Friday, October 24, 2008

Nurse the Hate: Hate Your Bookie

This weekend might be the first horrible rainy weekend of the Fall, and you know what that means…action and lots of it. There are quite a few plays I like this weekend, so here’s where I’m leaning on a Friday afternoon.

This weekend the big game in these parts is the Penn State v Ohio State game where the winner will probably receive the honor of getting pounded by USC in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. I really like Penn State. A lot. 5 units a lot. Here’s why…Ohio State has shown in games against Florida, LSU, Michigan, and USC that that vaunted defense of theirs is very suspect against a spread offense filled with NFL caliber athletes. That’s exactly what Penn State brings to the table. Need more? Penn State is 6-1 ATS this year. Ohio State? Try 2-5. Get on the Shittany Lions… I hate to bet on Notre Dame. They are overexposed, and on top of that they somehow get less with more each and every season. Despite that, they face a really terrible Washington University team. I have seen these guys play twice, and they really blow. The added drama is they have Ty Willingham as coach (one of the many old ND coaches that was supposed to bring them back to glory but didn’t). Washington will fire Willingham at the end of the year for one main reason. He doesn’t know what he’s doing. Not knowing what he’s doing is going to be a factor tomorrow. Take the Irish -10… I am going to keep going with Alabama until they show me a reason not to. They take on the always reliable “choke on the big game” Tennessee Vols this weekend at Tennessee. That Tennessee is only getting five seems like a trap game to me. The Vols are 3-4 SU and ATS. However, Bama is undefeated and 3-0 ATS on the road. They even killed these guys 41-17 last year. Despite the feeling it’s a trick, I’m going Bama for the win and cover.

On Sunday I plan on getting down in the bunker with my giant HD and NFL Sunday ticket and getting after it. As we have learned about the NFL, you must bet against all logic and reason. OK, ready?... Take the Cleveland Browns +7. Yes, I realize that the Browns really suck, and never play well on the road. I am also aware they suspended Kellen Winslow for talking about some strange infection on his balls. Despite that, Jacksonville never really blows anyone out. Take the points and hope for the back door cover…The Miami Dolphins +1.5 vs Buffalo. Buffalo is 5-1, and looks like the class of the AFC East. I used to be a Bills season ticket holder. They never seem to play well in Miami. I don’t know if it’s the weather or what, but the Bills are always flat in southern Florida. This looks like a classic NFL mini upset. Take the Fish on the money line…Take a flier on the Carolina/Az over 43. Arizona is 11-4 on the over in their last 15.


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