2025 and Wild Card Weekend

 

I quit my job last week after 18 years.  It was sort of like getting out of an abusive relationship where your partner was always telling you how much you needed them and no one could ever love you as they hit you with a stick.  "You make me sick."  Wack.  "You are worthless."  Wack.  "Why are you making me hit you?"  Wack.  As the sinking ship of local broadcast television goes down, I will not be aboard to try to desperately cling to a lifeboat.  Au revoir.  I have de-boarded to try to pass this Master of Wine exam in June (it's almost impossible) and rely on matters of certainty to provide ample cash flow.  I would like to thank Ohio for legalizing sports gambling and Deshaun Watson for allowing me to easily identify his indifference to playing football as an example of such.  That wise investment in Watson's lack of results has helped give me the freedom to do things I want to do as opposed to being shackled to the poor decision making of others.  2025 is shaping up to be MUCH better than 2024.      

"Wild Card Weekend" is back after last year inexplicably being named "Super Wild Card Weekend" as if adding the word "Super" made it somehow even better.  The Wild Card round is always where the teams that aren't quite that good get exposed.  I'm looking at you 2023 Cleveland Browns.  There are six games.  Two will be really good fight-to-the-death games and the other ones tend to be decided very quickly.  You ever get settled in for a game, chili pot bubbling away, and within two minutes it's obvious who is going to win?  I think that game might be the Buffalo v Denver game.

I see the AFC coming down to some variation of Buffalo v Kansas City v Baltimore.  Denver isn't that good.  Every year there is a team on the rise that sneaks into the playoffs, but isn't quite there yet.  Looking at Denver's last month you have them beating the Chiefs second string, losing to Cincinnati, losing to the Chargers, and beating the Browns at home by one score.  Denver went 1-5 versus Playoff teams.  They beat shitty teams but weren't quite good enough to beat the elite in the league.  That's a big ask for them to go into Buffalo and beat the Bills with a rookie QB making his first playoff start. Buffalo -8.5.  Before the Bills second string losing last week, they were 10-1 in their last 11.  The Bills are good and they'll advance.   

I am getting on Minnesota.  Look, that loss last week does have me consider if The Real Sam Darnold is back.  The Lions, who have no defense to speak of, absolutely destroyed Darnold and his confidence in a real asskicking in what might have been the biggest game of Darnold's life.  As stupid as it sounds, this week against the Rams is actually a lower profile game.  I am assuming this game gets played in Phoenix which won't impact Minnesota at all.  All those NFC North teams only lost to each other.  That's the cream of the crop in the NFC.  It's them and Philly with a big drop after that.  You're telling me that the Rams, distracted all week because THEIR CITY IS ON FIRE, are going to be focused on making a surprise road trip and beating a superior team?  The Vikings don't give a shit where their plane lands.  All they know is the team they're playing isn't as good as the Lions.   Minnesota -2.5 

I heard some crazy stats about teams meeting for a third time where their last game was three weeks or less in the past are 14-2 to the over.  Playing Baltimore to go over is always sound advice.  The only concern is if the Pittsburgh offense shows up.  Russell Wilson is looking exceedingly more like the guy the Broncos dumped and George Pickens seems to be morphing into the classic Pittsburgh mentally deranged diva that gets dumped by the team and soon forgotten.  How many of those guys have they had?  Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burriss, Antonio Brown, Dontae Johnson, Claypool...  It's crazy.  I'll tell you this.  I'd never buy a used car from Mike Tomlin.  The guy knows when to get out of a bad vehicle.  I think Pittsburgh shows more than they did last game, but Lamar is too much to deal with for anyone this year.  Baltimore/Pittsburgh OVER 44.

Quick update.  I hit both of my season win total bets (KC over 11.5/New England under 4.5).  I have very quietly turned things around late this season.  Let's see if I can keep it going.  These playoff lines are dialed in tight.   

Current Record:  38-28-1

Tanking and NFL Final Week Saturday

 

The Cleveland Browns are intentionally tanking.  I know it.  Las Vegas knows it.  The Browns themselves know it.  The line today versus Baltimore is an astounding 20 points.  Even when the Browns went 0-16, they were never an underdog of 20 points.  Quick reminder, this is a team that was talking Playoffs/Super Bowl contention in August.  Yikes.  Things have not gone well.

When you decide to run Bailey Zappe out to start a game after being on your roster for a couple weeks, it tells you one thing.  They are not trying to win.  This is a live tryout to see if they want to bring him in to camp next year as a potential backup or #3.  While it is almost inconceivable that the Ravens lose this game, 20 points is a mind bending number to give an underdog.  Gun to head, I'm taking the Ravens, but I think there's a better way to get at this...

The crux of this game is not only will the Browns be facing a motivated superior team on the road trying to win the conference.  The Browns are approaching this like a preseason game.  In the Browns preseason games, they do not try to win, unlike the Ravens who approach every game like it's the AFC Championship.  Stefanski is always trying to "clean things up".  Ken Dorsey the OC is a goner.  Even if he wanted to call a high variance game and reach deep into the playbook, he can't.  The QB doesn't know all the plays.  I would expect a vanilla gameplan with forced targets to Jeudy and lots and lots and lots of passes to the Tight Ends.  The Browns want to lose and will call a game that appears to be intended to move the ball, but really isn't.  How do you lose?  Don't score.  Browns under 14.5 is what I'm doing, but the under 41.5 isn't bad either if you think the Browns defense plays their hearts out.     

If I win that early game, and the Ravens win easily I will take a look at betting Pittsburgh.  The Public will rush in to bet on Cincinnati if Baltimore wins with the thinking that Pittsburgh will have nothing to play for in that scenario.  I disagree and think that regardless Mike Tomlin is not going to want to roll into the playoffs on a four game losing streak.  I think Pittsburgh plays hard and this turns into a typical AFC North street fight.  Looking to place at Pittsburgh +3.5 or higher... 

Current Record:  34-28-1

The Death of Traditional Media and Sat NFL Week 17

 

I have worked in media for almost all of my adult life.  I remember when I knew that radio was over as a major media.  I was driving on I-271 and every single car I passed for 20 minutes had a woman talking into her mobile phone.  People listened to radio primarily on their commutes, and with the choice of listening to a "drive time double shot" of The Eagles or calling their dingbat friend Kaylee, the majority of Cleveland area commuters chose Kaylee.  Frankly, Kaylee at least had new stories and all commercial radio stations just continued to flog you with "Tequila Sunrise", so the choice was fairly easy.

As streaming emerged, radio refused to change.   I worked at the classic rock radio station in town from 1993-1998 and then again in something like 2003-2006.  Nothing had changed except maybe some window dressing.  The same 200 or so songs are presented in essentially the same way over and over and over and over.  How no one in that medium said, "Hey, every single person walks around with a device on them that allows access to every song ever recorded.  Maybe our stale presentation of "Aqualung" and "Jukebox Hero" with 15 ads an hour isn't going to cut it?".  Nope.  It's easier to pretend that the problem isn't real and keep doing the same shit you always did hoping it would all work out.  There is a comfort in making your own bubble.

I'm in TV now, and it is EXACTLY the same thing.  These local broadcast TV affiliates had a great little racket going.  These fucking things printed money like you can't believe.  If you wanted to watch TV, they were the only game in town with federal regulations preventing Leo and I from erecting a broadcast tower in his backyard and start doing newscasts.  Side note, I always felt an amazing TV show would have been to have Leo sitting at a news desk while a host asked him to explain current events.  "What I Think The News Is-with Leo P. Love".  Would there have been massive misinformation broadcast?  Yes.  Would it have been good TV?  Also, yes.  What do you want to watch?  Some vanilla local newscast talking about whatever shit the city water department did, or Leo struggling to remember what he thought he heard about some shooting downtown?  I'm telling you, it's ratings gold.

Anyway, these TV stations were so smug because they controlled almost all access to video advertising.  If you wanted to reach a large audience, all you had to do was run a schedule on any of the four local network affiliates and it would deliver results.  It didn't really even matter which one.  There were five ways of getting access to TV viewers, the four affiliates and the cable TV company.  That was it.  These folks swaggered around like they were geniuses and really all they had going from them was no competition.  If you wanted to reach all the people in town, THEY were the only on ramp.

With the unbelievably swift rise of streaming, suddenly everyone has a TV show.  Shit, you don't really need a show.  People under the age of 35 have such a lack of attention span thanks to their upbringing, they just watch snippets of video.  So how did all these great minds in broadcast TV respond?  Just like radio.  Keep doing the same shit you've always done and tell yourself how kick ass you are despite all evidence to the contrary.  Whereas just a few years ago these four stations were the only access point for big TV audiences, now EVERYONE can sell you TV of some kind.  

Local broadcast TV is OVER and most of the people working in it don't even know it.  They are clinging to outdated ideas in a desperate attempt to ignore reality.  "Hey, we are the #2 morning news!".  Big deal Bro.  Nobody is watching that shit.  If you are the #2 local newscast, that generally means 98.5% of the area is not watching you.  The world changed and local TV didn't change with it.  To be inside it and see the willing suspension of disbelief is really something.   There used to be four daily newspapers in Cleveland.  Those are gone.  There used to be fierce competition between multiple radio morning shows, all of which were big local celebrities.  Now I can't name three morning local DJs and I worked in radio for 16 years.  Local affiliate news teams really used to be like Ron Burgundy.  WEWS-TV owned a helicopter and a fucking boat for some reason.  I suggest that if that boat is still afloat out there, that any current station employee not tied to revenue jump in for safety's sake.  The water is about the get very choppy for you friend.

The NFL games were on Netflix on Christmas.  That would have been UNTHINKABLE three years ago.  24 million people watched these games on Netflix this year compared to a combined 28 million last year on CBS/Fox/ABC.  That's just US viewership too.  The global numbers aren't in yet.  This points out that fans will find the games regardless of where they are made available.  The downside for traditional TV?  Apple and Amazon and Netflix are now in your game, they have deeper pockets, they know your consumer data, and they can close the consumer loop by not only advertising a product but provide the opportunity to buy it with one click of a button.  Uh-oh.  We better get that "What I Think The News Is with Leo P. Love" show active at the old TV station...  But until then, I'll just follow the game wherever they go.

Today's games are on the NFL Network.  I assume I have that somewhere on my confusing web of TV packages.  What a blessing.  The holidays really do provide a horn of plenty, don't they?  It's am embarrassment of riches to be able to press a button and watch the LA Chargers and NE Patriots in an almost meaningless game.  I suppose the Chargers really need this win to get into the Playoffs (where I assume they will be eliminated by one of the four legit AFC teams).  For whatever reason I have been bombarded with Drake Maye propaganda this week.  The worm has turned on Caleb Williams.  Michael Pennix was news last week.  This week it's all about how great Drake Maye is.  Sure, his stats are pretty good but the Patriots have still lost 6 of their last 7.  They stink.  I think the Chargers win an ugly game where they take an early lead and just grind in classic Harbaugh fashion.  Weird stat for ya.  Chargers have the best first half defense in the NFL.  I'm on Chargers -3 First Half.  I have a fear of a NE backdoor cover on this game.       

I am out of the Arizona Cardinals business.  They looked like they might win the NFC West.  I bet on them a few times, and they've lost 4 of their last 5.  Fuck these guys.  Kyler Murray fades down the stretch, and he's doing it again.  The Rams are somehow 8-2 in their last 10 games.  You get the better QB, the better coach, the team trending in the right direction, and the favorite in a time where favorites are winning 75% of the time.  The Cardinals tend to keep it close but make a backbreaking mistake late in games.  LA Rams moneyline.

Current Record:  32-28-1

Christmas 1971 and Holiday NFL

 

Even as a young kid, I was interested in rock music.  I believe the first LP in my collection was the "Woodstock 2 soundtrack" on a Christmas morning as a five year old.  This was given to me by my parents.  Now, the first thing you might think is "Why would Greg's parents think that a five year old boy would like obscure live Jimi Hendrix jams, CSNY and Melanie on a double LP?".  This is a very valid question.  Even now, with God knows how many records, CDs and sound files I have in my possession, I have never heard Jimi Hendrix's "Get My Heart Back Together" or Mountain's "Blood of the Sun" in any other context except on this record via my shitty blue plastic record player that was in my room.

In retrospect, it's sweet that my parents decided to fed into my interest in rock music.  My parents had no knowledge or interest in rock.  They somehow threaded the needle of the 1960s by graduating college in 1962 and had me before the Beatles blew up past being a teen sensation.  When you watch documentaries on the late 60s, it's all protest marches, free love and groovy outdoor music festivals.  My parents would have been pushing a baby carriage, totally into the "Hello Dolly" and "Fiddler On The Roof" soundtracks and driving my father's company car station wagon.  They missed all of it.  All that crazy 60s stuff was just something on TV news for them.  Their lack of a grasp on the Beatles catalogue always blew my mind.  They knew "Hey Jude" and "Eleanor Rigby" and that was about the extent of it.  So how in 1971 was one of them at a department store record section and thinking, "I'll bet that kid of ours would really dig that "Woodstock Boogie" jam from Canned Heat on Side 4."?

My theory is that it was a moment of weakness where "We should feed into his interest" was met with "I don't know anything about rock, but I did hear that this Woodstock thing was a big deal".   What is perplexing is why they got the weird outtake laden "Woodstock 2" release as opposed to the absolutely classic "Woodstock-Music From The Original Soundtrack' LP.  I am chalking it up to having no awareness of the genre or, speaking frankly, a large price difference in Woodstock 2 over Woodstock at the register.  I mean, I was five, so it's not like I would have been aware of the Jimi Hendrix canon anyway, much less be able to grasp what the fuck was going on there.  I can say honestly, I tried to get into that record from Age 5-13, and it was only when I cracked the code on Jefferson Airplane on Side 2 as a 15 year old that I could wrap my arms around the rest of the record.

I don't think I ever properly thanked my parents for that Xmas present because I was a little fuck looking for his next toy, and I thought the record sucked until I was 15.  It's not when you get some distance from some of these presents that you can see the love that went into them.  That gift wasn't the record per se, it was supporting something I was interested in despite neither of them having an grasp of why anyone would be interested in that area, much less their little five year old son.  That indulgence is quite a nice gift, and probably one of the reasons I have spent most of my adult life writing stupid little songs and traveling around singing them.  Sigh.  I should have said something.

One thing I will say is this...  I like Baltimore today.  I am not a believer in the Houston Texans, and even less so without Tank Dell.  Stroud has regressed, and if the Texans can't get a running game going Stroud will look crappy in three-and-longs.  The Texans don't really have much to play for, and Baltimore has a lot riding on this game with needing a win to try and get the AFC North crown and home playoff games.  I got on it late, but I'm on Baltimore -6.

Current Record:  31-28-1         

   

Kafka Visits Zuckerberg and NFL Week 16

 

I had all my Meta accounts suspended because the Meta bots decided a joke I made about having to pay for Marvin's two stomach surgeries by becoming a narcotics dealer was me using the platform to sell drugs.  Facebook, which at this point serves almost exclusively as a platform for misinformation, scams, and identity theft, had decided that my attempt at sarcasm was the real problem.  Now, they may or may not be right about that.  However, what I would like to focus on is the hopeless task that awaits any normal person that gets their account disabled.

First, Meta has constructed a perfect loop of "customer service".  When you find out your account has been disabled they give you an opportunity to appeal the decision.  You aren't given a reason for the account being disabled in the first place, so this makes the appeal process VERY difficult.  It's a digital Kafka role playing game where you have to defend yourself for a crime that has not been identified.  When you send the appeal in, you get a screen which says "We'll let you know".  There is no back and forth or any email given.  They will get back to you... or not.

So after a few weeks I had not heard anything.  It wouldn't have mattered to me at all but the band's database is that Facebook page.  It became swiftly evident that it would be hard to let anyone know about our gigs, LPs being released, etc.  This was my motivation to solve the problem.  I will now save you or anyone you know a great deal of time by telling you how to get this done.  First, you have to be persistent.  The only way I could figure out how to interact with the company in a meaningful way was to get my Instagram account verified which would then access a "customer support" feature.  This cost me $15 but I figured it would be worth it.  As far as I can see, this is the one and only way to contact Meta.  They don't even have a phone number.  It's all a bunch of Indian dudes sitting at card tables responding to chat texts.

What I didn't count on was how infuriating the customer support chat is to use.  You first have to get past the bot chat feature.  If you manage to get past that (I did by opening three different reasons for needing to talk to someone), you will be asked through amazingly stupid questions that don't help anything.  Example:  What can I help you with today?  "I can't log in". OK, let's have you log in to see what the problem is.  "I can't log in."  You are not able to log in?  "No". Have you tried logging in with another device?  "yes".  Were you able to log in there?  "No.  I can't log in anywhere."  What is your url?  "I don't know.  I can't log in."  Can you log in to tell me your url?

It goes on like that for about 25 minutes for the first part of the chat regardless of how well you explain the problem in the initial contact.  Then if you have the right guy (it's always an Indian man that seems to be about 26 years old) he will maybe figure out what you are trying to accomplish and the hurdle you face in trying to do so.  It's important to note, many of these guys don't seem to have the ability to put 2+2 together.  It really seems like they're fucking with you.

On one of the chats I had a guy call to tell me to forget about trying to get my account back.  The account was gone.  When I asked to speak to his supervisor, he said he didn't have one.  "You don't have a boss?"  Yes, but I don't know who that is.  "So who instructs you on what to do?"  No one,  We get emails.  "From who?"  I don't know.  "So if I was General Motors and couldn't get into our account to buy a bunch of ads, who would I talk to?  "I don't know.  I'm sure there is somebody."

I finally got some action going when I started a chat saying I wanted to place a five figure advertising buy for the Whiskey Daredevils but couldn't log onto our band account.  Can someone help me log on so I can give you $10,000 in revenue?  THIS got some action.  Within a week I had a fellow who was very pleased with himself who called to tell me the account was active again and he had fixed everything.  Though it had taken 7 weeks, 9 online chats, 5 phone calls, and countless hours scouring the internet to figure out how to do it, I did it.  We now hope to be able to tell you when we are playing gigs again.  In today's world seven weeks is like a decade, so I hope you all remember who we are when that next post hits.

I wish I had spent that time on getting my account back focusing on the NFL.  I took a couple bad losses last week.  The good news is THIS WEEK is a great time to right the ship.  Why?  Because Old Reliable, aka The Cleveland Browns are doing their traditional late season move of starting a player that clearly has no business being a starting NFL player as the QB.  I guess they have this small hope that they get lucky and somehow have stumbled onto the next Tom Brady, but they always find out they have the current Cody Kessler.  I have no fucking idea why they are starting DTR this week as he has already shown that he can't start in the NFL.  Winston can get the ball downfield, beat the Steelers, and set the franchise single game passing record.  DTR sorta sucked at UCLA and gets injured as soon as he takes the field.  Cincinnati is somehow still in the playoff hunt (slimly, but still in).  They should bury the Browns.  I got on this at Cincinnati -7.

Minnesota is good.  They are better than Green Bay.  Last week Green Bay was -3 at Seattle and killed them.  In that game Geno Smith got injured and couldn't come back in the game.  His knee is, in the words of medical professionals, "sorta fucked up".  This week the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings are also -3 at Seattle.  Same spread to a better team with an injured QB?  Minnesota -3.  

Baker Mayfield has an insane record as a road favorite of 13-4 ATS.  I was as stunned as anyone to read that as my most vibrant memories of Mayfield are from when he stupidly played with one arm losing games for the Browns.  The Cowboys have had some recent success but let's be reasonable here.  They beat Carolina and the Giants.  Tampa is a legit "get in the playoffs and maybe win a game" team.  I think they take care of business here.  I'd like it better at 3, but I'll still take Tampa -4.

Current Record:  30-27

Oh Canada and NFL Week 15

 

I went up to Canada this week to pay a visit to Pillitteri Wine to talk about their ice wine and appassimento winemaking techniques, the way one does.  I hadn't been to Canada in years.  It hit me that the last time I traveled through the Buffalo crossing was when Gary was still in the band.  The one (and only) time we went to Canada with Gary was when we played a Friday night gig at the Mohawk and stayed at Marty's place afterwards.  We were going to do Erie the next day, so we had a full day of downtime.  I grew up in Erie so I can say this with a sense of experience.  When faced with a full day of free time in early December, Erie does not present a full menu of opportunities for grown men from Cleveland.  At least in Buffalo we could go take a look at Niagara Falls and maybe kill time in a casino.  

Ken was still working on his degree, so I remember he had planned to study at Marty's house while Leo, Gary and I went out for our mild adventure.  We jumped in the van and drove towards Niagara Falls.  As I'm driving up there I ask the two other guys, "Which side of the Falls should we do?  US or Canada?".  Gary had no opinion, and Leo said "Canada".  I agreed with him as going to another country at least sounded interesting.  "OK, Canada it is!".  This was so long ago you didn't need a passport to make the border cross, just your driver's license, so you could make spur of the moment decisions like that.

We drive up to the border crossing and hand the man in the booth our IDs.  The guy asks, "Have any of you ever been arrested in Canada before?".  No.  "OK, pull up over there and go inside the office."  I've done this border cross a bunch of times and never had this happen before, but whatever.  We walk inside the office and get told to sit in this waiting room area with a small group of other people.  They have our IDs so we aren't going anywhere.  About 15 minutes later a Canadian cop stands at the counter and says "Gary?  Which one of you are Gary?".  

As Gary walks up to the counter the cop immediately starts lambasting him in front of the entire room.  "Did you get arrested in Toronto a few years ago?  DID YOU?  WELL WHY DIDN'T YOU SAY "YES" WHEN THE MAN AT THE BOOTH ASKED IF ANYONE IN THE CAR HAD BEEN ARRESTED IN CANADA BEFORE?".  I mean, he REALLY laid into him.  Everyone in the waiting area was wincing and going "Ohhhhhh" as the dress down continued.  The cop did have a point though.  The even bigger point that I wanted to tell the cop was "Hey, this guy knew he was going to get flagged on this and instead of saying "Guys, we might have a hassle if we try to cross the border.  We should probably stay on the American side." he decided to see if he would skate through.  In his risk/reward analysis he decided that instead of revealing a potential issue to his bandmates, it would be better to flip a coin to see if he would get tossed in a Canadian jail.  This was one of the mounting red flags in the Gary Era of the Daredevils.

Gary gave some sort of unconvincing response to the cop like you'd see of someone that got called in front of a judge in traffic court.  It was a variation of "I thought the lawyer took care of it" and "I didn't know" that no one was buying into, but legally he wasn't on the hook for anything because we all got our licenses back.  I think we got pulled into the office just so they could yell at him in front of a bunch of people for lying at the crossing point.  By the way, we never got the story on how he got arrested and the ensuing legal drama, which would have at least been an interesting story on the drive from Buffalo to Erie.  

I remember a couple of other things from that little day trip.  We went into a casino where Leo and I decided to take our gig money from the night before and play it on red/black on a roulette wheel.  If we won, we'd eat a good seafood meal in Erie.  If we lost, we'd have to get dinner in a gas station.  Leo would choose the table and the time to put the money down, as was our custom.  Leo picked red, it came up red, and we later ate at what was then The Buoy on the Public Dock in Erie.  I ate the scallops.  They were previously frozen and rubbery.  The broccoli was overcooked.  The baked potato was on point though.  

The other thing I remember was going into the Duty Free shop so Gary could spend the last remaining $5 of Canadian currency he had on him.  I swear to Christ he spent 20-25 minutes walking back and forth deciding between a giant Toberlone and a glass maple leaf shaped bottle of syrup.  It got to the point where I was like "Hey man, we have to go.  We are running late.  Why don't you get the smaller Toberlone and the smaller maple syrup for the money so you can have both?  Or if you want something that's only Canadian get the syrup because you can buy a Toberlone anywhere.  Just make a decision...."  Gary, either oblivious or uncaring, paced back and forth between the two shelves running the options in his head making an occasional sighing noise.  In the end, after the excruciating decision making process he got the candy which he munched on contentedly as we drove to get Ken.  

And that was the last time I had been in Canada.

I was able to listen to a bunch of NFL podcasts on the drive back.  That Lake Effect snowstorm hit the Buffalo area, so I drove all the way around Lake Erie to get back via Detroit.  That's a lot of podcast time.  The one thing I kept hearing was how the Saints had not ruled out Derek Carr this week.  This seems at odds with reality as the Carr injury to his wrist was so odd it was being referred to as "career threatening", so I can't imagine why Carr would trot out there to play a pointless game for the 5-8 Saints.  True, it would give them a chance to win if he was healthy.  They were 3-2 after he returned from his previous injury, but let's be reasonable.  He's not playing.  That means that Jake Haener is starting, and the Saints morph back into being one of the worst teams in the NFL.  I'm going to move the line back to under a touchdown and take Washington -6.

As soon as the Browns got dismantled by the Steelers, I knew I wanted to bet Cleveland with the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs keep winning with flukes, crazy luck, and overall good fortune.  How many teams go 8-1 while somehow being 0-9 ATS?  Kansas City's offense is below average.  They just don't score a lot of points.  When you are betting the Browns, you are strapping in for Mr. High Variance himself, Jameis Winston.  He sorta sucked last week, so I'm hoping the pendulum swings back this week.  I took Cleveland +6.5 and I wouldn't be stunned if they won the game outright.  It's also important to note I could also see them losing 31-10.  That's why this is gambling.

I listened to a NY area podcast where I heard two angry guys yelling about the Jets and Giants for about 45 minutes.  Here's a fun fact.  The Giants practiced outside this week, I suppose to prepare for sorta crappy weather expected in New York this weekend.  Tommy Cutlets is starting for the Giants with Drew Lock now out with whatever is wrong with him.  In practice they did a Red Zone drill where it was first team offense v defense.  The offense went 0-17 in trying to score.  I repeat, 0-17.  I'm not optimistic on the Giants chances versus a Ravens team that needs to win badly.  The number is huge, so I'm going to bank on the Ravens coming out fast, putting up a big lead and then grinding out the second half on the ground.  Baltimore first half -9.

Philadelphia might be the best team in the NFC, but 5.5 is a lot of points to give Pittsburgh.  I can recite off all those "Mike Tomlin as an underdog" stats, but if you've read this far you already know that.  This seems like one of those classic Pittsburgh teams where the defense plays like angry dogs and stymies the other team just long enough for the Steelers to score late with a big slow white tight end you've never heard of catching a four yard pass to win.  Pittsburgh +5.5

Season Record:  29-24  

Rothaus Pils and NFL Week 14

 

I ordered a Rothaus Pils from the extensive bottle list.  The doughy waitress stared at me blankly as I did so, her mouth slightly open.  I wondered if she consistently had a dry tongue and if she wondered why.  She said "OK" as she took my order and walked away.  I didn't think she listened to what I said and waited for her to bring me the wrong thing.  Not listening has somehow morphed into the norm.  I can't tell you how often I need to repeat things to people.  I waited and looked at the wall of TVs, all of them playing obscure college sporting events.  

Ten minutes past and the doughy waitress returned.  "Umm what did you want again?".  Normally I would just order it again and accept the situation, but I felt feisty today.  "I knew you weren't listening when I ordered.  Hey, I'm just asking and I'm not assessing blame, but when I ordered did you not know what I was talking about at the time or just forget?".  She stared at me blankly.  We both knew I was definitely assessing blame.  I picked up the paper menu.  "Look.  See this one here?"  I pointed at "Rothaus" on the menu.  "Can you bring me a bottle of that?".  She looked at me with half closed lids.  "uh-huh".  

With the legalization of weed, it's hard to figure out if she was high as fuck, mentally challenged, or just didn't give a fuck.  My gut told me it was "just didn't give a fuck" and that was confirmed when I saw her standing by the bar shooting the shit with some other hillbilly server with a terrible tattoo barbed wire tattoo creeping up his neck.  Her plump gut pushed over the seam of her pants.  The bearded tattoo server guy touched her arm.  Love was in the air.  The Rothaus Pils may or may not arrive. 

I took that opportunity to dive into the NFL lines.  Look, there's one that jumped out at me.  I cannot understand why Arizona is less than a FG favorite to Seattle at home.  The Cardinals lost two weeks ago in a weird game at Seattle.  They are clearly a better team than Seattle overall and have played the second toughest schedule in the league.  It's tough to beat a divisional opponent twice, and the Seahawks are fairly dodgy.  I really like Arizona -2.5 here.   

I am getting the same vibes from Kansas City as that Steelers team that went 11-1 a few years ago but clearly sorta sucked.  I think the wheels are going to fall off the Chiefs.  I also think the Chargers are a team that have entered my "circle of trust".  This seems like they have morphed into one of those textbook Jim Harbaugh teams that plays tough defense, runs the ball, and doesn't beat themselves.  That is essentially what Kansas City is trying to, which is fine, but covering more than a FG is asking too much here.  In their last three, Kansas City has won on the last play versus a shitty Raiders team, a shitty Panthers team, and got their ass beat by Buffalo.  The Chargers are a legit first round playoff team.  I'll take Chargers +4.  

Pittsburgh lost on prime time TV to Cleveland on a weird snowy night.  The Browns made snow angels and celebrated like they won the Super Bowl.  Pittsburgh is 19-1 at home versus the Browns in their last 20 meetings.  Are the Playoff bound Steelers going to get swept by the Browns in the season series by losing at home in December?  No sir, they are not.  Will it be close?  With Jameis, anything is possible.  I'm staying away from the spread.  Pittsburgh money line.

Kirk Cousins is clearly injured.  The Falcons reported him having a right shoulder and right elbow injury, two fairly important body parts when you are trying to throw a ball past vicious thugs trying to kill you and take away the ball.  He's emotionally involved in wanting to play in his return to Minnesota, which I look at as an opportunity.  This Viking team is not an elite team, but they are a solid quarter final playoff team with a very good defense.  The Falcons inability to create a pass rush on Darnold is a good combo with a Viking defense that will pressure Cousins.  It's not a high powered Viking offense, but it's enough to win.  Minnesota is 5-1 at home this year.  Atlanta is soft.  Minnesota money line.   Cousins might not even play the whole game.  I could see Pennix going in for the second half.  Give me Cousins under 245.5 yards passing too.

Current Record:  26-22