Saturday, October 1, 2011

Nurse the Hate: Rainy Saturday Action




You know it is a rainy and grim morning when the first thing I focus on is the Air Force v Navy game. I have rather mixed feelings about betting on an Armed Service Academy after the disaster with Army last week. (Army managed zero completions against Ball State last Saturday. I am fairly certain Ball State didn't run out Revis and Charles Woodson to play corner either. How is that even possible?) However, let's shake that off. When it is shitty Navy vs shitty Air Force, it is worth a look. Air Force is 1-10 in their last 11 vs Navy. That's hard to believe as both of those team generally blow. Even more noteworthy Air Force's last road win over Navy was in 1997. That's a long time ago. Elton John's "Candle In the Wind" was the #1 song. "Two Guys, A Girl, and a Pizza Place" was a show television executives thought would work. 9-11 was 4 years away. Like I said, that was a long time ago. I am guessing that if Air Force hasn't won at Navy since then, they won't do it today either, especially with four defensive starters hurt. Take Navy -3.

I am continuing with my quest to bet against the University of Akron football team at every opportunity. Akron won last week, in a game that offered no line. To put that in perspective, you can get a line on the Miss Universe pageant or who is going to win Dancing With the Stars. You can bet on ANYTHING, yet that game was such a joke last week even Vegas wouldn't throw a line out. That is why I am so excited to see Eastern Michigan -8.5 against Akron today. Eastern Michigan has the marketing tag line of "Education First". I hope it's "Football Second". I think even "Football Third" will be enough to cover 8.5. Eastern Michigan -8.5.

Bowling Green gets to play West Virginia today after WVU got knocked around by LSU on national TV last week. This thing could play out two ways. It could be the "Let's beat the crap out of the MAC team to take our frustration out on last week's loss". It could also be "Let's not focus on this week's team we are taking too lightly and instead talk about what the hell happened last week". That's what I think will happen. It's Bowling Green? Who pays attention to Bowling Green? It's a flat campus outside Toledo with the architectural charm of 1952 Leipzig Germany. It's everyone's "safety school" in Ohio. "Yeah man, I hope I get into OSU, but if I don't I know I'm in at BG. I could live with Randy and shit." However, Bowling Green has a sneaky good football team. Bowling Green is 3-1 with a one point loss to Wyoming. Will they beat West Virginia? No way. But 19 points is way too many. Take Bowling Green +19.

I am thinking about taking Kent +16.5. This goes against one of the cardinal rules of gambling, Thou Shalt Never Take Kent State On Thy Road. I think the Pilgrims wrote that. I don't remember. I went to Kent, and we didn't cover a lot of stuff like that. I do know this though. Kent is at Ohio University, and that's not exactly a real juggernaut football powerhouse either. But Kent is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight vs. Ohio. Kent is also 5-0 in their last 5 in Athens. I hear the powerful echo voice in my head saying "Noooooo!!!!", but those trends are hard to ignore.

The books have the Phillies with Roy Halladay at -215 to make the price so high you won't risk it. A couple things to consider. Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals starter, has been back to being "Kyle Lohse" after a early season stint as Steve Carlton. He is very hittable right now. Roy Halladay, on the other hand, is a fucking machine. In an awful outing he gives up 4. That is if he has no control or velocity. He is an unfeeling strike machine. So ask yourself this... Can the Phillies score five off of Lohse and a dodgy Cards bullpen? I think they can. Phillies at (gulp) -215.

1 Comments:

At October 1, 2011 at 5:41:00 PM EDT , Blogger Greg Miller said...

I am so furious at the Armed Services right now, I don't know what to say.

 

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