Bad Bunny and NFL Week 6.

 

I am getting absolutely pummeled by extreme political viewpoints, right and left, because I will look at various passionate takes about what is going on in the country.  It's really tiring to wake up each day to face whatever new EMERGENCY that the algorithm has created for me each morning.  Can I be frank about something?  Almost everyone is a fucking idiot.  I can't figure out if the various TV hosts, podcasters and plastic surgery disasters that are the front people for the Shit Show in DC believe what they say or not.  Take the political theater going on where the National Guard is being sent into situations that aren't a problem the National Guard can fix.  The obvious takeaway is that the inept Christian Nationalist Grifters in Washington are hoping to provoke some kind of event so they can send in more troops everywhere and presumably bully themselves into everlasting power and teet sucking with never ending martial law.  I mean... that's not going to work because the population is so disengaged that unless you start shooting people or fucking with rush hour traffic, no one cares.  Meanwhile, the Far Left, who are as organized as a Phish drum circle, like to talk about having a bunch of big protests and doing... something... about... something... BUT as long as everyone gets their streaming service to their phone, nobody gives a fuck.  Hillbillies in their play army ICE getup zip tie citizens all over the place, Trump can sell watxhes from the Oval Office, the Epstein Files can just sit there, and the government can shut down because rich people want more tax money instead of allowing sick people healthcare.  The major concern appears to be Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl.  

A quick note about Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl...  I do not understand how the people that are upset about Bad Bunny doing the Super Bowl halftime don't see themselves as an updated version of people shaking their fists at those damn hippies at Woodstock or quaking in fear as the Sex Pistols came off the plane to tour the United States.  How can you be unaware of how out of touch and ridiculous you look demanding "real music" like Lee Greenwood at the Super Bowl?  When I see Speaker Mike Johnson, the squarest motherfucker of the 2020s, pipe in with what he thinks should be the band at halftime, I know the nation has lost touch with any lesson of the past.  Look, I have no idea what Bad Bunny exactly sounds like, but I do know A LOT of people like him and the Super Bowl is MASS ENTERTAINMENT.  Someone is always going to be pissed at whoever is chosen to perform.  Just settle the fuck down and check the guy out. Maybe you'll like it.  You probably won't, but it won't kill you either way.  It's 20 minutes of your life while you're chowing down on wings losing your parlay.  I do know one thing for certain, which is I'm not giving Mike Johnson control of the music at any party.  Fucking dork.    

Let's move onto important subjects, the continued struggle of the NFL.  It has been VERY frustrating to be essentially on the mark with the handicap and still lose.  That Arizona loss to Tennessee was 99.9% an Arizona victory with 3 minutes left according to people that track these things.  The last "least likely" games to have come up loser like that were two weeks ago, the CLE/GB and Rams/PHIL games, all three of which I was on the wrong side of.  I need to trust the process and plod ahead.  Let's get to it...

I have never seen a spot like the Browns playing the Steelers this week.  The Browns are coming off a short week with jet lag to go play a road game.  The Steelers are coming off a bye.  How did the NFL do that to the Browns?  Making matters worse, this will be Dillon Gabriel's first real road start.  The last Browns QB to win a regular season game in Pittsburgh was Tim Couch.  That is not a misprint.  They have lost 18 games in a row.  Eighteen.  Mike Tomlin is also 18-4 versus rookie QBs ATS at home in Pittsburgh.  The Browns traded their Game 1 starting QB in division, and traded CB Greg Newsome, a former first rounder for contractual reasons.  Now there is a QB controversy between a shitty 3rd round draft pick and shitty 5th round draft pick. There are still three starting O linemen out.  The white flag waving in the first week of October is early, even for Cleveland.  How the fuck are the Browns going to win this game?  Pittsburgh money line. 

OK, this makes me uneasy but I'm on the Dolphins.  Hear me out on this.  This has to be the low market on the Dolphins.  They look inept.  The coach seems like he relapsed or something.  Remember a couple years ago when he was quirky and a genius, and now he just seems like a little fella in way over his head that needs help?  The Chargers are still horribly injured.  They have both tackles out, their starting running back gone for the season, and dinged up guys all over the defense.  Are the Chargers "better" than the Dolphins?  Probably.  Are they "better" than the Dolphins right now?  I don't think so.  It's a West Coast team flying to Miami for a 1pm kickoff to roast in the sun.  Miami +4.5 is just too many points.   

This feels really square but I am getting on New England over the Saints.  The Patriots are getting better each week.  Meanwhile the Saints look like they might be better than expected after beating the Giants, but to those of you that didn't watch that game (i.e. EVERYONE), the only reason they won was the Giants turned the ball over five times in a row to start the second half.  The Saints are terrible and the only way they can win is if the team they are playing turns it over deep three+ times.  I think the Patriots grind out a businesslike win here and keep their Wild Card dreams alive.  New England -3.

Season Record:  5-12 

The Big Turnaround and NFL Week 5

 

Good lord have I been ice cold on these NFL bets.  I can't ever remember a streak as bad as this one.  There was a guy I knew that ran a car dealership.  He had bought into some "pick advisor" a long time ago, one of those Vegas based tout services that used to have 800 numbers to try and rope you into paying for picks.  He had used the service for a couple of weeks and had done pretty well, like 65% or something.  He decided to just go for it on Thanksgiving weekend with these guys picks and went an astounding 2-19.  He lost so much money he had to sell some of his appliances and his wife's car.  It put what was referred to as "a strain on his marriage".  See?  Things could be worse.

I used to work with these guys in radio that had management take their sales staff on a trip to Vegas after they hit some bullshit sales goal.  One of the guys was a total degenerate, sort of a Chris Farley lookalike.  In true radio industry fashion, they had been given a small budget to make it happen, so the guys on the staff decided to book into the Frontier, well known as the dingiest place on the strip in the 1990s.  It was the kind of place where you'd get chips that had cigarette burns on them sometimes.  The whole place smelled like mold and smoke and urinal cakes.  So the Chris Farley guy was so jacked up that he had his co-workers hold his place in the check-in line as he laid down some bets on roulette.  He had noticed the wheel had come up Red on the last five rolls.  He bet black.  It came up red again.  Loser.  He decided to double up and get his money back.  He bet black.  It came up red once again.  Loser.  Now he's all in as this had taken a big chunk of his bank roll.  He puts the rest of his money in to "get his money back".  He bets black.  There is no way it would hit red 8 times in a row.  It hits red.  Loser.  He hadn't even checked in and he's busted.  He's got three days in the shittiest hotel in Vegas with NO money.  He checks into his room, bunked in with a Ned Flanders type guy.  He's cautious to a fault, afraid of even offering an opinion in the off chance it could put him in some sort of risk.  The Chris Farley guy is furious and knocking back a six pack he forced Ned Flanders to buy him on the way up.  Ned leaves Farley to his misery and walks around The Strip to take pictures.  On his way back to the room, he finds a quarter in his pocket so he puts it in the slot machine by the elevator.  He wins $3000.  He practically sprints back to the room eager to share his good fortune with Chris Farley.  "Look!  Look!  Look!  I won $3000 on a quarter slot!"  Farley turns his head slowly and says "If you don't get the fuck out of here I swear to Christ I will beat your head open on the bathroom sink."

See?  Things could be worse.  However, if you want to make some $$$ I'd bet the total opposite of these picks.

It's time to get back to basics.  Let's bet against bad teams.  The Titans are 3-18 against the spread since the start of the Callahan Era.  Why those dipshit kids of the deceased Titans owner decided to get rid of Vrabel and bring in this guy is beyond me.  Cam Ward looks like a bust.  They have different people calling screen passes, runs and passing plays.  This whole thing is bad in Nashville.  I will take Arizona at home hoping I am not the reason why the Titans start to turn it around.  Arizona -7.5

Browns new starting QBs are 0-16 on their first start.  They are not exactly setting Dillon Gabriel for success starting him on a short week against a team already acclimated to the six hour difference time zone.  Minnesota's Brian Flores runs a complicated defense that has a great track record against inexperienced QBs.  The Browns are also starting the two lowest rated tackles in football.  Are there risks here?  Ummm yeah.  Minnesota has three offensive linemen out, and they haven't been good anyway.  That's not great news against the Browns and Myles Garrett.  Oh, and they just put their center on the IR with a concussion so they have to start their third stringer.  How are either of these teams going to move the ball?  I have no idea, but I'll tell you this.  The Browns are going to try to run the ball... a lot.  Give me Judkins OVER 18 Rushing Attempts.  What do rookie QBs do?  Panic and run the ball.  In college last year, Gabriel typically took off and ran at least three times a game for moderate yardage.  We don't need much here.  Dillon Gabriel over 15 yards rushing.   

I don't think the Chiefs are very good.  All of these NFL dynasties eventually come to an end, and it feels like this is a Kansas City version of a rebuild.  Jacksonville has a pretty good offensive line that has kept Lawrence clean and that makes a huge difference for that dude.  Kansas City has one of the worst D lines in the NFL, so that matchup is going to be a tough one.  I absolutely hate putting money on Jacksonville, but I don't know how the Chiefs finesse their way out of this one. Monday Night at home and getting 3.5 points seems perfect to win a bet as you watch the Jags lose by three on a FG at the end.  Jacksonville +3.5

Current Record:  3-10

     

Here Cometh The Ice Man and NFL Week 4

 

I was in France last week and watched some of the NFL Sunday in a Paris sports bar.  The downside of watching NFL in a Euro Sports Bar is you have to wait for the Premier League matches to end or everyone gets (rightfully) pissed when the TV starts showing Jags v Commanders.  I like seeing what passes for American culture interpreted by another country like a sports bar.  They had wings and pizza and shit like that, but it wasn't that "this might kill you" version of a wrap.  It was more dainty.  They just don't understand one of the pillars of American culture, which is "if 1 is good, 17 is better".  A chicken wrap is fine with their little serving of chicken in it, but it can't compare with our version of two chickens, bacon, three cheeses, some kind of Ranch Fiesta Sauce and a mountain of fries.  They did their best I guess, but they need to dial up the gluttony meter.   I had a good time over there though.  I have a whole discussion of being at harvest in Chinon on my MW blog if you are so inclined here: https://doomedmwquest.blogspot.com/2025/09/harvest-in-chinon.html

I have been fortunate enough to be very well traveled.  I've been from Shang-hai to London to Berlin to Belize.  However, one of my biggest memories will always be when two unthinkable special teams plays happened almost simultaneously to allow me to lose that Rams and Packers bets.  I could not have handicapped those games any better.  For 59 minutes those games were money in my pocket... until they weren't.  Let's not mince words.  That fucking sucked some major donkey dick, if I may be so eloquent.  I am so cold, I am considering changing all of my email handles to "Ice Man@whatever.com".   I'm just going to have to "trust the process" and turn this ship around this week.  

It's fair to say up front that three weeks ago I got on Green Bay who is going to Dallas.  The market has the game as Green Bay -7 but I'm in at Green Bay -2.5. A word to the wise, you can often get on games early with weak lines a few weeks out.  The risk is if Jordan Love falls into a well and breaks his spine or something, but in this case it was so early in the season that people still thought the Cowboys would be good.  I can't imagine that Green Bay after handing that win to Cleveland last week isn't going to be focused and motivated to handle the Cowboys this week.  I'm delighted to be sitting Green Bay -2.5 though.

We all know Tennessee is bad.  Did you know that the Titans are 3-17 ATS in their last 20?  How much longer will this franchise keep this fiasco going?  17 of 20 games your team performed below expectation.  It's so bad that Houston is giving a touchdown at home to Tennessee and Houston is 0-3.  This is the first time since 1989 that an NFL team that was 0-3 was favored by a touchdown.  Dec 8th of last year is the last time Tennessee has lost by less than a touchdown.  The Titans are last in yards per play.  Houston has a Top 10 defense.  Houston can't score either but the Titans defense is terrible.  I can't see Houston, in what is a MUST WIN game for them, laying an egg here.  It's a divisional game and those can get a little weird, so I am going to tie them into another game.

The Giants, in full "we are going to all lose our jobs" panic mode are tossing Dart out to make his first start against the Chargers.  I don't know why you would do that to that kid, but this is what's happening.  I hate to bet on West Coast teams playing early games as that can often result in flat performances.  Maybe the Giants eek out a cover here, but Dart is going to be a large variance in this game.  I am going to tie these two together with Houston/LA Chargers money line parlay and take the "safe" bet that will likely bite me in the ass.    

Who knew that the Colts v Rams would be a big game in Week 4.  Daniel Jones is playing so well that he looks positively franchise worthy, confirming my suspicions that the Colts staff knows what they are doing.  The Rams look like a playoff team to me, and if not for a flukey finish would be 3-0 after that Eagles game.  This could have been a possible flat spot for LA, but I think they'll come in with a huge effort.  On the other hand, I think the Colts might be the best team in the South as long as they can keep Richardson off the field.  I think the total is too low with people thinking these defenses (which have played some shitty teams) are better than they are.  I jumped on that Over 47 as soon as I saw it, but even at 49 I like it.  Rams/Colts OVER 47.

Current record:  3-7

Futbol, Football and NFL Week 3

 

I'm on a train in France trying to make sense of this NFL slate this week despite steamrolling into the highly anticipated Paris FC v Strasbourg match, sort of the French version of a Falcons v Bears game.  It's nice to be out of the country for a break.  I looked at the paper this morning thinking about that quote I recently read that said something like "Now Americans will understand how Nazi Germany happened as one third of the nation performs cruelties on another third while the last third stands and watches".  Just for those keeping score at home on the Dictatorship board, we've got state controlled media, loss of free speech, state prosecution of political foes, scapegoating of fringe groups, masked federal police tossing people in vans, loss of due process, troops on city streets and rewards for total loyalty so there's not much left to accomplish.  Congratulations America, you are now Turkey.  Next stop?  Who knows.  The great news is that there will be a stadium filled with drunk ass Browns fans singing "Proud To Be An American" in the 4th quarter as the Browns are down 34-10.  Bread and circus baby!  

I can't do anything about my ever diminishing feeling of pride I used to have for my country, but what I can do is embrace one of our nation's highest values... gambling on NFL Football!  (Cue "Proud To Be An American"). I am getting on the Rams today versus Philadelphia.  The Eagles are probably going to be one of the four left standing at the end, but they aren't playing that well right now.  They're 2-0 so no one really thinks about how they were in a close game with Dallas that had to fight to the death with the Giants, and looked unimpressive playing a Kansas City team that finally looks like they'll have to suffer a minor rebuild.  The Rams are sneaky good.  Their problem is I can't see how they play 17 regular season games with a 37 year old QB that has a fucked up disc in his back.  Stafford will be his version of healthy today though, and that's all that matters.  I'll take McVeigh on this game to outcoach the Philly staff after their Super Bowl reshuffle.  LA Rams +3.5     

If I had to choose one team to win the NFC right now, that would be Green Bay.  It's a young team on the rise, good QB, good coach, and a disruptive pass rush.  The Browns haven't been able to move the ball convincingly on a crappy Bengals D or the Ravens coming off having Buffalo drop 40+ on them.  How does Joe Flacco, a 40 year old QB that looks like a 40 year old guy playing QB, create time crunching drives with that offensive line?  The Browns defense looks much better than the offense, but to win this game they will need to create game changing turnovers.  When faced with the option of being on the side of the Browns getting lucky or Green Bay coming in and being the better team, I'll take the latter.  I am going to pay the tax and take a point on this as insurance.  Green Bay -6.5

They say that the best bets are the ones that make you uncomfortable.  This must be a great one because I am going to take the Saints today.  Let's not mince words.  The Saints blow.  However, they do have offensive weapons who, though usually hurt, are healthy today in Olave and Kamara.  Spencer Rattler is playing like a poor man's Gardiner Minshew, not a great compliment but I'm trying here.  He's been sorta better than expected, almost a "we can maybe win with him" but certainly not a "he will make us win" guy.  Seattle is playing so conservatively as if they already have buyer's remorse on Sam Darnold.  This game should be low scoring, boring, and close.  Don't get me wrong, the Saints will end up losing but not by more than a touchdown.  New Orleans +7.5 

Current record: 3-4

History All Over Again and NFL Week 2

 

Like most everyone, I've been preoccupied with the Charlie Kirk shooting.  I'll admit that until the shooting, I only had a vague idea of who he was.  I had seen some of those "Prove Me Wrong" videos online where he slams a hammer on college kids with overly simplistic and well rehearsed bar room comebacks.  To me he was always just part of that MAGA grifter tent village that orbits around Trump looking for a buck and more clicks in the attention economy that dominates the world of 20 year olds.  Charlie Kirk seemed like one of those Dunning Krueger effect debate guys that you see in high school that smugly think they're an expert on something because they saw a couple youtube videos on a topic and wave away more nuanced deeper understanding as inconvenient.  When I was a high school sophomore, I would absolutely dominate in a classroom debate on a topic like the Death Penalty.  That shit is easy when you're thinking like a teenager.  When you gain some life experience is when you realize it's not an accident that topics like abortion, capital punishment, Middle East, etc have various pros/cons that make things much more complicated than the world of provocateur speakers like Kirk would have you believe.

Like most of our societally accepted daily national gun murders, this didn't make much sense.  As soon as it happened I thought "I wonder where they are going to find the white guy in his twenties that did this" as that is 99/100 who the shooter turns out to be.  Sure as shit, it's a 22 year old gun loving suburban kid that dressed as Trump for Halloween and spends WAYYYY too much time on the internet.  Just as predictably, our beloved leader then went on Fox News to blame "radical left extremists" to further divide and inflame the edgy population.  Now I'm not sure how you box this 22 year old Mormon that appears to be a radicalized right wing gamer kid into a hardcore left radical especially since he lives in fucking rural Utah, but that's what we are going with on this.  That means that whatever pretzel logic the Fox Viewer will need to do to spread further hate online will take about 12 hours, and we can nestle in for more shooting and killing from white suburban males.  The only way you can believe that purple hair urban baristas confused about their sexuality are going to bring the downfall of the country is to have never been inside an independent coffee shop or punk rock bar in your life.  However, every dipshit with a beard in a pickup truck and grandmas in assisted living will be convinced that everyone except the suburban white male in his twenties that pulls every trigger is somehow responsible for all crimes.    

I don't know how a suburban white guy shooting another suburban white guy will turn into ICE agents herding brown people and cross dressers into "detention centers", but that's where we are going.  "They" are going to get blamed, and you better not get lumped into being one of "them" or you're gonna get fucked.  As a guy that has read a great deal of German history from 1918-1939, I can tell you with great confidence that USA 2025 bears an uncanny resemblance to Germany in 1936 except our version is dumbed down as a "brought to you by Wal Mart/WWE/Marvel" vibe.  We are all getting used to having the military on the streets like it's no big deal.  The federal private police force ICE has a larger budget than all armies on the earth except our own and China.  Remember when we were freaking out about Iraq's army during the Gulf War?  The masked goons in ICE have a bigger budget.  The German circle of power in the 30s is eerily reminiscent of the podcasters, flunkies and tv hosts sitting atop the pedestals of power today.  The administration ignores the courts and the opposition hasn't quite grasped that the guys in power have tossed out the rulebook.  The country you grew up in is o-v-e-r.  This is a new age my friend where anything goes, and if you're not in the clique, you ain't getting paid.  It will be a short run as that comet burns across the sky, but the money is flowing and you can deny it all later.   

That leaves you with the choice to watching Rome burn OR watching the Cardinals kick the Panthers in the fucking teeth.  Me?  I'm watching that.  I am of the impression that the Panthers might be worse than everyone thought.  That weird flicker of life they had at the end of the year seems like an anomaly and not a trend.  All those player rating services like Pro Football Focus, though flawed, are in agreement that the Panthers various units all sit in the bottom 20% of every metric.  The Jaguars, who aren't exactly elite, handled the Panthers easily.  The Cardinals just beat the Saints on the road, so why won't they smack the Panthers around in Arizona?  Bad teams don't win on the road.  Arizona -6.

In Week 2 I like to look for teams that I know are good that lost in Week 1.  Good teams usually don't  start 0-2.  KC is 0-1 but I'm not sprinting to the window to bet them against the Eagles.  This could be the fall off the cliff year for Kansas City.  Baltimore lost to Buffalo, but let's be honest... We know the Ravens are legit.  You have to like them against a Browns team that is probably better than national opinion thinks they are, or at least until they put in a rookie QB.  I have some concerns about the point spread on that Ravens game because the Browns defense might be for real, and they know how to play Lamar.  In the last four years that Browns/Ravens series is 4-4.  I just can't see the Ravens losing another game after that heartbreaking loss to Buffalo.  The Browns offense is NOT the Bills offense, and then I saw a Browns safety poke the Bear and say Derrick Henry wasn't hard to tackle.  I don't know why you would do that.  I want to tie that game into a parlay with another 0-1 team.  I'm thinking Lions.  Detroit might not be as good as last year, but they didn't disintegrate after being 15-2.  The Packers look like an elite team at this point so that loss in Green Bay isn't terrible.   Baltimore/Detroit money line parlay.

Let's be honest though...  The Packers made the Lions look bad last week.  Let's also face another fact.  The Bears are NOT the Packers.  I have to think Dan Campbell has the boys all whipped up and ready for action in the home opener.  I think this Lions team is not as good as last year, and the schedule is very challenging.  Still, they should be a playoff team.  Monday Night the Bears looked like... well... the Bears.  This doesn't look like a team that goes on the road and beats good teams.  They look like a team that beats up on the Panthers and the Titans and the Giants.  Detroit-6.  

Current Record:  1-3    

Test Results and NFL Week 1

 

I get my Master of Wine exam results at the end of next week.  There are three possible results.  Result 1. I passed the exam.  This is not going to happen as I know many areas that were not up to par in my answers.  I'm sorry, but I didn't know enough about wind impact in farming.  That's on me.  Result 2. I passed an area or two across three tasting exams and five essay sections.  This is what I'm hoping for as I can then really focus on filling in on my shortcomings and have some confidence moving forward.  That means I can try again next June.  Result 3.  I failed completely and am excommunicated from the program.  I don't think I did that poorly, but the education committee has a well documented history of not liking how I write (i.e. not like an English University student) and depending on who graded what, you can get totally lit up.  If that happens I could get booted from the program and then have to wait two years to re-apply to put myself into the meat grinder once again.  Thus, not knowing what scenario I am in has me struggling to stay motivated to study fermentation chemistry details and grape farming practices in volcanic soils in the Greek Isles.  I'm treading intellectual water right now and I don't like it.  

On the other hand, it feels like a year ago as to when I took that exam so I'm sort of done with sweating about it.  I keep forgetting that the results are coming next week until reminded by others.  That exam is something "Old Greg" did.  "New Greg" is doing Cowslingers practice and getting ready to harvest some grapes in France.  I have a morbid curiosity as to what the result is, but I'm not waking up in the middle of the night freaking out because I can't remember what grapes are used in Sicilian wines.  Whatever happens is going to happen and I'll react accordingly.  Just let me know what the deal is so I can plan what I am going to do for the next 9 months.  This MW quest is essentially a solo challenge with minimal tangible reward that is almost impossible to achieve, especially so if you don't reside in the waters of academia in the UK.  There was one new MW named this summer, and it was a woman that is a "multi sensory flavor perception" professor at the University of Copenhagen who got a PHD from Oxford, a Bachelors in computer science at CalTech, a Masters from MIT ands was the Captain of the Oxford Blind Wine Tasting Society.  By contrast, I went to Kent State, hung out with guys named Apeman/Jimmy Jazz/Bag Man, and later sold media sponsorships to Tough Man Contests and strip bars.  My smarts are a bit more street than the latest MW I'd reckon, but much less useful in this application.

I will tell you this... The Oxford Blind Wine Tasting Society can zero in on a Burgundy vintage, but I'll bet they can't get you a winner on Sunday.  It's time to get this season going, and I'm fresh off hitting that Dallas v Philly UNDER last night so I'm feeling good.  My first step is to leap right into dangerous waters and take the Cleveland Browns +6 over Cincinnati.  Look, we all agree that the Browns are not going to win a bunch of games this year.  I think we can also agree that the team will be much better early in the season than late.  For the next 6-7 games barring injury, Joe Flacco is going to try to be competitive and provide an example for the two shitty rookie QBs looking on before the team hands the keys to them to "see what they've got".  Spoiler alert, what they've got are a couple potential backup QBs that are going to look terrible in the windy Nov/Dec portion of the schedule.  There's no need to worry about that now though.  This is a weekly game we are playing, and we just need the Browns to stay close.  Divisional home underdogs cover these games, especially in Week 1.  If it makes you nervous, chances are that it's a good bet.  No guts, no glory.  Cleveland +6

I have the same mindset with Atlanta at home +2.5 over Tampa.  When I look at Tampa and Atlanta, I see pretty much the same team.  They would both have losing records but are fortunate enough to play in the NFC South so somebody has got to win the division.  Tampa got all the good breaks last year so that means it should swing Atlanta's way this year.  Cousins killed Atlanta's season after he hurt his shoulder.  I think he threw 4 backbreaking Q4 interceptions to lead Atlanta to losses before he got benched for Pennix last season.  Pennix came in, looked at least better than Cousins did, and they won some games.  Divisional game at home with Tampa having two O line injuries?  Why not Atlanta?  Atlanta beat Tampa twice last year with Cousins.  I think they can do it again at home with Pennix and points.  Atlanta +2.5

Let's go for a third...  I'm on Seattle +1.5 at home vs the 49ers.  The narrative on SF is they are "back" after an injury plagued 2024, and with an easy schedule will breeze back to the playoffs.  Seattle dumped out on Geno for Sam Darnold, which sort of seems like saying "I traded in my Hyundai for a Kia" horizontal change, but maybe they know something we don't.  They sure knew that Russell Wilson was d-u-n done before the Broncos did (though I do have some concerns that their old coach Pete Carroll brought Geno into the Raiders building ASAP).  The Niners are starting the year with a bunch of injuries.  All their playmakers except an increasingly rickety Kittle are out or on the injury report.  McCaffrey having a calf injury before Week 1 certainly doesn't inspire confidence.  I am looking for a boring Seahawks team to win a close game at home.  Seattle +2.5     

Here's a concept for you.  Teams with new QBs and new offensive coordinators don't score a lot of points in Week 1.  With this in mind, I was going to go UNDER on the Steelers v Jets game, but instead just jumped on the Jets team total.  I'm getting the Steelers defense playing against Justin Fields who they practiced against all last year with his new OC calling the plays at a game at Heinz Field.  As someone once wisely said, "The Jets Never Cover The Spread".  Mike Tomlin needs a win out of the gate, as does Aaron Rodgers.  I think they dial it up and come with 100% focus at the Jets.  No better time for Jets fans to be disappointed than fresh out of the gate in Week 1.  Jets Under 17.5

Sucking On Chili Dogs

 

I was doing yard work today, the sun straining to give the illusion of summer heat, the unmistakeable tinge of Autumn's arrival creeping in on the sides.  The end of summer is tough in NE Ohio, where the move is more severe than most places that don't have the abrupt shift to cool temperatures that arrive with Labor Day like the flick of a light switch.  I use a push mower and let the sound of the angry machine act as a white noise to allow my mind to drift.  I've come up with a bunch of our well known songs while mowing, ideas that pop into my head out of nowhere.  I tried to let my head empty as I mowed up a combination of suddenly green grass and crispy brown early fallen leaves.  

I must have been thinking about the end of summer, summer songs, and that sort of thing when John Mellencamp's "Jack and Diane" came into my head like an unwanted jukebox selection.  You know, as much as I've tried to avoid that song, it's really pretty good.  That vibe of an Indiana Tastee Freeze with the young couple hanging out is pure Midwestern summer.  It captures that moment of teenage purity with impending adulthood and more serious consequences of actions in a light way in the verses with a real bummer of a chorus.  "Life goes on, long after the thrill of living is gone".  Damn, that's really good.  But the line that obscures that killer chorus is that chili dog verse.  You know the one...  "suckin on a chili dog outside the Tastee Freeze".

It's an interesting word choice that "suckin".  It's not like every inch of that monster corporate record wasn't debated by the label.  Mellencamp, a known and admitted red ass, knew what he was doing there.  Why didn't he use something more literal for chili dog consumption like "chompin" or "bitin" or "wolfin" or "chewin"?  Did he use "suckin" to get your headspace into Diane was down with blowing Jack and maybe wasn't so innocent a debutante?  Or was he trying to set a tone of unsatisfied youthful sexual energy?  Look, I have had my share of chili dogs over the years, and not once did I "suck on a chili dog".  Maybe that's some sort of Indiana technique I don't know about.  Maybe it's a nod to recent dental work that required a more gentle eating approach.  I don't know.  Anyway, that's what I was thinking about as I cut the grass this afternoon. 

What I should have been thinking about was my NFL over/unders.  My beloved Milwaukee Brewers came in on their over this week.  That White Sox under bet is dead in the water, so I'm even there.  Now it just comes down to the Guardians winning 79+ games.  THAT is going to be tight as they have sort of tossed the towel in on the season and are kinda sorta trying to make the Playoffs in September.  I really don't want to be white knuckling a Guardians v Texas Rangers game on Sept 27th, but here we are.  Regardless of the outcome, that position I took on that one was mild next to the multi app steam I put on the other two.  That leaves me some more room for the NFL totals.

As I have noted, I am on the Saints UNDER 7.5 wins, a total I can't believe I got down.  They are going to suck so fucking bad.  How is Spencer Rattler going to drive you to victory?  Rattler is 0-7 in his NFL starts.  He will go 0-4 and then turn it over to that shit rookie they drafted for continued dismal results.  I am also on Matt Stafford UNDER 3650 passing yards.  The Rams are already talking about Jimmy G starting a couple games so Stafford can make it though the season.  Sure, that's all you need with a fucked up disc in your back.  You can just rest a week and then get right back in there and get hit by 300 pound monsters and you'll be fine.  No problem there.  If you can still find that line, get down on that.

I like to look for UNDERS.  This is the NFL, when things tend to go poorly as opposed to miraculously well.  If a team takes injuries, they're doomed.  That's a built in edge for unders.  Someone that has caught my attention is the Carolina Panthers.  Colin Cowherd was riffing that they could win 10 games this year.  There is this narrative that the Panthers relative good finish last year portends a leap to respectability in 2025.  Bryce Young came back and was...  OK?  There's this collective amnesia about what really happened there.  After Thanksgiving the Panthers went 2-5 which included a meaningless win in the last week vs the Falcons.  They beat Arizona, Giants and the Spencer Rattler led Saints.  Not exactly murderer's row there.  They got smoked by Dallas at the end of the year 30-14 which is BAD.  Tampa beat 'em 48-14.  So what are the Panthers exactly and why are they going to go OVER 6.5 wins?

The Panthers finished dead last in defense on points allowed.  They allowed the most yards.  They allowed the most rushing yards.  The good news is they were only 29th in pass defense, probably because no one bothered to pass since they could run the ball so easily.  The offense sucked too.  They were 23rd overall in yardage, 24th in points and 31st in passing yards.  Why are they at 6.5 wins when they went 5-12 last season with one of those wins a preseason game type win?  Surely they must have signed some monster free agents and upgraded massively with the draft!

So the Panthers spent a bunch of money on two offensive guards, which was odd in that their offensive line was ranked 7th by Pro Football Focus.  The Panthers are operating under the idea that if they protect little Bryce Young, everything is going to be just great.  They drafted a big deal rookie receiver from Arizona that split the scouts between "the guy is gonna be awesome" and "I don't know about this guy".  They signed RB Travis Etienne, which would have been awesome three years ago.  Essentially they threw seven new guys into the defense with a plan the Cleveland Browns have often used called "They gotta be better than what we had" which doesn't always deliver like you'd hoped.  I dunno.  It feels like everyone sort of decided the Panthers would be better because that's what we all decided for some reason.  They went 0-3 in the presesason and struggled to score points.  The rookie receiver had the second worst grade of any receivers in the preseason 87th out of 89.  They traded Adam Theilen so the Panthers don't seem too concerned.  I'm looking long and hard at an Under 6.5 wins here.  That Panthers organization sucks hard.  Sucks chili dog hard.  I might juice this up to Under 7.5 wins.  In the last decade the Panthers have won 8 games only once.  Carolina Panthers UNDER 7.5 wins