there.

Anyway, we play a second set and we're clicked in pretty well.  There's more back and forth with The People.  We are getting down to the bottom part of the setlist, and in the middle of a song I see a commotion.  Some guy is shoving another guy and then his friends shove that guy so some other guys start grabbing them.  It's this ballooning mass of dudes being shoved towards the stage.  Then, out of nowhere from my left, I see this woman crack a bottle over one of these dude's heads.  Glass and foam spray everywhere.  It's like she just decided to jump into it though it didn't look like she had a dog in the fight.  Some would have been concerned that things had gone completely out of control.  I was not.

What immediately popped into my head was all the stage dialogue from the Rolling Stones Altamont disaster.  In a sense, I had prepared my entire life to make this one joke.  Now granted, I knew that only a small portion of people standing there would get this joke, but to them it would be VERY funny.  To me it would be VERY VERY funny.  Frankly, this is the entire reason to be in a niche rock band.  These brief moments are the reward for all the toil.  Telling myself jokes as the junkyard dog guys fought each other is perhaps the sweetest treat of all.

Brothers and sisters...  Who's fighting and what for?  Who's fighting and what for?  Brothers and sisters...  Why are we fighting?  Why are we fighting?  (At this point I switched to do the Richards part).  If that cat RIGHT THERE don't stop it man, we ain't playing.

If you somehow have never watched the "Gimme Shelter" documentary on the Rolling Stones 1969 tour, I cannot recommend it any more highly.  It is absolutely compulsory viewing.  Looking at how genuinely half assed enormous rock shows were being put on, the doe eyed attitudes of people in the scene, and the America that is so far gone yet so familiar makes it riveting.  The Altamont scenes alone are stunning.  I'm always surprised when I meet someone that's into music/counterculture that hasn't digested the film.  That being said, I will note that at this point Sugar was wondering why I suddenly was speaking with a bad British accent.  I also assume that most of the people standing there had no idea why I was saying any of these things as this brawl ensued, but I will say that for myself and the three other people I saw genuinely laughing hard, it was all worth it.  

Sometimes you have to take a path that looks a little rocky.  That's what I'm going to do today when I jump on the Cincinnati Bengals -4.  Look, an 0-3 team that looks like absolute shit yet is somehow favored on the road seems like a terrible idea to get behind.  I get it.  The Bengals defense is eye wateringly awful, unable to even put up loose resistance to the Washington Commanders.  That is what savvy NFL viewers would call "troubling".  Yet, this was a team that was supposed to win 10 games.  They aren't going 0-17.  They have to win at some point.  Why not against a Carolina team that won their first game last week since The Great Depression?  Let's be honest with ourselves.  The end of The Bryce Young era to embark on The Andy Dalton Era is not going to dramatically change the Panthers fortunes.  While Dalton is a professional football player as opposed to Bryce Young who looked like a high school kid tasked to compete with men, he's still Andy Dalton.   Andy Dalton is an amazing choice for a team that wants to take the ball from their 20 to the other team's 20 and then somehow not score any points.  I think the Bengals win what is sure to be a shitty game.  

Most of the games today are a wilderness of mirrors.  I'm not sure why almost all the key players in the league are already hurt.  It could be that football is insanely dangerous.  Maybe that's it.  Normally I'd be all over the Rams vs the Bears as it appears the City of Chicago has come to realize they took the wrong guy at #1.  However, EVERYONE on the Rams is hurt.  Can Miami beat that piece of shit Tennessee team with a guy they signed off the street to play QB?  I can't go the other way on that.  I'm sure as shit not putting money on any team that Will Levis is involved in.  You want to take SF to cover 10.5 with "some guy" playing WR and "some other guy" playing TE?  I'm not.  How about Jordan Love gimping out onto the field to play the Vikings?  Seems like Justin Herbert is going to try to play with his fucked up feet.  I have no clue if those guys can move.  The injuries make this impossible to handicap.  Yet, I'm oddly compelled to bet this Browns v Raiders game despite the fact that anyone a casual fan has ever heard of is injured.

The key to that game is Deshaun Watson IS NOT injured and WILL NOT be injured after he noted that he has no intention of running the ball, and plans on limiting any contact while he's on the field.  That's bad news to Browns fans as he cannot complete passes longer than 10 yards and also seems to be completely indifferent to that reality.  I am not blind to the fact that the Raiders are terrible, have their best two players on the injury list, and are imploding after their largely incompetent head coach called the team out after last week's loss.  The Browns cannot be counted on to cover a spread versus anyone, much less on the road.  You know that you're QB is killing you when the first thought when looking at the game is "Minshew is the better player".  I'm on the Raiders +2.5.    

I know Jacksonville +5.5 is probably the best side, but I just can't do it.  I work too hard for my money to get Doug Pederson involved in my finances.  The same thing with the Colts with the points.  Richardson is the Russell Branyon of NFL players.  One long home run and 57 consecutive strike outs.  Seattle +3.5 seems reasonable too.  Bills v Ravens?  Fuck if I know.  I'm just not feeling any of these other games at this point.  Time to live to fight another day.

Current record:  4-5       

Evan Dando and NFL Week 3

 

I went to see The Lemonheads this week.  It's been 30 years since I have seen that band play.  Thanks to the Google Machine, I discovered I went to see them in 1994 at Kent State University in a room where I believe I had taken a Sociology class.  I went with this girl on a whim.  I had a great time.  She did not as I never saw her in person again.  I don't think I did anything terrible, but I think my enthusiasm for that show might have made her ask herself, "Do I see my values aligned with this fucking guy?".  That answer was apparently "no".  It was odd to see a rock show where I had listened to Sociology exams.  It reminded me of this helpful tip.  If you are ever in a Sociology exam, there's a pretty good chance the answer to whatever question you're asked is going to be "Skinner" or "Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs".  You're welcome.  

One of my associates asked me to go to this 2024 Lemonheads show, and as I had corralled him into an outstanding show from The Hives/Bad Nerves, I figured it was fair that I go to that Lemonheads gig.  The Lemonheads are known for two records they made in the early 1990s, when "Alternative Rock" became re-pitched to The Public as "Modern Rock".  I really like the Lemonheads records from that period where they had a jangly melody supported by scruffy punk rock energy.  There's some really good songs on those, but I think some dudes from that time period got put off by the corporate effort to cash in on Evan Dando's good looks.  Dando always projected out this barefoot groovy Man Boy East Coast Boarding School Party Bro thing, but it certainly worked for him, so God Bless 'Em.  

Dando is for all intents and purposes The Lemonheads as he's had 43 band members over the years.  I know that looks like some bullshit thing I made up, but that's what an article I read said so I'm repeating it and I'm too lazy to fact check it.  It seems right to me because the main subject that is associated with Dando in the last 30 years is "drug problem".  One thing history has shown is that guys with drug problems often have great difficulty keeping bands together as instead of writing new songs and engaging with your collaborators in your band you are, of course, doing lots of drugs and spending your time focused on getting more drugs.  However, I had seen some video from last year of a Lemonheads gig and it sounded pretty good.  I went in with cautious optimism.

It was not a good sign when Dando came out to deal with his gear before the set and he looked very disheveled.  I'm not talking "sorta sloppy" like a 26 year old can pull off disheveled.  I'm talking more along the lines of "creepy drifter".  On top of that, he seemed out of it.  This wasn't the look of a music pro getting ready to deliver a solid set.  This was the look of a guy that knew he walked out on the stage to do something but he couldn't quite remember what.  Then the show started.

I don't know if you've seen video of The Heartbreakers when Johnny Thunders was in his full "doomed angel flying too close to the sun" mode, but this was a late middle aged guy with a thickening midsection trying the same look on.  Anyone with a shred of empathy looked on stage and thought "Man, that guy needs help.".  He missed cues, slurred vocals, stared off in space, and abandoned songs midway through.  Now, there are probably some people that will want to wrap their arms around that and say some bullshit rock n roll myth like "that's so punk rock".  No, it wasn't.  It was a guy that was sick who looked like he might not wake up tomorrow.  

If you get down to it, it would have been better for all of us if we had just swung by the club and given him a couple of $20s so he could just go buy drugs.  He could have gotten his drug money and we could have saved ourselves the time watching that car crash.  I've seen a lot of rock guys play under the influence of whatever.  Hell, I've been one of those guys.  But I can't ever remember seeing someone on stage that fucked up and not in control.  He talked between songs every 20 minutes or so, and it was unintelligible.  I'm not saying the words couldn't be understood.  I'm saying that the words didn't fit together.  Example:  "Popeye Olive Oil garbage can.  Hitler.  Cleveland socket wrench standing sunset."  It was unsettling, not in an Andy Kaufman "clever performance art" piece way, but more in a "what the fuck is that guy on?' way.  On the upside, when they took a break mid-set for about 15 minutes, whatever stimulants they'd just taken in the dressing room perked everyone up for a few songs before the wheels came off again.

It was right before the end of the thing when he played a country song.  Goddamn the guy fucking nailed it.  Killer vocal and the band was in the pocket.  Depending on your point of view, it made the night better because the song was so good, OR it made the night that much worse because you could see how much the man had thrown away.  Self destruction sells tickets I guess.  I assume Dando and his merry band of parasitic enablers jumped in the van to the next town and the next score.  Good luck boys.

Speaking of luck, I could really use a turnaround this week.  That Giants handicap last week was right on, but they somehow get the kicker injured on the first play and couldn't kick field goals for the rest of the game and thus lose.  I get the idea that punting and kicking are two different skills, but wouldn't you think a guy that punts the ball professionally would have at least a modest chance of success on a short field goal?  The Giants didn't think so and opted for bad pass on a 4th and goal instead of trying a 21 yard field goal to go up by three late.  That's why the Giants are the Giants and will be forevermore.  Once bitten, twice shy?  Not this guy!  I'm backing the Giants again this week.

Look, the Browns don't look very good.  Watson can't move the team at all because the only passes he can complete are under 10 yards.  You have to hand it to Stefanski and Co.  They have looked at the situation and thought, "Well, our QB sucks, so let's try to make sure he doesn't lose the game for us.".  The Browns are going to try and win games with defense and field position, a very 1973 way of playing the game, but it's all they've got right now.  There is no reason to think that a very average football team trying to win with field position and defense can cover 6.5 points.  I am on the Giants +6.5 with the idea that they are max motivated, probably not as bad as the NY media would have you believe, and I'm not sure how the Browns can create a two score margin of victory.

I am also sticking my hand back on the stove and betting against the Packers again.  The Packers are having a little theater performance about playing Jordan Love with his fucked up knee this week.  Ohhh!  Is he or isn't he going to play?  They just made him one of the highest paid guys in the league, essentially committing him to be the franchise cornerstone for the next half decade.  I can't see any reason to rush a dude with a torn up MCL in a non-confernce game against the Titans.  They had to figure with games v Colts/Titans that the scenario was they needed to go 1-1.  They got the win last week, and have a divisional game v Minnesota next week.  THAT is the game they must be focused on.  I see this as a potential flat spot.  Also, there is no way that Tennessee can be as shit stupid as the Colts were last week and not stack the line against the run.  Green Bay ran the ball 53 times last week and the Colts somehow allowed that to happen.  There's this idea that all these NFL organizations MUST be smart because... well... they're in the NFL.  Malik Willis is not, nor ever will be, a starting NFL QB.  Yet somehow, the Colts were unprepared for the Packers to run the ball and make sure Willis didn't have to make throws.  How is the Colts defensive coordinator still employed?  Tennessee won't make that mistake.  Although there is a good chance Will Levis will singlehandedly lose the game for the Titans and I bash my TV repeatedly against a tree in the backyard. Tennessee -2 

Watching Jacksonville last week a few things struck me.  1). There are very few cities as depressing as Jacksonville.  I've been there before and it seemed to be populated strictly by Cracker junkies, monster truck enthusiasts, and stupid fucking hillbillies.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there are some well heeled folks that exploit those other people as a labor force to run their Vape Shops, Low Credit Auto Lots, and spooky strip clubs, but on the whole, Jacksonville is the worst aspects of America the day after getting wasted at a Morgan Wallen concert.  2). Trevor Lawrence just isn't the guy.  He was touted as one of those "can't miss, QB of a generation" but it seems like he's going to settle into being the 14th-16th best QB in the league.  I mean, that's OK.  It's a great living.  The problem is the expectations are he's going to be Led Zeppelin, and it turns out he's The Firm.  3). The whole situation seems dysfunctional.  Doug Pederson is yelling at everyone, and no one wants to get yelled at by some carpetbagger in a teal visor.  The Jags can run the ball, but just don't call running plays.  The defense can't make a stop when they need it.  They're sorta shitty, know they're sorta shitty, and they'll have a bumpy season of being disappointed.  I have no idea how they go into Buffalo and get a win.  They might keep it close, but Trevor will disappoint the methhead Jags faithful again, all 28 of them.  Buffalo money line. 

Current record:  2-4

           

Low Involvement NFL Week 2

 

I was watching the Presidential Debate this week.  I don't know if you watched it, but if you didn't, you probably should.  I remember in the past when these debates were on and one of the old men would say something like "We need less taxes so we can stimulate the economy!" and then the other old guy would say "We need to get back to manufacturing stuff in America!" and then we'd all talk amongst ourselves at which of these obviously smart old guys we should vote for.  The two choices were serious people.  People with experience and knowledge.  George Bush, Bob Dole, John Kerry, Al Gore...  You had a sense "that guy knows more than me".  Boy, have times changed.

Now it's sort of more like a reality TV show where we are all in for the ride.  One is an obviously polished white collar politician, and has some experience in the Senate.  Maybe not as much as you'd have liked in 1984, but now you'll take what you can get.  The other candidate is of great concern.  You've this really old man in orange pancake makeup saying crazy shit with no foundation in any kind of facts, the kind of a guy that most small town bars have sitting down at the end.  In the small town bars, everyone in town sorta laughs at him and says, "Well, that's just Otis.  Just ignore him.  He's crazy but he'll go home around 9."  This is the same as that situation, except in our case 45% of the people in the bar are thinking "We should give Otis nuclear weapons and all of our PIN codes to our bank accounts!".  

Trump is unfit to run an Olive Garden much less the United States.  It's hard to fathom how anyone that has seen him speak publicly for more than 30 seconds doesn't think to themselves, "Something is wrong with this Old Man.  Why does anyone think it's a good idea for him to be in charge of anything?".  I then read something that helped explain some of his core support, a large group called "Low Involvement Voters".  This means "people that don't pay attention to anything".  Like when Trump starts saying he's going to put tariffs on everything coming into the country, that sounds really good if you don't know what "a tariff" is.  Hey dipshit, if the person importing olive oil has to pay an extra $1 per bottle in tax to get it to his warehouse, who do you think is going to eat that $1?  His margins are the same, so that $6 olive oil is now $7 olive oil coming to you.  

"Low involvement people" are not great news for the rest of us that can see clearly that Haitians aren't eating people's pets, no one is a Communist, no one is killing newborn babies, and when someone says they have "a concept of a plan", they don't understand the complexity of the question much less have an answer.  Check out this stat...  White voters without a four-year college degree are almost twice as likely to say they’d vote Trump (63%) than to say they’d vote Harris (34%).  These are the same people that thought Mexico was going to pay for a wall.  Fucking A.  A third of the country are morons and we have to hope enough of the other people with a shred of common sense watched that insanity on Tuesday.  When I see someone with a house that is a shrine to Trump, I assume they're either a fascist or a fucking dope.  It's like putting a billboard up in your yard to announce, "I don't know what reality is, and I am a racist".

Maybe "Low Involvement Voters" are focused on the things that really matter.  I'm, of course, talking about NFL Week 2.  The first week of the NFL season is that cold slap of reality to half of the league's fans that have somehow talked themselves into optimism on their team's chances.  I sat here all summer staring at Deshaun Watson on social media buying diamond pajama pants and flying around with his bare assed girlfriend giving as much thought to football as I do to group health insurance plans.  While terminally optimistic Browns fans tried to trick themselves into believing that Watson was going to be the guy they recalled from in his one good half of football as a Brown, instead in Week 1 he looked like a Poor Man's PJ Walker.  Let's be honest.  Deshaun Watson has no intention of applying himself to be a winning NFL QB.  He's done with this football stuff.  He just wants to buy stuff.  He is no longer a reasonable option as an NFL QB.  The Browns, having given Watson $230M, have no choice but to put him out there and hope some sort of magical thunderbolt strikes him and allows him to revert back to the player he was 4 years ago.  I suspect the team might want a thunderbolt to strike him dead, but that's a discussion for next week after Watson embarrasses himself yet again in what could be his last start in the NFL this week in Jacksonville.  I'm not betting on the Jags so much as I am against Deshaun Watson.  Jacksonville -3.

On the last week of August Malik Willis got traded from Tennessee to Green Bay.  After the Jordan Love injury last week, it now appears Willis will be forced to start on Sunday against the Colts.  Look, this would be a bad situation if you were a savvy veteran QB, but this is Malik Willis.  He has never thrown for a touchdown in the NFL.  He has 67 pass attempts in his career and has been sacked 15 times.   This isn't like plugging Josh Dobbs in.  In fact, Tennessee picked up Josh Dobbs a couple years ago off the street to avoid starting Willis in a late season game, and Willis had been on the team for two years.  I have no idea how you can win a game with this guy unless the Colts turn it over 4 times.  I got on this early at Colts -2.5, but I'd take it up to 4 if I were you.

I'm going with more chalk here.  I'm nervous about taking all these favorites, and I still might take the Raiders +8.5 or Giants +1.5, but give me the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off 10 days rest with Andy Reid having nothing but time to prepare for Cincinnati.  I watched some of the Bengals last week, and I don't care what the team is saying, Joe Burrow is hurt.  He bears no resemblance to the guy that almost won a Super Bowl.  He can't get the ball downfield, plus his line looks terrible.  Both sides of the Bengals lines got shoved around by the Patriots (The Patriots!) last week.  Remember, these are the same Bengals guys that made a big show of calling Arrowhead Stadium "Burrowhead" after their past success there.  I think Mahomes and the boys will want to get some separation here.  Kansas City -6.

Current record:  2-1

    

Drummer and NFL Week 1

 

When I was very young I lived outside of Philadelphia.  The house and surrounding area seemed very rural, but when you're five years old, a small vacant lot can seem like the Amazon.  It was the 1970s.  It seems insane to people now, but everyone in my 5 year old peer group spent their days as follows.  1) Wake up and shove down a bowl of Cap'n Crunch and/or Lucky Charms.  2) Throw on clothes that you found on the floor by your bed.  3). Go outside. 4) Have no contact with adults from 915am-5:59pm when you get called for dinner by your parent bellowing your name as they stood in the doorway 5) Eat the tasteless 1970s meal your Mom made in 32 seconds like a ravenous puppy while avoiding all vegetables except potatoes and corn. 6) watch the Rockford Files 7) Fight to stay up "just ten more minutes". 8) sleep and repeat.

We had no parental oversight and were essentially feral dogs patrolling a one mile radius from our homes.  We knew the topography of the surrounding ground like fucking Indian guides in Westerns.  "That skunk weed is bent.  Richard and his brother Robert were here looking for our fort.  Let's get some sticks and go beat them."  So while four kids were wailing on two other kids with sticks in the woods, our parents were smoking cigarettes and drinking Lancers wine blissfully unaware of any of our doings.  I cannot overstate how little my parents knew about what we were doing, or perhaps more important, cared about what we were doing.  For example, as people now can't comprehend how Catholic priests were able to sexually assault kids for years without detection, I can tell you firsthand, we TOLD our parents "Father Shanz took us swimming and made us take our trunks off so he could take pictures of us naked".  While one would think that news would be alarming, it was universally met with "I'm sure he had his reasons.  Now go wash our hands and get back in here for dinner.  If you aren't seated at that table by the time I put out my cigarette, you'll really have something to cry about."  That's the way it was.  You were on your own, but it didn't seem weird.  We were all in the same boat.

I had these neighbors, the Johnsons, who had an Irish Setter named "Drummer".  That dog was tied up to a dog house area with about four feet of rope.  He was enormous, or probably more accurately, seemed enormous to a five-year-old.  In retrospect, his being tied up to a tiny area and having no training whatsoever while living in a house of seven kids might have explained why the dog was fucking crazy aggressive.  When you walked past him to find a stick to give Richard a beating, the dog would lose his mind barking at you, pulling the rope to try and get you.  Every once in awhile, Drummer would get loose.

When Drummer would get loose, it was like the situation when you're about an hour into a horror movie.  The protagonists know there is a monster, they know what it is capable of, and they know that they now are its prey.  Somebody's number is up.  The word would spread quickly, maybe one of the Johnson kids would come sprinting up the hill yelling "Drummer is loose!  Drummer is loose!" as we all blinked into the sun trying to absorb this life altering new reality.  I remember one time when three of us sprinted to a tree, climbed up onto the "safe branches" above where Drummer could jump and tried to wait out Drummer's teeth snapping interest until we could scamper to the safety of someone's garage.  In this case, Drummer would not be denied.  As our parents smoked cigarettes and watched Match Game, my friend Christopher was tossed from the tree by his older brother as an offering to Drummer.  His screams filled my ears as we sprinted to my garage.  There was no time to feel guilty.  This was survival, and I felt the combination of survivor's guilt and shameful joy that it had not been me that was shoved off the tree.  It is said that even now, on a warm summer night, the high pitched scream of a five-year-old can be heard on a Full Moon.  

The best part about being five in the 1970s was that after Christopher was gored by Drummer, we all ate some shitty dinner, watched Rockford Files, went to bed and re-set the next day.  Drummer was tied back up, we all went outside after gnawing on a Pop Tart, and the same group of kids played together again, albeit with Christopher bandaged up a bit.  Everything started up again, brand new, yet filled with possibilities.  Yesterday you got beaten by these kids with sticks.  Today, maybe you'd be one of the ones with the sticks whaling on one of your assailants.  The wheel would turn.  This, to me, is where we are at with the NFL slate on Week 1.  It's all the same, yet different.

If you have read my NFL picks in the past, you know that I am a contrarian.  When they zig, I zag.  The Public is always wrong.  Walk into a Wal Mart and look around.  These people are fucking morons.  They are the same ones that now have gambling apps and are trying to put together multi team parlays that pay off at 65-1.  Let me ask you...  Do you think the guy that bought a $80,000 pickup truck and put a Monster Energy Drink sticker on it knows anything about anything?  Let's fade that guy and pick some teams that guy will never get on.

As we all know, no team has more hype around them than the Houston Texans.  This is the 2024 version of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team we only recall as having the sexy young QB that won a playoff game and is ready to Move To The Next Level.  Here's what you forgot.  They were one dropped pass away from missing the playoffs entirely, they got smoked by the Ravens in the Playoffs, and were basically the same as the Colts and Jags.  Give me Indianapolis +3 at home over Houston.

Carolina was one of the most pathetic teams of the last decade.  They never had a lead in the fourth quarter last year.  Not once.  I think they will still suck this year, but being the NFL, they will "suck less".  Granted, this wouldn't be a great marketing slogan for the guys in the Panthers ticket office, but it's all they've got.  "Hello?  Mr. Stevens?  Chet Robinson from the Carolina Panthers here...  The reason I'm calling is we have some partial season ticket packages I think you might want to take a look at for the upcoming year.  We really like what we are seeing in Training Camp, and we feel confident we are going to suck less this season."  What are you going to do?  It's not like the Saints are exciting.  Quick factoid.  Derek Carr is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of more than three points.  Carolina +4.  

My guys in the desert are hitting it hard on their "system plays" and I'm getting on board.  What does this mean?  Krusty and I have talked each other into betting against Washington.  There are three big negatives for Washington that don't have a great track record of success.  It's a rookie QB in his first start with a new coach in a new system with a new DC who is giving defenses to a new green dot guy.  Look, I'm no big fan of Tampa, but they are a three time division winner at home in Florida in the September heat playing the piece of shit Commanders.  Tampa -3.5.   

Nurse the Hate: Bring On The NFL

 

I am moving away from a life of "continual growth" to "survival".  All my hopes and dreams are now coming down to two things…  The distraction of NFL gambling and the lottery.  I’ve hit the age where I’m trying to balance being marginalized in most aspects of life, living with radically reduced expectations and living under the cloud of existential dread that seems to be 2024’s biggest takeaway.  Really, the little victories are all I’m pushing for now.  

I have a basset hound that ate two rocks last week.  I don't know why he did that, but he did it.  The good news is that he shit one out after being aided by some horrible vet induced chemical cocktail.  The other one was stuck in his stomach and had to be removed surgically.  That was a $3200 bill.  Super.  I got home and my dishwasher died.  The options are putting in a $350 repair order on a 20 year old dishwasher or buying a new one.  Verdict?  Hello $1200 dishwasher.  I flew over to England for a wedding in the high season, discovered that Edinburgh was even more expensive than London, and got food poisoning in the United Club in Newark after a super dodgy aborted landing made me miss the connection.  My credit card company will be sending a hitman out after me to shake down what is sure to be an awe inducing balance.  

Here’s the bottom line.  Thank God football is back and I can now apply some tunnel vision to drown out the sea of noise threatening to wash over me.  I have to get some winners together, and I’ll tell you, I have some opinions on these season win totals…

The Kansas City Chiefs have been so reliably good for so long, it seems like their 2023 regular season was  sort of crappy.  They just didn't have that dominant type year that they have reeled off since 2016.  Guess what?  They still finished 11-6.  Mahomes has been a starter for six years.  They have won the AFC West all 6 years, and never won less than 11 games.  They managed to do that when the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos were kind of good too.  Now they're rolling into a season where they appear to be transitioning over to better skill players just as the Broncos and Chargers are starting rebuilds.  The Raiders?  Well, they're the Raiders.  They serve only to be the opponents for when you and your boys travel to Vegas on a roadie to see your team win... and lose $3000 in craps.  As long as Mahomes stays healthy, the Chiefs should win 12 games easy.  Denver/Chargers/Broncos should be 5-1.  They also play the NFC South (Bucs/Falcons/Saints/Panthers).  What's that?  8-2?  9-1?  Now we're looking for a 4-3 record vs the rest of the schedule to get to 12 wins.  They've won 12 games 6 of the last 8 years.  Why not one more time?  Kansas City Over 11.5 wins.

Every year there is a team that completely flames out, and this year it’s going to be the Patriots.  It’s very odd to me the way that resolutely sound organization for 20+ years denigrated into a three way set of finger pointing where each camp wanted to take credit for the unprecedented success that they’d achieved.  They should be taking victory laps doing that three way bow the way crappy theater casts do after a performance.  Brady, Belichick and Kraft should all be standing around saying “No!  YOU’RE the greatest!” instead of all scrambling around trying to take all the credit.  The fact that Kraft is the one most focused on showing how smart he is, when he clearly did the wise thing during the dynasty run and stayed out of the way, is maybe the most mystifying.

The Patriots decided to radically reverse course on what they had been doing so well that it was called “The Patriot Way” and now decided to be “Player Friendly”.  I cannot ever recall a football team that got better by becoming more loose and chummy.  The Patriots run out a football genius who had perhaps the most control over any organization in the NFL and replaced him with what is by most accounts a questionable hire as head coach who has never coached before.  The team stayed somewhat competitive by playing great defense last year, and now they lost two of their best defenders to injury and traded a third.  Oh, and Belichick isn’t calling the defense any longer.  An already shoulder injured Jacoby Brisset will make a few starts behind an awful offensive line until they toss Drake Maye out there at QB.  There are no offensive skill players of note.  This looks all bad to me.  Where do the wins come from?  New England UNDER 4.5 wins.