Kafka Visits Zuckerberg and NFL Week 16

 

I had all my Meta accounts suspended because the Meta bots decided a joke I made about having to pay for Marvin's two stomach surgeries by becoming a narcotics dealer was me using the platform to sell drugs.  Facebook, which at this point serves almost exclusively as a platform for misinformation, scams, and identity theft, had decided that my attempt at sarcasm was the real problem.  Now, they may or may not be right about that.  However, what I would like to focus on is the hopeless task that awaits any normal person that gets their account disabled.

First, Meta has constructed a perfect loop of "customer service".  When you find out your account has been disabled they give you an opportunity to appeal the decision.  You aren't given a reason for the account being disabled in the first place, so this makes the appeal process VERY difficult.  It's a digital Kafka role playing game where you have to defend yourself for a crime that has not been identified.  When you send the appeal in, you get a screen which says "We'll let you know".  There is no back and forth or any email given.  They will get back to you... or not.

So after a few weeks I had not heard anything.  It wouldn't have mattered to me at all but the band's database is that Facebook page.  It became swiftly evident that it would be hard to let anyone know about our gigs, LPs being released, etc.  This was my motivation to solve the problem.  I will now save you or anyone you know a great deal of time by telling you how to get this done.  First, you have to be persistent.  The only way I could figure out how to interact with the company in a meaningful way was to get my Instagram account verified which would then access a "customer support" feature.  This cost me $15 but I figured it would be worth it.  As far as I can see, this is the one and only way to contact Meta.  They don't even have a phone number.  It's all a bunch of Indian dudes sitting at card tables responding to chat texts.

What I didn't count on was how infuriating the customer support chat is to use.  You first have to get past the bot chat feature.  If you manage to get past that (I did by opening three different reasons for needing to talk to someone), you will be asked through amazingly stupid questions that don't help anything.  Example:  What can I help you with today?  "I can't log in". OK, let's have you log in to see what the problem is.  "I can't log in."  You are not able to log in?  "No". Have you tried logging in with another device?  "yes".  Were you able to log in there?  "No.  I can't log in anywhere."  What is your url?  "I don't know.  I can't log in."  Can you log in to tell me your url?

It goes on like that for about 25 minutes for the first part of the chat regardless of how well you explain the problem in the initial contact.  Then if you have the right guy (it's always an Indian man that seems to be about 26 years old) he will maybe figure out what you are trying to accomplish and the hurdle you face in trying to do so.  It's important to note, many of these guys don't seem to have the ability to put 2+2 together.  It really seems like they're fucking with you.

On one of the chats I had a guy call to tell me to forget about trying to get my account back.  The account was gone.  When I asked to speak to his supervisor, he said he didn't have one.  "You don't have a boss?"  Yes, but I don't know who that is.  "So who instructs you on what to do?"  No one,  We get emails.  "From who?"  I don't know.  "So if I was General Motors and couldn't get into our account to buy a bunch of ads, who would I talk to?  "I don't know.  I'm sure there is somebody."

I finally got some action going when I started a chat saying I wanted to place a five figure advertising buy for the Whiskey Daredevils but couldn't log onto our band account.  Can someone help me log on so I can give you $10,000 in revenue?  THIS got some action.  Within a week I had a fellow who was very pleased with himself who called to tell me the account was active again and he had fixed everything.  Though it had taken 7 weeks, 9 online chats, 5 phone calls, and countless hours scouring the internet to figure out how to do it, I did it.  We now hope to be able to tell you when we are playing gigs again.  In today's world seven weeks is like a decade, so I hope you all remember who we are when that next post hits.

I wish I had spent that time on getting my account back focusing on the NFL.  I took a couple bad losses last week.  The good news is THIS WEEK is a great time to right the ship.  Why?  Because Old Reliable, aka The Cleveland Browns are doing their traditional late season move of starting a player that clearly has no business being a starting NFL player as the QB.  I guess they have this small hope that they get lucky and somehow have stumbled onto the next Tom Brady, but they always find out they have the current Cody Kessler.  I have no fucking idea why they are starting DTR this week as he has already shown that he can't start in the NFL.  Winston can get the ball downfield, beat the Steelers, and set the franchise single game passing record.  DTR sorta sucked at UCLA and gets injured as soon as he takes the field.  Cincinnati is somehow still in the playoff hunt (slimly, but still in).  They should bury the Browns.  I got on this at Cincinnati -7.

Minnesota is good.  They are better than Green Bay.  Last week Green Bay was -3 at Seattle and killed them.  In that game Geno Smith got injured and couldn't come back in the game.  His knee is, in the words of medical professionals, "sorta fucked up".  This week the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings are also -3 at Seattle.  Same spread to a better team with an injured QB?  Minnesota -3.  

Baker Mayfield has an insane record as a road favorite of 13-4 ATS.  I was as stunned as anyone to read that as my most vibrant memories of Mayfield are from when he stupidly played with one arm losing games for the Browns.  The Cowboys have had some recent success but let's be reasonable here.  They beat Carolina and the Giants.  Tampa is a legit "get in the playoffs and maybe win a game" team.  I think they take care of business here.  I'd like it better at 3, but I'll still take Tampa -4.

Current Record:  30-27

Oh Canada and NFL Week 15

 

I went up to Canada this week to pay a visit to Pillitteri Wine to talk about their ice wine and appassimento winemaking techniques, the way one does.  I hadn't been to Canada in years.  It hit me that the last time I traveled through the Buffalo crossing was when Gary was still in the band.  The one (and only) time we went to Canada with Gary was when we played a Friday night gig at the Mohawk and stayed at Marty's place afterwards.  We were going to do Erie the next day, so we had a full day of downtime.  I grew up in Erie so I can say this with a sense of experience.  When faced with a full day of free time in early December, Erie does not present a full menu of opportunities for grown men from Cleveland.  At least in Buffalo we could go take a look at Niagara Falls and maybe kill time in a casino.  

Ken was still working on his degree, so I remember he had planned to study at Marty's house while Leo, Gary and I went out for our mild adventure.  We jumped in the van and drove towards Niagara Falls.  As I'm driving up there I ask the two other guys, "Which side of the Falls should we do?  US or Canada?".  Gary had no opinion, and Leo said "Canada".  I agreed with him as going to another country at least sounded interesting.  "OK, Canada it is!".  This was so long ago you didn't need a passport to make the border cross, just your driver's license, so you could make spur of the moment decisions like that.

We drive up to the border crossing and hand the man in the booth our IDs.  The guy asks, "Have any of you ever been arrested in Canada before?".  No.  "OK, pull up over there and go inside the office."  I've done this border cross a bunch of times and never had this happen before, but whatever.  We walk inside the office and get told to sit in this waiting room area with a small group of other people.  They have our IDs so we aren't going anywhere.  About 15 minutes later a Canadian cop stands at the counter and says "Gary?  Which one of you are Gary?".  

As Gary walks up to the counter the cop immediately starts lambasting him in front of the entire room.  "Did you get arrested in Toronto a few years ago?  DID YOU?  WELL WHY DIDN'T YOU SAY "YES" WHEN THE MAN AT THE BOOTH ASKED IF ANYONE IN THE CAR HAD BEEN ARRESTED IN CANADA BEFORE?".  I mean, he REALLY laid into him.  Everyone in the waiting area was wincing and going "Ohhhhhh" as the dress down continued.  The cop did have a point though.  The even bigger point that I wanted to tell the cop was "Hey, this guy knew he was going to get flagged on this and instead of saying "Guys, we might have a hassle if we try to cross the border.  We should probably stay on the American side." he decided to see if he would skate through.  In his risk/reward analysis he decided that instead of revealing a potential issue to his bandmates, it would be better to flip a coin to see if he would get tossed in a Canadian jail.  This was one of the mounting red flags in the Gary Era of the Daredevils.

Gary gave some sort of unconvincing response to the cop like you'd see of someone that got called in front of a judge in traffic court.  It was a variation of "I thought the lawyer took care of it" and "I didn't know" that no one was buying into, but legally he wasn't on the hook for anything because we all got our licenses back.  I think we got pulled into the office just so they could yell at him in front of a bunch of people for lying at the crossing point.  By the way, we never got the story on how he got arrested and the ensuing legal drama, which would have at least been an interesting story on the drive from Buffalo to Erie.  

I remember a couple of other things from that little day trip.  We went into a casino where Leo and I decided to take our gig money from the night before and play it on red/black on a roulette wheel.  If we won, we'd eat a good seafood meal in Erie.  If we lost, we'd have to get dinner in a gas station.  Leo would choose the table and the time to put the money down, as was our custom.  Leo picked red, it came up red, and we later ate at what was then The Buoy on the Public Dock in Erie.  I ate the scallops.  They were previously frozen and rubbery.  The broccoli was overcooked.  The baked potato was on point though.  

The other thing I remember was going into the Duty Free shop so Gary could spend the last remaining $5 of Canadian currency he had on him.  I swear to Christ he spent 20-25 minutes walking back and forth deciding between a giant Toberlone and a glass maple leaf shaped bottle of syrup.  It got to the point where I was like "Hey man, we have to go.  We are running late.  Why don't you get the smaller Toberlone and the smaller maple syrup for the money so you can have both?  Or if you want something that's only Canadian get the syrup because you can buy a Toberlone anywhere.  Just make a decision...."  Gary, either oblivious or uncaring, paced back and forth between the two shelves running the options in his head making an occasional sighing noise.  In the end, after the excruciating decision making process he got the candy which he munched on contentedly as we drove to get Ken.  

And that was the last time I had been in Canada.

I was able to listen to a bunch of NFL podcasts on the drive back.  That Lake Effect snowstorm hit the Buffalo area, so I drove all the way around Lake Erie to get back via Detroit.  That's a lot of podcast time.  The one thing I kept hearing was how the Saints had not ruled out Derek Carr this week.  This seems at odds with reality as the Carr injury to his wrist was so odd it was being referred to as "career threatening", so I can't imagine why Carr would trot out there to play a pointless game for the 5-8 Saints.  True, it would give them a chance to win if he was healthy.  They were 3-2 after he returned from his previous injury, but let's be reasonable.  He's not playing.  That means that Jake Haener is starting, and the Saints morph back into being one of the worst teams in the NFL.  I'm going to move the line back to under a touchdown and take Washington -6.

As soon as the Browns got dismantled by the Steelers, I knew I wanted to bet Cleveland with the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs keep winning with flukes, crazy luck, and overall good fortune.  How many teams go 8-1 while somehow being 0-9 ATS?  Kansas City's offense is below average.  They just don't score a lot of points.  When you are betting the Browns, you are strapping in for Mr. High Variance himself, Jameis Winston.  He sorta sucked last week, so I'm hoping the pendulum swings back this week.  I took Cleveland +6.5 and I wouldn't be stunned if they won the game outright.  It's also important to note I could also see them losing 31-10.  That's why this is gambling.

I listened to a NY area podcast where I heard two angry guys yelling about the Jets and Giants for about 45 minutes.  Here's a fun fact.  The Giants practiced outside this week, I suppose to prepare for sorta crappy weather expected in New York this weekend.  Tommy Cutlets is starting for the Giants with Drew Lock now out with whatever is wrong with him.  In practice they did a Red Zone drill where it was first team offense v defense.  The offense went 0-17 in trying to score.  I repeat, 0-17.  I'm not optimistic on the Giants chances versus a Ravens team that needs to win badly.  The number is huge, so I'm going to bank on the Ravens coming out fast, putting up a big lead and then grinding out the second half on the ground.  Baltimore first half -9.

Philadelphia might be the best team in the NFC, but 5.5 is a lot of points to give Pittsburgh.  I can recite off all those "Mike Tomlin as an underdog" stats, but if you've read this far you already know that.  This seems like one of those classic Pittsburgh teams where the defense plays like angry dogs and stymies the other team just long enough for the Steelers to score late with a big slow white tight end you've never heard of catching a four yard pass to win.  Pittsburgh +5.5

Season Record:  29-24  

Rothaus Pils and NFL Week 14

 

I ordered a Rothaus Pils from the extensive bottle list.  The doughy waitress stared at me blankly as I did so, her mouth slightly open.  I wondered if she consistently had a dry tongue and if she wondered why.  She said "OK" as she took my order and walked away.  I didn't think she listened to what I said and waited for her to bring me the wrong thing.  Not listening has somehow morphed into the norm.  I can't tell you how often I need to repeat things to people.  I waited and looked at the wall of TVs, all of them playing obscure college sporting events.  

Ten minutes past and the doughy waitress returned.  "Umm what did you want again?".  Normally I would just order it again and accept the situation, but I felt feisty today.  "I knew you weren't listening when I ordered.  Hey, I'm just asking and I'm not assessing blame, but when I ordered did you not know what I was talking about at the time or just forget?".  She stared at me blankly.  We both knew I was definitely assessing blame.  I picked up the paper menu.  "Look.  See this one here?"  I pointed at "Rothaus" on the menu.  "Can you bring me a bottle of that?".  She looked at me with half closed lids.  "uh-huh".  

With the legalization of weed, it's hard to figure out if she was high as fuck, mentally challenged, or just didn't give a fuck.  My gut told me it was "just didn't give a fuck" and that was confirmed when I saw her standing by the bar shooting the shit with some other hillbilly server with a terrible tattoo barbed wire tattoo creeping up his neck.  Her plump gut pushed over the seam of her pants.  The bearded tattoo server guy touched her arm.  Love was in the air.  The Rothaus Pils may or may not arrive. 

I took that opportunity to dive into the NFL lines.  Look, there's one that jumped out at me.  I cannot understand why Arizona is less than a FG favorite to Seattle at home.  The Cardinals lost two weeks ago in a weird game at Seattle.  They are clearly a better team than Seattle overall and have played the second toughest schedule in the league.  It's tough to beat a divisional opponent twice, and the Seahawks are fairly dodgy.  I really like Arizona -2.5 here.   

I am getting the same vibes from Kansas City as that Steelers team that went 11-1 a few years ago but clearly sorta sucked.  I think the wheels are going to fall off the Chiefs.  I also think the Chargers are a team that have entered my "circle of trust".  This seems like they have morphed into one of those textbook Jim Harbaugh teams that plays tough defense, runs the ball, and doesn't beat themselves.  That is essentially what Kansas City is trying to, which is fine, but covering more than a FG is asking too much here.  In their last three, Kansas City has won on the last play versus a shitty Raiders team, a shitty Panthers team, and got their ass beat by Buffalo.  The Chargers are a legit first round playoff team.  I'll take Chargers +4.  

Pittsburgh lost on prime time TV to Cleveland on a weird snowy night.  The Browns made snow angels and celebrated like they won the Super Bowl.  Pittsburgh is 19-1 at home versus the Browns in their last 20 meetings.  Are the Playoff bound Steelers going to get swept by the Browns in the season series by losing at home in December?  No sir, they are not.  Will it be close?  With Jameis, anything is possible.  I'm staying away from the spread.  Pittsburgh money line.

Kirk Cousins is clearly injured.  The Falcons reported him having a right shoulder and right elbow injury, two fairly important body parts when you are trying to throw a ball past vicious thugs trying to kill you and take away the ball.  He's emotionally involved in wanting to play in his return to Minnesota, which I look at as an opportunity.  This Viking team is not an elite team, but they are a solid quarter final playoff team with a very good defense.  The Falcons inability to create a pass rush on Darnold is a good combo with a Viking defense that will pressure Cousins.  It's not a high powered Viking offense, but it's enough to win.  Minnesota is 5-1 at home this year.  Atlanta is soft.  Minnesota money line.   Cousins might not even play the whole game.  I could see Pennix going in for the second half.  Give me Cousins under 245.5 yards passing too.

Current Record:  26-22

Facebook Jail, New Media and NFL Week 13

 

In case why you're wondering why I haven't been pushing out these rock solid gold football picks  on social media, I'm in Facebook jail right now.  I made the grave error of making the joke that I would have to become a c*caine dealer (even now I fear typing the word) to pay for Marvin's latest surgery.  Marvin is one of my basset hounds and continues to eat rocks for those not in the know, and it's about $3000 a pop when he does so, which is great.  Facebook's bots determined I violated community standards as I was attempting to sell illegal narcotics on my Facebook account and then either eliminated or suspended my account.  It's not really clear.

I received an automated email from them stating "Your Facebook account has been suspended. This is because your account, or activity on it, doesn't follow our Community Standards on guns, drugs and other restricted goods.  If you think we suspended your account by mistake, you have 180 days to appeal our decision. If you miss this deadline your account will be permanently disabled."  Normally I wouldn't really give a shit about that as the current Facebook algorithm has decided I am very interested in things I don't follow and am decidedly NOT interested in.  I do know what Sammy Hagar is up to though.  However, the Whiskey Daredevils account is tied to my personal account and therefore that got suspended too.  

Here's yet another reason why Facebook sucks.  When you send in your "appeal", in my case it was noting I clearly wasn't a drug dealer and made a sarcastic joke suggesting that becoming involved in the dangerous drug trade was a serious consideration when absorbing the crippling costs of paying for the care of a basset hound puppy.  When you hit "send" on that, there is no longer any response from the platform.  There is no automated email kickback, place to check your status, nothing.  Facebook also does not have a customer service department, responsive email center, chat bot, or any consumer interface.  It's impossible to even log into Meta Business Suite.  As far as I know, "Facebook" is all running out of Zuckerberg's house and his mobile phone.  If anyone knows that guy, can someone tell him to kick the Whiskey Daredevils account back on?  

The inability to interact with any kind of customer service highlights the dramatic shift in media that has happened in the last 20 years.  There really is no reason for me to have access to customer service.  I'm not the customer.  I'm the product.  Facebook is not selling my content and participation on the platform.  Facebook sells me.  

I work at a TV station.  Broadcast TV is, just now, figuring out that they are Newspapers 10 years ago.  A decade ago when the Cleveland Plain Dealer turned from Monstrous Monolith into an almost empty building in a shockingly swift amount of time, these broadcast TV stations proceeded along in a "can't happen here" mindset.  There are four local broadcast stations in each market, buildings filled with people oblivious to what has happened.  There are entire newsrooms that refer to themselves as "community resources" battling to "win at 5p" that cannot grasp the Facebook principle.  The newscast isn't the product.  The audience is.  As their potential audience slides out of the hourglass, they attempt to adjust with the dexterity of a massive ocean liner.  They are doomed and they don't even know it.  

The company that I work for is tossing as much shit as they can at the wall hoping to stem the tide somehow.  There is a product called Tablo which is a reconfigured digital antennae that provides all the local broadcast stations and a kazillion "freevee" channels, which consist of marginal old programming like Magnum PI with ads awkwardly chopped into the program.  In this market, there are 167 free channels available on Tablo.  I opened it up and my mind almost exploded.  There are channels and programs that you have never heard of, an alternate universe of sorts, where apparently everyone has their own show.  In theory there is enough of an audience to support networks like Comet, Nosey, Powder (better not make the logical joke there, right Zuckerberg?), Dove, and IND.  Who is watching any of these programs and networks?

Even more compelling to me is "Who is selling this?".  There is some poor sad sack of shit sitting in in a car hunched over crafting an email onto his mobile typing something like "This is Greg from Circle TV and let me ask you a question... What would you say if I could get you product placement in the #3 Circle TV show "Coffee, Country and Cody"?  And before you answer, consider this... I also COULD place you into Jessica McGovern's Flour Power holiday episode on Gusto TV.".   These are real shows by the way. It's like you fell asleep and woke up a decade later to discover a total shift in pop culture or you'd fallen into a worm hole into a mirror universe where everything was familiar yet somehow different.  You know... like going to Canada.  

The only thing that all Americans care about en masse is NFL Football.  Of the 25 most watched TV shows last year, 24 of those were NFL Football games.  The 25th was OSU v Michigan.  If you have wandered into my little blog account, somehow finding your way in the wilderness, let's bring the community together once again.  Let's get a couple of winners going.  I'm feeling good after hitting that Raiders +13.5 yesterday AND watching them flame out while doing so.  It's going to be a great Sunday.  Let's get up early, watch a little "Temptation 1" on BuzzrTV, scroll our Facebook feeds (well, some of us anyway), and get on the LA Chargers -1 over Atlanta.  

Atlanta is one of those sorta soft teams in the middle of the pack.  I don't think about the Falcons very often.  It's one of those teams that come by on the ticker and you note "Hmmm.  Falcons are up by three over Carolina." and then think about something else.  The Chargers have won four of their last five, and if their blown draft pick receiver from last year hadn't dropped two key passes, they might have beaten the Ravens last week.  Atlanta has lost two of their last three, their win a close call versus the Cowboys.  I think the Chargers are a playoff team.  They're a "lose in the Wild Card round" playoff team, but a playoff team nonetheless.  Atlanta cannot get pressure on the QB, so I think the Chargers can create some long time consuming drives.  I don't like that Dobbins is out, but I think LA is the right side here.  

I absolutely hate Tennessee.  Will Levis has really cost me some money this year.  His focus has been on throwing touchdowns, but to the opposite team.  Lately he's thrown a touchdown or two over to his own players, so I'm liking the Over 44 in the Washington v Tennessee game.  Washington's defense is just crappy enough to allow around 17-20 to Tennessee, and hopefully that's all we'll need here.  Levis gives that turnover variance that is key to pushing totals over.  Gametime weather partly sunny and mid 40s.   Tennessee/Washington OVER 44.

San Francisco is a mirage, a pale memory of the juggernaut of the last few years.  All of their key players are hurt in some way or another.  Purdy didn't practice Wednesday, so they'll probably shove him out there in the snow with a bunch of drunk Bills fans going crazy screaming expletives at him for a few hours.  The 49ers haven't won a quality game since Oct 10th, which is debatable as that was Seattle.  Meanwhile the Bills have won six in a row, and their last loss was Oct 6th when Josh Allen got concussed.  This game is going to be cold and snowy, so maybe it will be tight.  Buffalo money line.

Give me the Denver Broncos.  The Browns win last TH night over Pittsburgh was their Super Bowl.  Those guys were making snow angels a half hour after the game ended.  Welcome Brownies to your Week 13 letdown game.  As I have stated, I think the Broncos are good.  This will be a problem for the Browns, because they aren't.  I've been watching Browns games a long time.  The personnel changes, but Cleveland never plays well there.  Since 1975, the Browns are 2-14 at Denver.  Why would they win against a playoff hungry Broncos that are 8-2 ATS in their last 10?  Denver -5     

Current Record:  22-22

Thanksgiving Galaxy of Wagers

 

I have always been "blessed" at not having enormous family functions to attend on Thanksgiving.  As a kid, my extended family lived too far away in New York and Chicago from our inconvenient outpost of Erie PA for us to travel to in any scenario that wasn't a Bataan Death March.  Do you want to toss a couple kids into an Allegheny Airlines flight with a transfer in Pittsburgh?  How about seven hours in a VW Beetle with two boys fighting over the dividing line of their side of the car?  My parents didn't and I don't harbor any grudges on that.  Besides the obvious logistical issues, I think one of the primary reasons we never got together was a great generational ignorance of culinary art.  No one in my parent's generation could cook worth a shit.  Right up and down the line, the best cooks in the family (arguably my mother?) would have received a "slightly below average" grade.  If you were looking for a barely seasoned turkey, lumpy mashed potatoes, and half assed side dishes, we could deliver.  The first time I had dinner at a second generation Italian family's house, my head almost exploded.  I didn't know that "seasoning" existed prior to that.

I have had a couple of big Thanksgivings over the years when someone would gamely try to assemble the troops.  I think because everyone had been conditioned by years of low key Thanksgiving, it just never took.  When I hear the office small talk that gets launched when someone makes the mistake of asking about a co-worker's Thanksgiving plans I often audibly let out a "ugghhhhhhh" noise.  "Well Elizabeth got in last night and James thought he could catch the early flight from Midway but he wasn't even able to get on standby, so he won't be in until late tonight.  You know James!  So Susan and I are getting up at 345a to get started on the prep, and I know Mike and the boys are going to do the Turkey Trot... No!  Not the one downtown!  We have one in the town square, but anyway..."  

I guess we've tried.  There was the time Melissa and I flew out to visit The Krustys in Las Vegas during the tail end of The Covid Era.  The plan was pretty good.  We had rented out a big Air BNB and the idea was we would cook at the house and watch football with a stack of ill-advised tickets from a sportsbook in front of us.  We got there on Wednesday late afternoon.  Thanksgiving morning Ken had covid, they had left the condo, and we had essentially flown across North America to sit in a strange house by ourselves to enjoy a Uber Eats Thanksgiving.  

Once again Thanksgiving has returned to its roots, its core essence.  Today will be a low key day focused on the things that you can count on, football gambling and high quality wine.  Tradition must be served, and for me that is The Galaxy of Wagers.  I like to have at least some action on everything that is going off today.  Even better is to have unrelated things intertwined.  I have teasers cutting across NFL/NCAA Football/NCAA Basketball with teams that I know almost nothing about.  I've even got a ton of action on Europa futbol clubs I didn't know existed two days ago.  The absolute most important thing is to create so many moving parts that you look at the scoreboard and have to question "Is this good for me?'.  Right around lunchtime I will be sweating out a Porto/Bilbao Athletic Club parlay while you are considering if you are going to argue with your politically diametrically opposite aligned Uncle.  (Wait until dinner.  It's best there.)  

Allow me to present to you a few ABSOLUTE LOCKS for today's action.  You're welcome.

There has been an avalanche of "smart" money on the Bears over the Lions today.  I can't make any sense of it.  The Bears have lost five straight, two in heartbreaking fashion.  They were double digit underdogs to the Lions, universally regarded as the best team in the NFL right now.  I could type out a stack of trends that show double digit favorites on Thanksgiving (a short week) win 67% of the time.  The idea is that with reduced time to plan it becomes which team has the better players.  That team is the Lions.  The fact that the Lions just keep the foot down on the gas pedal makes me even more comfortable with taking them.  Dan Campbell has the best ATS record of any coach in the NFL.  This is a fast Lions team on turf vs a Bears team that plays half their games on that weird grass at Soldier Field.  Favorites overwhelmingly cover on Thanksgiving.  It all points to the Lions here.  I got down yesterday on the Detroit -9.  

I'll get something going on that absolute piece of shit Giants v Cowboys game in the 4p slot, but it's a weird situation.  The Giants might start an injured Tommy Devito, their third string undrafted QB as opposed to the backup Drew Lock that they paid $5M to be on the roster.  If Devito starts, I'm on Dallas despite Cooper Rush being absolutely terrible.  It's odd that the clearly best QB on either rosters is the one that is questionable to start.  If Lock starts I'll probably play the Giants if the number is big enough, but it's not a case of "taking off the rubber band", but more "sprinkling a little" on the Giants.  If Devito starts, I'm in on Dallas.  If the Giants lose this game in embarrassing fashion, the bloodbath that will occur in New York and national media is going to be uncomfortable to watch.  What a crappy game.

My understanding is that it is going to be cold in Green Bay tonight.  A nice crisp 25 degree night in Wisconsin is not what a team from South Florida is looking for over the holiday.  Miami has been talking shit about how their playoff game last year in freezing Kansas City will have them ready for Green Bay.  I don't know why that would be the case as they got smoked in KC.  People will be concerned about how Tua is 0-4 in this weather and admittedly hates the cold, but for me it's the fact that playing defense is that much tougher in cold weather.  Green Bay is kinda shitty, but a night game at home in crappy weather is a good spot for them.  Green Bay -3   

You want some Europa action?  How about that Memphis State v Tulane game?  There's no reason not to tie in some NCAA Football.  Oh, don't forget to bet against Aiden O'Connell who the Raiders have decided to toss in against the Chiefs on Black Friday.  Who wants a Bilboa Athletic Club/Detroit Lions/Green Bay/Memphis St +14.5 parlay?  Gimme a flier on Porto early!  I've been there and the people will come out hard for their club.  The plan is to have 16-20 active tickets with no clear idea of what happened until the dust settles as the New Mexico v Arizona St basketball game tips off at 1130p.  I'm ready.  I've got Cru Beaujolais and Premier Cru Burgundy and Champagne.  There is no stopping me.  

Current record:  21-21

Johnny Marr and NFL Week 12

 

I just read Johnny Marr's autobiography.  It was odd not to be reading a wine textbook, but I needed a break.  If you aren't down with The Smiths, you obviously were not a 19 year old in the mid 1980s.  Look, I know that Morrissey can be a bit much.  When he was a 22 year old provocateur celibate (wink wink), he was much more interesting than the grumpy old LA queen he slowly morphed into.  That Smiths catalogue is undeniably great, mostly for Johnny Marr's catchy riffs and inventive arrangements.  When I got into them, there was almost no news or information about the band available in the American press.  All I knew was I liked the songs, and if you were having dramatic relationship problems in a way only young adults can, a Smiths record was a great soundtrack.  

I had tickets to see them in 1986 at Public Hall in Cleveland, and I couldn't go.  My mother pulled some kind of power play to jam me up and wouldn't let me take the car.  I was 19, in Columbus, and had $300 to my name, so I didn't have a lot of options.  Even now I remember my mother digging in with the rationale "I might need to use the car" smug with the leverage she had and both of us knowing she wasn't driving anywhere.  Honestly, even now I'm pissed about the incident.  I missed the show, ate the ticket cost, and the Smiths broke up a few weeks later.  I never saw The Smiths.  I still have the ticket I think.

I read the Marr book hoping to get any insight into what made that band work.  Band politics are hard to describe to someone that has never been in a band.  It's like having three girlfriends at once, and at any given time, one of them might be pissed at you.  It's tough if you are in a local band.  I can't imagine what is was like if you were those guys.  Their rise to fame is unthinkable now.  They wrote some songs.  Someone knew someone else, and they drove over to a record label to hand deliver a tape of their first recording.  The little indie label quickly pressed it.  They played a show at the soon to be famous Hacienda club.  12 people came out.  Someone at the BBC, undoubtedly a connection of the small label owner, played the record on one of the nation's four stations.  A couple weeks later because the record had response they go on Top Of The Pops to lip sync their record.  They had a gig the same night at Hacienda, and after that day's TV appearance a thousand people lined up outside to see them.  Bam.  Famous.  That's a different age...

We live in such a fractured media landscape now that people don't even live in the same reality anymore.  I've got a neighbor living in fear of MS-13 street gang members despite the fact that the most Central American thing in this community is the Taco Bell by City Hall.  I work with some women that were very excited about developments on some reality TV show and I'd never heard of the show much less the character they were debating about.  They looked at me like I was some hopelessly out of touch dork and I'm thinking the same thing about them because they didn't know what the Beachland was.  I don't know if life was better when one TV appearance made you famous for your entire life, but those days are over.  The TV station where I work has a bunch of news reporters that I couldn't name if my life depended on it, and a couple decades ago they would have been bona fide local celebs.  It's a different age.

By the way, I still don't understand why the Smiths broke up.  Marr spends the book talking about how he was the guy that was tasked with writing the music and handling the nuts and bolts of band life.  Then suddenly he says a lawyer shows up and claims to be the band's lawyer and he didn't know anything about it, which seem sort of strange since you're the main guy and people can't just show up and tell you "I'm your lawyer now".  That whole portion of the book goes like this.  "I had to handle everything which was fine because I was the only one that knew what to do.  I was writing our new album and focused on that and then this guy claims to be our lawyer shows up with documents and I just signed them without really reading them and then I got 40% of the money and Morrissey got 40% and the two other guys were pissed.  We left the little label that made us famous and went to a major label and then the little label called pissed off because no one told them we were leaving.  I was like "I'm as surprised as you are" and then we went on this tour that went great and I read in the paper when I got home that I had left the band.  The band broke up and I was like, what happened?".   Clear as mud.  Now I'll have to trudge through Morrissey's book.  Dammit.

I'll tell you this.  When I read that Morrissey book I will do so with the NFL games on.  The weather is going to be shitty and it's a perfect scenario to read a snotty mopey Brit settle some old scores while I watch the Raiders get their dicks pounded into the dirt yet again.  I have some concerns about how the favorites have been routinely covering games this year.  The sports books tend to have their Redemption Weeks and they are a savage comeuppance.  I don't want to stare with an uncomprehending gaze as Gardinar Minshew tosses a meaningless TD to some backup tight end to sneak inside the spread.  However, I cannot and will not bet with the Raiders.  That team is such a shit show and Antonio Pierce is coaching with the erratic style of a Dead Man Walking.  He should have never been a head coach in the first place and he knows these are his last weeks striding around with that mantle.  I think Sean Payton knows that for the Broncos to make the playoffs, they need to win all the games they are "supposed to" win.  I know I am buying high on the Broncos, but I'll bet against the late season Raiders when given the chance.  That line is BEGGING to be teased down, which concerns me...  Denver -6

Here's a quick handicap for you.  I don't think Seattle is any good.  I think Arizona is the best team in the NFC West.  I am going to take the better team.  Arizona -1.  People still think that Seattle has this tremendous home field advantage.  That died with the Legion of Boom fading into the memory banks.  Geno is 3-10 ATS in his last 13 starts.  How's that?  Arizona -1.    

In the spirit of the upcoming Galaxy of Wagers on Thanksgiving, let's make a nice underdog teaser.  Generally what I am looking for is low variance opponents with a good defense on the underdog side to allow the team to hang around in the fourth quarter.  Minnesota is 8-2, keeps winning, but Sam Darnold has very quietly returned to being the pedestrian QB he's been since he came into the league.  The Bears have a good defense, and have employed a quick pass/high efficiency plan to try and get Caleb Williams to at least sort of look like a franchise QB.  Every talking head I have seen likes Minnesota this week.  Give me the Bears.  New England won't win in Miami this week because they almost never do.  The Dolphins like to roast the opponent in the sun while they stand around on the shade side of the stadium.  77 and sunny this Sunday according to Accuweather Megacast.  New England has been playing hard.  They're just not very good.  I am looking at Miami money line and New England with the points.  Chicago +10/New England +13.5.  

Current record:  19-19

Chicken Nugget Wars and NFL Week 11

 

I haven't spent much time with Leo in the van lately, so conversation on a three hour drive was bound to provide revelations of some kind.  We passed a bunch of billboards in the greater Erie area all advertising various chicken nugget combinations.  I'm not sure why the chicken nugget market is so contested in NW Pennsylvania, but some joint called "Mavericks" inside Trucker's World had a billboard that appeared to advertise an enormous bucket of overflowing nuggets, like a paint bucket that you would put on your dash board and just gnaw through as you knocked down the miles.  Sheetz, not to be outdone, countered with a product that seemed to combine the words "Shit" and "Nuggets" in their demand you pull over and enjoy an overflowing container of "Schnuggets".  This got the gears rolling inside the van as it jostled Leo's memory of a spontaneous dish he had created using tuna fish and Skittles.  I guess he melted down the Skittles somehow and that became a glaze or something?  I don't know.  My stomach did a flip flop even thinking about it.  He contended that "People loved it", though he did also admit being "stoned as fuck" during the creation and serving of the aforementioned dish.  

The NW Pennsylvania Chicken Nugget Wars drew us in.  Our thought was why stop at a bucket of nuggets?  Why create limits in the condiments?  This might be a great time for Mephisto's, Leo's magician themed dream restaurant concept, to strike while the market is hot.  May we present NW Pennsylvania's next "it" food... chocolate chicken nuggets.  There is a slight disagreement in how we present this next sure-fire food craze.  My vision is a paper box with 18-24 deep fried nuggets that houses a "sauce caddy" of three different chocolate dipping sauces (milk chocolate, dark chocolate and white chocolate).  A typical takeout order at Mephisto's would sound like "Gimme a 24 piece chocolate chicken nugget box with extra white chocolate dipping sauce".  

Leo's vision is the nuggets are pre-cooked and then encased in chocolate like a hard candy shell.  The downside to this is you'll have chicken at room temperature for extended periods, but we'll pump them so full of preservatives it's unlikely any bacteria could take root in the nugget.  Note, I said "unlikely", not "guaranteed".  The upside to this method is that a vast array of secondary condiments can be baked in like "Chocolate Spicy Curry Chicken Nugget" and "Jamaican Jerk White Chocolate Chicken Nugget".  Obviously, this is going to upend the chicken nugget landscape of Northwest Pennsylvania as soon as that first Mephisto's inevitably opens up off a Greater Erie PA turnpike exit.  The thought is that is going to be hugely successful, but it should also be noted that Leo was "high as fuck".  The key is to remember Mephisto's motto.  Mephisto's, it's anything you want it to be.

Buffalo is clearly embracing the Mephisto's lifestyle as everywhere in our hotel people were decked out in Bills gear.  This is a huge Sunday for Bills fans as The Witch comes to town, and the people really feel like THIS TIME they've got Mahomes number.  Look, the Bills are probably just as good as the Chiefs and they will be sky high for this game.  This is exactly the type of game Buffalo wins, a home game in season against the team that will probably knock them out of the playoffs yet again.  However, if you are going to offer me the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs with +2.5 AND give me +112 juice, I'm in.  Kansas City +2.5.

Every single talking head I have heard this week has confidently said "take the Browns".  When they zig, I zag.  Why the Browns are favored over ANYONE on the road, I have no idea.  There is an idea floating around that Jameis Winston is going to be electric in some sort of homecoming in New Orleans, which I can't imagine he has any axe to grind there.  It's hard to justify why either team will win.  The Saints really suck in all phases, but yet so do the Browns.  Winston is the great variable here.  In his two starts, he got lucky when Baltimore dropped two sure INTs.  San Diego didn't drop those and rolled easily.  I think the key is we have seen that Winston will create turnover potential, and the Browns aren't good enough to overcome that.  New Orleans +1.5    

Two things happen every single NFL season.  The Browns go in with big expectations and then fall apart.  Conversely, every single season the Steelers are finally projected to have a losing season.  Then, somehow The Steelers win 10 games with some bullshit patchwork offense and solid defense.  Check and check.  Steelers v Ravens is almost always a one score game.  What no one is talking about is Pittsburgh has beaten Baltimore in 7 of the last 8 meetings.  They know how to scheme Lamar.  Give me Pittsburgh at home with points.  I think Pittsburgh is the sleeper team in the AFC.  Pittsburgh +3.5 

There is something perversely fun in rooting against the Jets and Raiders.  They both go into the year with a bunch of insane hype despite obvious massive flaws in their team design and competence levels of their front offices.  I am going to tease both of them today and take Indianapolis +10.5 over the Jets and Miami -1.5 over the Raiders and aggressively hope for the continued failure of both franchises melted together like a chocolate chicken nugget.

Season Record:  16-18