Chicken Nugget Wars and NFL Week 11

 

I haven't spent much time with Leo in the van lately, so conversation on a three hour drive was bound to provide revelations of some kind.  We passed a bunch of billboards in the greater Erie area all advertising various chicken nugget combinations.  I'm not sure why the chicken nugget market is so contested in NW Pennsylvania, but some joint called "Mavericks" inside Trucker's World had a billboard that appeared to advertise an enormous bucket of overflowing nuggets, like a paint bucket that you would put on your dash board and just gnaw through as you knocked down the miles.  Sheetz, not to be outdone, countered with a product that seemed to combine the words "Shit" and "Nuggets" in their demand you pull over and enjoy an overflowing container of "Schnuggets".  This got the gears rolling inside the van as it jostled Leo's memory of a spontaneous dish he had created using tuna fish and Skittles.  I guess he melted down the Skittles somehow and that became a glaze or something?  I don't know.  My stomach did a flip flop even thinking about it.  He contended that "People loved it", though he did also admit being "stoned as fuck" during the creation and serving of the aforementioned dish.  

The NW Pennsylvania Chicken Nugget Wars drew us in.  Our thought was why stop at a bucket of nuggets?  Why create limits in the condiments?  This might be a great time for Mephisto's, Leo's magician themed dream restaurant concept, to strike while the market is hot.  May we present NW Pennsylvania's next "it" food... chocolate chicken nuggets.  There is a slight disagreement in how we present this next sure-fire food craze.  My vision is a paper box with 18-24 deep fried nuggets that houses a "sauce caddy" of three different chocolate dipping sauces (milk chocolate, dark chocolate and white chocolate).  A typical takeout order at Mephisto's would sound like "Gimme a 24 piece chocolate chicken nugget box with extra white chocolate dipping sauce".  

Leo's vision is the nuggets are pre-cooked and then encased in chocolate like a hard candy shell.  The downside to this is you'll have chicken at room temperature for extended periods, but we'll pump them so full of preservatives it's unlikely any bacteria could take root in the nugget.  Note, I said "unlikely", not "guaranteed".  The upside to this method is that a vast array of secondary condiments can be baked in like "Chocolate Spicy Curry Chicken Nugget" and "Jamaican Jerk White Chocolate Chicken Nugget".  Obviously, this is going to upend the chicken nugget landscape of Northwest Pennsylvania as soon as that first Mephisto's inevitably opens up off a Greater Erie PA turnpike exit.  The thought is that is going to be hugely successful, but it should also be noted that Leo was "high as fuck".  The key is to remember Mephisto's motto.  Mephisto's, it's anything you want it to be.

Buffalo is clearly embracing the Mephisto's lifestyle as everywhere in our hotel people were decked out in Bills gear.  This is a huge Sunday for Bills fans as The Witch comes to town, and the people really feel like THIS TIME they've got Mahomes number.  Look, the Bills are probably just as good as the Chiefs and they will be sky high for this game.  This is exactly the type of game Buffalo wins, a home game in season against the team that will probably knock them out of the playoffs yet again.  However, if you are going to offer me the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs with +2.5 AND give me +112 juice, I'm in.  Kansas City +2.5.

Every single talking head I have heard this week has confidently said "take the Browns".  When they zig, I zag.  Why the Browns are favored over ANYONE on the road, I have no idea.  There is an idea floating around that Jameis Winston is going to be electric in some sort of homecoming in New Orleans, which I can't imagine he has any axe to grind there.  It's hard to justify why either team will win.  The Saints really suck in all phases, but yet so do the Browns.  Winston is the great variable here.  In his two starts, he got lucky when Baltimore dropped two sure INTs.  San Diego didn't drop those and rolled easily.  I think the key is we have seen that Winston will create turnover potential, and the Browns aren't good enough to overcome that.  New Orleans +1.5    

Two things happen every single NFL season.  The Browns go in with big expectations and then fall apart.  Conversely, every single season the Steelers are finally projected to have a losing season.  Then, somehow The Steelers win 10 games with some bullshit patchwork offense and solid defense.  Check and check.  Steelers v Ravens is almost always a one score game.  What no one is talking about is Pittsburgh has beaten Baltimore in 7 of the last 8 meetings.  They know how to scheme Lamar.  Give me Pittsburgh at home with points.  I think Pittsburgh is the sleeper team in the AFC.  Pittsburgh +3.5 

There is something perversely fun in rooting against the Jets and Raiders.  They both go into the year with a bunch of insane hype despite obvious massive flaws in their team design and competence levels of their front offices.  I am going to tease both of them today and take Indianapolis +10.5 over the Jets and Miami -1.5 over the Raiders and aggressively hope for the continued failure of both franchises melted together like a chocolate chicken nugget.

Season Record:  16-18

Four More Years+ and NFL Week 10

 

Well, the election turned out like I had suspected/feared it would.  In 2016 the thinking was it was a fluke, or maybe the Russian interference helped swing the tide.  The white nationalism and bully pulpit strongman embrace wasn't really who were were as a nation.  People just didn't like Hillary.  Yeah, that's it.  But now with this result it's time to admit what America is a place where justice, fairness, and empathy are in the backseat to "Fuck you".  In my neighborhood there are a crew of Mexican roofers doing an install that have to look across the street to a sneering neighbor who continues to wave his "Trump: Take America Back" flag four days after the results.  "You are poisoning the blood of our country.  Now put up my roof."  I'll tell you what, I'm not looking forward to attending the Master of Wine seminar in January and having to explain to people of other countries why the majority of Americans think the way they do.  We are viewed as the stupid bully in the grade school class, and it's hard to argue the point.  I don't know what the path ahead is going to bring, but I know a bunch of people are going to get fucked, and as they hope for help the response is going to be "Fuck you.".  Good luck.  You're on your own unless you are in on the upcoming grift. 

That being said, it's a great time for the distraction of NFL football as we await the upcoming slide into autocracy.  It all sounds pretty bleak, but not as bleak as being a Carolina Panthers fan.  The Panthers have the rare distinction of not only being constructed poorly as they are a pass first offense with extremely limited skill players and no quarterback.  They also are playing poorly and appear to have no plan on how to win.  Yet, despite being wildly outplayed last week against a terrible Saints team, they managed to win thanks to now-fired Saints coach Dennis Allen's leadership.  The Panthers were outgained 254 yards to 446, had 80 yards rushing and held the ball for 25 minutes yet somehow won.  They didn't even look like they were trying to win either as their defense sorta jogged around the field.  

This week the Panthers play the Giants, who aren't exactly a juggernaut themselves but at least play hard.  I think the Panthers are the worst team on paper since the 0-16 Browns.  The Giants have won the two times they played crappy teams (Browns/Seattle) and have for the most part hung in there against the Washingtons and Pittsburghs of the league.  If they don't get a win here, where do they get one?  There is NO WAY the Carolina Panthers win two games in a row, much less traveling to Germany for this one.  The Panthers have won two games, but have lost by more than a touchdown in their seven losses.  I'll take the Giants -6.5 to cover.    

Why are the Jets favored in any game, much less on the road at Arizona?  The Jets blow.  You've watched them, right?  They can't block anyone.  They don't run the ball.  The defense is thought to be elite but, are they?  You can run on them, and Arizona can/will run the ball.  Arizona is the definition of an "OK team".  They are still thought of as being in the bottom third of the league because no one really pays attention to them, but they are ascended to become "sorta good".  Being "sorta good" is usually enough to beat the Jets at home.  Arizona +1.5.    

The Cowboys are a disaster.  Not only is the roster poorly constructed, but their top heavy contract guys are all hurt.  Their defense is awful, Dak is out, and Zeke stopped going to meetings.  It's all bad.  Meanwhile Philadelphia, despite my great misgivings about Sirianni's leadership, is going in the right direction.  It's tough to lay points with Philadelphia as at any given moment Sirianni will make a decision that is so awe inspiringly stupid you will be left speechless.  I think the way to get at this game is to at least assume that Philadelphia's top tier running game with Barkley will take advantage of Dallas's 30th ranked defense against the run and just grind away.  Unless the Eagles turn the ball over like crazy, they'll score.  Philadelphia team total OVER 23.5.    

The Bears just got an asskicking in Arizona last week.  I like to back decent teams off an asskicking, especially when they get to play a shitty team at home the following week.  The Patriots are just what the doctor ordered for the Bears.  Chicago is 4-0 at home, and now that they don't have to talk about that Hail Mary from two weeks ago anymore, they should be focused on this week's game.  The Patriots can't move the ball, but neither can Chicago so this should be a sludgefest of a game.  Instead of worrying about separation and getting pissed when the Bears keep it close, I'll just take Chicago moneyline.

Current record note, when I dumped out of that Patriots UNDER 17.5 I had to take Patriots OVER 16.5 on the other end of it and managed to middle it!  Hey-O!  Thanks New England for that otherwise meaningless late TD to hit the 17.  

Current Record:  14-16

The Election and Week 9

 

There is a Senate race going on in Ohio right now, which means tremendous amounts of money from both candidate's vested interests are pouring money into all of my devices to tell me how my two biggest concerns right now are immigrants (that are apparently exclusively Central American gang members intent on murdering young white women) and what appears to be middle aged men dressed as women competing in high school girls basketball.  Between us, I'm not really concerned about either issue.  If we can get some hard working immigrants to move to Ohio to do all the jobs our current population doesn't want to do, that would be great.  Also, I don't think that many 16 year old boys are chopping their genitals off to win a Ohio Southwestern Conference Girl's Basketball title.  If they are, that's the sort of dedication that I think maybe we should celebrate, not condemn.  I looked up how many trans people played high school girls basketball last year in Ohio.  It was seven.  There are about 12 million people in Ohio.  To me, this isn't one of our biggest problems, but based on the advertising spend, most other people that live here disagree with my assessment.  

I don't know how this election is going to shake out.  Either way, it's really depressing.  I've worked in advertising for the last 35 years.  The one thing that I have learned over that time that has stood out above everything else is that most people are complete fucking morons.  Here is how advertising works.  If something is repeated over and over, that becomes the truth.  Flim flam diet pills, reverse mortgage scams, time share hustles...  Most of us look at those and think "that's too good to be true".  Yet, there are a lotta rubes out there.  You remember Body Solutions?  It was this weight loss product which was touted to magically shed pounds off users with its secret formula (which was actually telling people to take Body Solutions after dinner and then not eat until breakfast, eliminating all their snacking calories).  They made $155M on their biggest year selling sugar water before the FTC shut it down.

We have about half the country right now that wants to buy political Body Solutions.  Problems like foreign policy, medical coverage, immigration, and the environment aren't even basically understood by the vast majority of the population.  If you don't understand why Russia invaded Ukraine, what NATO is and why it exists, and the ramifications of that military conflict on the global economy, it's easy to get pissed at Joe Biden because your gas at Speedway costs .85 cents more a gallon than what you think you remembered four years ago.  "I will end the war in Ukraine as soon as I get elected." isn't a plan. It's a Body Solutions ad.  

It's like people forgot how fucked up things were during the Trump Presidency.  If you're watching a lot of Fox News or listening to Bro Podcasts every week, it's easy to get convinced that you remembered everything wrong.  January 6th wasn't an insurrection.  It was a protest.  Trump didn't try to overturn the election.  It was stolen from him.  Once again, the principles of advertising, repeating a message over and over shows that it works.  About half the country can't wait to line up and hand over the country to a complete incompetent, someone his own handpicked advisors almost unanimously say "You can't give him power again.  He's fucking dangerous.".  It's amazing if it wasn't such an impending disaster.

When I look at the election, there are two quotes that come to mind.  One is from the great humor author David Sedaris who wrote about undecided voters in 2008, "To put them in perspective, I think​ of being​ on an airplane.​ The flight attendant comes​ down the aisle​ with her food cart and, eventually,​ parks​ it beside my seat.​ “Can I inter​est you in the chick​en?​” she asks.​ “Or would​ you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broke​n glass​ in it?”  To be undecided in this elect​ion is to pause​ for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.”  

The astounding thing about the Trump hardcore is that they have been completely duped by a conman yet again.  This is a serious time with some serious problems.  Trump is a 78 year old man trying to stay out of jail and is focused, as always, on his own personal gain.  Even the people in his inner circle got fucked on his last time in office.  Yet, there might be enough dipshits out there that aren't engaged enough to remember, sift through the media bubble they're in to figure out what reality looks like, and we will all get to take a ride on the bad impulses of a sociopath.  During this rise of MAGA, the United States has turned mean.  The great majority of people that I live near have a vibe of "Fuck You".  If you're in that Fox News/Tucker Carlson bubble the world keeps being presented as "They" are out to get "You".  It's hard to be decent when you think everyone you don't know is The Enemy.  In a way, I sort of hope for a Trump win so those people absorb the end result of the societal sorting of the "Fuck Yous" and the "I'm Fuckeds".  You better hope you get to be in charge of that sorting is all I can say.  When I think about a Trump victory on Tuesday, I think about H.L. Menken's quote "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

Talking about getting it good and hard, that's been my season so far with the NFL.  Whenever I feel like I have a sense of who is a good team, the NFL snow globe gets shaken up again and I realize I don't know anything.  I'm going back to basics on a couple of these.  Give me a good quarterback and a good coach, and that's a pretty decent chance of winning.  I'm looking at you Buffalo.  Miami is soft.  They don't have much of a pass rush, and they keep giving away leads.  If you don't rush Josh Allen, that guy will kill you.  I think Buffalo is one of the AFC elites teams (still), and this could be one of their annual Miami beatdowns.  Buffalo has beaten Miami 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Miami is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.  It's divisional so maybe it gets close, but Buffalo wins at home.  Buffalo money line split with Buffalo -6.    

Remember when it looked like Chicago was going to be the team they were hyped up to be all off season?  They won 3 in a row, and then lost that crazy Hail Mary against an apparently pretty good Commanders team.  Well... Those three wins were against an injured Rams team, Carolina and Jacksonville.  They've lost to the Texans, Colts and Commanders.  You know, Arizona is sort of like those three teams.  Arizona is 5-5 in their last 10 since Murray came back.  This is a Cardinal team that hung in with Buffalo on the road, lost a close low scoring game with the Lions, and beat SF/LA (both) and Miami.  I like Arizona -1 at home.

In what is the worst game of the year in the NFL, Tennessee takes on New England.  Both of these teams are atrocious but have average to slightly above average defenses.  I think my boy Mason Rudolph is starting for Tennessee, which means I considered betting Titans as I know he won't cause two turnovers that will force me to string together profanities into exciting new combinations like when Will Levis starts.  However, I think the more compelling bet is New England team total under 17.5.  There are two things I know about Jacoby Brissett.  1.  He doesn't take a lot of chances and will avoid turnovers.  2.  Because he doesn't take chances, he also doesn't score points, especially since New England has no running game to speak of.  I thought about going game under, but why not dial in on what I feel strongest about... a conservative New England team that really sucks.  New England UNDER 17.5   UPDATE:  Drake Maye cleared concussion protocol and will start, so I am dumping out of this.  

How is Carolina going to win another game?  The Panthers are a great example of what happens when someone from another line of business decides he can step in and be The Man in the NFL.  They have no roster, no coaching, and no will to continue.  There is a joy to see these Hedge Fund guys flame out.  Carolina is 1-9 ATS in their last 10.  They have one good game all year and Bryce Young is going to go under center this week to extinguish all hope.  Derek Carr is back, and it will be enough.  New Orleans money line and New Orleans -7 split.  

Current Record:  10-13

Trouble For The Land Bridge and NFL Week 8

 

I have great concern about the great Land Bridge project.  I had planned on spending most of my time just hanging out on The Land Bridge with an occasional frisbee toss with all the other folks congregating there, but now that seems uncertain.  The good folks in the Haslam Family, pillars in the community really, have decided to sue the city of Cleveland to get out of the contract they knowingly entered into with the city when purchasing the team.  Part of the deal with owning a pro sports franchise in Ohio is that after Art Modell pulled the team out into Baltimore, the state passed a law to prevent that from happening again.  It prohibits Ohio-based pro teams that use a “tax-supported facility for most of its home games” and that “receive financial assistance” from playing home games “elsewhere.” Compliance with the law requires (among other things) a team to receive government consent and offer the team for sale to local buyers. 

The Haslam Family, just a super group of folks, bought the team for $1B in 2012.  The team is now valued at $5B.  They play in a publicly funded stadium that taxpayers paid for, and made $94M in profit last year.  They came up with a little scheme which they unveiled with great fanfare to build a "complex" out by the airport that will include a domed stadium and "retail space" (which I assume means a Browns team shop, some shitty chain restaurants, and maybe a Lids location).  The great news is that this stadium will just be an economic windfall for ALL OF US, so all we need to do is give the Haslams $1B that they won't pay back and not make them pay tax on the money they make there.  The great news is that they have assured the public via their press announcement of this project that it will be a regional WONDERLAND with 70 events a year.  10 Browns games, a Taylor Swift type show, maybe Billy Joel or the Stones will keep going, and ahh...ahh... ahh...  Well, that seems like it adds up to 70, so it's fine.  

Normally I'd say, "Fuck you guys.  You made $4B in 12 years and you're clearing $100M a year in profits.  Build that fiasco yourselves.".  However, they knew when they bought the team what the deal was... You have a team that has to play their games in the city of Cleveland.  That's the deal.  But is $4B in profit enough?  Nope.  Time to employ an army of lawyers and see if you can weasel out of the deal, somehow jam the public into building a sure-fire economic loser, con your way into developing the lakefront land you left behind, and continue to put the worst winning percentage team in major American sports onto the field for everyone's trouble.  Who are these people and what happened to their souls?  "We need another $1B, so let's jam the city that has made us this rich and see if we can take the money they already don't have away from infrastructure, schools and social services.  After that I can get cracking on making more genius football moves."  They are the absolute worst. 

That being said, I am nervously taking the Browns this week.  The Browns are totally fucked.  They have no QB, no money to get a new one in the next three years, have all kinds of offensive line problems, and don't have any impact players on offense.  However, I have to think that ANYONE is going to bring more to the table than DeShaun Watson for the offense.  Look, the team knew way before the rest of us that Watson didn't want to play football any longer, he just wanted to go shopping.  There has to be a sigh of relief from the entire building when Watson was gone.  This is a great spot for the Browns to get that "first game now that the problem is gone" lift from Winston against a poor Ravens pass defense.  I can't see the Browns winning, but I think they can keep a divisional opponent within one score at home.  I got on this early.  Cleveland +9.5

Arizona is on a short week, on the road, West Coast going to East Coast for a 1p kickoff against a Miami team that has Tua back.  I expect the Dolphins to look like a totally different team than what we've seen with the various driftwood they've had starting at QB.  I'm pretty sure Miami sorta sucks, but Arizona has to be worse.  In this spot, if the Dolphins lose, they're done.  That coach is "fun guy" when they're a winning team.  If they go down in flames, he's going to look like a fucking clown.  Miami -4  

There are a couple of crappy teams that are getting too many points this week.  Carolina is getting 11 in Denver.  ELEVEN AGAINST A DENVER TEAM THAT CAN'T SCORE.  However, Bryce Young is getting the Panthers start, and he's burned me too many times.  I just can't do it.  I am out of the Panthers business.  A similar game is that Tennessee game where they're getting 11.5.  It's a great spot for the Titans, but I just don't know if I can do it.  That fuckstick Levis has jammed me up so many times, and even if Rudolf is starting it's not like I'm overbrimming with confidence.  "Mason Rudolf is starting on the road against the Lions.  Let me gather all my money and run to the betting window.", said No One Ever.  The Lions are coming off two really big games for them, a revenge game v Dallas and then last week vs the Vikings.  It's totally a flat spot, but the Titans?  Man...  Maybe I tease Tennessee up to 17.5?  I don't know...  

I'm going to take the Bengals at home -2.5 against the Eagles.  Philadelphia seems like a mess.  The coach is yelling at the fans.  The QB doesn't like the coach.  They can't score in the first half like they did last year which allowed them to play to their strengths and play from the lead.  If Cincinnati can win the first quarter, I think they'll win the game.  I'm still not sure if they're any good, but their losses are to good teams in close games.  Gimme Cincinnati -2.5.    

Current Record:  9-11

Student Bus Trips and NFL Week 7

 

I never went on the "Pre Teen school trip" that seems to be a right of passage for anyone in this region.  I don't know why they take kids around age 12 to DC and NY, but it must have been decided at an education seminar somewhere in the 1960s.  "You know what these kids need?  To stand in a group of 70 and stare at the Lincoln Monument!"  I remember my school had that trip, but I didn't go for some reason.  Though I didn't go on that trip, it was legendary as it created the Origin Story for the girl we all later knew at "Water Pik".  ( https://nursethehate.blogspot.com/2013/02/nurse-hate-waterpik-story.html ). 

I heard a great story from a guy this week about his school trip that went to New York.  At his school they took all the kids age 9-11.  Again, why anyone thinks it is a good idea to pack five charter buses filled with kids that age and take them with a short staff to get overstimulated somewhere away from their parents, I don't know.  His trip to New York had the added bonus of his father being one of the chaperones.  His father was a well known authority figure, the type that slightly raised his voice and even the wildest boys would settle the fuck down.  He asked his father recently why he decided to be a chaperone on that doomed voyage, and his father responded with "I knew it would be a shit show but I said "fuck it, I want to go to New York"."  

They did all the normal bullshit stuff that tourists do and no native New Yorkers ever do like go to the Statue of Liberty and stand on the aircraft carrier.  On their last day, the groups split up for a dinner before driving home through the night.  His bus went to an Italian restaurant which had been featured in some movie.  I'm assuming they didn't go to the one where Michael Corleone shot McCluskey in the head in The Godfather, but who the hell knows.  Anyway, the kids get fueled up on whatever they fed them, and they hit the road to go back to NE Ohio on a red eye drive.

It was about 1am when the first signs of trouble gurgled on the bus.  A small disturbance in the front of the bus.  What's that smell?  He looked to his left and saw his classmate Katie suddenly lurch forward, barfing on the seat in front of her.  His shoes started to slip on the floor as he sat in his seat as barf from the front rows of the bus started to slide back as the bus strained up a hill.  Suddenly he felt sick.  He barfed on himself, the seat and the window in front of him.  The entire bus of 9-11 year olds ALL had food poisoning.  It was like that Israeli synchronized pager explosion but in this case a bad lasagna used on 9 year old kids digestive systems.

I am struck with what Colonel Kurtz said in Apocalypse Now.  "The horror, the horror."  For some reason the father and the bus driver hadn't eaten the same thing the kids did.  They were the only two capable of attending to the entire busload of barfing kids.  They pulled over at a truck stop.  As most of the kids had puked all over themselves, they had to get out of their barf drenched clothes.  Sick mothers vainly tried to hold up jackets to provide an area for the girls in the class to change as they dry heaved themselves.  The bus driver, obviously thinking "I don't get paid enough to do this" pulled bags out from the luggage carrier as fast as he could.  Kids barfed randomly all across the parking lot.  Some stood sniffling and crying, dazed in the chaos.  It was a bloodbath. 

It reached a point where the triage had gone as far as it could.  The father, with a medical background, was the only one able to wipe up as much barf as he could with the truck stop window wash towels.  The kids, many now openly crying for their mothers, were loaded back into the reeking bus for another 4-5 hours of road.  My buddy sat back in his seat, feeling awful.  The bus started to move with a lurch, the smell of diesel wafting into the cabin.  It made him start to heave again.  His father grabbed his arm and much as you would to a dog yelled out the simple command, "NO!".  

I feel like I need a controlling figure like that in my life after I spent a weekend chasing my fortune sports gambling and having my money on Carolina, Patriots, Browns, and Giants.  What good could have possibly come from that?  What was I thinking?  Yet, the concept is that the bets that make you the most nervous are probably the best ones to make.  Yes, I'm jumping on another shit team.  Cleveland?  Are you out of your mind?  Sure, it's a divisional game and yes those tend to be close and YES Cleveland is getting a touchdown AT HOME, but I'd like to remind you that the last time someone played QB this badly in the NFL was 2010 and his name was Jimmy Claussen.  Watson is the second worst QB in modern NFL history at this point in the season.  IN HISTORY.  Yet, I can't take the Bengals on the road giving six.  I can't.

I already regret typing this out, but I'm taking Tennessee +9.5 at Buffalo.  I don't think the Bills are much better than average, and I think Tennessee is essentially average.  The one problem is they have Will Levis playing QB, and he's a fucking turnover machine.  If you need someone to make a soul crushing shit stupid pick six late in a game, Levis is your guy.  Why the Titans went "all in" on this guy is perplexing.  Here's the good news.  Levis is questionable this week and Mason Rudolf would start in his absence.  In a normal world you would sprint to the window to bet against Rudolf, but this is the 2024 Titans where this QB change is looked at as good news.  I'll take Tennessee +9.5 with the caveat of Rudolf starting.  They'll lose the game, but just sorta hang around.

If you want to make money, and I think you do, you need to be in a profit focused business.  Let me introduce you to a very lucrative business.  That is fading the New York Jets.  A number of people are still stuck on the fairy tale of Aaron Rodgers being the 35 year old version of himself instead of the rickety crank now playing for the Jets.  The desperate trade for a B+ receiver like Adams from the Raiders IS NOT the answer.  The Jets need three offensive linemen and a new offensive coordinator, not another receiver to be underthrown.  Why the public thinks the Jets are going to roll into Pittsburgh on a short week and win is beyond me.  I don't care who the Steelers QB is, give me Pittsburgh +2 at home.  

I'm not sure, but I think Green Bay might be really good.  I also think that Houston is closer to the team that almost missed the Playoffs than the preseason darlings they became.  Green Bay won four of their last five, the only loss a 2 pointer to an excellent Minnesota team.  That's the same team that scalped Houston 34-7.  The Texans best win was that 23-20 victory over a Bills team with a clearly concussed Josh Allen.  I think asking the Texans to go into Lambeau for a win over this Packer team is a tall order.  I'm on Green Bay -2.5.   

Current record:  8-9

  

The Jungle Gym and NFL Week 6

 

I was thinking the other day about the playground we had at school when I was in fourth grade.  There was a merry-go-round thing, a metal disc which spun with steel bars to hold onto as kids pushed it faster and faster.  If you spun off, you'd land on the safety of fresh blacktop asphalt as if you'd laid down a Harley at 55 mph.  We had a swing set which thankfully had wood chips underneath it, but was for some reason set up about three feet from that blacktop, which meant kids would routinely leap from the swings and fly off onto the pavement like they had been thrown from a Mustang convertible.  The crown jewel of the playground was a jungle gym, which was a half circle dome that seemed to be about 20 feet tall, but I'm guessing was still 10 feet.  I was nine years old, and I was scared shitless to climb up onto the top of it, a spot which routinely had the 3 or 4 daredevil kids holding court resplendent in the glory of laughing in the face of death.  

Why no adult thought it was an awful idea to build this thing and anchor it onto blacktop still blows my mind.  I mean, I was a kid and I was thinking "Who the fuck green lit this thing?".  I don't think 9 year olds are supposed to be thinking about insurance liabilities when looking at something that was assembled allegedly for fun, but that's the way it was.  Besides the tetherball area and foursquare scene, the only other point of interest was this ceramic fort that looked like Swiss Cheese, so we all called it "The Cheese".  Nobody went into The Cheese after an older teenage kid took a shit in it (believed to Ricky Shildnick, but unproven), so that was a no-fly zone.  

There was a kid named David that decided that his way to move up the social ladder was to climb the jungle gym peak.  Seriously, there were only four kids that routinely went up there because it was so fucking dangerous, but David for whatever reason thought this was his key to social status at Manchester Elementary.  There were two girls that always climbed it, so I think he was trying to impress them.  One became some sort of teenage gymnastics savant that later fucked her adult coach, which seemed to go well for all parties involved until her mother found out and then she recanted and the coach was sent off in disgrace.  (Men didn't go to prison for fucking 14 year olds then either due to societal norms or Pennsylvania state law, either reason being rather chilling).  The other girl became a helluva softball player, a "tomboy" in parlance of the times, which I think now we would easily identify as a lesbian who predictably was not impressed in the way David had hoped she would be upon his ascent on the jungle gym.  

Anyway, David discussed his plan one morning as we colored maps or whatever bullshit they had us doing, and it became quite a topic in Grade 4 as the news spread like wild fire.  I gotta hand it to him.  After lunch we had recess, and he went up to the top with a grim dedication I would rarely see later from adult men.  He knew he was pushing the envelope, but for whatever reason, he was going to see it through.  He made it.  But then, he fell.  When he fell head first onto the concrete, there was a certain grace to it.  His profile made a tragic image, like Icarus falling from the sun towards the earth.  I will always remember the dull thud sound his head made as it broke his fall.  I don't think many 9 year olds have seen that much blood.  It was a hell of a thing.  

That's just the way these things go sometimes.  Despite the best of intentions and planning, things just go south.  That's kind of what I see happening this week for a couple NFL teams.  There is a crazy trend that is hitting at 78% of backing teams that have been getting their ass kicked, only covering less than 20%, and then playing a winning team when they are 6+ points underdog.  The two teams that fit this bill are absolutely terrifying to back.  As I have always said, any bet that makes you immediately think "this is a huge mistake, I'm can't win this" is a great bet.  Do I want to be sitting on New England +7 and Carolina +6?  Of course not.  That's why they are rock solid bets!  

New England cannot score, is starting a rookie QB that will probably be out of football in 2 years, and generally is "bad at football".  However, Houston is not the monster team some thought they'd be and they have cluster injuries at WR.  This seems like a perfect letdown spot for Houston.  I'll take the points for New England +7 and hope they can do something on offense.  Carolina is really shitty, but Atlanta is horribly overrated.  3-2 Atlanta inched by Tampa and New Orleans these last two weeks, two average teams at best.  They lost to KC/Pitt and should have lost to Philly.  How are they laying 6 points to anyone on the road?  Carolina is 1-4 vs the spread.  There is no reason to think they cover this, but I'm thinking that they hang around at home in this one.  Carolina +6. 

October 22, 2023 is the last time the Eagles would have covered 8.5 points.  Look, the Browns are terrible because Deshaun Watson is like a Biblical plague that has nestled onto the franchise.  I don't see how he can lead the team to win this game.  I will tell you what though.  The Eagles aren't too good.  I am going to tease the Browns up to 14.5 and take the NY Giants +9.5 vs the Cincinnati Bengals.  This HAS TO BE a letdown spot for Cincinnati.  Look at their schedule...  They lose to Baltimore last week in a gut wrenching OT loss.  They keep scoring and can't win.  The Giants?  They might not be as bad as we think.  I think they might be an average football team.  I think the game vs Cincy can go either way.  Cleveland +14.4/Giants +9.5.

Current Record:  8-6  

The Land Bridge and NFL Week 5

Here in Cleveland, we have one of those "rah-rah" civic pride tourist facing organizations that try to rope people into coming to Cleveland and promote a positive narrative about the city.  I received a social media post this week about "The Land" (something no one that lives here ever called Cleveland prior to paid media messaging).  It had a photo of some band I've never seen playing at The Happy Dog and urged people to come here because of the vital music scene, like it was New Orleans in 1922.  This is a perfect encapsulation of what Cleveland does.  It willingly embraces the idea of "wouldn't it be great if it was like this?" instead of "Well, this is what we've got, so let's focus on that.". 

Almost every major rock tour detours Cleveland now as they have found it more profitable to play Columbus and make the hardcore NE Ohio fans of the act drive there, a strict reversal of historical precedent.  The bands that do stop here are almost always on "off" nights as they played their "important" shows in Chicago/Detroit on the weekend.  "Hey wanna go see that show?  It's Sunday night at 9?  I guess the band is doing a one off after playing the Klusterfuck Festival last weekend.".  I get the feeling that the people that put that Rocking In The Land campaign together have never actually been to a show that hasn't taken place in a 20,000 seat venue, and imagine club shows are like what are shown in teen movies.  I understand how that ad campaign came together in that meeting room.  "Kayla had a great idea.  You know how we have the Rock Hall?  We should tell everyone about all the rock music we have here!  Like we have SO MUCH!  I went to Billy Joel last month, and didn't Jaden go see that one country guy at Blossom?  I think Mark the IT guy is in a band too!  We should go see him play sometime."

What Cleveland is especially good at though is building things that no one needs or wants, and then pretends during the entire process that it will "revitalize" downtown despite the obvious flaws in the plan.  About 15 years ago they spent $465M on The Medical Mart.  Listen to how stupid this idea was...  The plan was to have a permanent showroom for medical devices located in downtown Cleveland.  People in the health industry would then flock here to have conventions and presumably sashay over to the Medical Mart in a state of glee.  You might be surprised to learn that the medical community continued to have their conventions in Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix because THERE IS GOOD WEATHER THERE AND PEOPLE WANT TO GO ON A BUSINESS PAID VACATION, NOT WANDER DOWN THE DESOLATE WINTER STREETS OF WINDSWEPT CLEVELAND.  Alas, the Medical Mart failed.

Now the big idea brewing is The Land Bridge.  What is the Land Bridge you ask?  Why it's "The North Coast Connector that is a game-changer for Cleveland and will have a lasting impact on our city’s economic growth and development,” Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said. “This land bridge will not only enhance connectivity between downtown and the lakefront but also create new opportunities for businesses, residents, and visitors alike."  Allow me to translate...  They want to spend $230M to make a park like bridge over Route 2 from the area known as Mall C over to "the Lakefront" (which means the football stadium and Harbor area).  Now, I just had a meeting with a guy over by Mall C.  There's nothing there but government buildings, a couple office towers and a Starbucks.  There is no reason for anyone not going to court to go anywhere near that area.  There is nothing there but paperwork and prison sentencing.  The good news is that if you do park there when they put The Land Bridge in, and let's say decide to walk your kid over to the Great Lakes Science Center, it's only a 25 minute walk.  Who doesn't want to trudge over a mile with a six year old as you get pelted by the wind in your face?

The real issue here is I missed out on the $3M grant for the "feasibility study".  The people that got paid that money obviously said, "Look, give us the $3M and we will tell you what you want to hear.".  They should have just given me the money.  I would have pocketed the cash and rolled in a month later.  "Hey, I looked into it, and it turns out that's a fucking stupid idea.  Why spend a quarter of a billion dollars to create a walkway from nowhere to a football stadium we use 8 times a year?  You think people are going to drive in from the suburbs to whip a frisbee around those spooky degenerates that will migrate over from Public Square?  It ain't gonna happen.  Let's drop that money into plowing that football stadium into the Lake.  Thank you.  Can I please have my check?"  It will happen anyway.  The best part will be whatever numbers get tossed around by the grifters that get this project going.  "We expect this to bring in $768M annually to the region as residents from across the globe will drive here to see the splendor of THE LAND BRIDGE!".

People see what they want to see I suppose.  That's sort of what I'm thinking when I look at the New York Jets.  I think there is a large group of people that have bought into the narrative of the Jets being a talent laden roster led by a monster Hall of Fame QB that was the missing piece of the puzzle.  When I look at the Jets I see a poorly run organization with a bad coach, overrated roster and old QB that doesn't want to get hit.  When I look at Minnesota I see a team that has three quality wins in a row, winning at Green Bay, trouncing Houston, and beating SF.  I look at the Jets and I see them losing to the Broncos despite the Broncos having minus seven yards passing at halftime.  Fuck the Jets. 

The Jets v Minnesota game is in London.  Minnesota is a well run team that probably strategized five different scenarios on how to best plan for the trip.  Some of the Jets staff might not know they were going to London until someone asked them if they remembered to bring their passport as they took an uber to the plane.  Look, I get it with Minnesota.  It's hard to buy-in on Sam Darnold winning games.  Remember, all I'm looking for on the Vikings side is for them to outcoach Bob Saleh, a guy that is in way over his head in New York.  Rodgers picked up a knee injury of some kind in that Broncos game, so he's not 100%.  This is one of those games where if the Jets lose in a big way, it's a "timber" moment where I think the season starts to get away from them and the local media attacks.  Those guys went all in on a Super Bowl push, and even to a casual observer this Jets team looks like The Same Old Jets.  Minnesota -2.5    

Until I see the Jacksonville Jaguars play well, I'm going to keep fading them.  This really feels like the game right before they sack the coach, bring in The New Guy, and win a couple games.  That situation is grim.  Doug Pederson seems like a horrible match for the culture there.  They signed Trevor Lawrence to a kazillion dollar extension despite the fact that he has fairly sucked for a couple years.  He's the Daniel Jones of the AFC.  The Jags already regret that Lawrence contract, but if they team sucks, you can't fire Lawrence.  Lawrence isn't good enough to win you games, but he can lose 'em for you.  If you're the Jags, why tie yourself down for the next half decade to a guy that doesn't seem to like football all that much?  I know the Jags have won ten straight from the Colts, but if Flacco starts, I'm on the Colts +2.5.    

This is a pretty basic handicap.  The San Francisco 49ers are one of the top 3 teams in the NFL.  The Arizona Cardinals blow.  The Cardinals killed the Rams when EVERYONE was hurt on the Rams, and they've been outplayed otherwise.  This has that "good team asserting dominance" vibe to it.  The 49ers are 2-2 after getting past their injuries.  Debo and Kittle are both back.  Trent Williams looks back in game shape.  I have some concern about the 49ers Super Bowl loss hangover, but to beat the 49ers the Cardinals need to throw downfield or get Murray running around out of the pocket, both of which will be hard to do.  49ers have a top offense.  Cards have a bottom 3 defense.  I don't like taking big favorites, but this is a division game at home.  The Niners need this game.  San Francisco -7.

Season Record:  6-5