Jack Ruby and The Brewers

 

I knew this guy named Rick that used to spend a lot of time talking about how he wanted to become famous by assassinating Willie Nelson.  He had a real focused idea about it, sort of a Jack Ruby style move with a gut shot via a snub nosed .38 caliber pistol.  I don't think he had a beef with Willie Nelson.  It was more about being able to take away something that gave others joy that appealed to him.  I remember trying to explain to him the difference between "famous" and "infamous", but Rick didn't quite grasp that.  He had this vision where people would have some sort of begrudging respect that he had done something so "big".  The good news is that I think he forgot about that and seemed to put his focus on crypto currency valuations.  I think I speak for all of us when I say that if he decided to assassinate the Hawk Tuah girl after she did that crypto scam the vast majority of the population would at the most be ambivalent about his actions.  I still don't think the population would be supportive.  I don't think he ever bought that .38 anyway.  Well, at least I don't think he did.  I scan the headlines most mornings to see if anyone pulled a Jack Ruby on anyone of note. Back when we had Federal employees, some crime fighting agency probably had a file on that dude.  I wonder if they do now?  Hmmm.

There are a lot of people out there with ideas.  Big ideas.  I think the downside to a huge swath of the populations living very internalized lives on their devices is a detachment from reality where schemes like assassinating Willie Nelson (or say the CEO of United Health) start to seem like a good idea.  People that don't have any sense of community can get real out there, real fast.  I can think of a decent number of acquaintances of mine I have seen transform over the last five years from being sorta dopey salt of the earth guys into fascist/racist idea spewing machines that their old selves wouldn't recognize.  A guy I knew from radio that now lives a self imposed hermit with his mother is a hate filled monster that spends his days regurgitating Russian disinformation on social media.  What the hell happened to that guy?  Or the 20 something kid that loved animation that now seems like he's flirting with joining some militia kooks?  The amount of real time radicalization happening from the device people pay a monthly fee to poison their mind is not the Great Future Of Information we were expecting.

Here's some recent US survey results for you to consider.  Despite having all of the accumulated current information in the world at our fingertips,

* 10% of US citizens believe the world is flat 

*   9% of US citizens believe that covid vaccinations implanted microchips in people for tracking purposes

* 12% don't think NASA landed on the moon and 17% are unsure

* 17% don't think the earth revolves around the sun

The numbers increase as you get younger, meaning that 28% of Gen Z doesn't believe NASA landed on the moon for example.  Is this a result of poor education?  Is it embracing conspiracy theories to try and gain control over too much chaos from a never ending firehouse of data being poured over them?  I don't know.  I think it has something to do with embracing the idea that nothing is a fact now.  I don't listen to Joe Rogan very often because I generally don't care about what a standup comedian that was the host of Fear Factor and loves MMA has to say about much of anything.  It's also because most Joe Rogan episodes go like this...  "Today we have on some guy with a website that says American city water is the cause of all diseases.  So tell me about this..."  Well, I don't know if you know this but most tap water is rife with bacterial agents which are responsible for 300,000 deaths in America each year.  "Really?  I hadn't heard that."  Yes, and NASA is putting mind control poisons like terracyclocide in the water supply that can only be counteracted by eating alfalfa.  "Wow.  I didn't know that."  Now let's go to our other guest, the noted authority on bacterial infections from Harvard, Dr. John Doe.  John, do you care to debate these allegations made by our other equally esteemed guest?".  

From a media point I understand the idea of creating debate to keep people listening.  However, maybe the greater good can be served by not putting blatant kooks and grifters on what appear to be vetted programming?  "Coming up next, we debate the law of gravity!"  The idea that all facts are up for debate is not a great development in our society.  When I sold advertising I would often have people tell me "advertising doesn't work".  Really?  About 30% of Americans think that the 2020 election was "stolen" from Trump despite the Trump camp losing 60 court cases and never producing credible evidence to back this repeated claim up.  Yet, by repeating a lie over and over, you've got 30% of the population believing that lie.  THAT is how advertising works my friend.

It's a drag to live in what will undoubtedly be referred to as The End Of The American Empire, and it's an even bigger drag to find that society's undoing is being caused by dorks like Zuckerberg, Elon, a ex-Reality TV show host, Rupert Murdoch and various cable tv hosts.  At least when Germany went through this kind of thing in the 1930s, they had an amazing cast of super villains.  Those guys were legitimate monsters and we've got a bunch of snake oil hucksters.  Disappointing really.  It would be great to debate some of the valid problems we have in the country, but most of us aren't even in the same reality thanks to our mobile devices.  I'm going to continue to concentrate on what really matters, baseball win totals.

Last year I backed the OVER on both the Oakland A's (winner) and Cleveland Guardians (winner).  I found it was an outstanding way to have a vested interest in an otherwise meaningless A's v Rockies game on a Tuesday night.  I don't feel great about the totals on either the As or Cleveland this year (70.5 and 82.5).  My beloved Giants decided to not spend the money they'd need to push Arizona so it looks grim there.  I decided to hunt for a team that might be undervalued.  After nosing around for a month, I have settled on the Milwaukee Brewers.  Like you, I knew almost nothing about the Brewers before reading up on them.  They are sitting at 83 games on their win total.  Their starting pitching is mediocre in a C+ sorta way.  The bullpen looks decent.  Their offense is OK.  There isn't much to look at and say "God damn these guys are lights out".  You know what though?  They always find a way.  They haven't gone below 83 wins in 7 years.  They look like a team built like Cleveland, better than the sum of their parts.  Nobody else in the NL Central is a juggernaut either.  Why not the Brewers?  You want to bet on the Pirates?  The Reds?  I can't do it.  I found a book that has a slanted juice for Milwaukee OVER 82.5 that I moved on.  I bought a Brewers cap, and I'm ready for some mediocre NL baseball this summer.  Get on board with The Brew Crew!           

 

 

Ramblings Of The Unemployed and Over 79

 

I had worked in the same job for 18 years.  Some people came and went.  Some circumstances changed.  However, it was basically doing the same job at the same place the same way for 18 years.  It's odd how a job can come to define and outline the parameters of your happiness/unhappiness.  For most people, you sort of fall into whatever it is that you do.  A few years pass, and you become whatever your title is at that job.  "Greg?  He's a TV guy."  At no point did I lay out a plan when I was 19 years old that said, "With some luck, when I'm in my fifties I can sell weather sponsorships in the 4p news to a window company for a dysfunctional TV station in Cleveland."  You just sort of get there somehow.

The problem with these jobs is that once you get trapped into a life you have constructed where you need a minimum of X dollars a month to make sure that the people from Mastercard don't come to your house and beat you with sticks, you become trapped.  Now you are stuck in a microcosm where the 10-15 people of your department is your entire world.  You figure you've got 65 hours a week tied up into that alternate reality with a 830a-530p Monday though Friday plus commutes and prep time for going in to your workplace.  If you sleep 8 hours a night, that gives you 15 free hours during the week and 32 hours on the weekend for 47 hours of your time.  You're looking at 60% of your life defined by your work environment.  More than half of your life is spent with a collection of people and a social strata in which you have very little control.  

Every workplace I have ever been has that lie they perpetuate about being "like a family".  I would agree to that if "like a family" you meant having an emotionally abusive mother, pathologically lying father, promiscuous sister, brother on the spectrum and an uncle with anger management issues, but I'm not sure if that's what they meant.  The thing is though you spend so much time there that it all slowly becomes normal.  People that might be clinically found to be sociopaths are directly impacting your quality of life and it just is the way that it is. They are your leader because they randomly got a job and you accept being the submissive.  When you think about some of the people you have had to maintain your composure around when they lie to your face because they are an "assistant regional manager" and you are a lowly "associate leadership specialist", it's crazy.  Yet, we all have agreed to operate under this social contract.  I've had people managing me that I wouldn't put in charge to go get a pizza if I handed them a $20 and a map to the pizza place, yet I tried to nod my head thoughtfully when they drone on about the most harebrained self-serving idea I've ever heard.  "Sounds good Bob."  You ever work at a place with a "seagull manager"?  That's one that flies in, shits all over the place and then flies away.  

I haven't been to my old job in a couple months now.  It's amazing how little I think about it.  I worked with people that had their hair fall out and developed stomach ulcers because of the low rent Court of Versailles that was that work environment.  There were people there that think a slightly modified newscast will save their doomed industry and I haven't even turned that channel on in 2025.  All these jobs are like that.  You can't see the forest because of the trees.  When you are freaking the fuck out at your job, please remember this.  No one cares.  Whatever you are doing, it probably doesn't matter.  The boss that is bullying you?  They are getting dominated by their spouse at home and take it out on you.  That all powerful regional manager that comes in quarterly to "shake it up"?  They are referred to by their neighbor as "that dipshit next door" when they fuck up garbage day again.  These people that assume outsized importance in our lives are little people doing little things that don't matter.  Forget about them.  The job will continue when you leave but more importantly, you'll continue after you leave the job.

The great news is I am now able to focus on the only three things that matter as we approach Spring 2025.  Wine exams, the new Whiskey Daredevils record, and MLB baseball win totals.  As I have discussed, I have taken a position on the White Sox.  I do feel a need to be connected to the local Guardians franchise.  Last year on my birthday I received a custom Guardians jersey from Krusty.  The number was 79.  The name on the back was "Over".  Yes, I had bet on the Guardians to win more than 79 games last year, an easy winner.  With the Guardians win total sitting at 82.5 this season, that makes the shirt null and void.  Well, until I realized I could just shift the win total down to 79 and bet the over at -165!  Suddenly I'm wearing my Guardians jersey again! 

I'll be honest with you.  I don't know that much about the Guardians.  They have a couple good hitters, some OK starters and last year an amazing bullpen.  Typically bullpens have great variance, and I think Clase is going to return to Earth which will cost them some games.  The rotation has a bunch of versions of "If he gets healthy" and "if he can keep progressing" guys, which is a great concern.  But, this is what I think of as "A Team Of Guys".  It's a collection of a bunch of OK to pretty good players.  Those are the teams that tend to finish around .500.  Are they going to win the World Series?  Absolutely not.  Are they good enough to win half the time?  I think so.  We're not looking for much here.  I can win with an 80-82 record.  Why not?  Let's get to 80 wins.  For my shirt.  Guardians Over 79 wins -165.        

It's All About The White Sox Now

As we slide into our new WWE flavored intellectually stunted post reality authoritarian age, I keep going back and forth between "I knew this was coming and it was going to be bad, but this is worse than I thought." and "Well, this is what you assholes wanted.  Here you go.".   I drove past one of those creepy Trump shack houses yesterday, those ones that have a car on blocks, crumbling foundation and a shrine of proudly flapping Trump flags.  Enjoy your greatness.  You are going to lose your Medicaid coverage because the Top 1% of earners wanted another $60,000 a year back in taxes.  Granted, as the flag wavers watched Fox or got whatever fantasy news update via social media, they had no idea.  Their Leader was telling them he wouldn't cut Medicaid even as the Republican budget plan that was simultaneously being submitted had an $880 Billion cut to Medicaid.  I dunno.  I'm sorta feeling "that's what you get" as I pass that Trump Shrine Shack House.  They'll never know what happened but Fox will give them some kind of scapegoat I'm sure.  Tough to blame the Mexicans or out of office politicians for that, but they'll find a way.    

The current grift that is going to get rubber stamped will make the 2017 Tax Cut permanent.  Remember how that was going to "trickle down" untold wealth on the entire population?  Shockingly, that's not what happened.  Administration officials claimed their centerpiece corporate tax rate cut would “very conservatively” lead to a $4,000 boost in household income.  All evidence not floated out from Baghdad Bob showed that workers who earned less than about $114,000 on average in 2016 saw “no change in earnings” from the corporate tax rate cut, while top executive salaries increased sharply.  Every sales job I ever had where Corporate would trot out a murky new commission structure that was "going to be good for you", it made me work 20% harder to just to try and make what I was making before as they lifted up their own bonuses.  I do know that our CEO paid himself $5M in annual bonuses as he systematically lost 80% of the company stock value over the last eight years.  He's "on brand" as they say in the industry.  

To pay for these Corporate Tax Cuts for the super rich, the government will have to somehow drum up enough money to keep at least some of our infrastructure running.  You can't cut Social Security or Medicare or the old folks will riot.  Assuming we ever have something that is close to a real election again (odds +135), all those people that get tied to that decision will get voted out.  You gotta cut something.  How about Medicaid?  Those are poor people with small voices and medical conditions, a perfect victim.  Here's some math for you.  The top 1% of earners make $787,712 a year.  So those people can get an extra $60,000 a year (average tax cut for these 1%ers), that means that the bottom 20% of the population can't pay for health care.  Here's another quick fact... The richest 1% of Ohioans make almost as much as the complete bottom half.  You know what that top 1% needs?  You guessed it!  To pay less taxes.  Take that $60,000 and get a down payment on a place in Naples.  The bad news?  Even after cutting all the poor people's medical coverage, you still have an 80% shortfall of money.  Where does that go?  Pump it right into The Deficit.  

As the healthcare problem will get punted back to the States, Ohio will have an unbelievable shortfall of revenue to deal with this.  I guess you could just refuse to treat people and let them die in the street, but that seems a bit too Dark Ages even for 2025.  There will be some unreal shortfall of cash, so you know what I was thinking we should do?  Yep!  Spend $1.2B to build a football stadium we don't want or need out by the airport!  That way the guy that just got a massive personal income and corporate tax cut won't have any economic stress as he charges inflated seat license fees to people that can't afford health care to come watch his football team lose 12-15 games while slugging back $15 draft beers.  It's really too much to deal with.  I'm diving into playing music, learning everything about wine, and baseball.  What else is left?  

I have found a way to get at that White Sox bet.  On Draft Kings, they have a bet on which team has the worst record with the White Sox at -140.  Look, on win totals Chicago is at 53 and the next closest team is the Rockies at 59.5.  I get a 6.5 game buffer on a team I don't think will win 53 for -140?  Yeah, I like that better than sweating out an otherwise meaningless late September White Sox v Royals game to hope they don't win game 54, a full 6 games worse than the next team.  Besides the Rockies, the only other team I might have to sweat is the Marlins, but we'd be talking about a team that usually finds SOME good young players really shitting the bed.  The White Sox got nuthin.  I'm not saying the Colorado Rockies with such luminaries as 35 year old catcher Jacob Stallings, Giants castoff second baseman Thairo Estrada ("the worst hitter in MLB"-Rotowire), 3rd baseman Kris Bryant who has missed 1 out of every 3 games in the last 3 years, and consistently injured German Marquez is their #1 starter.  Still, they have at least a few players that will do something at the plate.  Give me the White Sox Worst Record -140.

Rainy Days and White Sox Got Me Down

 

I looked up how many "mostly sunny" days I have experienced since Thanksgiving.  Five.  In the last 83 days I have seen sun on five (5) of them.  I had the misfortune of missing 4 sunny days in January when I went to Germany/Spain and somehow managed to walk around in the rain of Southern Spain.  They get six rainy days in January on average and I hit all of 'em.  I woke up today and looked out the window at the sleet falling into the icy brown puddles, doom scrolled the news, and thought "I've gotta get the fuck out of here.".   

I always have been dismissive of "snowbirds" that went to Florida for the winter.  I hate Florida.  I have a theory that Florida is the bottom of the orange juice carton that is the United States.  All the sludge that lives here eventually settles down there at the bottom, filtering down naturally to nestle into the Florida Keys to sell trinkets, crypto, doomed waterfront real estate and meth.  Yet, would I trade living in the embodiment of a Kafka novel here in NE Ohio to walk around with East Coast car dealers and plastic surgery disasters in Naples FL?  You're goddamn right I would.  I'm starting to think those snowbird rubes figured it out.

With my embracing a short term position over the next few months as a student/privatier, I really should rent out some sort of beachfront condo and argue with the Homeowner's Association about my basset hounds inappropriately shitting in the landscaping.  Yet, as we're halfway through February maybe I can just tough this thing out.  I don't know how much longer I can go.  On the extended forecast, the first day that reaches the incredibly low bar of "mostly cloudy" is February 27th.  That's two fucking weeks.  If the sun doesn't peek though the clouds for a few days, I'm threatening of heading over to the Southern Hemisphere for a jaunt.  Maybe Mendoza or Capetown.  Just completely overreact to the whole thing.  I'll get fueled up on overextracted boozy malbec and grilled meat.  It's got to be better than sitting here in the cold wet wondering where my NFL football went.  As of now I've been trying to fill the void left by not having football with doing deep dives on MLB win totals.  It's not much, but it's all I've got.   

Each year I have embraced a team that I think has been undervalued by the Vegas books.  Last year Krusty and I flew in the face of conventional wisdom and made bank by getting behind the Oakland A's and their meager 63 win total.  Winner.  And now I have two A's caps and an A's sweatshirt I picked up in an almost empty Oakland Coliseum as I watched the A's get pummeled by the almost equally shitty Washington Nationals.  It was a long summer watching the A's, but if I find a shitty team that I think is undervalued, I'm doing it again.  I'd hit the A's again, but with a win total of 70.5, it's a bit rich for my blood.

Immediately I looked at the worst team, the Chicago White Sox.  The People tend to overreact on teams at either end of the spectrum.  The Public thinks the Dodgers will never lose (they might not) and the White Sox will never win.  It's human nature of assuming past results guarantee future performance.  This is baseball.  It's a game that is built on failure.  Great hitters make an out on 70% of their at bats.  Great teams lose about 40% of the time.  So how about the White Sox OVER 52.5?

I took a long hard look at the White Sox.  Here's my analysis.  "Shiver me timbers".  The White Sox won 41 games last year, a stunning 25% winning percentage.  They lost 21 in a row.  At one point they'd lost 82 of their first 111 games.  I can go on, but you get the idea.  They were appallingly bad.  So with a total of 52.5, why are the going to win 12 more games this year?  Well... I don't know...  They traded away their only B grade or above player and only legit starter to the Red Sox for four prospects, three of which immediately became their top prospects in the organization.  Those guys are still a couple years away though.  Looking at the team, they've got nuthin'.

Let me take you around the horn...  There are two catchers that suck and are holding the place for the two minor league prospects that aren't ready yet.  Andrew Vaughn is at first, their best hitter with a .270 average and 17 HRs.  There's a 30 year old journeyman utility guy starting at second on his fourth team in five years, declining numbers over the last four years.  The shortstop is a kid they thought would take the position over, but looks overmatched.  They have no clue at third, right now it's a platoon.  The left fielder is Andrew Benintendi, a 30 year old dude that hit .225 with 20 HRs, a big time prospect at one time looking at his last shot as an everyday player.  Luis Robert is in center right now.  He sorta sucks and they're going to trade him if anyone bites.  Right field is what can be called "a gaping hole" unless you think 34 year old Mike Tauchman, a .241 career hitter with no power, is the answer there.  This isn't even a young roster with upside.  Maybe the kid at short comes around?  Maybe somebody emerges at third?  There's just not much there.  How do they get 12 more wins?  The baseball Gods let them regress to the mean?

The starting pitching is horrible.  Jonathon Cannon is your #1, a guy that would be a #4 almost anywhere else in baseball.  He's going to go 3-14 if he has to pitch against legit #1 starters all year.  33 year old Martin Perez is your #2.  This is his fourth team in four years.  I guess Davis Martin is the #3.  He's on his second year back from Tommy John.  He's 3-11 lifetime.  He might be the opening day starter.  Then you've got some bullshit battling to be the #4/5 starters.  It's not good.

So I've been reading all these baseball writers jumping on Chicago OVER 52.5 with the thought that shitty teams always hit rock bottom and improve.  It makes sense and there is some precedent with 6 of the last 8 teams that won less than 55 improving by a dozen games the next year.  OK... So what if last year wasn't rock bottom?  There was a quote I read from their GM that essentially said "I think we are going to win more games this year, but if we don't don't get mad at me.  We are ready to lose and lose big as we figure out who can play.".  I think these guys are committed to going 2012/2013 Astros on this thing and burn it to the ground.  I think that''s the model, not the 2021 Orioles.  The White Sox don't even have the prospects assembled at AAA to jump start the season with a flicker of hope.  I am going to sit here in the weeds and see if the degenerate gambling community talks themselves into the trend of awful teams improving YTY and can get that number to move up another couple clicks.  If so, I'm jumping on UNDER and rooting against this piece of shit organization backed by a large investment of snowbird dollars.  It's not time to buy yet, but let's keep an eye on it.  Let's get a place in Boca Raton.

     

Nurse the Hate: Super Bowl At The End Of Days

 

I was at a seminar in Germany a couple weeks ago, so I missed gambling on the divisional round and conference championship rounds of the NFL Playoffs.  They have these gross sports betting parlors over there with names like "SportBet" or "BetTek" that sort of look like those old New York OTB shit holes.  I will admit I was interested in having the experience of wandering into one to see if I could successfully find out if A) they had NFL lines available and then B) placing a bet on the Eagles to beat Washington with tangible language barriers in both directions.  My fear would be that I would have left with a Bielefeld -.5 goals over SV Sandhausen frantically trying to find a German streaming service for 3.Liga matches.  "Ich bin Hans Blinker und wir haben heute ein tolles Match für euch in der SchücoArena!" 

It's sort of a drag to be in Germany right now at a professional event.  When issues of trade come up, every person bristles when the United States is the subject and you can feel the eyes on you.  Granted, we have managed to flip the country in the last three weeks into a chaotic pay-to-play oligarchy run by bar napkin strategists that have provided no sense that they have an idea of where they are going or how to get there, so I am on board with the anti-Americanism.  At one point I told people I was Canadian because I didn't want the hassle or embarrassment of admitting I was American.  Pro tip, if you say you are Canadian, tell people you are from Hamilton.  NO ONE says they're from Hamilton so you'll never be fact checked.

I felt sheepish about being American when I traveled out of the country into the gear up for the clearly ginned up and idiotic war with Iraq, but it was more of a "anyone that is intelligent is on the same page, we don't like it either" thing.  American now is essentially an indefensibly stupid and dangerous country filled with people that don't really want to understand the world or embrace reality.  Living in the United States now is like when I lived in a crappy apartment building where I knew I wasn't on the same page as everyone else that lived there, so I just basically used it to watch TV, cook meals, and leave as often as I could.  It's not great when you have to brace yourself to peek at the headlines and see what new terrible thing the various idiots now in charge have done.  I think in the past with regimes I didn't agree with there was a sense that they thought they were fixing problems, whereas with this I see it as the richest people in the world deliberately fucking over poor people so they can somehow be even richer than "richest".  

I had read a book last year called "Travellers In The Third Reich" which is a collection of writing, diary entries and journals of people that visited Germany after the Nazis ascended into power until 1939 when you might have heard things took a turn that dampened tourism.  The similarities between the United States of today and Germany of 1934 are startling.  Spoiler alert, it didn't turn out well for Germany at the end of that run and I don't suspect it will here either.  The same people that jumped on board "the party" for personal gain in the 1930s look a lot like the corporate chameleons rushing in to pay tribute to The Mad King in 2025.  The great news is nobody reads or learns from the past, so we'll all go on this ride together.  Hey, the good news is there is still one more football game to offer a distraction (though the NFL has already removed the "End Racism" messaging in a nod to our apparent new official governmental embracement of pro-racism).  At least we don't have to pretend the players aren't exploited any longer, so there's that.

As I look at this game, I feel the way most fans seem to feel.  Eh.  I'm not sure why I feel that way.  The worm has turned on Kansas City as their continued success has led to an inevitable public backlash.  I got two guys on a text chain that wholeheartedly believe they NFL is manufacturing wins for KC with a coordinated plan using the officials.  When everything around you is a conspiracy theory, I guess it makes sense.  I think the bottom line is with Kansas City is that they have a really good defense, especially in the middle front, and a QB that has an uncanny ability to make plays late.  

I don't want to bet against Mahomes.  All that guy does is win.  But, let's look at things rationally for a second.  Two years ago the Eagles weren't as good as they are now.  They've got a better D line, better receivers and the best running back in football.  Kansas City is clearly not as good.  They have less explosive offensive skill players, less stalwart offensive line, and reduced statistical track record.  So if the line was Philadelphia -1.5 two years ago and now they're even better while KC is worse, why is Philadelphia +1.5 now?  Since week 6, Philadelphia has the #1 defense and #4 offense.  It's clearly the better team.  Am I concerned about Reid outcoaching Siriani?  Yes.  Am I concerned about The Witch?  Also, yes.  Still, I am going to float a small Philadelphia +1.5 bet out there.   

A couple prop bets I like are "shortest touchdown less than 1.5 yards -140".  You've got Tush Push on a run heavy team, so I like that scenario.  In 7 of the last 9 Super Bowls there has been a one yard TD.  Why not this one too?  It's pretty chalky, but with all the pass interference calls in the end zones these days, a first and goal from the one is almost assured.

I'm taking a look at "Saquan Barkley longest run less than 25.5 yards".  Kansas City has only given up six runs of over 25 yards this season.  Of those, three of them were by quarterbacks on broken plays.  The Public likes betting over on totals and props.  I am going to see if this nudges up to 27 or so and fire on it.

Mahomes doesn't run the ball like people perceive that he does, so his total rushing attempts under 6.5 is interesting, but the problem there is if he does a few kneel downs to end a game.  I am also thinking about doing an UNDER on the first half.  These teams tend to come out tight in Super Bowls, and people play conservatively until they feel the ship under their feet.  I'd go UNDER on the game, but the issue with that is if one team runs away with it they just keep their foot on the gas.  It feels like a defensive game, and the Eagles like to run, so that leans under.  I'll drop a little amendment into this column if I decide to go there.

Current Record:  40-29-1 

2025 and Wild Card Weekend

 

I quit my job last week after 18 years.  It was sort of like getting out of an abusive relationship where your partner was always telling you how much you needed them and no one could ever love you as they hit you with a stick.  "You make me sick."  Wack.  "You are worthless."  Wack.  "Why are you making me hit you?"  Wack.  As the sinking ship of local broadcast television goes down, I will not be aboard to try to desperately cling to a lifeboat.  Au revoir.  I have de-boarded to try to pass this Master of Wine exam in June (it's almost impossible) and rely on matters of certainty to provide ample cash flow.  I would like to thank Ohio for legalizing sports gambling and Deshaun Watson for allowing me to easily identify his indifference to playing football as an example of such.  That wise investment in Watson's lack of results has helped give me the freedom to do things I want to do as opposed to being shackled to the poor decision making of others.  2025 is shaping up to be MUCH better than 2024.      

"Wild Card Weekend" is back after last year inexplicably being named "Super Wild Card Weekend" as if adding the word "Super" made it somehow even better.  The Wild Card round is always where the teams that aren't quite that good get exposed.  I'm looking at you 2023 Cleveland Browns.  There are six games.  Two will be really good fight-to-the-death games and the other ones tend to be decided very quickly.  You ever get settled in for a game, chili pot bubbling away, and within two minutes it's obvious who is going to win?  I think that game might be the Buffalo v Denver game.

I see the AFC coming down to some variation of Buffalo v Kansas City v Baltimore.  Denver isn't that good.  Every year there is a team on the rise that sneaks into the playoffs, but isn't quite there yet.  Looking at Denver's last month you have them beating the Chiefs second string, losing to Cincinnati, losing to the Chargers, and beating the Browns at home by one score.  Denver went 1-5 versus Playoff teams.  They beat shitty teams but weren't quite good enough to beat the elite in the league.  That's a big ask for them to go into Buffalo and beat the Bills with a rookie QB making his first playoff start. Buffalo -8.5.  Before the Bills second string losing last week, they were 10-1 in their last 11.  The Bills are good and they'll advance.   

I am getting on Minnesota.  Look, that loss last week does have me consider if The Real Sam Darnold is back.  The Lions, who have no defense to speak of, absolutely destroyed Darnold and his confidence in a real asskicking in what might have been the biggest game of Darnold's life.  As stupid as it sounds, this week against the Rams is actually a lower profile game.  I am assuming this game gets played in Phoenix which won't impact Minnesota at all.  All those NFC North teams only lost to each other.  That's the cream of the crop in the NFC.  It's them and Philly with a big drop after that.  You're telling me that the Rams, distracted all week because THEIR CITY IS ON FIRE, are going to be focused on making a surprise road trip and beating a superior team?  The Vikings don't give a shit where their plane lands.  All they know is the team they're playing isn't as good as the Lions.   Minnesota -2.5 

I heard some crazy stats about teams meeting for a third time where their last game was three weeks or less in the past are 14-2 to the over.  Playing Baltimore to go over is always sound advice.  The only concern is if the Pittsburgh offense shows up.  Russell Wilson is looking exceedingly more like the guy the Broncos dumped and George Pickens seems to be morphing into the classic Pittsburgh mentally deranged diva that gets dumped by the team and soon forgotten.  How many of those guys have they had?  Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burriss, Antonio Brown, Dontae Johnson, Claypool...  It's crazy.  I'll tell you this.  I'd never buy a used car from Mike Tomlin.  The guy knows when to get out of a bad vehicle.  I think Pittsburgh shows more than they did last game, but Lamar is too much to deal with for anyone this year.  Baltimore/Pittsburgh OVER 44.

Quick update.  I hit both of my season win total bets (KC over 11.5/New England under 4.5).  I have very quietly turned things around late this season.  Let's see if I can keep it going.  These playoff lines are dialed in tight.   

Current Record:  38-28-1

Tanking and NFL Final Week Saturday

 

The Cleveland Browns are intentionally tanking.  I know it.  Las Vegas knows it.  The Browns themselves know it.  The line today versus Baltimore is an astounding 20 points.  Even when the Browns went 0-16, they were never an underdog of 20 points.  Quick reminder, this is a team that was talking Playoffs/Super Bowl contention in August.  Yikes.  Things have not gone well.

When you decide to run Bailey Zappe out to start a game after being on your roster for a couple weeks, it tells you one thing.  They are not trying to win.  This is a live tryout to see if they want to bring him in to camp next year as a potential backup or #3.  While it is almost inconceivable that the Ravens lose this game, 20 points is a mind bending number to give an underdog.  Gun to head, I'm taking the Ravens, but I think there's a better way to get at this...

The crux of this game is not only will the Browns be facing a motivated superior team on the road trying to win the conference.  The Browns are approaching this like a preseason game.  In the Browns preseason games, they do not try to win, unlike the Ravens who approach every game like it's the AFC Championship.  Stefanski is always trying to "clean things up".  Ken Dorsey the OC is a goner.  Even if he wanted to call a high variance game and reach deep into the playbook, he can't.  The QB doesn't know all the plays.  I would expect a vanilla gameplan with forced targets to Jeudy and lots and lots and lots of passes to the Tight Ends.  The Browns want to lose and will call a game that appears to be intended to move the ball, but really isn't.  How do you lose?  Don't score.  Browns under 14.5 is what I'm doing, but the under 41.5 isn't bad either if you think the Browns defense plays their hearts out.     

If I win that early game, and the Ravens win easily I will take a look at betting Pittsburgh.  The Public will rush in to bet on Cincinnati if Baltimore wins with the thinking that Pittsburgh will have nothing to play for in that scenario.  I disagree and think that regardless Mike Tomlin is not going to want to roll into the playoffs on a four game losing streak.  I think Pittsburgh plays hard and this turns into a typical AFC North street fight.  Looking to place at Pittsburgh +3.5 or higher... 

Current Record:  34-28-1