The Election and Week 9

 

There is a Senate race going on in Ohio right now, which means tremendous amounts of money from both candidate's vested interests are pouring money into all of my devices to tell me how my two biggest concerns right now are immigrants (that are apparently exclusively Central American gang members intent on murdering young white women) and what appears to be middle aged men dressed as women competing in high school girls basketball.  Between us, I'm not really concerned about either issue.  If we can get some hard working immigrants to move to Ohio to do all the jobs our current population doesn't want to do, that would be great.  Also, I don't think that many 16 year old boys are chopping their genitals off to win a Ohio Southwestern Conference Girl's Basketball title.  If they are, that's the sort of dedication that I think maybe we should celebrate, not condemn.  I looked up how many trans people played high school girls basketball last year in Ohio.  It was seven.  There are about 12 million people in Ohio.  To me, this isn't one of our biggest problems, but based on the advertising spend, most other people that live here disagree with my assessment.  

I don't know how this election is going to shake out.  Either way, it's really depressing.  I've worked in advertising for the last 35 years.  The one thing that I have learned over that time that has stood out above everything else is that most people are complete fucking morons.  Here is how advertising works.  If something is repeated over and over, that becomes the truth.  Flim flam diet pills, reverse mortgage scams, time share hustles...  Most of us look at those and think "that's too good to be true".  Yet, there are a lotta rubes out there.  You remember Body Solutions?  It was this weight loss product which was touted to magically shed pounds off users with its secret formula (which was actually telling people to take Body Solutions after dinner and then not eat until breakfast, eliminating all their snacking calories).  They made $155M on their biggest year selling sugar water before the FTC shut it down.

We have about half the country right now that wants to buy political Body Solutions.  Problems like foreign policy, medical coverage, immigration, and the environment aren't even basically understood by the vast majority of the population.  If you don't understand why Russia invaded Ukraine, what NATO is and why it exists, and the ramifications of that military conflict on the global economy, it's easy to get pissed at Joe Biden because your gas at Speedway costs .85 cents more a gallon than what you think you remembered four years ago.  "I will end the war in Ukraine as soon as I get elected." isn't a plan. It's a Body Solutions ad.  

It's like people forgot how fucked up things were during the Trump Presidency.  If you're watching a lot of Fox News or listening to Bro Podcasts every week, it's easy to get convinced that you remembered everything wrong.  January 6th wasn't an insurrection.  It was a protest.  Trump didn't try to overturn the election.  It was stolen from him.  Once again, the principles of advertising, repeating a message over and over shows that it works.  About half the country can't wait to line up and hand over the country to a complete incompetent, someone his own handpicked advisors almost unanimously say "You can't give him power again.  He's fucking dangerous.".  It's amazing if it wasn't such an impending disaster.

When I look at the election, there are two quotes that come to mind.  One is from the great humor author David Sedaris who wrote about undecided voters in 2008, "To put them in perspective, I think​ of being​ on an airplane.​ The flight attendant comes​ down the aisle​ with her food cart and, eventually,​ parks​ it beside my seat.​ “Can I inter​est you in the chick​en?​” she asks.​ “Or would​ you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broke​n glass​ in it?”  To be undecided in this elect​ion is to pause​ for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.”  

The astounding thing about the Trump hardcore is that they have been completely duped by a conman yet again.  This is a serious time with some serious problems.  Trump is a 78 year old man trying to stay out of jail and is focused, as always, on his own personal gain.  Even the people in his inner circle got fucked on his last time in office.  Yet, there might be enough dipshits out there that aren't engaged enough to remember, sift through the media bubble they're in to figure out what reality looks like, and we will all get to take a ride on the bad impulses of a sociopath.  During this rise of MAGA, the United States has turned mean.  The great majority of people that I live near have a vibe of "Fuck You".  If you're in that Fox News/Tucker Carlson bubble the world keeps being presented as "They" are out to get "You".  It's hard to be decent when you think everyone you don't know is The Enemy.  In a way, I sort of hope for a Trump win so those people absorb the end result of the societal sorting of the "Fuck Yous" and the "I'm Fuckeds".  You better hope you get to be in charge of that sorting is all I can say.  When I think about a Trump victory on Tuesday, I think about H.L. Menken's quote "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

Talking about getting it good and hard, that's been my season so far with the NFL.  Whenever I feel like I have a sense of who is a good team, the NFL snow globe gets shaken up again and I realize I don't know anything.  I'm going back to basics on a couple of these.  Give me a good quarterback and a good coach, and that's a pretty decent chance of winning.  I'm looking at you Buffalo.  Miami is soft.  They don't have much of a pass rush, and they keep giving away leads.  If you don't rush Josh Allen, that guy will kill you.  I think Buffalo is one of the AFC elites teams (still), and this could be one of their annual Miami beatdowns.  Buffalo has beaten Miami 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Miami is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.  It's divisional so maybe it gets close, but Buffalo wins at home.  Buffalo money line split with Buffalo -6.    

Remember when it looked like Chicago was going to be the team they were hyped up to be all off season?  They won 3 in a row, and then lost that crazy Hail Mary against an apparently pretty good Commanders team.  Well... Those three wins were against an injured Rams team, Carolina and Jacksonville.  They've lost to the Texans, Colts and Commanders.  You know, Arizona is sort of like those three teams.  Arizona is 5-5 in their last 10 since Murray came back.  This is a Cardinal team that hung in with Buffalo on the road, lost a close low scoring game with the Lions, and beat SF/LA (both) and Miami.  I like Arizona -1 at home.

In what is the worst game of the year in the NFL, Tennessee takes on New England.  Both of these teams are atrocious but have average to slightly above average defenses.  I think my boy Mason Rudolph is starting for Tennessee, which means I considered betting Titans as I know he won't cause two turnovers that will force me to string together profanities into exciting new combinations like when Will Levis starts.  However, I think the more compelling bet is New England team total under 17.5.  There are two things I know about Jacoby Brissett.  1.  He doesn't take a lot of chances and will avoid turnovers.  2.  Because he doesn't take chances, he also doesn't score points, especially since New England has no running game to speak of.  I thought about going game under, but why not dial in on what I feel strongest about... a conservative New England team that really sucks.  New England UNDER 17.5   UPDATE:  Drake Maye cleared concussion protocol and will start, so I am dumping out of this.  

How is Carolina going to win another game?  The Panthers are a great example of what happens when someone from another line of business decides he can step in and be The Man in the NFL.  They have no roster, no coaching, and no will to continue.  There is a joy to see these Hedge Fund guys flame out.  Carolina is 1-9 ATS in their last 10.  They have one good game all year and Bryce Young is going to go under center this week to extinguish all hope.  Derek Carr is back, and it will be enough.  New Orleans money line and New Orleans -7 split.  

Current Record:  10-13

Trouble For The Land Bridge and NFL Week 8

 

I have great concern about the great Land Bridge project.  I had planned on spending most of my time just hanging out on The Land Bridge with an occasional frisbee toss with all the other folks congregating there, but now that seems uncertain.  The good folks in the Haslam Family, pillars in the community really, have decided to sue the city of Cleveland to get out of the contract they knowingly entered into with the city when purchasing the team.  Part of the deal with owning a pro sports franchise in Ohio is that after Art Modell pulled the team out into Baltimore, the state passed a law to prevent that from happening again.  It prohibits Ohio-based pro teams that use a “tax-supported facility for most of its home games” and that “receive financial assistance” from playing home games “elsewhere.” Compliance with the law requires (among other things) a team to receive government consent and offer the team for sale to local buyers. 

The Haslam Family, just a super group of folks, bought the team for $1B in 2012.  The team is now valued at $5B.  They play in a publicly funded stadium that taxpayers paid for, and made $94M in profit last year.  They came up with a little scheme which they unveiled with great fanfare to build a "complex" out by the airport that will include a domed stadium and "retail space" (which I assume means a Browns team shop, some shitty chain restaurants, and maybe a Lids location).  The great news is that this stadium will just be an economic windfall for ALL OF US, so all we need to do is give the Haslams $1B that they won't pay back and not make them pay tax on the money they make there.  The great news is that they have assured the public via their press announcement of this project that it will be a regional WONDERLAND with 70 events a year.  10 Browns games, a Taylor Swift type show, maybe Billy Joel or the Stones will keep going, and ahh...ahh... ahh...  Well, that seems like it adds up to 70, so it's fine.  

Normally I'd say, "Fuck you guys.  You made $4B in 12 years and you're clearing $100M a year in profits.  Build that fiasco yourselves.".  However, they knew when they bought the team what the deal was... You have a team that has to play their games in the city of Cleveland.  That's the deal.  But is $4B in profit enough?  Nope.  Time to employ an army of lawyers and see if you can weasel out of the deal, somehow jam the public into building a sure-fire economic loser, con your way into developing the lakefront land you left behind, and continue to put the worst winning percentage team in major American sports onto the field for everyone's trouble.  Who are these people and what happened to their souls?  "We need another $1B, so let's jam the city that has made us this rich and see if we can take the money they already don't have away from infrastructure, schools and social services.  After that I can get cracking on making more genius football moves."  They are the absolute worst. 

That being said, I am nervously taking the Browns this week.  The Browns are totally fucked.  They have no QB, no money to get a new one in the next three years, have all kinds of offensive line problems, and don't have any impact players on offense.  However, I have to think that ANYONE is going to bring more to the table than DeShaun Watson for the offense.  Look, the team knew way before the rest of us that Watson didn't want to play football any longer, he just wanted to go shopping.  There has to be a sigh of relief from the entire building when Watson was gone.  This is a great spot for the Browns to get that "first game now that the problem is gone" lift from Winston against a poor Ravens pass defense.  I can't see the Browns winning, but I think they can keep a divisional opponent within one score at home.  I got on this early.  Cleveland +9.5

Arizona is on a short week, on the road, West Coast going to East Coast for a 1p kickoff against a Miami team that has Tua back.  I expect the Dolphins to look like a totally different team than what we've seen with the various driftwood they've had starting at QB.  I'm pretty sure Miami sorta sucks, but Arizona has to be worse.  In this spot, if the Dolphins lose, they're done.  That coach is "fun guy" when they're a winning team.  If they go down in flames, he's going to look like a fucking clown.  Miami -4  

There are a couple of crappy teams that are getting too many points this week.  Carolina is getting 11 in Denver.  ELEVEN AGAINST A DENVER TEAM THAT CAN'T SCORE.  However, Bryce Young is getting the Panthers start, and he's burned me too many times.  I just can't do it.  I am out of the Panthers business.  A similar game is that Tennessee game where they're getting 11.5.  It's a great spot for the Titans, but I just don't know if I can do it.  That fuckstick Levis has jammed me up so many times, and even if Rudolf is starting it's not like I'm overbrimming with confidence.  "Mason Rudolf is starting on the road against the Lions.  Let me gather all my money and run to the betting window.", said No One Ever.  The Lions are coming off two really big games for them, a revenge game v Dallas and then last week vs the Vikings.  It's totally a flat spot, but the Titans?  Man...  Maybe I tease Tennessee up to 17.5?  I don't know...  

I'm going to take the Bengals at home -2.5 against the Eagles.  Philadelphia seems like a mess.  The coach is yelling at the fans.  The QB doesn't like the coach.  They can't score in the first half like they did last year which allowed them to play to their strengths and play from the lead.  If Cincinnati can win the first quarter, I think they'll win the game.  I'm still not sure if they're any good, but their losses are to good teams in close games.  Gimme Cincinnati -2.5.    

Current Record:  9-11

Student Bus Trips and NFL Week 7

 

I never went on the "Pre Teen school trip" that seems to be a right of passage for anyone in this region.  I don't know why they take kids around age 12 to DC and NY, but it must have been decided at an education seminar somewhere in the 1960s.  "You know what these kids need?  To stand in a group of 70 and stare at the Lincoln Monument!"  I remember my school had that trip, but I didn't go for some reason.  Though I didn't go on that trip, it was legendary as it created the Origin Story for the girl we all later knew at "Water Pik".  ( https://nursethehate.blogspot.com/2013/02/nurse-hate-waterpik-story.html ). 

I heard a great story from a guy this week about his school trip that went to New York.  At his school they took all the kids age 9-11.  Again, why anyone thinks it is a good idea to pack five charter buses filled with kids that age and take them with a short staff to get overstimulated somewhere away from their parents, I don't know.  His trip to New York had the added bonus of his father being one of the chaperones.  His father was a well known authority figure, the type that slightly raised his voice and even the wildest boys would settle the fuck down.  He asked his father recently why he decided to be a chaperone on that doomed voyage, and his father responded with "I knew it would be a shit show but I said "fuck it, I want to go to New York"."  

They did all the normal bullshit stuff that tourists do and no native New Yorkers ever do like go to the Statue of Liberty and stand on the aircraft carrier.  On their last day, the groups split up for a dinner before driving home through the night.  His bus went to an Italian restaurant which had been featured in some movie.  I'm assuming they didn't go to the one where Michael Corleone shot McCluskey in the head in The Godfather, but who the hell knows.  Anyway, the kids get fueled up on whatever they fed them, and they hit the road to go back to NE Ohio on a red eye drive.

It was about 1am when the first signs of trouble gurgled on the bus.  A small disturbance in the front of the bus.  What's that smell?  He looked to his left and saw his classmate Katie suddenly lurch forward, barfing on the seat in front of her.  His shoes started to slip on the floor as he sat in his seat as barf from the front rows of the bus started to slide back as the bus strained up a hill.  Suddenly he felt sick.  He barfed on himself, the seat and the window in front of him.  The entire bus of 9-11 year olds ALL had food poisoning.  It was like that Israeli synchronized pager explosion but in this case a bad lasagna used on 9 year old kids digestive systems.

I am struck with what Colonel Kurtz said in Apocalypse Now.  "The horror, the horror."  For some reason the father and the bus driver hadn't eaten the same thing the kids did.  They were the only two capable of attending to the entire busload of barfing kids.  They pulled over at a truck stop.  As most of the kids had puked all over themselves, they had to get out of their barf drenched clothes.  Sick mothers vainly tried to hold up jackets to provide an area for the girls in the class to change as they dry heaved themselves.  The bus driver, obviously thinking "I don't get paid enough to do this" pulled bags out from the luggage carrier as fast as he could.  Kids barfed randomly all across the parking lot.  Some stood sniffling and crying, dazed in the chaos.  It was a bloodbath. 

It reached a point where the triage had gone as far as it could.  The father, with a medical background, was the only one able to wipe up as much barf as he could with the truck stop window wash towels.  The kids, many now openly crying for their mothers, were loaded back into the reeking bus for another 4-5 hours of road.  My buddy sat back in his seat, feeling awful.  The bus started to move with a lurch, the smell of diesel wafting into the cabin.  It made him start to heave again.  His father grabbed his arm and much as you would to a dog yelled out the simple command, "NO!".  

I feel like I need a controlling figure like that in my life after I spent a weekend chasing my fortune sports gambling and having my money on Carolina, Patriots, Browns, and Giants.  What good could have possibly come from that?  What was I thinking?  Yet, the concept is that the bets that make you the most nervous are probably the best ones to make.  Yes, I'm jumping on another shit team.  Cleveland?  Are you out of your mind?  Sure, it's a divisional game and yes those tend to be close and YES Cleveland is getting a touchdown AT HOME, but I'd like to remind you that the last time someone played QB this badly in the NFL was 2010 and his name was Jimmy Claussen.  Watson is the second worst QB in modern NFL history at this point in the season.  IN HISTORY.  Yet, I can't take the Bengals on the road giving six.  I can't.

I already regret typing this out, but I'm taking Tennessee +9.5 at Buffalo.  I don't think the Bills are much better than average, and I think Tennessee is essentially average.  The one problem is they have Will Levis playing QB, and he's a fucking turnover machine.  If you need someone to make a soul crushing shit stupid pick six late in a game, Levis is your guy.  Why the Titans went "all in" on this guy is perplexing.  Here's the good news.  Levis is questionable this week and Mason Rudolf would start in his absence.  In a normal world you would sprint to the window to bet against Rudolf, but this is the 2024 Titans where this QB change is looked at as good news.  I'll take Tennessee +9.5 with the caveat of Rudolf starting.  They'll lose the game, but just sorta hang around.

If you want to make money, and I think you do, you need to be in a profit focused business.  Let me introduce you to a very lucrative business.  That is fading the New York Jets.  A number of people are still stuck on the fairy tale of Aaron Rodgers being the 35 year old version of himself instead of the rickety crank now playing for the Jets.  The desperate trade for a B+ receiver like Adams from the Raiders IS NOT the answer.  The Jets need three offensive linemen and a new offensive coordinator, not another receiver to be underthrown.  Why the public thinks the Jets are going to roll into Pittsburgh on a short week and win is beyond me.  I don't care who the Steelers QB is, give me Pittsburgh +2 at home.  

I'm not sure, but I think Green Bay might be really good.  I also think that Houston is closer to the team that almost missed the Playoffs than the preseason darlings they became.  Green Bay won four of their last five, the only loss a 2 pointer to an excellent Minnesota team.  That's the same team that scalped Houston 34-7.  The Texans best win was that 23-20 victory over a Bills team with a clearly concussed Josh Allen.  I think asking the Texans to go into Lambeau for a win over this Packer team is a tall order.  I'm on Green Bay -2.5.   

Current record:  8-9

  

The Jungle Gym and NFL Week 6

 

I was thinking the other day about the playground we had at school when I was in fourth grade.  There was a merry-go-round thing, a metal disc which spun with steel bars to hold onto as kids pushed it faster and faster.  If you spun off, you'd land on the safety of fresh blacktop asphalt as if you'd laid down a Harley at 55 mph.  We had a swing set which thankfully had wood chips underneath it, but was for some reason set up about three feet from that blacktop, which meant kids would routinely leap from the swings and fly off onto the pavement like they had been thrown from a Mustang convertible.  The crown jewel of the playground was a jungle gym, which was a half circle dome that seemed to be about 20 feet tall, but I'm guessing was still 10 feet.  I was nine years old, and I was scared shitless to climb up onto the top of it, a spot which routinely had the 3 or 4 daredevil kids holding court resplendent in the glory of laughing in the face of death.  

Why no adult thought it was an awful idea to build this thing and anchor it onto blacktop still blows my mind.  I mean, I was a kid and I was thinking "Who the fuck green lit this thing?".  I don't think 9 year olds are supposed to be thinking about insurance liabilities when looking at something that was assembled allegedly for fun, but that's the way it was.  Besides the tetherball area and foursquare scene, the only other point of interest was this ceramic fort that looked like Swiss Cheese, so we all called it "The Cheese".  Nobody went into The Cheese after an older teenage kid took a shit in it (believed to Ricky Shildnick, but unproven), so that was a no-fly zone.  

There was a kid named David that decided that his way to move up the social ladder was to climb the jungle gym peak.  Seriously, there were only four kids that routinely went up there because it was so fucking dangerous, but David for whatever reason thought this was his key to social status at Manchester Elementary.  There were two girls that always climbed it, so I think he was trying to impress them.  One became some sort of teenage gymnastics savant that later fucked her adult coach, which seemed to go well for all parties involved until her mother found out and then she recanted and the coach was sent off in disgrace.  (Men didn't go to prison for fucking 14 year olds then either due to societal norms or Pennsylvania state law, either reason being rather chilling).  The other girl became a helluva softball player, a "tomboy" in parlance of the times, which I think now we would easily identify as a lesbian who predictably was not impressed in the way David had hoped she would be upon his ascent on the jungle gym.  

Anyway, David discussed his plan one morning as we colored maps or whatever bullshit they had us doing, and it became quite a topic in Grade 4 as the news spread like wild fire.  I gotta hand it to him.  After lunch we had recess, and he went up to the top with a grim dedication I would rarely see later from adult men.  He knew he was pushing the envelope, but for whatever reason, he was going to see it through.  He made it.  But then, he fell.  When he fell head first onto the concrete, there was a certain grace to it.  His profile made a tragic image, like Icarus falling from the sun towards the earth.  I will always remember the dull thud sound his head made as it broke his fall.  I don't think many 9 year olds have seen that much blood.  It was a hell of a thing.  

That's just the way these things go sometimes.  Despite the best of intentions and planning, things just go south.  That's kind of what I see happening this week for a couple NFL teams.  There is a crazy trend that is hitting at 78% of backing teams that have been getting their ass kicked, only covering less than 20%, and then playing a winning team when they are 6+ points underdog.  The two teams that fit this bill are absolutely terrifying to back.  As I have always said, any bet that makes you immediately think "this is a huge mistake, I'm can't win this" is a great bet.  Do I want to be sitting on New England +7 and Carolina +6?  Of course not.  That's why they are rock solid bets!  

New England cannot score, is starting a rookie QB that will probably be out of football in 2 years, and generally is "bad at football".  However, Houston is not the monster team some thought they'd be and they have cluster injuries at WR.  This seems like a perfect letdown spot for Houston.  I'll take the points for New England +7 and hope they can do something on offense.  Carolina is really shitty, but Atlanta is horribly overrated.  3-2 Atlanta inched by Tampa and New Orleans these last two weeks, two average teams at best.  They lost to KC/Pitt and should have lost to Philly.  How are they laying 6 points to anyone on the road?  Carolina is 1-4 vs the spread.  There is no reason to think they cover this, but I'm thinking that they hang around at home in this one.  Carolina +6. 

October 22, 2023 is the last time the Eagles would have covered 8.5 points.  Look, the Browns are terrible because Deshaun Watson is like a Biblical plague that has nestled onto the franchise.  I don't see how he can lead the team to win this game.  I will tell you what though.  The Eagles aren't too good.  I am going to tease the Browns up to 14.5 and take the NY Giants +9.5 vs the Cincinnati Bengals.  This HAS TO BE a letdown spot for Cincinnati.  Look at their schedule...  They lose to Baltimore last week in a gut wrenching OT loss.  They keep scoring and can't win.  The Giants?  They might not be as bad as we think.  I think they might be an average football team.  I think the game vs Cincy can go either way.  Cleveland +14.4/Giants +9.5.

Current Record:  8-6  

The Land Bridge and NFL Week 5

Here in Cleveland, we have one of those "rah-rah" civic pride tourist facing organizations that try to rope people into coming to Cleveland and promote a positive narrative about the city.  I received a social media post this week about "The Land" (something no one that lives here ever called Cleveland prior to paid media messaging).  It had a photo of some band I've never seen playing at The Happy Dog and urged people to come here because of the vital music scene, like it was New Orleans in 1922.  This is a perfect encapsulation of what Cleveland does.  It willingly embraces the idea of "wouldn't it be great if it was like this?" instead of "Well, this is what we've got, so let's focus on that.". 

Almost every major rock tour detours Cleveland now as they have found it more profitable to play Columbus and make the hardcore NE Ohio fans of the act drive there, a strict reversal of historical precedent.  The bands that do stop here are almost always on "off" nights as they played their "important" shows in Chicago/Detroit on the weekend.  "Hey wanna go see that show?  It's Sunday night at 9?  I guess the band is doing a one off after playing the Klusterfuck Festival last weekend.".  I get the feeling that the people that put that Rocking In The Land campaign together have never actually been to a show that hasn't taken place in a 20,000 seat venue, and imagine club shows are like what are shown in teen movies.  I understand how that ad campaign came together in that meeting room.  "Kayla had a great idea.  You know how we have the Rock Hall?  We should tell everyone about all the rock music we have here!  Like we have SO MUCH!  I went to Billy Joel last month, and didn't Jaden go see that one country guy at Blossom?  I think Mark the IT guy is in a band too!  We should go see him play sometime."

What Cleveland is especially good at though is building things that no one needs or wants, and then pretends during the entire process that it will "revitalize" downtown despite the obvious flaws in the plan.  About 15 years ago they spent $465M on The Medical Mart.  Listen to how stupid this idea was...  The plan was to have a permanent showroom for medical devices located in downtown Cleveland.  People in the health industry would then flock here to have conventions and presumably sashay over to the Medical Mart in a state of glee.  You might be surprised to learn that the medical community continued to have their conventions in Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix because THERE IS GOOD WEATHER THERE AND PEOPLE WANT TO GO ON A BUSINESS PAID VACATION, NOT WANDER DOWN THE DESOLATE WINTER STREETS OF WINDSWEPT CLEVELAND.  Alas, the Medical Mart failed.

Now the big idea brewing is The Land Bridge.  What is the Land Bridge you ask?  Why it's "The North Coast Connector that is a game-changer for Cleveland and will have a lasting impact on our city’s economic growth and development,” Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said. “This land bridge will not only enhance connectivity between downtown and the lakefront but also create new opportunities for businesses, residents, and visitors alike."  Allow me to translate...  They want to spend $230M to make a park like bridge over Route 2 from the area known as Mall C over to "the Lakefront" (which means the football stadium and Harbor area).  Now, I just had a meeting with a guy over by Mall C.  There's nothing there but government buildings, a couple office towers and a Starbucks.  There is no reason for anyone not going to court to go anywhere near that area.  There is nothing there but paperwork and prison sentencing.  The good news is that if you do park there when they put The Land Bridge in, and let's say decide to walk your kid over to the Great Lakes Science Center, it's only a 25 minute walk.  Who doesn't want to trudge over a mile with a six year old as you get pelted by the wind in your face?

The real issue here is I missed out on the $3M grant for the "feasibility study".  The people that got paid that money obviously said, "Look, give us the $3M and we will tell you what you want to hear.".  They should have just given me the money.  I would have pocketed the cash and rolled in a month later.  "Hey, I looked into it, and it turns out that's a fucking stupid idea.  Why spend a quarter of a billion dollars to create a walkway from nowhere to a football stadium we use 8 times a year?  You think people are going to drive in from the suburbs to whip a frisbee around those spooky degenerates that will migrate over from Public Square?  It ain't gonna happen.  Let's drop that money into plowing that football stadium into the Lake.  Thank you.  Can I please have my check?"  It will happen anyway.  The best part will be whatever numbers get tossed around by the grifters that get this project going.  "We expect this to bring in $768M annually to the region as residents from across the globe will drive here to see the splendor of THE LAND BRIDGE!".

People see what they want to see I suppose.  That's sort of what I'm thinking when I look at the New York Jets.  I think there is a large group of people that have bought into the narrative of the Jets being a talent laden roster led by a monster Hall of Fame QB that was the missing piece of the puzzle.  When I look at the Jets I see a poorly run organization with a bad coach, overrated roster and old QB that doesn't want to get hit.  When I look at Minnesota I see a team that has three quality wins in a row, winning at Green Bay, trouncing Houston, and beating SF.  I look at the Jets and I see them losing to the Broncos despite the Broncos having minus seven yards passing at halftime.  Fuck the Jets. 

The Jets v Minnesota game is in London.  Minnesota is a well run team that probably strategized five different scenarios on how to best plan for the trip.  Some of the Jets staff might not know they were going to London until someone asked them if they remembered to bring their passport as they took an uber to the plane.  Look, I get it with Minnesota.  It's hard to buy-in on Sam Darnold winning games.  Remember, all I'm looking for on the Vikings side is for them to outcoach Bob Saleh, a guy that is in way over his head in New York.  Rodgers picked up a knee injury of some kind in that Broncos game, so he's not 100%.  This is one of those games where if the Jets lose in a big way, it's a "timber" moment where I think the season starts to get away from them and the local media attacks.  Those guys went all in on a Super Bowl push, and even to a casual observer this Jets team looks like The Same Old Jets.  Minnesota -2.5    

Until I see the Jacksonville Jaguars play well, I'm going to keep fading them.  This really feels like the game right before they sack the coach, bring in The New Guy, and win a couple games.  That situation is grim.  Doug Pederson seems like a horrible match for the culture there.  They signed Trevor Lawrence to a kazillion dollar extension despite the fact that he has fairly sucked for a couple years.  He's the Daniel Jones of the AFC.  The Jags already regret that Lawrence contract, but if they team sucks, you can't fire Lawrence.  Lawrence isn't good enough to win you games, but he can lose 'em for you.  If you're the Jags, why tie yourself down for the next half decade to a guy that doesn't seem to like football all that much?  I know the Jags have won ten straight from the Colts, but if Flacco starts, I'm on the Colts +2.5.    

This is a pretty basic handicap.  The San Francisco 49ers are one of the top 3 teams in the NFL.  The Arizona Cardinals blow.  The Cardinals killed the Rams when EVERYONE was hurt on the Rams, and they've been outplayed otherwise.  This has that "good team asserting dominance" vibe to it.  The 49ers are 2-2 after getting past their injuries.  Debo and Kittle are both back.  Trent Williams looks back in game shape.  I have some concern about the 49ers Super Bowl loss hangover, but to beat the 49ers the Cardinals need to throw downfield or get Murray running around out of the pocket, both of which will be hard to do.  49ers have a top offense.  Cards have a bottom 3 defense.  I don't like taking big favorites, but this is a division game at home.  The Niners need this game.  San Francisco -7.

Season Record:  6-5

Altamont and NFL Week 4

 

There must have been something with the moon or Mercury was in a phase.  There was a weird edge to the scene at the gig in New Philly last night.  I'm not someone that goes in for that "phases of the moon" shit to explain away behavior, but maybe there's something to it.  You know how sometimes if you walk into a room and it just feels like something minor could set it off?  It must be the animal instincts we still hold within us.  Having played gigs in clubs for too long, I can usually tell if that guy is someone you need to keep an eye on, the junkyard dog of the pack.  This was different.  It was more of a "keep an eye on those guys" vibe.  

We played a couple of sets, and the crowd wasn't particularly engaged with the first one.  We played a lot of new material that isn't in the Muscle Memory Zone yet, more in the "I think it goes like that" tentative phase.  That didn't help.  It also didn't help that the sound guy was breaking in new gear and our on stage sound would vary wildly between a throbbing hum just short of a painful whistle and dropping out completely.  Think of it as having to give a Best Man's speech while someone right next to you kept fucking around with the TV on as loud as it could possibly get.  I thought we played OK, but who knows what it sounded like out there.

Anyway, we play a second set and we're clicked in pretty well.  There's more back and forth with The People.  We are getting down to the bottom part of the setlist, and in the middle of a song I see a commotion.  Some guy is shoving another guy and then his friends shove that guy so some other guys start grabbing them.  It's this ballooning mass of dudes being shoved towards the stage.  Then, out of nowhere from my left, I see this woman crack a bottle over one of these dude's heads.  Glass and foam spray everywhere.  It's like she just decided to jump into it though it didn't look like she had a dog in the fight.  Some would have been concerned that things had gone completely out of control.  I was not.

What immediately popped into my head was all the stage dialogue from the Rolling Stones Altamont disaster.  In a sense, I had prepared my entire life to make this one joke.  Now granted, I knew that only a small portion of people standing there would get this joke, but to them it would be VERY funny.  To me it would be VERY VERY funny.  Frankly, this is the entire reason to be in a niche rock band.  These brief moments are the reward for all the toil.  Telling myself jokes as the junkyard dog guys fought each other is perhaps the sweetest treat of all.

Brothers and sisters...  Who's fighting and what for?  Who's fighting and what for?  Brothers and sisters...  Why are we fighting?  Why are we fighting?  (At this point I switched to do the Richards part).  If that cat RIGHT THERE don't stop it man, we ain't playing.

If you somehow have never watched the "Gimme Shelter" documentary on the Rolling Stones 1969 tour, I cannot recommend it any more highly.  It is absolutely compulsory viewing.  Looking at how genuinely half assed enormous rock shows were being put on, the doe eyed attitudes of people in the scene, and the America that is so far gone yet so familiar makes it riveting.  The Altamont scenes alone are stunning.  I'm always surprised when I meet someone that's into music/counterculture that hasn't digested the film.  That being said, I will note that at this point Sugar was wondering why I suddenly was speaking with a bad British accent.  I also assume that most of the people standing there had no idea why I was saying any of these things as this brawl ensued, but I will say that for myself and the three other people I saw genuinely laughing hard, it was all worth it.  

Sometimes you have to take a path that looks a little rocky.  That's what I'm going to do today when I jump on the Cincinnati Bengals -4.  Look, an 0-3 team that looks like absolute shit yet is somehow favored on the road seems like a terrible idea to get behind.  I get it.  The Bengals defense is eye wateringly awful, unable to even put up loose resistance to the Washington Commanders.  That is what savvy NFL viewers would call "troubling".  Yet, this was a team that was supposed to win 10 games.  They aren't going 0-17.  They have to win at some point.  Why not against a Carolina team that won their first game last week since The Great Depression?  Let's be honest with ourselves.  The end of The Bryce Young era to embark on The Andy Dalton Era is not going to dramatically change the Panthers fortunes.  While Dalton is a professional football player as opposed to Bryce Young who looked like a high school kid tasked to compete with men, he's still Andy Dalton.   Andy Dalton is an amazing choice for a team that wants to take the ball from their 20 to the other team's 20 and then somehow not score any points.  I think the Bengals win what is sure to be a shitty game.  

Most of the games today are a wilderness of mirrors.  I'm not sure why almost all the key players in the league are already hurt.  It could be that football is insanely dangerous.  Maybe that's it.  Normally I'd be all over the Rams vs the Bears as it appears the City of Chicago has come to realize they took the wrong guy at #1.  However, EVERYONE on the Rams is hurt.  Can Miami beat that piece of shit Tennessee team with a guy they signed off the street to play QB?  I can't go the other way on that.  I'm sure as shit not putting money on any team that Will Levis is involved in.  You want to take SF to cover 10.5 with "some guy" playing WR and "some other guy" playing TE?  I'm not.  How about Jordan Love gimping out onto the field to play the Vikings?  Seems like Justin Herbert is going to try to play with his fucked up feet.  I have no clue if those guys can move.  The injuries make this impossible to handicap.  Yet, I'm oddly compelled to bet this Browns v Raiders game despite the fact that anyone a casual fan has ever heard of is injured.

The key to that game is Deshaun Watson IS NOT injured and WILL NOT be injured after he noted that he has no intention of running the ball, and plans on limiting any contact while he's on the field.  That's bad news to Browns fans as he cannot complete passes longer than 10 yards and also seems to be completely indifferent to that reality.  I am not blind to the fact that the Raiders are terrible, have their best two players on the injury list, and are imploding after their largely incompetent head coach called the team out after last week's loss.  The Browns cannot be counted on to cover a spread versus anyone, much less on the road.  You know that you're QB is killing you when the first thought when looking at the game is "Minshew is the better player".  I'm on the Raiders +2.5.    

I know Jacksonville +5.5 is probably the best side, but I just can't do it.  I work too hard for my money to get Doug Pederson involved in my finances.  The same thing with the Colts with the points.  Richardson is the Russell Branyon of NFL players.  One long home run and 57 consecutive strike outs.  Seattle +3.5 seems reasonable too.  Bills v Ravens?  Fuck if I know.  I'm just not feeling any of these other games at this point.  Time to live to fight another day.

Current record:  4-5       

Evan Dando and NFL Week 3

 

I went to see The Lemonheads this week.  It's been 30 years since I have seen that band play.  Thanks to the Google Machine, I discovered I went to see them in 1994 at Kent State University in a room where I believe I had taken a Sociology class.  I went with this girl on a whim.  I had a great time.  She did not as I never saw her in person again.  I don't think I did anything terrible, but I think my enthusiasm for that show might have made her ask herself, "Do I see my values aligned with this fucking guy?".  That answer was apparently "no".  It was odd to see a rock show where I had listened to Sociology exams.  It reminded me of this helpful tip.  If you are ever in a Sociology exam, there's a pretty good chance the answer to whatever question you're asked is going to be "Skinner" or "Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs".  You're welcome.  

One of my associates asked me to go to this 2024 Lemonheads show, and as I had corralled him into an outstanding show from The Hives/Bad Nerves, I figured it was fair that I go to that Lemonheads gig.  The Lemonheads are known for two records they made in the early 1990s, when "Alternative Rock" became re-pitched to The Public as "Modern Rock".  I really like the Lemonheads records from that period where they had a jangly melody supported by scruffy punk rock energy.  There's some really good songs on those, but I think some dudes from that time period got put off by the corporate effort to cash in on Evan Dando's good looks.  Dando always projected out this barefoot groovy Man Boy East Coast Boarding School Party Bro thing, but it certainly worked for him, so God Bless 'Em.  

Dando is for all intents and purposes The Lemonheads as he's had 43 band members over the years.  I know that looks like some bullshit thing I made up, but that's what an article I read said so I'm repeating it and I'm too lazy to fact check it.  It seems right to me because the main subject that is associated with Dando in the last 30 years is "drug problem".  One thing history has shown is that guys with drug problems often have great difficulty keeping bands together as instead of writing new songs and engaging with your collaborators in your band you are, of course, doing lots of drugs and spending your time focused on getting more drugs.  However, I had seen some video from last year of a Lemonheads gig and it sounded pretty good.  I went in with cautious optimism.

It was not a good sign when Dando came out to deal with his gear before the set and he looked very disheveled.  I'm not talking "sorta sloppy" like a 26 year old can pull off disheveled.  I'm talking more along the lines of "creepy drifter".  On top of that, he seemed out of it.  This wasn't the look of a music pro getting ready to deliver a solid set.  This was the look of a guy that knew he walked out on the stage to do something but he couldn't quite remember what.  Then the show started.

I don't know if you've seen video of The Heartbreakers when Johnny Thunders was in his full "doomed angel flying too close to the sun" mode, but this was a late middle aged guy with a thickening midsection trying the same look on.  Anyone with a shred of empathy looked on stage and thought "Man, that guy needs help.".  He missed cues, slurred vocals, stared off in space, and abandoned songs midway through.  Now, there are probably some people that will want to wrap their arms around that and say some bullshit rock n roll myth like "that's so punk rock".  No, it wasn't.  It was a guy that was sick who looked like he might not wake up tomorrow.  

If you get down to it, it would have been better for all of us if we had just swung by the club and given him a couple of $20s so he could just go buy drugs.  He could have gotten his drug money and we could have saved ourselves the time watching that car crash.  I've seen a lot of rock guys play under the influence of whatever.  Hell, I've been one of those guys.  But I can't ever remember seeing someone on stage that fucked up and not in control.  He talked between songs every 20 minutes or so, and it was unintelligible.  I'm not saying the words couldn't be understood.  I'm saying that the words didn't fit together.  Example:  "Popeye Olive Oil garbage can.  Hitler.  Cleveland socket wrench standing sunset."  It was unsettling, not in an Andy Kaufman "clever performance art" piece way, but more in a "what the fuck is that guy on?' way.  On the upside, when they took a break mid-set for about 15 minutes, whatever stimulants they'd just taken in the dressing room perked everyone up for a few songs before the wheels came off again.

It was right before the end of the thing when he played a country song.  Goddamn the guy fucking nailed it.  Killer vocal and the band was in the pocket.  Depending on your point of view, it made the night better because the song was so good, OR it made the night that much worse because you could see how much the man had thrown away.  Self destruction sells tickets I guess.  I assume Dando and his merry band of parasitic enablers jumped in the van to the next town and the next score.  Good luck boys.

Speaking of luck, I could really use a turnaround this week.  That Giants handicap last week was right on, but they somehow get the kicker injured on the first play and couldn't kick field goals for the rest of the game and thus lose.  I get the idea that punting and kicking are two different skills, but wouldn't you think a guy that punts the ball professionally would have at least a modest chance of success on a short field goal?  The Giants didn't think so and opted for bad pass on a 4th and goal instead of trying a 21 yard field goal to go up by three late.  That's why the Giants are the Giants and will be forevermore.  Once bitten, twice shy?  Not this guy!  I'm backing the Giants again this week.

Look, the Browns don't look very good.  Watson can't move the team at all because the only passes he can complete are under 10 yards.  You have to hand it to Stefanski and Co.  They have looked at the situation and thought, "Well, our QB sucks, so let's try to make sure he doesn't lose the game for us.".  The Browns are going to try and win games with defense and field position, a very 1973 way of playing the game, but it's all they've got right now.  There is no reason to think that a very average football team trying to win with field position and defense can cover 6.5 points.  I am on the Giants +6.5 with the idea that they are max motivated, probably not as bad as the NY media would have you believe, and I'm not sure how the Browns can create a two score margin of victory.

I am also sticking my hand back on the stove and betting against the Packers again.  The Packers are having a little theater performance about playing Jordan Love with his fucked up knee this week.  Ohhh!  Is he or isn't he going to play?  They just made him one of the highest paid guys in the league, essentially committing him to be the franchise cornerstone for the next half decade.  I can't see any reason to rush a dude with a torn up MCL in a non-confernce game against the Titans.  They had to figure with games v Colts/Titans that the scenario was they needed to go 1-1.  They got the win last week, and have a divisional game v Minnesota next week.  THAT is the game they must be focused on.  I see this as a potential flat spot.  Also, there is no way that Tennessee can be as shit stupid as the Colts were last week and not stack the line against the run.  Green Bay ran the ball 53 times last week and the Colts somehow allowed that to happen.  There's this idea that all these NFL organizations MUST be smart because... well... they're in the NFL.  Malik Willis is not, nor ever will be, a starting NFL QB.  Yet somehow, the Colts were unprepared for the Packers to run the ball and make sure Willis didn't have to make throws.  How is the Colts defensive coordinator still employed?  Tennessee won't make that mistake.  Although there is a good chance Will Levis will singlehandedly lose the game for the Titans and I bash my TV repeatedly against a tree in the backyard. Tennessee -2 

Watching Jacksonville last week a few things struck me.  1). There are very few cities as depressing as Jacksonville.  I've been there before and it seemed to be populated strictly by Cracker junkies, monster truck enthusiasts, and stupid fucking hillbillies.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there are some well heeled folks that exploit those other people as a labor force to run their Vape Shops, Low Credit Auto Lots, and spooky strip clubs, but on the whole, Jacksonville is the worst aspects of America the day after getting wasted at a Morgan Wallen concert.  2). Trevor Lawrence just isn't the guy.  He was touted as one of those "can't miss, QB of a generation" but it seems like he's going to settle into being the 14th-16th best QB in the league.  I mean, that's OK.  It's a great living.  The problem is the expectations are he's going to be Led Zeppelin, and it turns out he's The Firm.  3). The whole situation seems dysfunctional.  Doug Pederson is yelling at everyone, and no one wants to get yelled at by some carpetbagger in a teal visor.  The Jags can run the ball, but just don't call running plays.  The defense can't make a stop when they need it.  They're sorta shitty, know they're sorta shitty, and they'll have a bumpy season of being disappointed.  I have no idea how they go into Buffalo and get a win.  They might keep it close, but Trevor will disappoint the methhead Jags faithful again, all 28 of them.  Buffalo money line. 

Current record:  2-4